Expectations for the Defense

[ivanvamp]

Last year the Patriots had a below-average defense, statistically:

#9 points allowed
#25 yards allowed
#14 DVOA (from football outsiders)
#17 DSRS (from football-reference.com)

The average rank of these four measurements is 16.25, meaning the Patriots had an average to below-average D. Not terrible, but not good either.

Not counting the playoffs, they gave up one point less per year in their last 8 games than they did their first 8 (21.3 in the first half vs. 20.1 in the second half).

Not counting potential injuries (which we know there will be some), they will have Talib for a whole year, they've added Adrian Wilson, hopefully Dennard will start all year, they've added Collins and Kelly, plus we hope that C. Jones and Hightower take the next step in their development.

There are all kinds of question marks, however:

- Can Jones become an elite pass rusher?
- Aside from Jones, where will the sacks and pressures come from?
- Can Talib stay healthy?
- Will Dennard stay out of prison?
- Can either of the Wilsons man the other safety spot next to McCourty with any sort of effectiveness?
- Will the new kids be ready for prime time?
- Is there enough depth to weather the forthcoming injury storm?

Nobody knows the answers to these questions at this point.

Their schedule features a mix of teams that ranged all over the board in terms of performance in 2012. They will play some excellent teams (Hou, Bal, Den, Atl), some bad ones (NYJ, Cle, Buf). The average team they will play will feature this profile from 2012:

Avg # of wins in 2012: 8.1
Avg scoring rank in 2012: 16.9
Avg yards rank in 2012: 17.4

So they are playing teams with average to slightly below-average offenses. That *should* help the Patriots. Their first three games feature the Bills, Jets, and Bucs. Here were their numbers last year:

Team - Wins - Pt Rank - Yd Rank
Buf - 6 - 21 - 19
NYJ - 6 - 28 - 30
TB - 7 - 13 - 9

So that's as good an opening schedule as a team with a lot of youth like NE could possibly ask for.

Reading into my crystal ball, then, here's what I anticipate from the defense:

I think the pass defense will improve, because:
(1) Jones looks like he's primed to take a big leap forward,
(2) Ninkovich continues to improve as a pass rusher,
(3) The cover guys look a little better, which will not only prevent more passes from being completed, it will also help the pass rush as the QB will not have as many men open when he wants to throw the ball, and
(4) Collins and Dane Fletcher are back, which should help immensely in terms of covering TEs and RBs.

I think the run defense should be about the same, which is to say, pretty solid. I think adding Kelly will help, and I think Spikes and Hightower really hammer the running game. Adding a big-time hitter like Adrian Wilson should be beneficial as well.

I am worried about the depth, and I am worried about the CB situation with Talib's health and Dennard's legal issues.

Overall, I think the Patriots will have a defense that lands in the top 7-8 in scoring ranking, and the top 16 in yardage ranking, making them a significantly improved unit from last year. I think they'll still get their turnovers, and will force more 3-and-outs than last year. They won't be a dominant unit, but they will be above-average, and that's saying a lot given what they've put out there the last few years.

Given that I think the offense will take a step back from last year, the projected improvement of the defense will be very welcomed.

EDIT: Adjusted the first section to correct the numbers that I misread...thanks to Oswlek for the heads-up.

 

[Oswlek]

15th and 31st? Aren't those from 2011?

EDIT:

2012 NFL Team Total Stats - National Football League - ESPN

NE was 9th in points allowed and 25th in YPG last year.

 

[ivanvamp]

15th and 31st? Aren't those from 2011?

EDIT:

2012 NFL Team Total Stats - National Football League - ESPN

NE was 9th in points allowed and 25th in YPG last year.

Egads, right you are. I looked one line down. I'll fix the original. Thanks!

 

[Oswlek]

Egads, right you are. I looked one line down. I'll fix the original. Thanks!

No worries.

As for the original post, I agree with much of what you say. I'd love to see a 2011 Texans-type leap forward, but I'm not expecting it. The Patriots don't rely on pure athleticism as much as they do, which means they tend to do their best work at the end of the year when film is more plentiful. But something like 16th in yards and 7th in points seems entirely reasonable.

(FWIW, I typed those rankings up before fully scanning through your post and seeing what you predicted. )

Your questions are apt, and I suspect a few will turn out to be answered negatively, but at least we finally get to see a squad return with virtually no turnover and plenty of experience. That should help cover up a lot, particularly when you consider that the questions NE faces are less dire than they've been in the past.

 

[JR4]

Last year the Patriots had a below-average defense, statistically:

#9 points allowed
.
.
.
.

Given that I think the offense will take a step back from last year, the projected improvement of the defense will be very welcomed.
....

IMO, points allowed is the most important stat. I'd like to see that
improve. Will it? The Talent on Defense may be better but what about
the schedule. Is it tougher offensively? I am optimistic here. I'm guessing
PATs average points allowed/game this year will be 18 or less.

