Going for it on 4th down was CORRECT...here's why...

[BSR]

The Pats' offense wasn't doing well. The failure of the play isn't hindsight, it was easily predicted based on how the game was going.

You mean the same offense that burnt the last 4 minutes of the game by passing on 3rd down?

 

[aluminum seats]

jeezus krist...I KNEW it...just got home from the game....just unbelievable the amount of whiny little CL's on this board....here's the breakdown,the Patriots WON...by TEN points...if,then, when, how, maybe, goo goo, gaa gaa and all the rest of your constant , pathetic mewlings about how YOU know things and these things are all "REAL BAD!!!" are really bringing this message board down...every friggin' game, every season since 2007 it's the same little rat boy crap...if you hate BB and the Patriots so much that all you can do is run here and b!tch and moan all game long and then mock, deride, decry and attempt to destroy any sense of fan satisfaction plain flat out SUKKS.

Find another team to whine and complain about...or stop calling yourself a Pats fan...Buffalo, the Jets , Miami...they are all lusting for fans...so do them and US a favor and join THEIR ranks.

Had a couple beers at the game, huh.

 

[ATippett56]

Better than 50% chance isn't good enough for you? Manning was throwing for over 70% completion percentage. You think that giving that was the better percentage to go with?

What happened on the next "long" Denver offensive drive?

 

[hovis]

The game play information on NFL.com claims otherwise.

NFL Game Center: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots - 2012 Week 5

1st play to 2nd play - 28 seconds
2nd play to 3rd play - 35 seconds
3rd play to 4th play - 41 seconds
4th play to 5th play - 38 seconds (clock stopped)
5th play to 6th play - 6 seconds (incomplete pass)
6th play to 7th play - 5 seconds

Other than 12 seconds between the 1st and second play, I really don't think you have much of a leg to stand on there. Unless you are saying they should have tried running it instead of going to Lloyd. Beyond that, There wasn't much time they didn't run off the clock..

Ok.It wasn't as bad as I thought, clock management wise. Although, if you looked at the playclock, which doesn't show on the drive chart, I think they could have shaved more time, but I'm probably nitpicking at that point.

 

[Deus Irae]

It was mind numbingly stupid to go for it there. Then again, they'd already shown a willingness to do really stupid things in this game at the end of the first half.

BB owes Ninkovich a bonus for bailing his ass out. He might want to send a thank you card and flowers to McGahee while he's at it.

 

[DaBruinz]

You're right, my memory was off and I misread the drive charts. Still, with eight minutes, I still think punting is the right call. You double the field Manning has to drive, and that 1.5 minute drive turns into a 3 minute one, giving you the ball back with about 5 minutes and a 10 point lead. If your offense is any good, they kill all five or at least kick a field goal and leave only a minute.

You must have missed the AFCCG championship game where Manning drove 80 yards in 1 minute and 15 seconds against the Pats. And that was with a team that didn't have Demerius Thomas on it. You know, the guy who torched the Pats for 188 yards.

I have no doubt in my mind that Manning still has the ability to do that. So making the claim that adding extra yards automatically adds extra time isn't justified.

If the Pats had gotten the first down, they'd have easily killed another 2 minutes (or more) off the clock and probably added 3 points on the scoreboard at the very least.

As I said, the likelihood of a Brady sack and fumble for -20 yards is probably 1%. Unfortunately, that 1% happened.

 

[Joker]

Had a couple beers at the game, huh.

nope...more like hot chocolate and coffees...the Pats won by ten points...up 31-7 near the end of the 3rd quarter...had a great time...good friends..die hard fans...we actually laughed about this board and all the insanity that must be going on and sure enough, after reading all this scary Mary garbage, we were right on the money...

 

[Deus Irae]

nope...more like hot chocolate and coffees...the Pats won by ten points...up 31-7 near the end of the 3rd quarter...had a great time...good friends..die hard fans...we actually laughed about this board and all the insanity that must be going on and sure enough, after reading all this scary Mary garbage, we were right on the money...

The Patriots won by 10 points because McGahee dropped an easy 4th down conversion, because Ninkovich bailed out the offense, and because, in general, the Broncos returned the favor to New England at a crucial time. Acting as if the 10 point win should insulate the team from questions is ridiculous.

 

[voluntarysaftey]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but your statistical model just uses numbers to say "do what gives you the best chance of winning".

No. ****.

Yes it does -- problem is 80% of the board can't figure it out -- same reason why people have betting strategies in roullete where they think it affects their expected return, or why ppl get made at blackjack tables if you 'dont play by the rules'

 

[BSR]

What happened on the next "long" Denver offensive drive?

