ELITE PASS-RUSHERS, Over-analyzed

[mcsully]

Which comes right back to the ultimate question - where is the quality in this draft outside the top 10 and DL?

If it's not there, diversify and see who takes off.

Gotta love RDP when you are waiting for the resturant to clear the table


You should read my other posts to Mainman.. Well pick 60 and 17 should get us to 9 or 10 and target Quinn (if we falls there).. And 27, 33 should get us back up to the teens to pick Watts/Jodan..

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Gotta love RDP when you are waiting for the resturant to clear the table


You should read my other posts to Mainman.. Well pick 60 and 17 should get us to 9 or 10 and target Quinn (if we falls there).. And 27, 33 should get us back up to the teens to pick Watts/Jodan..

This leads to another conundrum: is Quinn elite within the context of NE's scheme? If he is an elite talent, do all his other factors (health, behavior, work ethic, etc.) align with NE's team building process to make him an elite player? I lean towards no, with enough of a tilt as to see any move up for him in the negative.

Elite players for NE: Miller, Dareus; possibly Fairley, Green, Peterson, or Jones. Which is why I look to diversify.

 

[mcsully]

This leads to another conundrum: is Quinn elite within the context of NE's scheme? If he is an elite talent, do all his other factors (health, behavior, work ethic, etc.) align with NE's team building process to make him an elite player? I lean towards no, with enough of a tilt as to see any move up for him in the negative.

Elite players for NE: Miller, Dareus; possibly Fairley, Green, Peterson, or Jones. Which is why I look to diversify.

Interesting. I look at what BB gets out nickovich and tully and I drool at what could be done with a talent of Quinn.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Interesting. I look at what BB gets out nickovich and tully and I drool at what could be done with a talent of Quinn.

You're comparing a 5th round pick to a 1st round projection, so be it. One worked hard for every opportunity, and when given one has succeeded beyond expectations of most observers. The other worked hard to overcome a serious health scare, but with two years of actual playing, he's very raw, and measurably slow off the snap.

The one, maybe he could, not much risk with a day three pick (or street free agent signing); the other, maybe he could, but you've got to expend a great deal of draft value for a shot at him, with no guarantee he's got the goods. H'mmmm, have I mentioned I like Karl Klug projected to the seventh round for OLB?

 

[mcsully]

You should read the link I posted.. Shows a break down of the past 10 drafts and % of each pick working out..You'll notice %'s stay the same but premium positions and players typically come in the top 10. And again, I'm only saying offer 17 and 60 to move up to 9 or 10.. Considering we have 9 picks, and r few needs, giving up #4 isn't going to crush our dreams.

I'm comparing talent to talent and Quinn is a serious upgrade at the position.. Kids a natural athlete who loves the game..


Nicko did fine but in no way should be a starter.. He's better suited for being a roll player, like Guyton and Wright..

You're comparing a 5th round pick to a 1st round projection, so be it. One worked hard for every opportunity, and when given one has succeeded beyond expectations of most observers. The other worked hard to overcome a serious health scare, but with two years of actual playing, he's very raw, and measurably slow off the snap.

The one, maybe he could, not much risk with a day three pick (or street free agent signing); the other, maybe he could, but you've got to expend a great deal of draft value for a shot at him, with no guarantee he's got the goods. H'mmmm, have I mentioned I like Karl Klug projected to the seventh round for OLB?

 

[MaineMan]

You should read the link I posted.. Shows a break down of the past 10 drafts and % of each pick working out..You'll notice %'s stay the same but premium positions and players typically come in the top 10. And again, I'm only saying offer 17 and 60 to move up to 9 or 10.. Considering we have 9 picks, and r few needs, giving up #4 isn't going to crush our dreams.

I'm comparing talent to talent and Quinn is a serious upgrade at the position.. Kids a natural athlete who loves the game..


Nicko did fine but in no way should be a starter.. He's better suited for being a roll player, like Guyton and Wright..

I read the article at the link, which is basically just Fran Duffy's opinion on whether a guy has been a "boom" or a "bust" and doesn't really qualify as "empirical" proof to begin with. And I won't really get into Duffy's estimations that Brandon Graham and JPP are "booms" (really? already?) or that Quentin Jammer and Aaron Curry are "busts" (that's Curry, not Maybin, BTW).

The other thing is that Duffy's list includes the "success rate" of ALL positions, including QB, OT, CB, etc. You're applying that overall rate to the "pass-rushing 34 OLB" position specifically, which may or may not work very well.

