Should we consider drafting Joe Alt in the first round?

[Salsalife]

Brady sat a whole year and the next year he came in because Bledsoe got hurt. QB3 will also sit 2024, we ok with that, right? Do you expect this qb to start in 2024? Should we ask season ticket holders what they think?

 

[Steve102]

There are a lot of busts or guys on the road to bust at tackle as well. Just look at the top 10 of the 2022 draft and look at the WRs that those teams passed to select their bust tackle.

WR is 100% a safer pick than every other position this year.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

WR is 100% a safer pick than every other position this year.

Which is why I’m waiting until day 2 to take one.

 

[lancerman]

Offensive line is extremely important. It's just that a single one isn't a game changer. One guy isn't going to fix the issues we have now, especially with how poor we are at depth. Hitting on QB or WR will instantly fix a lot more on offense.

 

[lancerman]

Which is why I’m waiting until day 2 to take one.

Just remember N'Keal Harry was drafted by us in what ended up being a historically great WR class. There's one absolutely safe WR to take and then one other I would consider a high end prospect. The rest are solid but might never be more than a 2 or 3 and some will bust.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Just remember N'Keal Harry was drafted by us in what ended up being a historically great WR class. There's one absolutely safe WR to take and then one other I would consider a high end prospect. The rest are solid but might never be more than a 2 or 3 and some will bust.

i remember Bill overruling our scouts in taking Harry over players like Deebo and AJ.

 

[jmt57]

If the front office doesn't like whichever QB it is remaining at #3, then don't draft him. In that scenario it makes sense to trade down and increase your draft picks from [4 of the first 103] to [6 of the first 103], or from [3 of the first 68] to [4 of the first 68], etc.

Rather than focusing on Alt if your QB is not there at #3, a better option would be to trade down somewhere no lower than the #11-#15 range. Now take the best remaining OT (Fuaga, Fautanu, Mims, Latham). While he won't be as good as Alt, he would still be good enough to be a starting LT - whereas waiting for an OT at #34 will only get you a good RT, but not a starting LT. If the team is sold on Nix, maybe try to move back up a little to draft him.

After drafting Nix/Penix, with the one or two additional draft picks the team has multiple options. They could double up at WR (McConkey, Corley, Polk, Legette, Wilson), or instead use #68 on a DT (Hall, Orhorhoro, Taylor, Jenkins); an edge defender (Kneeland, Braswell), a RB (Shipley, Allen), or a TE (Johnson, Sinnott) - depending on who is still available. At #103 you can again pick from any of the players above, or maybe CB (Sainristill), safety, another RB (Laube, Guerendo) or another TE (Bell, All, Barner).


The bottom line is that is impossible to get a top-tier QB, top-tier LT, and top-tier WR all in one draft. However, just one or two moves can give the roster genuine immediate upgrades in four, five, six positions or more.

 

[jmt57]

To add on to the post above, here is a mock draft I just completed.

- Tenn offers me their #7, #38 and #146 for the Pats #3.
The Pats now have 7 of the top 148 picks in the draft, rather than 5 of the top 137
The Titans draft Alt at #3.
- Pats draft Fashanu at #7, the #2 ranked OT.
- Pats draft Nix at #34 (Penix also available).
- Pats draft WR Adonai Mitchell at #38.
- Pats draft RB Will Shipley at #68.
- Pats draft SS Dadrion Taylor-Demerson at #103.
Replacement insurance should Dugger not re-sign.
There were also a couple edge rushers worth considering.
- Pats draft 3rd down RB Dylan Laube at #137.
- Pats draft TE Theo Johnson, the 4th ranked TE at #146.
- Pats draft CB Jarrian Jones at #180.
- Pats draft DT Logan Lee at #193.
- Pats draft FS Mark Perry at #231.


The comparison below is all based on the concept that the Patriots do not love their options for whichever QBs are still available at #3.
If they did like who was there, the assumption is that they would draft that player.

Downside in the difference between staying put and the trade down:
Pats get the #2 OT (Fashanu) rather than the #1 OT (Alt).

Upside in the difference between trading down and staying put:
Not drafting a QB at #3 means they can take the #2 OT, versus reaching for the 9th ranked OT at #34 (who is not fit to be a LT).
- The first additional draft pick equates to WR Mitchell at #38.
Rather than being compelled to drafting a lower tier WR now at #64, the Pats are able to add the #3 ranked RB.
Rather than drafting a lower tier RB, the Pats have the luxury of adding the #6 ranked safety (or an edge rusher).
- And with the other additional pick the Pats take the #4 ranked TE at #146.