They marched right down the field in less than 2 minutes at which point McGahee fumbled. By your logic, I guess Denver should have gone for the field goal there since the play resulted in a fumble.

 

[voluntarysaftey]

I'm sorry, I find this funny. You take the time to write up this hypothetical math problem, and then say, but of course it's a guess.

An educated guess is better then making stuff up based on 'it worked/didn't-work one time in the past'

 

[BSR]

It was mind numbingly stupid to go for it there. Then again, they'd already shown a willingness to do really stupid things in this game at the end of the first half.

BB owes Ninkovich a bonus for bailing his ass out. He might want to send a thank you card and flowers to McGahee while he's at it.

Yes, Belichick should have predicted that his QB and RB were both going to fumble the game away.

 

[hovis]

You must have missed the AFCCG championship game where Manning drove 80 yards in 1 minute and 15 seconds against the Pats. And that was with a team that didn't have Demerius Thomas on it. You know, the guy who torched the Pats for 188 yards.

I have no doubt in my mind that Manning still has the ability to do that. So making the claim that adding extra yards automatically adds extra time isn't justified.

If the Pats had gotten the first down, they'd have easily killed another 2 minutes (or more) off the clock and probably added 3 points on the scoreboard at the very least.

As I said, the likelihood of a Brady sack and fumble for -20 yards is probably 1%. Unfortunately, that 1% happened.

No question the payoff of converting is great, but the downside of not converting, even by an inch, makes it a bad call IMHO. And the Pats don't have an aging, flu-ridden D like 2006, and they're definitely better than the 4th and 2 D. Not to mention the resurgence of the run game. Luckily, the D really solidified the game and put the O in the position to clinch at the end. Otherwise this call could have been infamous.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes, Belichick should have predicted that his QB and RB were both going to fumble the game away.

Those weren't the only possible negatives, and you know that.

 

[fnordcircle]

The Pats were up by THREE scores. They had no need to 'ice' the game by going for it on 4th and 5.

1 play. Whether the Patriots punted it and downed it at the 1 inch line. It just takes 1 play for the Colts to score a touchdown.

Conversely you go for it there and you can run a lot more time off of the clock and put the game almost completely out of reach.

 

[DaBruinz]

It was mind numbingly stupid to go for it there. Then again, they'd already shown a willingness to do really stupid things in this game at the end of the first half.

BB owes Ninkovich a bonus for bailing his ass out. He might want to send a thank you card and flowers to McGahee while he's at it.

Really, Deus? What stupid thing did they do at the end of the first half?

Sorry, but you are off your game tonight. It was not "mind-numbingly stupid" to go for it there and I bet if you went back to management secrets of the New England Patriots to could find information that says it's a good thing to go for it from there. Particularly when you are facing a QB of the caliber of Peyton Manning.

Now, as I said, I have no problem with going for it. I had a problem with not giving Brady max protection. Giving Brady 2 guys on either side of him to pick up the blitz would have allowed Brady time to do something. That is my only issue with what the Pats did.

 

[Danger Zone]

Or how about this. If you're too much of a thin-skinned simpleton to enjoy a great win but still have a debate about a controversial decision, then stay the **** out of a thread that has one.

Maybe a little more "enjoying the win" and a little less "I know better than Belichick" might not be a bad thing.

His reaction is just as valid as yours... and hell of a lot more understandable from a Patriots fan.

 

[Joker]

Denver had negatives too...in fact, they had MORE that the Pats...that's why the Pats won...even though ,as it was so chickenly littley put just above, Brady and Ridley actually fumbled the game away and the Pats lost 21-31

 

[Deus Irae]

Really, Deus? What stupid thing did they do at the end of the first half?

If you don't know, you didn't watch the game.

Sorry, but you are off your game tonight.

No, I'm not

It was not "mind-numbingly stupid" to go for it there

Yes, it was

and I bet if you went back to management secrets of the New England Patriots to could find information that says it's a good thing to go for it from there. Particularly when you are facing a QB of the caliber of Peyton Manning.

Going by a book without bothering to feel the game is asinine. You should have learned that lesson with the Colts loss.

Now, as I said, I have no problem with going for it.

You had no problem with the Patriots being mind numbingly stupid, then. That's really all I need to know.

 

[ATippett56]

Better than 50% chance isn't good enough for you?

Prove to me that statistically fact.

Manning was throwing for over 70% completion percentage. You think that giving that was the better percentage to go with?

I go based on the facts:

Advanced NFL Stats: Drive Results