Going through the list - all the way down to #16 - there have been only four guys drafted into a 34 as OLB: Ware, Merriman, English and Gholston. Ware has been a great success over a long period of time. Merriman was a great success for a couple of years. English hasn't done much yet in 2 seasons except as a situational sub-rusher. Gholston was clearly a bust. Being generous, that's a 50% "success rate", but it's also only 4 guys out of 160 picks - a really, really small sample.

Expanding the analysis to include edge-rushers at 43DE, I came up with the following additions:

Peppers - always a 43DE
Freeney - always a 43DE
Cushing - a 4-3 guy so far; remains to be seen how he does in the new 34
Orakpo - seemed to do fairly well his first season in the Skins 34 conversion

IMHO, the "boom/bust" jury is still out on the 2010 rookies Graham, JPP and Morgan, all of whom were still drafted to be 4-3 DEs. [Just to be clear, I was a big supporter of the Pats taking Graham in the 1st round last draft because I thought he was a solid player who would set the edge well from the get-go and whose pass-rush would be a nice bonus. But that would have been for pick #22. IIRC, I never advocated trading UP for him, much less to #13 as the Eagles did.]

In the "bust" category, there's Tyson Jackson (who was drafted as a 34DE and, so, doesn't really count in this) and Maybin, originally drafted into a 4-3 but a bust regardless.

So, that adds maybe four guys to the "success" side of the ledger, but only one of them, so far, has made a successful conversion to 34OLB. And it's still only 4 guys out of 160 picks - a very small sample size compared to the whole.

IOW, however correct your claims might be regarding the overall success rate of early picks and, therefore, the "talent level" of higher picks, there doesn't seem to be an enormous amount of evidence in that article to support applying that to 43DE-to-34OLB conversions.

 

[mcsully]

IOW, however correct your claims might be regarding the overall success rate of early picks and, therefore, the "talent level" of higher picks, there doesn't seem to be an enormous amount of evidence in that article to support applying that to 43DE-to-34OLB conversions.

My point wasn't about conversions but the point moving up doesn't hurt you statistically..
People keep saying "History tells us moving up is not good".. Case in point, the article clearly shows that is not true.

 

[MaineMan]

My point wasn't about conversions but the point moving up doesn't hurt you statistically..
People keep saying "History tells us moving up is not good".. Case in point, the article clearly shows that is not true.

Well, I'm not one who keeps saying, "History tells us moving up is not good."

According to the Duffy article, the OVERALL "success rate" of the last 160 picks in the top ten has been - what was it again? 50%? Keep in mind that this is an OPINION piece, so it "clearly shows" really not much of anything.

But my objection, even accepting Duffy's percentages as accurate, is that you're recommending a move up for Quinn (do I have that right?), who WOULD be a 43DE to 34OLB conversion for us. And you're basing that recommendation on a general principle derived almost entirely from the success rate of OL, DL, QB, etc. taken in the top ten, when actually, such DE-OLB conversions represent only about 4% of the 160 picks made between #1 and #16 over the ten years examined.

That's just not "proof" enough for me.

 

[mcsully]

That's just not "proof" enough for me.

I wouldn't call it an opinion article. He clearly provides information on percentages and the players being picked at every selection..

As pointed out earlier, there are not enough samples to to forgo a conclusion.. .. But considering my point is to move up and AGAIn you are forgetting I want a RDE and OLB, we could target a RDE.

I'd perfer Quinn because my eyes tell me he would be a beast in our system.. Throw in the fact we were almost out of base formation 60% of the time, Quinn could get a lot of reps and have a bigger impact then a LT or Guard

Like I said before and have heard Pat Kirwan preach, "just because one team makes a mistake, shouldn't alter your decision"..

If you want guarantees, I can't.. Life doesn't offer them.. But I'll give you something to think about.. Pats scouting department has hit around 90% on their 1st round picks.. Getting contributions from each one.. I am fully confident we can make the pick and BB can coach the player up..

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

If you want guarantees, I can't.. Life doesn't offer them.. But I'll give you something to think about.. Pats scouting department has hit around 90% on their 1st round picks.. Getting contributions from each one.. I am fully confident we can make the pick and BB can coach the player up..

Which begs the question, what attention has NE given to any of the top DL/DE/OLB prospects expected to go in the first half of the round? Miller we know was scouted last season, but as he shot up the draftnik boards and Oakland proceeded to butt rape the AFC West into a mediocre season, he's not apparently been on the NE radar. Dareus, Fairley, Quinn, Watt, Bowers, Kerrigan ... no private workouts or visits yet.

