ELITE PASS-RUSHERS, Over-analyzed

[MaineMan]

Didn't you also pick Michael Crabtree for the Ryan Leaf bust award and say you'd "wet yourself" if the Pats in 2009 came away with a draft of Clint Sintim (with the 24th pick!), Macho Harris, CJ Spiller, and Nic Harris?

Guilty of being on the Nic Harris bandwagon, though as a 3rd/4th round pick. At this time, I thought they might still be looking for a Rodney Harrison SS/LB "tweener" and Harris seemed like a reasonable fit, sorta like Tank what's-his-name who they picked up in FA from CHI (though slightly more likely to stay healthy). Then of course, BUF snagged him and tried to make him into an LB. Not so much.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Didn't you also pick Michael Crabtree for the Ryan Leaf bust award and say you'd "wet yourself" if the Pats in 2009 came away with a draft of Clint Sintim (with the 24th pick!), Macho Harris, CJ Spiller, and Nic Harris?

.....How did Crabtree do last year>>> He is a punk, I knew it then and know it now, How bout my "you want no part of Dez Branyt rants, they too are also looking pretty smart. I wanted Spiller for a RB to replace Maroney, nobody thought that BJGE would turn out to be a 1,000 back.

If you want to go back even further you can find this gem...

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/54346-who-will-biggest-bust-page2.html

 

[Don Kipines]

.....How did Crabtree do last year>>> He is a punk, I knew it then and know it now, How bout my "you want no part of Dez Branyt rants, they too are also looking pretty smart. I wanted Spiller for a RB to replace Maroney, nobody thought that BJGE would turn out to be a 1,000 back.

If you want to go back even further you can find this gem...

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/54346-who-will-biggest-bust-page2.html

That was a good catch! Although I have to say I prefer the 2009 post where you called for the following draft:

#23: Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia (if he is there, I have to take him and trade Maroney for extra picks)
#34: Robert Ayers (DE Tennesee) a beast that nodody is paying attention to
#47: Connor Barwin (DE Cinncinnati) the closest thing to Mike Vrable, since Mike Vrabel
#58: Eric Wood (C Louisville) smart can play C and G and quick (for a lineman)
#89: Brandon Gibson (WR Washington St. ) under vauled WR on an absolutely putrid team
#97: Terrance Taylor (DT Michigan) depth, replacement for Mike Wright
#120: Mohamed Massaquoi (WR Georgia) *binky alert, think Troy Brown
@#152: Pat White (QB West Virgina) just wins

You basically bullseyed all the high-profile busts of that draft, which is pretty cool. If you'd only passed on Eric Wood, you could have really cleaned up.

 

[jukes]

to early to tell on knowshon

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

That was a good catch! Although I have to say I prefer the 2009 post where you called for the following draft:

#23: Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia (if he is there, I have to take him and trade Maroney for extra picks)
#34: Robert Ayers (DE Tennesee) a beast that nodody is paying attention to
#47: Connor Barwin (DE Cinncinnati) the closest thing to Mike Vrable, since Mike Vrabel
#58: Eric Wood (C Louisville) smart can play C and G and quick (for a lineman)
#89: Brandon Gibson (WR Washington St. ) under vauled WR on an absolutely putrid team
#97: Terrance Taylor (DT Michigan) depth, replacement for Mike Wright
#120: Mohamed Massaquoi (WR Georgia) *binky alert, think Troy Brown
@#152: Pat White (QB West Virgina) just wins

You basically bullseyed all the high-profile busts of that draft, which is pretty cool. If you'd only passed on Eric Wood, you could have really cleaned up.

Moreno in the Pats offense would be incredible, I would trade #33 for him right now. Massaquoi is an outstanding WR for the Browns. Wood is a very good lineman. Ayers has not been the player that I thought, BUT do you honestly think that coaching might make a difference? Pat White was worth a flyer at #152, he is only a bust because Miami took him in the second round.

Plus that mock is from two months before the draft. Nobody here ever claims to be Nostradamus, I have made fun of my Terrel instead of Seymour rants for years.

Now lets talk about your selective editing, that was a mock draft game that was restricted by poswition and draft rankings at that time (2 months before the draft) and I see that you failed to include my disclaimer: Strictly by players available at or below the rankings..... that appears above those picks.

 

[sg14]

Reading that article, I get the "could be, should be" story.

Nothing against your recommendation, but I get nervous about drafting a big DL from a small school. The competition is not the SEC, How does a person really know to rate the player.

I guess I am a "draft conservative", if not confident the one player solves the problem, draft two. I hope we concentrate on drafting bigs in the early rounds, then worry the other positions.

