Is Welker worth $10 million

[Brady2Moss]

This is an honest question do you guys feel he is worth that much money, not in a vacuum, but given our current cap space of 20 million.

Its going to cost 8-10 million to keep Welker, and that means the offense that has scored 21, 17, and 13 (notice the downward trend!) in our last 3 playoff losses returns largely the same unless we draft a stud rolleyes: ).

At some point do we not need to change what we do as an offense it clearly does not work in the playoffs against good teams?

 

[coolguy]

2 years for 10 million-yes
4-5 years for 35 million-no

 

[ctpatsfan77]

This is an honest question do you guys feel he is worth that much money, not in a vacuum, but given our current cap space of 20 million.

Welker is not the problem.

Two years at $8M per or so? Sure.

 

[Brady2Moss]

2 years for 10 million-yes
4-5 years for 35 million-no

So in your opinion the offense is ok in the playoffs then? I just feel like this offense is not good enough to win big games. Maybe it is when Gronkowskis back but he gets hurt a lot whether its a freak thing or not he isn't there.

 

[Brady2Moss]

Welker is not the problem.

Two years at $8M per or so? Sure.

But is he a solution

 

[hovis]

This is an honest question do you guys feel he is worth that much money, not in a vacuum, but given our current cap space of 20 million.

Its going to cost 8-10 million to keep Welker, and that means the offense that has scored 21, 17, and 13 (notice the downward trend!) in our last 3 playoff losses returns largely the same unless we draft a stud rolleyes: ).

At some point do we not need to change what we do as an offense it clearly does not work in the playoffs against good teams?

His market value is probably more in the 10-12 million range. I personally would rather invest the majority of funds into the OL and defensive veterans, knowing that the Patriots offense would slip from #1 of all time to #5 in the league, with the expectation that the D would go from Top 20 to Top 7. But, I understand folks that would rather continue fielding an offense first squad. If you want that type of team you need Welker.

 

[Marqui]

10 mil is way too much for me. I'd rather sign someone like Amendola for cheaper and use the money saved on defense.

 

[Brady2Moss]

10 mil is way too much for me. I'd rather sign someone like Amendola for cheaper and use the money saved on defense.

I think I read a report that the Rams would franchise Amendola. Either way I think the biggest problem is the concept of the slot receiver in a 2 tight end offense, it would work better if we had 2 outside guys and the tight ends.

Given the current construction with 2 tight ends and a slot guy who are our 3 main options all working the middle of the field defenses clog the middle. This helps not only against the pass, but against the run since so many bodies are around the line of scrimmage.

Now 2 outside guys (Lloyd and a true do it all receiver like Bowe) would alleviate some of this clogging. Lloyd sucks but its hard to imagine us replacing him and getting a true number 1.

 

[Ring 6]

His market value is probably more in the 10-12 million range. I personally would rather invest the majority of funds into the OL and defensive veterans, knowing that the Patriots offense would slip from #1 of all time to #5 in the league, with the expectation that the D would go from Top 20 to Top 7. But, I understand folks that would rather continue fielding an offense first squad. If you want that type of team you need Welker.

You are placing a lot of value in the improvement you think will come from the what is left of 7% of the cap after you replace Welker. One player at $5mill isn't elevating an entire defense, AND adding to the OL.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

10 mil is way too much for me. I'd rather sign someone like Amendola for cheaper and use the money saved on defense.

I really think that Brian Hartline would be a good signing if we let Welker walk. He's terribly underrated. Good hands, pure outside target, runs the sickest comeback routes in the NFL. He, Lloyd, Edelman, and one of Wheaton/Patton would be a smooth transition into the post-Welker era.

 

[Ring 6]

10 mil is way too much for me. I'd rather sign someone like Amendola for cheaper and use the money saved on defense.

So spend 8mill on a lesser player who has missed 20 of his teams last 32 games so you can sprend 2 mill on defense? Really?

 

[Boomer B]

I'm a Welker fan but I don't think he should be the main focus of this offense going forward. I'd like to see Welker with 70 - 80 catches, not 110 catches. As Brady gets older we need to take the pressure off him. More running which will open up play action and for that we need an outside WR who can get down field. If i'm Belichick i'd offer Welker 3 years at $21 million.

 

[Ring 6]

Welker should be brought back. His position is the center of the schemes that have resulted in one of the best offenses in NFL history.
If he is let walk, he will not be replaced. He is too special and unique. The offense will change.
That said, the offense has Tom Brady, so it will adapt without Welker. Gronk and Hernandez already have large enough roles that you can't really expand them.
I think the evolution would be to add another outside receiver, kind of a better version of what Tate was supposed to be, add a true '#3' kind of guy who plays 25 snaps a game, and use the RBs more in the passing game
But that is just one way to go.
The advantages I see to this approach is that we become more varied, and also are not an offense that teams are already prepared for, having seen it for years.
The downside of course, is that change for change sake when you are at the top of the heap, is change for the worse.
The best move is to bring Welker back, but if he is let go, there are many ways to rebuild the offense and with Brady at the helm it will succeed. But the central scheme and play structure of the offense leaves with Welker.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm a Welker fan but I don't think he should be the main focus of this offense going forward. I'd like to see Welker with 70 - 80 catches, not 110 catches. As Brady gets older we need to take the pressure off him. More running which will open up play action and for that we need an outside WR who can get down field. If i'm Belichick i'd offer Welker 3 years at $21 million.