If Gronk is healthy I am not expecting the PATS offense to take a step back. In fact they should be better.
Why?
1. Oline is getting healthy and been together a yeae or two now.
2. Receivers at first may be not as good as last year but
after six weeks they will be as good or better. IMO
3. The Running game will be better.
4. The schedule this year is not as bad for the PATs looking at defenses they face.

I think the offense we see early will be much like the offense we saw
against Eagles when TB was playing this preseason.

 

[BradyFTW!]

To make the major step forward that we're all hoping for, the Pats will need a combination of the following:

Chandler Jones to become a bona fide stud pass rusher
Collins or Fletcher to capably assume the coverage linebacker role
Dennard to stay on the field and maintain or improve upon his level of play from last year
Talib to stay on the field and maintain or improve upon his level of play from last year
Someone (anyone) to capably play safety opposite McCourty
Wilfork to stay healthy and play a ton of snaps yet again

I'm confident that some of these things will happen. I don't know which, but some will. Unfortunately, I'm willing to bet that some won't. For the defense to significantly improve from last year's, probably 4 of those 6 things need to happen.

Will that happen? Who knows; my guess, at this point, would be that this year's defense will be slightly-to-moderately improved over last year's in most respects, but any improvement in those areas will be offset by getting fewer takeaways.

 

[MTM558]

There are reasons to be optimistic about this unit, but I still think this will be a defense that ranks in the bottom third overall.

Depth at DE, DT, CB and even S is concerning. After Jones, Ninkovich, Wilfork and Kelly, where will the pass rush come from? A top trio of Talib, Dennard, and Arrington is worlds better than what the team has had in years, but Talib has yet to play a full season, Dennard could be jailed / suspended, and Arrington is bad on the perimeter. The likes of Logan Ryan, Ras-I Dowling and Marquice Cole are serviceable, but I'm not a fan.

The biggest question is at Safety. There is Devin McCourty... and who else? Adrian Wilson hasn't stood out, Tavon Wilson is entering bust territory, Duron Harmon was overdrafted, and Steve Gregory is simply a backup caliber player. McCourty will definitely cover some mistakes and miscues, but Safety has been a huge issue with the Patriots for years and it still is.

With that being said:

* I fully expect the starting front 7 to improve. Ninkovich and Jones are entering year 2 as NFL DEs, Wilfork is his dominant self, and Kelly is a savy, durable veteran who adds an interior rush this team hasn't had in years. As Vince is being double teamed, Jones, Ninkovich and Kelly are all pushing. It really comes down to beating their man and getting to the quarterback.
* Linebacker is the strongest position on this defense. Mayo-Spikes-Hightower is a potent trio, and Fletcher, Beauharnais, and Collins all add valuable depth and can all be used in a rotation.
* The pass defense will be improved from years past assuming health, but with this group, it's hard to count on.

When all is said and done, considering personnel, depth chart projections, scheme and schedule, I expect:

* Between 40 and 50 sacks - Last year the team totaled 37, which was good for middle of the pack. The development of Jones, Ninkovich, Hightower, with the additions of Kelly and even A. Wilson will help increase that total, as well as a (hopefully) improved secondary. It also helps that this team plays a few porous offensive lines.

* A top-12 scoring defense - Last year they ranked 9th overall. This year, they play more potent offenses, yet historically rank very well in this category. Call this more of a hunch than a projection.

* Between 16th-25th ranked pass defense - I expect a similar ranking to last year considering the offenses this team will face, but the improved secondary does offer hope. I still don't think this is an overly good unit. A defined #2 CB and starting SS is needed.

* A top-10 run defense - This team dominated against the run last season, and I expect that to continue this season.

Overall, this defense has middle of the pack potential, but can easily be bottom third once again. Part of it is because of design, and also due to personnel. There is no dominant force outside of Vince Wilfork. They are conservative in playcalling. Though it should be noted that stats are often inflated because when the Pats jump ahead 30-0, they tend to pull back.

 

[Rob0729]

Last year the Patriots had a below-average defense, statistically:

#9 points allowed
#25 yards allowed
#14 DVOA (from football outsiders)
#17 DSRS (from football-reference.com)

The average rank of these four measurements is 16.25, meaning the Patriots had an average to below-average D. Not terrible, but not good either.

No offense, but when did the average of those four rankings become the measuring stick of a defense? And even if these are valid metrics, how is the average of the four make mean anything?

Football Outsiders is already a ranking based on points allowed and yards allowed (along with other metrics). I assume that Football-Reference.com does the same. So technically, both FO and Football-Reference is already average of all the key metrics. Yards and points allowed are individual stats while the other two are value rankings based on all the defensive stats.

The Pats were second in the league in turnovers. Why is that not a metric for what makes a defense good or not?

Whether or not I agree with your overall point, I think your logic of using the average of these four metrics is flawed. Personally, I think the Pats had an average defense that at times was above average.

 

[ivanvamp]

No offense, but when did the average of those four rankings become the measuring stick of a defense? And even if these are valid metrics, how is the average of the four make mean anything?