Some people here are saying Muhammad Wilkerson's ceiling is Ty Warren - which is not a bad thing at all. Still, there's one cantankerous poster who claims Wilkerson brings a blend of Warren and Mike Wright to the table, based on watching him in a couple games (both with an impact on the MAC championship, so they weren't throw away games). I'll give you one guess who that curmudgeon might be.

Here's a more professional perspective, if written to smooze connections in the industry a bit - it's worth it to click on the author's name and read his bio.
Breaking down Muhammad Wilkerson and Phil Taylor

 

[mcsully]

That doesn't make any sense. You'd rather have Jerome McDougle right away instead of Justin Tuck two years from now?

I'm aiming for a impact player like Ware or someone who makes an impact for day one. Our needs are few in my opinion and adding another 4 or 5 rookies won't get us any closer to the end game.
We can go round and round on teams moving up or moving back, picking up an all pro in the 4th round.. From my perspective and now mike reiss and the guys at Sirius, its time to move up and target a player



Of course its a crap shoot and with the rookie salary cap, you won't have to worry about paying 60 millions dollars to an unproven player. Again its not about says, its about putting the pressure on. The pats have never been a team to over pay a player because he does one things well (all the players you mentioned are one trick ponies)

50% bust rate is standard in the 1st round, I pointed that out in the article I linked. But if you looked carefully, a top 10 player is more likely to bring you an impact player and game changer for the same ODDS..


If we don't add talent to our dire need of a pass rusher, we're not going to get over the hump. Its that simple

 

[mcsully]

This was the post of yours that I last responded to:



Perhaps I should have simply referred you to comment #55 in this thread.

U should read mine to.. You keep stating stuff I've agreed on

Correct. I have not responded to this question - mainly because I don't understand it.

Not sure I can put it any simpler.... When Brady retires, do we leave a hole and hope we find someone who drops to us or we pick late in the round (using BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE) or do we target someone.. Better?

Actually, I've posted an opinion on this a few times, though probably not in these two most recent "pass-rusher" threads. The NFL may be a "passing league", but the Pats don't play all other 31 teams in the NFL every season. They play a 13-team subset. For the past 2-3 years that subset has included about 8 games against the top ten RUNNING teams in the league with four games against teams in our own division, MIA and the JETS, who run that ball just about as much as they pass. Seems to me a wise strategy to configure your roster and otherwise prepare to handle the offenses you WILL face in order to get to the playoffs rather than for the other teams in the league who you WON'T face if you don't get TO the playoffs.

I agree..Problem is we make Henne and Sanchez look good on 3rd down. We are one of the worst 3rd down teams in the league..

In this situation, yes, you DO work to stop the run first. And that's really where the defense - specifically the D-line - failed against the JETS offense. If our D-line had been able to stop their ground game on its own without requiring so much extra help from LBs and safeties, we'd have been able to put the entire ballgame on Sanchez's shoulders - and THAT we could have beaten. But we couldn't stop their ground game and make their offense "Sanchez-only" and they beat us (and, yes, offensive and special teams errors ALSO made a huge difference in that result).

you've probably missed my post a few times also. I'm a huge fan of picking a combination of Watts/Jordan and Quinn.. So we agree, the need is there

During the 2009 regular season, the Saints had about the same number of sacks and pressures as the Pats did in 2010. Their D-line was a bit better against the run, however. The didn't really demonstrate that they could "get after the QB" until DC Gregg Williams elected to bring the house on nearly every play in their playoff games against ancient and immobile Kurt Warner and Bret Favre. Yet they had only one post-season sack.

Great point.. Its not about the sacks or the numbers.. Its about the QB pressure and forcing 3rd and outs.. And again gets back to where I agree with you, we need to add a RDE..

 

[Off The Grid]

Nobody is saying the Pats don't need a pass-rush. We all agree they need a pass-rush. The question is, how do you get those players? And history shows that the absolute worst strategy you can employ is trading multiple high picks for an unproven draft prospect. Ask Jacksonville how trading four picks to Baltimore to get up to the #8 slot to draft Derrick Harvey worked out for them. In the last ten years there have been 12 defensive ends taken in the top 10; six of them have been outright busts, and by that I mean guys who literally contributed nothing at all. We're talking about names like Harvey, Derrick Morgan, Vernon Gholston, Jamaal Anderson, and Jamaal Reynolds. If you want to go beyond the top 10, you can add Aaron Maybin, Michael Haynes, Jerome McDougle, David Pollack, Jarvis Moss, Erasmus James, Robert Ayers, Kenechi Udeze, Lawrence Jackson, Jerry Hughes and a few others. Again, these aren't just the guys who underperformed, they're guys who gave you absolutely nothing.