IOW trading down is more than just the two additional picks.
It also results in better/earlier draft picks at multiple positions throughout the entire draft.

 

[Salsalife]

If the front office doesn't like whichever QB it is remaining at #3, then don't draft him. In that scenario it makes sense to trade down and increase your draft picks from 4 of the first 103 to 6 of the first 103, or from 3 of the first 68 to 4 of the first 68, etc.

Rather than focusing on Alt if your QB is not there at #3, a better option would be to trade down somewhere no lower than the #11-#15 range. Now take the best remaining OT (Fuaga, Fautanu, Mims, Latham). While he won't be as good as Alt, he would still be good enough to be a starting LT - whereas waiting for an OT at #34 will only get you a good RT, not a starting LT. If the team is sold on Nix, maybe try to move back up a little to draft him.

After drafting Nix/Penix, with the one or two additional draft picks the team has multiple options. They could double up at WR (McConkey, Corley, Polk, Legette, Wilson), or instead use #68 on a DT (Hall, Orhorhoro, Taylor, Jenkins); edge defender (Kneeland, Braswell), a RB (Shipley, Allen), or a TE (Johnson, Sinnott), depending on who is still available. At #103 you can again pick from any of the players above, or maybe CB (Sainristill), safety, another RB (Laube, Guerendo) or another TE (Bell, All, Barner).


The bottom line is that is impossible to get a top-tier QB, top-tier LT, and top-tier WR all in one draft. However, just one or two moves can give the roster genuine immediate upgrades in four, five, six positions or more.

I.M.O., Get the tackle first, 2024 record, 4-13
Get the QB first, 2024 record, 4-13
Get the WR1 first, 2024 record, 9-8, possible wild card.

 

[jmt57]

I.M.O., Get the tackle first, 2024 record, 4-13
Get the QB first, 2024 record, 4-13
Get the WR1 first, 2024 record, 9-8, possible wild card.

I hadn't even considered WR first, so I went through a few simulations to see how that would work out.

With no trades it became apparent that it wasn't worth wasting a draft pick on an OT at all.
Typical draft would be something like this:
#3 WR MHJ (or Nabors or Odunze, whoever you prefer)
34 QB Nix/Penix
68 RB Shipley
103 TE Johnson
137 RB Laube
180 DT Gabe Hall/CB Jones
193 DT Lee/CB Deantre Prince
231 FS Perry/Edge Rusher

In other words, all the same as the no-trade mock above - it's just the #1 OT vs the #1 WR.

===========================================================

Now here is a typical trade-down, but taking a WR first.
Result is the same as above but with this difference.
- Pats trade down to #5 or #6.
- Rather than an opportunity for the 1st WR, Pats get to pick the 3rd-rated WR (Nabers/Odunze)
- Pats also receive the #37 pick. With no decent OTs remaining, they double down on the position
- 37 WR Xavier Worthy.

In either case the Pats get much better at WR - in exchange for completely ignoring LT until 2025.

That's going to be the trade-off. Mixed feelings on this one.
Not sure that the WR option is five wins better than the OT option.

 

[50-yard-line]

Oh I don’t think you’ll have to worry about Milton “slipping” to the 2nd round. More like 4-7

Best quote I heard about him (paraphrasing): "If you need someone to throw it 80 yards, Milton will throw it 80 yards. If you need someone to throw it 15 yards, Milton will throw it 80 yards."

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Best quote I heard about him (paraphrasing): "If you need someone to throw it 80 yards, Milton will throw it 80 yards. If you need someone to throw it 15 yards, Milton will throw it 80 yards."

I initially wondered why that was a problem, only run plays that cover 80 yards. Then I remembered the new kickoff rules and the fact that teams will almost always have less than 80 yards of field to cover. Tough break for the kid.

 

[Patriot Missile]

The bottom line is that is impossible to get a top-tier QB, top-tier LT, and top-tier WR all in one draft. However, just one or two moves can give the roster genuine immediate upgrades in four, five, six positions or more.

That would be like hitting the lotto. Almost always a risk with QB but worth the reward 10 fold if he hits. Plug and play LT starters day 1 are rare. It’s crazy how some 3rd to 6th rounders just get it and flip the script once they get to the NFL. Same for WR, i think BGC had a 3rd or 4th on Tank Dell and midseason the guy just took off until the injury. You just never know. But key is at least identifying the potential and putting him on your roster and see what happens.

 

[Salsalife]

I hadn't even considered WR first, so I went through a few simulations to see how that would work out.

