Going for it on 4th down was CORRECT...here's why...

[BSR]

Yes, on 4th and 5 there is a low probability of conversion, I'd speculate much more so than a standard 4th and 1 yard type situation. We'd see more 4th and 5 yard conversion attempts if it was considered a high probability play.

I'd have to see the numbers to believe it. In fact, this is the type of stuff Belichick has studied over the years and knows better than anyone.

 

[DaBruinz]

Yes, on 4th and 5 there is a low probability of conversion, I'd speculate much more so than a standard 4th and 1 yard type situation. We'd see more 4th and 5 yard conversion attempts if it was considered a high probability play.

4th and 5 from the opponents 37 is a pretty good bet of completing the pass with this offense, normally. The problem was that they'd lost both Mankins and Vollmer and didn't go max protect like they should have. That is the ONLY issue I have with the play call. Hell, call Max Protect with a WR screen with Ridley, Bolden or Vereen lined up as that receiver and let's see them do something..

As mentioned, the likelihood of the sack and fumble is not high.

I have no issue going for it. I just think there could have been a better play-call.

 

[Mack Herron]

Not the manner Brady was throwing the football in the second half:

First half: Brady 17/20

Second half: Brady 6/11

Passing game was pretty poor in the second half. Mainly, I think, because they figured out they really only had to cover Welker. Still struggling to threaten the perimeter.

 

[ATippett56]

Still struggling to threaten the perimeter.

Last time I looked, Champ Bailey is a damn good cornerback.

 

[BSR]

You have to look at the risks and rewards of each situation on its own. In this particular case, the Patriots had a 17 point lead with about five minutes left. Obviously, converting the 4th and 5 is the best of all scenarios, but you can say that about any fourth down situation. I agreed with 4th and 2, but when you have a 17 point lead with five minutes left, you punt the ball.

For the sake of argument, let's assume Peyton Manning was going to score no matter what. If they pinned them back and employed a conservative defensive strategy that makes the Broncos earn it, they could have been up by ten with around two minutes left. That's a far better scenario then the scenario you're faced with if you fail to convert on the 4th and 5 and let up a TD.

I think you are putting too much emphasis on the extra time they could have burnt. Manning can make up 20 yards burning very little time off the clock.

 

[DaBruinz]

You have to look at the risks and rewards of each situation on its own. In this particular case, the Patriots had a 17 point lead with about five minutes left. Obviously, converting the 4th and 5 is the best of all scenarios, but you can say that about any fourth down situation. I agreed with 4th and 2, but when you have a 17 point lead with five minutes left, you punt the ball.

It was a 17 point lead with over 8 minutes still on the clock with the Pats at the Broncos 37. Converting the 4th down will take another 2-3 minutes off the clock, allow the Pats to kick a FG more than likely and seal the game.

For the sake of argument, let's assume Peyton Manning was going to score no matter what. If they pinned them back and employed a conservative defensive strategy that makes the Broncos earn it, they could have been up by ten with around two minutes left. That's a far better scenario then the scenario you're faced with if you fail to convert on the 4th and 5 and let up a TD.

Manning had just gone 90 yards in 3 minutes a couple series prior. If he does that again, there is STILL over 4 minutes on the clock and the chance for Manning to get the ball back since the Pats had already had two series where they hadn't done anything.

 

[BSR]

I was referring to earlier in the game,I believe just before the half

I didn't DVR the game (thank God)
But I distinctly remember thinking 'why not go for it here? WTF?'

Here is the play by play. If the situation is there I don't see it. NFL Game Center: New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens - 2012 Week 3

 

[voluntarysaftey]

You can agree or disagree with the probability estimates behind the call. The problem is most fans don't understand statistics/probability and so judge decisions by the results or by anecdonatal evidence.

This is basically what it comes down to:

If you punt:
P[win] = P[winning-after-punting]

If you go for it:
P[win] = P[making-4th-down]*P[winning-after-making-that] + (1-P[making-4th-down])*P[winning-after-not-making-that]

The best decision is whichever P[win] is greater -- punting or not

The difficulty comes into the fact that estimating these possibilities is somehwat a guess based on historical data and how the game is going and how accurately you can do it in your head.

But just because its hard to accurately judge the two decisions, doesn't mean you should just default to 'punting all the time'.