Football Outsiders is already a ranking based on points allowed and yards allowed (along with other metrics). I assume that Football-Reference.com does the same. So technically, both FO and Football-Reference is already average of all the key metrics.

The Pats were second in the league in turnovers. Why is that not a metric for what makes a defense good or not?

Whether or not I agree with your overall point, I think your logic of using the average of these four metrics is flawed. Personally, I think the Pats had an average defense that at times was above average.

I agree it's flawed. It was just a snapshot of some relevant numbers. Turnovers caused is also a big one that I neglected. There are others too.

 

[ausbacker]

My expectation for the 2013 Defense; be better than the 2012 Defense.

 

[ivanvamp]

My expectation for the 2013 Defense; be better than the 2012 Defense.

Is that a hope or an expectation? For me, it's both.

 

[patsfan-1982]

I have no Expectations for this defense because Kelly is the only new guy on this defense and right now it looks like they have even less dept then last year at lest at DT,

but I do have hope that Kelly. Chandler Jones, Devin McCourty and Dont'a Hightower all play at a pro bowl level and make the defense good anuff to win in the post season

 

[mgteich]

I think that it is a reasonable hope, presuming only that the top players remain healthy. Let's look at last year's team and the replacements.

OVERALL
I think that we have improved at DT, LB, CB and S. The major weakness is that we have very weak backup defensive linemen (Cunningham may be the best among them). Also. our secondary is suspect. Personally, I think that all the secondary needs to be much better than last year is some health.


DT Someone must be kidding.
out - Deaderick, Love, Brace
in - Kelly, Vellano
------------------------------------
DE - A healthy Jones is the key. I'm OK with Cunningham and Benard" I hoped for better.
out - Scott, Bequette (?)
in - Benard, Buchanan (?)
-----------------------------------
LB - Our 6 man deep linebacker corps in the best in years (including Ninkovich)
We have a challenge if we are going to lose all of the special teamers.
out - White, Koutovides, Tarpinian, Rivera (?)
in - Fletcher, Collins
--------------------------------
CB Will Talib stay healthy. How much will Dennard play? Will Dowling even make the
team? Even with all the questions, we are better than last year.
out - street free agents
in - Ryan, Dowling (?)
-------------------------------
S - We HAVE upgraded our safeties. The bar was a low one.
out - Chung, Ebner
in - A. Smith, Harmon
---------------------------

Is that a hope or an expectation? For me, it's both.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Judging by the improvement since getting Talib and the potential impact of adding Kelley/progress of Hightower and Jones, I have big expectations early on. It will be a top 10, maybe top 5 defense if all goes well.

However once again, as little as one injury at CB could unfortunately make it a below average defense just like that. Hopefully Ryan or Glass-IR can prove me wrong there (we know Cole won't).

 

[Oswlek]

I have no Expectations for this defense because Kelly is the only new guy on this defense and right now it looks like they have even less dept then last year at lest at DT,

but I do have hope that Kelly. Chandler Jones, Devin McCourty and Dont'a Hightower all play at a pro bowl level and make the defense good anuff to win in the post season

Perhaps, but Love ---> Kelly looks like a major upgrade, and whatever schlubs they run with won't be that much worse than Deaderick and Forston were last year.

Don't get me wrong, I want DT reinforced in the biggest way and even thought it was one of their top needs heading into the draft when Love and Deaderick were still around. I recognize the need. I just don't see a reason to think the comparable depth counters all the other places that appear to be improved.

 

[JMC00]

they have even less dept then last year at lest at DT,

Really? You thought that highly of Ron Brace & Brandon Deaderick?

I just think whoever ends up replacing them as the bottom 2 DT on the depth chart probably won't be that much of a fall off, it's possible it might even be an upgrade.

Because Tommy Kelly is an upgrade over Kyle Love

 

[Big-T]

Turnovers: top 3
Points allowed: top 5
Sacks: top 10
Rushing yards per game: top 10
Passing yards per game: top 20

Teams will still have to pass to try and keep up with Brady & the offense which increases both turnovers and passing yards allowed.

 

[stumeister]

All I want from the defense is for them to be so exciting that I have to sit on the edge of the couch for most of the game.

If that happens the rest will fall into place.

 

[jah]

Really? You thought that highly of Ron Brace & Brandon Deaderick?

I just think whoever ends up replacing them as the bottom 2 DT on the depth chart probably won't be that much of a fall off, it's possible it might even be an upgrade.

Because Tommy Kelly is an upgrade over Kyle Love

Deaderick was below average at worst (but just average at best). I don't think that cut was related to his play.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I have no Expectations for this defense because Kelly is the only new guy on this defense and right now it looks like they have even less dept then last year at lest at DT,

but I do have hope that Kelly. Chandler Jones, Devin McCourty and Dont'a Hightower all play at a pro bowl level and make the defense good anuff to win in the post season

It's a young defense. Progress from within for the young guys (CJ, Hightower, and Dennard in particular) is what will drive its progress. Also, there were several other additions that you didn't mention: Wilson, Collins, Ryan and Harmon all figure to play reasonably significant roles on this D.