With no trades it became apparent that it wasn't worth wasting a draft pick on an OT at all.
Typical draft would be something like this:
#3 WR MHJ (or Nabors or Odunze, whoever you prefer)
34 QB Nix/Penix
68 RB Shipley
103 TE Johnson
137 RB Laube
180 DT Gabe Hall/CB Jones
193 DT Lee/CB Deantre Prince
231 FS Perry/Edge Rusher

In other words, all the same as the no-trade mock above - it's just the #1 OT vs the #1 WR.

===========================================================

Now here is a typical trade-down, but taking a WR first.
Result is the same as above but with this difference.
- Pats trade down to #5 or #6.
- Rather than an opportunity for the 1st WR, Pats get to pick the 3rd-rated WR (Nabers/Odunze)
- Pats also receive the #37 pick. With no decent OTs remaining, they double down on the position
- 37 WR Xavier Worthy.

In either case the Pats get much better at WR - in exchange for completely ignoring LT until 2025.

That's going to be the trade-off. Mixed feelings on this one.
Not sure that the WR option is five wins better than the OT option.

McConky at 37. Edelman 2.0, we battling with Buffalo for the division! Plug and play LT until 2025. FUN FUN Year. If we could get Penix at 37 I would be overjoyed but that's not gonna happen

 

[Pape]

Big thick tackle, fills a hole we need on the line, and would, at least in theory, make the job of any QB we happen to have much easier.

Looking at this roster, and especially at the way Mac got hung out to dry, taking the best OL in the draft just feels like the sort of thing we need to be thinking about. Remember we're coming off a year where not just QB was garbage but so was the ground game. One or the other struggling you look at the skill players, but if both are struggling together, the reason is usually weakness in the trenches.

and a tackle that can go 1v1 against the best pass rushers and help their guards is precious to both offense and defense. Success in the trenches keeps the offense on the field and getting some sustained drives will actually make the defense play better.

Frankly I'm looking down the list of possible QBs and see some guys who could make it into the second round that I definitely like. Spencer Rattler, Michael Pratt, Jordan Travis, JMIII, all promising guys and some of them will slip down to us. Pratt and JMIII in particular look very good to me

There's nothing sacred about the first round when it comes to finding your quarterback. Hell Brock Purdy's on his way to establishing himself as a premium QB and he was literally Mr. irrelevant. Meanwhile everyone knows the value of a good line. Alt will go quickly. I want to be the team he goes to.

I'd rather have Alt leading a revamped O-line and Pratt or JMIII under center, then Drake Maye and the a la carte mess of an OL we had last year.

The point being we have options beyond the first round to fill that need at QB, and top tacklees are worth their considerable weight in gold. It's something to think about.

late to the game here... haven't read the thread...

short answer is yes... longer answer is yeah, all things need to be considered, especially of the QB we want is gone by three... all positions of need have to be considered at 3 (or a trade down) and Alt is a player who could be around for a decade or longer of he pans out

 

[Boston Boxer]

if Joe Milton III slips into the second round, and I consider this possible, then yes. Milton is a s tud.

couple other guys down there I've got my eye on too. Especially Travis and Pratt.

i like Travis as well as a late round pick and stash on the roster...probably IR for the year until he is 100%.

 

[Brotherblues]

I'm definitely on board the fix the line with an LT train. But I only do Alt at 3 (or 6 after a trade down) if I really don't love any of the big 3 or 4 QBs. It's too important a position. But I am 100% behind getting a LT before a WR1. WR1 is a luxury. LT is a requirement.

Exactly. If your two best WRs are rated around 30th in the league, you have a nice pair of weapons.

If your LT is ranked around 30th in the league, you have a turnstile.

 

[DW Toys]

No. MHJ would have to be gone and we'd also have to hate Maye AND Daniels to decide to get Alt.

A tackle is important. But as a singular position it is not as impactful as either of those.

Cousin,
I agree the QB is important but the LT is not far behind. We all can agree that Trent Dilfer was not a elite QB but he got the Ravens into the Super Bowl and won. Jonathan Ogden was his LT. How many posters on this forum will say that Dilfer was the superior player to All ;Pro Ogden in the 2000 Ravens Super Bowl season? Anybody? In that game Trent Dilfer had a passer rating of 80.9 with 153 yards and 1 touchdown.

OK here is how we can swap just one single pick #3 and collect a young QB, get a future first rounder, future 3rd rounder, get a third rounder (pick #90) this year and get three day one starters.....You jest DW?.....NOPE!

