Is Welker worth $10 million

[andrewgarrr]

So Vollmer and Talib, 2 guys who have a history of injuries is more important the the biggest provider of offensive production?

Talib is better then what the Patriots have at CB but he hasn't played an entire season without being injured for periods of time. Where was Talib when the Pats needed him most? On the bench hurt...again!

Hernandez and Edelman can't play the slot and provide the production Welker does. Hernandez drops more then welker and Edelman too. Edelman is injury prone, Hernandez has been to. Neither one of these two can run the routes and get open like Welker does. Matter of fact Edelman just needs to go. Use his money on keeping Welker. Edelman doesn't provide anything for this team. He has a ton of heart, but not talent.

Vereen? He missed a year due to injury and didn't play a bunch this season. You want him to take Welkers position? Seriously??

Yup. No one person or group of persons can match Welker's past production. But I think sacrificing some of that production at slot receiver for enhancements in the secondary, offensive line continuity, and ability to 'take the top off the defense' are more important qualities. I'd love to have Welker. I just can't agree that he's worth $10 million.

If the Patriots are comfortable with Vollmer and Talib's injury history and commensurately reward these players with long-term contracts, than I am also comfortable with it. However, I did undervalue the injury aspect. Thanks for bringing that up.

Edelman brings additional value as a special teams player. If Welker is resigned, I do not want him returning punts. I think those additional plays hindered his offensive performance in the recent loss.

 

[naF staP]

Who wouldn't want a player like welker on their team?

I'm pretty sure this guy want welker on his team!

But what does he matter?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

If Welker is resigned, I do not want him returning punts. I think those additional plays hindered his offensive performance in the recent loss.

Welker returning punts had absolutely nothing to do with him and his "performance" on O during the loss. He returns kicks all the time and all of a sudden it hindered him?

 

[naF staP]

Yup. No one person or group of persons can match Welker's past production. But I think sacrificing some of that production at slot receiver for enhancements in the secondary, offensive line continuity, and ability to 'take the top off the defense' are more important qualities. I'd love to have Welker. I just can't agree that he's worth $10 million.

If the Patriots are comfortable with Vollmer and Talib's injury history and commensurately reward these players with long-term contracts, than I am also comfortable with it. However, I did undervalue the injury aspect. Thanks for bringing that up.

Edelman brings additional value as a special teams player. If Welker is resigned, I do not want him returning punts. I think those additional plays hindered his offensive performance in the recent loss.

Good post. I agree with special teams, Welker doesn't need to be doing returns. Won't they have Demps next season for returns? I'm curious to see him play.

As for the deep threat, It will be much more effective for this offense if Welker is here. Don't know if you seen my previous post about this, if not and you are intested in seeing my view on this then please go back a few pages and read it. I'm to tired tonight to explain it again, lol!

Long story short, Keep Welker, add a legit deep threat, Lloyd as your middle field receiver and Gronk/Hernandez are bonus. This spreads out the defense (just like it did when Moss was there) and it opens up the entire field including the run game!! Defenses cant cover the entire field. All that is needed is that legit deep threat! Then the Patriots can get away with the running core they have.

 

[naF staP]

Welker returning punts had absolutely nothing to do with him and his "performance" on O during the loss. He returns kicks all the time and all of a sudden it hindered him?

I hold my breath every time he is back there to return a punt. I would really hate to see him get hurt when there are others who can do this. Plus, I don't think he likes to do it, he probably has the same thoughts about it as I do. I remember the BB doc on NFL network where Welker and BB joke around about it. Welker tells him someone else can have that position, lol!

 

[PatsSweFan]

For me Welker should be target 100 times, 70 catches 850yds...and mix up with more deep and outside stuff. So say if our offense would change game plan, and have those numbers as a goal with Welker what money should he get?
And second question will any other team give Welker 10m???

 

[DocHoliday]

You almost got to keep Welker just so that he doesnt go to Denver!

 

[ivanvamp]

I'm not saying Hernandez is god, but he returned from a high ankle sprain in the same season and clearly was never close to 100%. Bottom line is, Hernandez is locked up through 2020, is younger than Welker by 11 years. They have hitched their wagon to him, so whether Welker is better right now is irrelevant. Hernandez is a Patriot for a long time, and you can't deny the overlap in their talents.

Hernandez is signed to a reasonable contract. He would be a very valuable trade commodity if the Pats wanted to move in a different direction.

I'm not saying they should trade him, but simply that they could, probably rather easily, and get a significant return for him.

Hernandez and a 2014 draft pick for Larry Fitzgerald. Promote Ballard and draft a TE. The WR corps becomes:

WR Fitzgerald, Welker, Lloyd, Edelman
TE Gronkowski, Ballard, Hooman, rookie

That would be....ridiculously good. Fitzgerald is much, much, much better than Hernandez (hence why we'd need to add a draft pick to get him).