Was it the right decision? I don't know -- but I'm willing to guess Bill is better at making that decision than most coaches, and most fans, and most media members

 

[aluminum seats]

P[win] = P[winning-after-punting]

If you go for it:
P[win] = P[making-4th-down]*P[winning-after-making-that] + (1-P[making-4th-down])*P[winning-after-not-making-that]

The best decision is whichever P[win] is greater -- punting or not

The difficulty comes into the fact that estimating these possibilities is somehwat a guess...

I'm sorry, I find this funny. You take the time to write up this hypothetical math problem, and then say, but of course it's a guess.

 

[DaBruinz]

The Pats were up by THREE scores. They had no need to 'ice' the game by going for it on 4th and 5. 4th and 5 is a pretty difficult down and distance. As opposed to 4th and 2 where the odds are much more in your favor to converting. Nobody could have predicted the result but you have to keep in mind that you do RISK having those sorts of plays happening on a pressure packed 4th down.

Mesko doesn't just have a booming leg, he's one of the best in the game at the 'coffin' corner, ie pinning the opposition within their 20 yard line. Making Manning drive 80-90+ yards for the score vs giving him the ball at midfield is a HUGE difference. And it allowed the Broncos to score VERY quickly! Compound the risky 4th down call with Ridley's fumble later and it could easily have led to a loss if a certain Ninkovich hadn't stepped up with a clutch forced fumble later on.

Fact is we gave the Broncos life when we could have easily punted it and made them drive the distance to score THREE times instead of gift wrapping them a chance to score quickly and cut the lead to a TWO score game. I respect BB. He's a genius, but even geniuses make mistakes or outsmart themselves, or perhaps this call was on McDaniels, but it reminds me too much of the Pats getting too cutesy like the disastrous Chung fake punt play. Stop outsmarting yourself and just play the field position game when you have the lead!

Fact is that the Broncos breathed life into themselves 2 series prior when they stuffed the run and then sacked Brady twice. THAT's how they got back into the game.

BTW, plenty of people on here have complained about the Pats punting the ball to Manning with too much time on the clock. Manning has proven time and again that he CAN go the distance in under 2 minutes. There being over 8 minutes on the clock before this play happened is too much time to be thinking that it will force Manning to burn too much time off the clock. Especially with a guy like Thomas on the outside.

OH, one last thing. Last I looked, BB doesn't have ESP. So, this idea that he should have known that Brady would fumble the ball for a 20 yard loss on a pass play is just silly. It's much more likely that the ball fall incomplete or Brady complete the pass than any of the negative outcomes.

 

[Deus Irae]

Terrible decision, just like the Indianapolis decision. At least this one didn't cost the game.

 

[BSR]

Not the manner Brady was throwing the football in the second half:

First half: Brady 17/20

Second half: Brady 6/11

Better than 50% chance isn't good enough for you? Manning was throwing for over 70% completion percentage. You think that giving that was the better percentage to go with?

 

[hovis]

It was a 17 point lead with over 8 minutes still on the clock with the Pats at the Broncos 37. Converting the 4th down will take another 2-3 minutes off the clock, allow the Pats to kick a FG more than likely and seal the game.



Manning had just gone 90 yards in 3 minutes a couple series prior. If he does that again, there is STILL over 4 minutes on the clock and the chance for Manning to get the ball back since the Pats had already had two series where they hadn't done anything.

You're right, my memory was off and I misread the drive charts. Still, with eight minutes, I still think punting is the right call. You double the field Manning has to drive, and that 1.5 minute drive turns into a 3 minute one, giving you the ball back with about 5 minutes and a 10 point lead. If your offense is any good, they kill all five or at least kick a field goal and leave only a minute.

 

[lamafist]

Yes, on 4th and 5 there is a low probability of conversion, I'd speculate much more so than a standard 4th and 1 yard type situation. We'd see more 4th and 5 yard conversion attempts if it was considered a high probability play.

Since the NFL began keeping complete play-by-play records, teams have converted on 4th and 5 between the 20 yard lines 50% of the time.

That's the conversion rate of an average offense vs. an average defense. The Patriots have what's probably the best offense in the league, and though the Broncos D is probably above average, the Pats had been having great success against them all day.

Statistically, it's alot harder for an offense to score a touchdown on a 80 yard drive than a 43 yard drive.

