Expectations for the defense are hard to describe. I actually saw some good things out of them in the Detroit game in only giving up 16 points when the offense turned the ball over 4 times. That game could have easily been 31 - 0 at half time but the D put on thier big boy pants and forced field goals. With the exception of one Reggie Bush screen they kept big plays to a minimum and that was playing vanilla scemes. Ninkovich made several noteable plays and i am excited to see what him, Jones, and Kelly can do over a season.
The people who are saying top 5 D and records are on crack. This D has too many holes and question marks without the star power to be that kind of win the superbowl solelly because of it sort of defense. What it does have is some nice pieces that will do what Bill asks them to do. There are three stats I believe have the potential to be top 10 caliber which are, listed in order of possibillity, turnovers, points against, and rushing yards.
So my expectations can be broken down into three catagories
The good
Chandler Jones looks the part of a superstar pass rushing defensive end and if healthy I expect him to lead the team with 10 - 12 sacks with 50 or so overall sprinkled out among many candiates. More then enough to be a playoff caliber Defense. I think one thing that gets lost from the superbowl years is we rarely had one guy with 10+ sacks. It was the confusion and having to pick up and focus on everyone that lead to a good superbowl winning pass rush. In my mind it is simular to WR's. Do you want one superstar catching 40% of your offense or 4 pretty good ones so there is no one place to focus.
The linebacking core is easily the strength of the D with 3 very solid starters. The only problem, and it was the same as last year, is they are all very big and primarily built to stop the run. Between Vince, Hightower, Spikes, and Mayo I believe it will be very difficult to run on the pats in any tradition sets. What I am concerned about is the fast elusive backs like CJ Spiller and Reggie Bush. What the LB's lack in speed they make up for in smarts, intuition, and feriosity so I am not overly concerned. Mayo will again get 120+ tackles plus 2 picks, 2 FF, and a sack or two. Spikes is a play maker and I think will get 6 FF, a pick and a couple sacks with Hightower being a combination of the two 3-4 FF, a pick, and a couple sacks.
The acceptable
Starting secondary with Talib, Dennard, and Arrington looks better then it has in awhile. That said it is today's NFL and they will give up a ton of yards especially with the offenses they will be facing. Saints, Falcons, Denver are all on the schedule. With the clear strength being the front 7 opponets throwing the ball 60+% of the time would not surprise me at all. Being thrown at that many times leads to oppurtunites and I think turnovers make or break this group. If the turnover ratio is +25 for the season then the pats are in great shape. If it is only +10 they are in serious trouble as the offense won't be AS potent due to rookie mistakes and a learning curve. I want to be positive so I'll go with 6-7 picks for talib, 5 for McCourty, 4 for Dennard, and 3 for Arrington.
The Ugly
The second safety spot is a mess right now and good safetly play is critical in todays NFL. The amount of resources that have been spent (including moving Devin) for the output is appaling. I know alot of people have gotten on bill for his poor WR drafting but IMO he's safetly drafting has been worse. With the offenses that will be played this year I expect far too many 3 and 8+ conversions. That has been a maddening trend that I do not excpect to change and will keep this D from being considered one of the best. I would bet that they give up 4000+ yards thru the air over the course of the season.
Depth is awful almost across the board. I pray for health because anywhere with the exception of linebacker is very shallow and while the starters are good the back ups are not.
So overall I expect more of the same with slightly better numbers. Fantastic run D, timely turnovers, keep them out of the endzone but give up a lot of FG's, and give up a ton of passing yards.