 

[Bhelmet]

It is not about how many balls Wes drops - it is ALL about the timing of the drops. Regular season - who really cares after all, I can only name a couple. In the big moment - that is when you have to make the grabs - especially on good throws. Wes makes crazy catches at times - but in the big games he is better remembered for his drops. He drives me nuts. We have had plenty of games where if he did not play, we would not have won. As someone else pointed out Welker misses few games. I, personally, do not want to pay him much, but I am not going to scream and shout if he does get paid.

 

[Ivan]

Agreed! He is a boundary receiver. We need that desperately with all the TE's on the roster. Wes is a great piece for this offense but if we were to move on, I would be fine with it. They might actually think about running it again!

3 yrs 8 mil for welkah!

This. And 1 year 2.5 million for Brady when his deal is up.

 

[Brady2Moss]

Hernandez is signed to a reasonable contract. He would be a very valuable trade commodity if the Pats wanted to move in a different direction.

I'm not saying they should trade him, but simply that they could, probably rather easily, and get a significant return for him.

Hernandez and a 2014 draft pick for Larry Fitzgerald. Promote Ballard and draft a TE. The WR corps becomes:

WR Fitzgerald, Welker, Lloyd, Edelman
TE Gronkowski, Ballard, Hooman, rookie

That would be....ridiculously good. Fitzgerald is much, much, much better than Hernandez (hence why we'd need to add a draft pick to get him).

I doubt Fitzgerald is happening all his bonus money left is accelerated to this year and next year I believe, his cap hit would probably be 30 million it just is not happening.

 

[PatsFan2]

This is an honest question do you guys feel he is worth that much money, not in a vacuum, but given our current cap space of 20 million.

Its going to cost 8-10 million to keep Welker, and that means the offense that has scored 21, 17, and 13 (notice the downward trend!) in our last 3 playoff losses returns largely the same unless we draft a stud rolleyes: ).

At some point do we not need to change what we do as an offense it clearly does not work in the playoffs against good teams?

Great post people talk about the Greatest Offense in NFL history *Ahem* not in the playoffs or SB. Seriously if Wes wants more than the Patriots think he's worth se-ya latta. As Great as Wes is in a short area he has limitations. Based on loyalty and toughness he's worth 10 mill a year and not a penny more...2 years 20 Mill for Wes. Then we try to ink Bowe or Jennings to a Four year contract both are better than Welker long trem. Jennings will be 30 by the start of the season and Bowe will trun 29...these are the guys you mortgage the farm for. Either one solves the N.E. Patriots problem WR problem.

 

[Brady2Moss]

Great post people talk about the Greatest Offense in NFL history *Ahem* not in the playoffs or SB. Seriously if Wes wants more than the Patriots think he's worth se-ya latta. As Great as Wes is in a short area he has limitations. Based on loyalty and toughness he's worth 10 mill a year and not a penny more...2 years 20 Mill for Wes. Then we try to ink Bowe or Jennings to a Four year contract both are better than Welker long trem. Jennings will be 30 by the start of the season and Bowe will trun 29...these are the guys you mortgage the farm for. Either one solves the N.E. Patriots problem WR problem.

And then you have no RT or CB Welker + Jennings or Bowe takes up all your capspace its one or the other. And I prefer the other Bowe is the answer. Brady can't throw accurately deep anymore so Bowe is the next best thing he can catch it 15-25 yards down field and he's big and physical. Jennings is 5'11 sick of schrimps

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Why the heck would anyone want to trade Hernandez? He is a great player. I wouldn't be surprised if he had surgery on his ankle after the season and has been been playing through significant pain. Find me another 23 year-old with his talent and dedication at either the WR or TE position that doesn't cost a zillion dollars or a ton of draft picks to trade up.

It's not like he tweaked a hamstring like Glass-I Dowling; Edelman fell into his leg and it looked pretty gruesome. I really thought he'd be IR'd.

The Pats were right in identifying Gronkowski and Hernandez as the core players in their offense to build around. Let's hope that this string of injuries over the last couple of years were just back luck; both players are very tough and work extremely hard, so it's not like it's a case of conditioning. They are also built like rocks and should be able to withstand an NFL career without being banged up every game.

I'll say it again, I love Welker and think he's one of the best Patriots of all-time, but when teams successfully take away the middle of the field (to force outside routes) or funnel everyone to the middle of the field (since there is no real outside threat), Welker essentially serves the same function as Gronkowski and Hernandez, along with some other short-mid pass role players.