What we are seeing: Castonzo has Scar reeducate him at his Pro-Day (and he's a local visit so low profile otherwise), Solder visited, Ty Smith visited, Prince Amukamara visited. The only DL carrying a high first by draftniks (and a second round grade by me) is Cam Jordan ... the rest of NE's PW and V kids are all late first at best, projecting into round three.

I'm glad I don't have my heart set on any one player before round seven! You might wish to minimize your investment in Mr. Quinn, because #17 seems destined for OT or a sliding CB/FS.

 

[MaineMan]

I wouldn't call it an opinion article. He clearly provides information on percentages and the players being picked at every selection..

As pointed out earlier, there are not enough samples to to forgo a conclusion.. .. But considering my point is to move up and AGAIn you are forgetting I want a RDE and OLB, we could target a RDE.

I'd perfer Quinn because my eyes tell me he would be a beast in our system.. Throw in the fact we were almost out of base formation 60% of the time, Quinn could get a lot of reps and have a bigger impact then a LT or Guard

Like I said before and have heard Pat Kirwan preach, "just because one team makes a mistake, shouldn't alter your decision"..

If you want guarantees, I can't.. Life doesn't offer them.. But I'll give you something to think about.. Pats scouting department has hit around 90% on their 1st round picks.. Getting contributions from each one.. I am fully confident we can make the pick and BB can coach the player up..

Here's the thing. You like what you've seen of Quinn, enough so that you think he'd be a great impact player in BB's system, enough of an impact player that BB should trade up to get him. That's your opinion. I may disagree with that opinion, but you don't have to justify it. I mean, it's certainly your option to try to provide objective "evidence" to support your position, if you feel the need to, and that's fine, too.

All I'm really pointing out is that the "evidence" you've chosen for support may not be as "objective" as you portray it to be. Duffy has listed the 10 players selected at each draft slot during the past 10 drafts and classified them as "boom" or "bust" - in his opinion. And the success percentages he cites are based on that.

 

[manxman2601]

FYI

Football Outsiders has the latest Sackseer projections for the potential edge rushers (sorry, can't post a link but it's on their front page).

Von Miller comfortably heads the list, followed by Justin Houston, Ryan Kerrigan and Da'Quan Bowers all closely bunched.

However, if you are a fan of Robert Quinn, you may want to re-appraise your desire to trade up for him (providing of course that you put any faith in Sackseer).

 

[mcsully]

Here's the thing. You like what you've seen of Quinn, enough so that you think he'd be a great impact player in BB's system, enough of an impact player that BB should trade up to get him. That's your opinion. .

Everything is objective in life.. And this is one small area of our lives where we like to come and read different opinions from different posters.

I think most people will agree, having a little fact to base their opinion doesn't hurt.. ESP when some posts are based on fiction (ie, trading up is a bad thing).

Your right, I like Quinn.. And its funny, after watching tonight on NFLN, Mayock and the crew feel he's better suited for a 4-3.. But at the same time, they feel he can play a D.Ware role in a 3-4... So we all have our opinions.. mine is slightly stronger than others on addressing the pass rush.. Sitting in the stands for another year and the idea of having to watch Sanchez and Henne look like Marino and Elway against our defense just makes me want to throw up

 

[mcsully]

I'm glad I don't have my heart set on any one player before round seven! You might wish to minimize your investment in Mr. Quinn, because #17 seems destined for OT or a sliding CB/FS.

You are absolutely correct.. Its a bad decision to hitch my love to one player because we all know at the end of the day, we'll be scratching our heads and asking why BB did this (not saying thats all bad)

 

[MaineMan]

Everything is objective in life.. And this is one small area of our lives where we like to come and read different opinions from different posters.

I think most people will agree, having a little fact to base their opinion doesn't hurt.. ESP when some posts are based on fiction (ie, trading up is a bad thing).

Your right, I like Quinn.. And its funny, after watching tonight on NFLN, Mayock and the crew feel he's better suited for a 4-3.. But at the same time, they feel he can play a D.Ware role in a 3-4... So we all have our opinions.. mine is slightly stronger than others on addressing the pass rush.. Sitting in the stands for another year and the idea of having to watch Sanchez and Henne look like Marino and Elway against our defense just makes me want to throw up

Get a D-line that can take away the ability of Sanchez and Henne to lean on their strong ground games and maybe they don't look so hot anymore. Heck, even the Packers were able to run on us, which certainly helped Flynn look better.