Well, sure, if Belichick had known that the result of the 4th-and-5 play would be a sack and fumble for a loss of 14 yards, he probably would have gone with something else.

Belichick doesn't have the luxury of hindsight. So he had to balance the possibility of that kind of negative play with the possibility of big punt return, the possibility of a pick-six with the possibility of a blocked punt returned for a TD, etc.

So the real question is what is the value of the probable field position differential between turning it over on dows and punting vs. the all-but-game-clinching value of converting it. I think the answer is pretty obvious.

 

[hovis]

You can agree or disagree with the probability estimates behind the call. The problem is most fans don't understand statistics/probability and so judge decisions by the results or by anecdonatal evidence.

This is basically what it comes down to:

If you punt:
P[win] = P[winning-after-punting]

If you go for it:
P[win] = P[making-4th-down]*P[winning-after-making-that] + (1-P[making-4th-down])*P[winning-after-not-making-that]

The best decision is whichever P[win] is greater -- punting or not

The difficulty comes into the fact that estimating these possibilities is somehwat a guess based on historical data and how the game is going and how accurately you can do it in your head.

But just because its hard to accurately judge the two decisions, doesn't mean you should just default to 'punting all the time'.

Was it the right decision? I don't know -- but I'm willing to guess Bill is better at making that decision than most coaches, and most fans, and most media members

Correct me if I'm wrong, but your statistical model just uses numbers to say "do what gives you the best chance of winning".

No. ****.

 

[aluminum seats]

The Pats' offense wasn't doing well. The failure of the play isn't hindsight, it was easily predicted based on how the game was going.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Passing game was pretty poor in the second half. Mainly, I think, because they figured out they really only had to cover Welker. Still struggling to threaten the perimeter.

Too much shotgun, too much empty backfield, and some tells in their running game was letting the Broncos gamble a bit on D. The Broncos have a pretty good defensive backfield and can rush the passer as well as anyone, so keeping them off balance is hugely important.

 

[Joker]

jeezus krist...I KNEW it...just got home from the game....just unbelievable the amount of whiny little CL's on this board....here's the breakdown,the Patriots WON...by TEN points...if,then, when, how, maybe, goo goo, gaa gaa and all the rest of your constant , pathetic mewlings about how YOU know things and these things are all "REAL BAD!!!" are really bringing this message board down...every friggin' game, every season since 2007 it's the same little rat boy crap...if you hate BB and the Patriots so much that all you can do is run here and b!tch and moan all game long and then mock, deride, decry and attempt to destroy any sense of fan satisfaction plain flat out SUKKS.

Find another team to whine and complain about...or stop calling yourself a Pats fan...Buffalo, the Jets , Miami...they are all lusting for fans...so do them and US a favor and join THEIR ranks.

 

[hovis]

jeezus krist...I KNEW it...just got home from the game....just unbelievable the amount of whiny little CL's on this board....here's the breakdown,the Patriots WON...by TEN points...if,then, when, how, maybe, goo goo, gaa gaa and all the rest of your constant , pathetic mewlings about how YOU know things and these things are all "REAL BAD!!!" are really bringing this message board down...every friggin' game, every season since 2007 it's the same little rat boy crap...if you hate BB and the Patriots so much that all you can do is run here and b!tch and moan all game long and then mock, deride, decry and attempt to destroy any sense of fan satisfaction plain flat out SUKKS.

Find another team to whine and complain about...or stop calling yourself a Pats fan...Buffalo, the Jets , Miami...they are all lusting for fans...so do them and US a favor and join THEIR ranks.

Or how about this. If you're too much of a thin-skinned simpleton to enjoy a great win but still have a debate about a controversial decision, then stay the **** out of a thread that has one.

 

[DaBruinz]

The pace. They weren't letting 40 seconds burn off between each play.

The game play information on NFL.com claims otherwise.

NFL Game Center: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots - 2012 Week 5

1st play to 2nd play - 28 seconds
2nd play to 3rd play - 35 seconds
3rd play to 4th play - 41 seconds
4th play to 5th play - 38 seconds (clock stopped)
5th play to 6th play - 6 seconds (incomplete pass)
6th play to 7th play - 5 seconds

Other than 12 seconds between the 1st and second play, I really don't think you have much of a leg to stand on there. Unless you are saying they should have tried running it instead of going to Lloyd. Beyond that, There wasn't much time they didn't run off the clock..