If the Patriots could bring in a Vincent Jackson/Dwayne Bowe type of outside threat, not only does it significantly allow the Patriots to better scheme against these defenses, but it also makes Lloyd one of the best #2 receivers in the league. Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski- all of these guys are great but never draw the opponent's #1 cornerback. If you had a guy like Bowe on the outside, Lloyd is single covered by the team's #2 most of the game, unless they want to bring over another safety and get eaten alive by the tight ends.

There's no question in my mind that despite the Patriots better balance of run/pass, they are not a balanced team on offense. "Small ball" is not balanced, and you need to get chunks of yards against good defenses, not just a bunch of 6-yard completions, as those will inevitably run out. A #1 receiver, even in the second tier (I mean, they don't need a guy like Fitzgerald or C Johnson) would make this offense much, much better.

 

[deters]

$10 mill a year for Wes f'n Welker??

aahahahahaahahaha. Hell no he isn't worth that and if we offered that deal we'd be morons.

 

[naF staP]

It's amazing, prior to the season there were thread about getting rid of Edelman and threads saying Edelman is on the bubble but now people want him to take over for the most productive player on the team! Are you serious? Edelman can't stay healthy. Edelman can't get the seperation Welker does. Edelman drops more passes then Welker. Edelman can not adjust and catch a deep ball. And the biggie... Edelman causes no fear to defenses. If you want to keep him then move him back to CB but please don't think he can provide even half the offense Welker does. Thats foolish talk.

Look at Welkers numbers! He isn't worth big bucks? I wouldn't pay him $10 million but I would pay him 2 years, $8 million per. Heck, maybe $9 million per, based on the fact that it scares me to death that Edelman might be the person to take over for him.

 

[Brady2Moss]

It's amazing, prior to the season there were thread about getting rid of Edelman and threads saying Edelman is on the bubble but now people want him to take over for the most productive player on the team! Are you serious? Edelman can't stay healthy. Edelman can't get the seperation Welker does. Edelman drops more passes then Welker. Edelman can not adjust and catch a deep ball. And the biggie... Edelman causes no fear to defenses. If you want to keep him then move him back to CB but please don't think he can provide even half the offense Welker does. Thats foolish talk.

Look at Welkers numbers! He isn't worth big bucks? I wouldn't pay him $10 million but I would pay him 2 years, $8 million per. Heck, maybe $9 million per, based on the fact that it scares me to death that Edelman might be the person to take over for him.

I don't want us relying on Edelman either I want the offense to change to a true 2 tight end system with 2 outside threats. Edelman can be on the team as gravy for some slot receptions on 3rd down until he breaks a nail.

8-9 million you can go get Dwayne Bowe probably with extra cap flexibility because it'll be a 4-5 year deal.

 

[goheels22002]

1.) Welker's franchise number is about $11 million, not $10 million

2.) If the Patriots stop screwing around with contracts and start approaching their best players with better negotiating goals than "We've got to win this!", they'll be better off in the future, and they would have been able to get away with paying both Mankins and Welker less money on longterm deals

3.) Welker is more than worth the money. The question should be whether or not the Patriots will be smart enough to figure that out.

The dilemma is that the cap is $122 million for 2013, and Brady gobbles up $21.8 million, Vince Wilfork $10.5 million and if the tag for Welker is $11 million, they have 30% of their cap space tied up in three guys.

In several ways, saving $2 million or $3 million on Welker's deal is critical to the depth of the team next year and for the length of Welker's deal. Three years at $8 million is preferable to one year at $11 million for Welker. If the Patriots can't hold the line in these cases, they slide closer to the cap hell that made Philadelphia and the NY Jets non-competitive.

This is not an easy situation. I doubt Vince restructures and I do not see how Brady can restructure because at some point he has to get paid what they've agreed to.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I don't want us relying on Edelman either I want the offense to change to a true 2 tight end system with 2 outside threats. Edelman can be on the team as gravy for some slot receptions on 3rd down until he breaks a nail.

8-9 million you can go get Dwayne Bowe probably with extra cap flexibility because it'll be a 4-5 year deal.

Not just Edelman. It isn't like you need to take 175 targets (or whatever it is), approximately 10 targets a game and find a guy who will take all those on. Spread out an additional 10 targets a game to Gronknandezballard, Vereen, Lloyd, Edelman, and potentially a new #1 receiver. By using the players you already have, you may be able to get almost as much production, and if you get a real #1, you could get more.

 

[Sciz]

Hernandez is signed to a reasonable contract. He would be a very valuable trade commodity if the Pats wanted to move in a different direction.

I'm not saying they should trade him, but simply that they could, probably rather easily, and get a significant return for him.

The Pats would have to put the remaining $10M of Hernandez' signing bonus on next year's cap if they trade him. Not happening.

And why the heck would you want to get rid of the second biggest matchup nightmare at TE in the NFL?