Please follow this as it will be part of my annual Trade-A-Rama.

1-Swap our #3 pick to the Vikings for their pick #11 and #23, Their First Rounder in 2025 and Their third Rounder in 2026. That is the going price being robbed to move into the top three for a QB (QB Tax)

2-We call up Monte on the Cards at pick #4 and they seem to be ok in listening to move down as WR is their biggest need and surely they can get one if they take our Trade of #11 and #23 for their #4 and their #90 in the Third Round. They make an extra 60 Draft Value points on us which is equivalent to about a 4th round pick (they have three 3rd round picks in the 2024 Draft). Again QB Tax.

3-Now we have pick #4 plus a third #90 and two future picks. Should we consider one of the Holy Three plus One QBs here? Not yet Sonny Weaver Jr.

4-Sean Payton on Line#1.........."Say fellas in N.E. I am QB shopping and I have a few good players whom I did not Draft so too bad for them. What If I give you our #12 and some of these guys? Who? PRO BOWL CB Patrick Surtain (25), OUR STARING LT Garrett Bolles (31), and PRO BOWL WR Courtland Sutton (29) (the last two have expiring contracts). It helps my terrible CAP situation and gets me perhaps JJ.......AND I WILL INCLUDE my #2 pick in the 2025 Draft" From us..."Sean, That makes the cheese more binding ....OK. Deal.

5-OK so now we have added anothre high pick in 2025 and three starters which we can judge, resign or let go pending 2024 performance.

Our net cost is pick #3. Are these Madden moves? No. They are all possible. Will they happen? Depends on who says yes or no.

So to answer your question do we Draft Alt at pick #3 or sweat it out until pick #12..........OR... pick up the phone and call Poles in Chicago about pick #9 (the Jets want Alt at #10 it is said) The Bears have "O" picks after Round 4. We give them pick #137 in the fifth and #193 in the sixth to move up to #9 from #12 and can pick OT Alt (Titans might be in the mix at #7) or Fashanu......OR....Penix , Nix. How much differenece is there between Penix and JJ McCarthy? Nyet.

And as an added Bonus I am picking up the phone and calling Lynch in SF with a deal he can't refuse. I am swapping our #34 pick in the Second Round (almost a first Mr. Lynch and perhaps my future 2026 third I got from Sean for....Brandon Aiyuk (pending long term contract done deal) and his next to last second rounder #63. If I did Penix at #12 I am going OT here Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie who should be there, to learn from Bolles .........or Nix might be available at #63. If not I am picking DT T'Vondre Sweat 362lbs from Texas with that pick to help Barmore whom has to be upped before the Draft. Pretty good D Line .

Operators are standing by and if you call right now I am "double dipping" at pick #68 in the third and going another QB Spencer Rattler from South Carolina who might even win the job.....and we have heard the stories about the 2025 QB class being junk....trade the loser here in 25.

This is my Tease for Trade-A Rama. Picks after the third round to your discretion. The only caveat might be the Trade with the Bears. You might not need that and save some picks. If Alt is there, go get him and let his get into an OT rotataion and learn so he can start if Bolles wnats to move on (comp round three to us...so there)

Who is to say Penix or Nix might not work out better than the top four? I think the sleeper is Rattler, the only QB who played in a Pro system but for a poor Team. He has the top arm other than Penix.

Stats say only 2 of the top 5 QB will make it as starters. Like Maye some, but don't like those odds. Rather have the added picks. If Penix or Rattler are dog bowel movements, we can package those collected added picks for another shot at the dart board in 2025 but with a much better surrounding cast from this year.....but at least we tried. Aiyuk AND Sutton added to our WR room would be compelling for any rookie QB. A real LT. Gonzo and Surtain at CB? EVEN BETTER.

OK we have turned on single pick into 8 picks. Check my math. These deals are all doable and not herbius weedius talking.

OK Pound on me !
DW Toys
P.S. Sorry Ivan. Not feeling any of the Holy Three plus one.

 

[mgteich]

I.M.O., Get the tackle first, 2024 record, 4-13
Get the QB first, 2024 record, 4-13
Get the WR1 first, 2024 record, 9-8, possible wild card.

If that is true, then we don't need a QB. We should just extend Bissette.

Of course, it isn't true.

 

[Simpelton]

i like Travis as well as a late round pick and stash on the roster...probably IR for the year until he is 100%.

Another thing too. Guys who would normally be good enough to get picked up as QBs in the first round are going to slip into the second. Not everyone needs a QB and the draft is fairly QB rich. There may be some good values left at QB at 35.