We had the 2nd most rushing attempts in the NFL this season.
How do we get better by throwing less to the guy who we are most successful throwing to?
Do we tell him to not get open, or tell Brady to ignore him when he is?

 

[Marqui]

Now 2 outside guys (Lloyd and a true do it all receiver like Bowe) would alleviate some of this clogging. Lloyd sucks but its hard to imagine us replacing him and getting a true number 1.

The Bowe idea is good, but he's probably going to cost a ton of money.

 

[Deus Irae]

This is an honest question do you guys feel he is worth that much money, not in a vacuum, but given our current cap space of 20 million.

Its going to cost 8-10 million to keep Welker, and that means the offense that has scored 21, 17, and 13 (notice the downward trend!) in our last 3 playoff losses returns largely the same unless we draft a stud rolleyes: ).

At some point do we not need to change what we do as an offense it clearly does not work in the playoffs against good teams?

1.) Welker's franchise number is about $11 million, not $10 million

2.) If the Patriots stop screwing around with contracts and start approaching their best players with better negotiating goals than "We've got to win this!", they'll be better off in the future, and they would have been able to get away with paying both Mankins and Welker less money on longterm deals

3.) Welker is more than worth the money. The question should be whether or not the Patriots will be smart enough to figure that out.

 

[alvinnf]

I really think that Brian Hartline would be a good signing if we let Welker walk. He's terribly underrated. Good hands, pure outside target, runs the sickest comeback routes in the NFL. He, Lloyd, Edelman, and one of Wheaton/Patton would be a smooth transition into the post-Welker era.

Agreed! He is a boundary receiver. We need that desperately with all the TE's on the roster. Wes is a great piece for this offense but if we were to move on, I would be fine with it. They might actually think about running it again!

3 yrs 8 mil for welkah!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Everyone...I can't yell this loud enough...is ISN'T about Welker, it's about Hernandez. Welker is worth $10M in a vacuum, there is no question. He is an incredible talent, and we may never see a player like him again. He is one of the toughest players in the NFL, and despite the memories of some bad drops, he is incredibly reliable. Even if he does begin to decline with age, he is still an invaluable player.

But it's about Hernandez. He was clearly playing through an injury this year and wasn't full speed. Give him the offseason to recover and hope he isn't injury prone, and you have a guy who does everything that Welker does- the precise short routes, the screen passes, the occasional downfield threat, the reverse threat. I've said this many times, but if you watch replays, there are so many plays where BOTH Hernandez and Welker are wide open against slower linebacker corps over the middle.

Yes, there are some times when it definitely helps to have both of these guys on the field- no question. The Patriots ARE a better team with both of them, but the overlap in their talents devalues the financial worth of Welker to this offense.

The Patriots realized this last offseason when they tried to phase him out of the offense. Unfortunately, three things happened:

1. Hernandez got hurt.
2. Edelman is not where they needed him to be.
3. Lloyd became Branch II.

So, when you talk about $10M, that money could be better spent elsewhere to turn a weakness into a strength rather than make a strength a little stronger.

The two TE offense that the Patriots run with unique talents like Hernandez and Gronkowski is one of the most unstoppable schemes in the game. But logically, it would make SO MUCH more sense to have a real #1 receiver to take the top off the defense, and I think we would see, believe it or not, an even better offense that is much less prone to being shut down, since not EVERY player will have the same "bread and butter" zone in the middle of the field or on screen passes.

So while I love Wes Welker and respect him as much as any player in Patriots history, I truly believe that unless he takes a huge hometown discount, the Patriots need to do what's best for the team. They invested some big money in Gronk and Hernandez, and they've hitched their wagons to them. Let's hope they can stay healthy, Hernandez can pickup the targets, and we can get either (a) a really good true #1 receiver, or (b) a big upgrade, or several big upgrades on defense.

 

[Deus Irae]

Everyone...I can't yell this loud enough...is ISN'T about Welker, it's about Hernandez...

Welker > Hernandez


That's what the Patriots learned this year, if they didn't already know it. Hernandez isn't a tight end. He's an oversized slot WR who can't block, has mediocre hands, and can't maintain his game if he's less than 100%.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Welker > Hernandez


That's what the Patriots learned this year, if they didn't already know it. Hernandez isn't a tight end. He's an oversized slot WR who can't block, has mediocre hands, and can't maintain his game if he's less than 100%.

I'm not saying Hernandez is god, but he returned from a high ankle sprain in the same season and clearly was never close to 100%. Bottom line is, Hernandez is locked up through 2020, is younger than Welker by 11 years. They have hitched their wagon to him, so whether Welker is better right now is irrelevant. Hernandez is a Patriot for a long time, and you can't deny the overlap in their talents.