ELITE PASS-RUSHERS, Over-analyzed

[MaineMan]

Yup I agree, we need to address the DL so we can stop the run.. Can't disagree with you about that. We face teams in our division who love to run the ball.
The return of Warren, a healthy Brace, Wilkerson/Jordan/Watts/Heyward and another year of experience with Chung and Spikes should only make things that much better

But I like to add, I don't see any players returning or making a big jump to assist our pass defense.. Cunningham might take a step forward but we need someone opposite of him. I like Quinn 1st but if Kerrigan is there, I'd seriously take a look at him..

Well, that's the next step in the "logic" for me. Among TBC, Cunningham and Ninkovich, Ninko played the fewest snaps, but did come up with four sacks playing behind/alongside a D-line that not only did NOT help him find a lot of opportunities to get good pressure, but probably inhibited them by forcing him to pay a lot of extra attention to play-action. The same would apply to Cunningham, of course.

We got 36 sacks in 2010. Back in the days when the D-line run-contain was good, the pass defense was also good and the team generated 40-45 sacks. Typically, three guys got 7-9 sacks each with another three kicking in 4-6 each with a lot of variation from year-to-year in terms of which guy and which position produced the greatest amount of pressure.

My main hypothesis is that we're really not that far off from getting back to that. It's not that difficult for me to imagine Ninko adding another 2-3 sacks, Cunningham jumping up to the 4-5 range, Stroud and a new RDE kicking in 3-4 each (IOW, a total of 8 from the RDE position), Ty Warren getting a couple, Wilfork getting a couple, the ILBs as a group kicking in 4-6 (historically typical), DBs adding a couple and sub-rushers like Wright, TBC, Eric Moore, perhaps Deaderick kicking in anywhere from 3-8 each. Pretty quickly, it adds up to the successful, "studless", broad-based pass-rush we had in the past.

 

[mcsully]

My main hypothesis is that we're really not that far off from getting back to that. It's not that difficult for me to imagine Ninko adding another 2-3 sacks, Cunningham jumping up to the 4-5 range, Stroud and a new RDE kicking in 3-4 each (IOW, a total of 8 from the RDE position), Ty Warren getting a couple, Wilfork getting a couple, the ILBs as a group kicking in 4-6 (historically typical), DBs adding a couple and sub-rushers like Wright, TBC, Eric Moore, perhaps Deaderick kicking in anywhere from 3-8 each. Pretty quickly, it adds up to the successful, "studless", broad-based pass-rush we had in the past.

I'm not a big sack guy by any means.. More of Push the pocket and disrupt the timing..
I'm on the other side with Ninko and Stroud.. Not expecting anything from Stroud, I don't think he'll make the team if we draft Watts/Jordan and a late round DL.. Ninko, his level of play leveled off as time went on and I just don't see the level of talent there. Besides the Miami game, I never saw him do something on a consistant basis..

 

[MaineMan]

I'm not a big sack guy by any means.. More of Push the pocket and disrupt the timing..
I'm on the other side with Ninko and Stroud.. Not expecting anything from Stroud, I don't think he'll make the team if we draft Watts/Jordan and a late round DL.. Ninko, his level of play leveled off as time went on and I just don't see the level of talent there. Besides the Miami game, I never saw him do something on a consistant basis..

Well, until I decide to pony up the $100 for ProFootballFocus stat access, I don't really have any numbers for QB hurries or other measures of pressure beyond using sacks as a sort of "tip of the iceberg" indicator for comparison purposes.

We'll have to remain in disagreement about Stroud and Ninko. Unless one of our (very) late-round DL from 2010 or a new late-rounder from this draft REALLY steps up into the role, I don't see another reserve/potential starter 34DE who's really close to offering what Stroud can in terms of length, athleticism (yeah, even at his age) and (obviously) general DL experience. And you already know how I feel about Ninko, so I won't rehash that, except to say that Vrabel best statistical performances in 2001 also came at the expense of teams with records as bad or worse than Miami's was in 2010.

 

[mcsully]

Well, until I decide to pony up the $100 for ProFootballFocus stat access, I don't really have any numbers for QB hurries or other measures of pressure beyond using sacks as a sort of "tip of the iceberg" indicator for comparison purposes.

We'll have to remain in disagreement about Stroud and Ninko. Unless one of our (very) late-round DL from 2010 or a new late-rounder from this draft REALLY steps up into the role, I don't see another reserve/potential starter 34DE who's really close to offering what Stroud can in terms of length, athleticism (yeah, even at his age) and (obviously) general DL experience. And you already know how I feel about Ninko, so I won't rehash that, except to say that Vrabel best statistical performances in 2001 also came at the expense of teams with records as bad or worse than Miami's was in 2010.

2001 Mike Vrabel Game Stats - Mike Vrabel 2001 Season Game Stats - Fantasy Football Challenge

I found some info showing Vrabel's play was steady the entire seasonand he didn't peak at any point..His stats were better than Ninko, and something the stats won't tell.
Vrabel in his 1st year was better against the run. He sealed the outside


To think we'll get another player to make the jump like vrabel did is highly unlikely and should not be counted on.. What should be counted on is adding another player with talent to the OLB position

 

[jukes]

Or we could help our linebackers out and upgrade the defensive line

 

[MaineMan]

2001 Mike Vrabel Game Stats - Mike Vrabel 2001 Season Game Stats - Fantasy Football Challenge

I found some info showing Vrabel's play was steady the entire seasonand he didn't peak at any point..His stats were better than Ninko, and something the stats won't tell.
Vrabel in his 1st year was better against the run. He sealed the outside


To think we'll get another player to make the jump like vrabel did is highly unlikely and should not be counted on.. What should be counted on is adding another player with talent to the OLB position

Not sure how you're seeing that Vrabel's stats were better than Ninko's. Even using the site you linked to, at worst they were equivalent.

Vrabel started 12 games and played with a very good, veteran D-line with McGinest on the other side. Ninko started 10 games and played with the worst D-line in BB's tenure with rookie Cunningham (or TBC) on the other side.

But what I really don't get is how a player who's already matched Vrabel's NFL production at the same stage in his career CAN'T be counted on to develop into a better player, but an unproven rookie CAN and SHOULD be counted on to do so.

 

[mcsully]

Not sure how you're seeing that Vrabel's stats were better than Ninko's. Even using the site you linked to, at worst they were equivalent.

:

first I was answering your question earlier

, except to say that Vrabel best statistical performances in 2001 also came at the expense of teams with records as bad or worse than Miami's was in 2010.

The link I provided basically reveals this isn't true and vrabel was steady all season long, something I stated earlier. My other point is Vrabel was very good from Day 1 sealing the edge and from what I saw this past year, I didn't see as much from Ninko

Bottom line, to envision Ninko even turning into a poor man's version of Vrabel is crazy.. The chances of that are like hitting on another Brady in the draft..

He's better suited for a Mike Wright role...

 

[mcsully]

But what I really don't get is how a player who's already matched Vrabel's NFL production at the same stage in his career CAN'T be counted on to develop into a better player, but an unproven rookie CAN and SHOULD be counted on to do so.

Sure I can.. We draft really well and our picks in the 1st two rounds usually make an impact.. Look at how Mayo, McCourty and Gronk turned out..

in 11 drafts, BB has missed on maybe 1 1st rounder, LM.. You should feel a lot more comfortable with a high pick rookie in their over Ninko..