 

[mcsully]

Get a D-line that can take away the ability of Sanchez and Henne to lean on their strong ground games and maybe they don't look so hot anymore. Heck, even the Packers were able to run on us, which certainly helped Flynn look better.

I agree... Having Warren back and a Watts/jordan will help out


yea the Packers rolled up the yds and points on us.. one of those rare games where BB was out matched in the X and O's department..

 

[VJCPatriot]

yea the Packers rolled up the yds and points on us.. one of those rare games where BB was out matched in the X and O's department..

Outmatched, Huh? Didn't we win that game? Yes, we did 31-27. Look we were going up against the team that ended up being the Super Bowl Champs. Aaron Rodgers had an MVP caliber year. You have to expect to give up points against a team like that. I think our personnel still isn't there yet as far as the pass defense goes. You can draw up Xs and Os all you want, but our defensive unit was ranked 30th against the pass that season so why is the way the game turned out any surprise?

The disagreement of course is how to improve that pass defense. Does it start with better DBs, better linebackers, or getting stronger up front? I think with the Pats defense it starts up front. Get an athletic defensive end who can put pressure on the OL like a Seymour or Peppers. Then develop another passrusher with upside like Cunningham. Also upgrade the slot/nickel CB or at least introduce some competition there. If we can upgrade all those things we'll have a better defense. It's not any one thing that can magically 'fix' the pass defense, it has to come from a number of across the board improvements.

 

[MaineMan]

I agree... Having Warren back and a Watts/jordan will help out


yea the Packers rolled up the yds and points on us.. one of those rare games where BB was out matched in the X and O's department..

Well, that's really all I've been getting at. If you look at the QBs who performed better against us than perhaps they should have, all of them were able to do so using their running game as a cudgel to elevate the effectiveness of their play action. I mean, Colt McCoy didn't beat us with his arm and superlative quarterbacking skills.

And, when your D-line is a sieve against the run, there's only so much you can do with the Xs and Os to compensate - the main thing being extensive use of LBs and safeties, which, of course, takes them out of position (or otherwise limits their opportunities) for doing other things.

 

[mcsully]

Outmatched, Huh? Didn't we win that game? Yes, we did 31-27. Look we were going up against the team that ended up being the Super Bowl Champs. Aaron Rodgers had an MVP caliber year. You have to expect to give up points against a team like that. I think our personnel still isn't there yet as far as the pass defense goes. You can draw up Xs and Os all you want, but our defensive unit was ranked 30th against the pass that season so why is the way the game turned out any surprise?

Um.. Just because we won doesn't mean we won the x and o game.. If Rogers played, we would have lost.. I was at the game and saw first hand how the defense looked confused all night.. McCarthy had BB number all night and if not for the inexperience of Flynn, the Pats would have lost.. He was lost at the end of the game.

The disagreement of course is how to improve that pass defense. Does it start with better DBs, better linebackers, or getting stronger up front? I think with the Pats defense it starts up front. Get an athletic defensive end who can put pressure on the OL like a Seymour or Peppers. Then develop another passrusher with upside like Cunningham. Also upgrade the slot/nickel CB or at least introduce some competition there. If we can upgrade all those things we'll have a better defense. It's not any one thing that can magically 'fix' the pass defense, it has to come from a number of across the board improvements.

Guess you missed my 10 posts in the thread.. I totally agree with you.. We need help up front.

 

[mcsully]

Well, that's really all I've been getting at. If you look at the QBs who performed better against us than perhaps they should have, all of them were able to do so using their running game as a cudgel to elevate the effectiveness of their play action. I mean, Colt McCoy didn't beat us with his arm and superlative quarterbacking skills.

And, when your D-line is a sieve against the run, there's only so much you can do with the Xs and Os to compensate - the main thing being extensive use of LBs and safeties, which, of course, takes them out of position (or otherwise limits their opportunities) for doing other things.

Yup I agree, we need to address the DL so we can stop the run.. Can't disagree with you about that. We face teams in our division who love to run the ball.
The return of Warren, a healthy Brace, Wilkerson/Jordan/Watts/Heyward and another year of experience with Chung and Spikes should only make things that much better

But I like to add, I don't see any players returning or making a big jump to assist our pass defense.. Cunningham might take a step forward but we need someone opposite of him. I like Quinn 1st but if Kerrigan is there, I'd seriously take a look at him..