Nothing hurts a team more than a high draft pick who is a zero contributor, because it's a double-or triple-whammy: not only are you spending the draft ammo, you're also spending big-time money, which you then can't spend on other needs. Then, also, if you miss on a high draft pick, you still have a hole on the roster and you have to spend another pick there next year.

So it's bad enough to reach for need when we're only talking about one pick. But trading multiple high picks is taking a huge risk. If you miss, it sets your team back years, because you not only have multiple holes on your roster, you're tying up money in the busted draft pick.

The Pats' draft strategy is the best because it recognizes that luck plays a huge role in draft success. The only way to beat luck is to increase the number of chances (and, conversely, minimize the damage of failed picks). The math on the draft clearly shows that the rate of lost value as you go down in the draft is a lot lower than the corresponding increase in the bust rate. In other words, you tend to get more value with multiple lower picks as opposed to one high pick.

The counter-argument is that, sure, that works if you're looking for depth, but the Pats need impact players on defense. But if you look at the premier pass-rushers in the league, yes, a lot of them came from high picks -- guys like Julius Peppers and Dwight Freeney. But just as many were middle-round guys or undrafted guys. Look at Cameron Wake (udfa), Shaun Phillips (4th), Umeniyora and Tuck (second- and third-round, respectively), Charles Johnson (3rd round), Robert Mathis (5th) and Jared Allen (4th). Jerome Harrison and James Hall were undrafted free agents.

You're almost always better off sitting tight at your draft spot or even trading down a little, making your selection, and then praying that one of them turns out to be an effective pass-rusher. Do you want one shot at Kenechi Udeze in the first round, or three or four shots at Shaun Phillips in the fourth? The impatience to jump up and spend big resources on a celebrated pass-rush prospect comes purely from all the pre-draft hype, which is designed to make us all think that some of these guys are sure things. The reality is that nobody really knows how these guys will turn out. Not even the coaches. The Patriots to their credit seem to realize how often even they screw things up, which is why they almost never bet a lot on one player. They will move up a little to get a guy they like (i.e. Gronkowski), but for the most part they play it conservatively and shoot for depth. So if you're advocating betting the farm on Von Miller, remember that he has about a 50% chance of turning into Vernon Gholston.

That is the very best Argument I've ever seen for Trading Down.

A MASTERPIECE, Brother Don. :rocker:

 

[MaineMan]

U should read mine to.. You keep stating stuff I've agreed on










Not sure I can put it any simpler.... When Brady retires, do we leave a hole and hope we find someone who drops to us or we pick late in the round (using BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE) or do we target someone.. Better?




I agree..Problem is we make Henne and Sanchez look good on 3rd down. We are one of the worst 3rd down teams in the league..


you've probably missed my post a few times also. I'm a huge fan of picking a combination of Watts/Jordan and Quinn.. So we agree, the need is there







Great point.. Its not about the sacks or the numbers.. Its about the QB pressure and forcing 3rd and outs.. And again gets back to where I agree with you, we need to add a RDE..

Well done then. Seems to me that the only thing we really disagree on is the need for "an elite pass rusher" to improve our pass rush. You clearly believe that and elite pass rusher is what generating an effective pass rush in BB's scheme absolutely requires and that, without such a player, we're not going to generate sufficient pass-rush and, thus, have little chance of making it back to the SB.

I disagree. I believe that a restored elite 30-front gets our defense back to the pass-rush effectiveness it had in 2001-2004. However, from your perspective, the urge to trade up to get an elite pass-rusher is entirely understandable and NOT entirely off-the-mark based on the stats I've posted and that you've alluded to.

WRT our draft strategy "when Brady retires", I don't think it's applicable because I don't think BB waits that long to come up with a successor. I believe we'll be seeing a stream of candidates coming through between now and then with the odds favoring BB finding a guy who'll maintain Superbowl level competitiveness for us , IF we continue to have a solid, deep team around him. Note that I avoided using the term "replacement for Brady". Realistically, we're NOT going to see another QB of Brady's HoF caliber playing for the Pats in our lifetimes no matter what BB does. The odds are simply stacked against such an occurrence. However, getting a guy who's "good enough" may well be within the realm of possibility.

 

[mcsully]

Well done then. Seems to me that the only thing we really disagree on is the need for "an elite pass rusher" to improve our pass rush. You clearly believe that and elite pass rusher is what generating an effective pass rush in BB's scheme absolutely requires and that, without such a player, we're not going to generate sufficient pass-rush and, thus, have little chance of making it back to the SB.

I'm looking for an impact player, stats mean little to me.. Esp in our style of defense. As someone posted earlier, Vrabel had something like 12.5 sacks.. But McGinnest and Vrabel would bring the pressure and we saw a lot more 3 and outs.

WRT our draft strategy "when Brady retires", I don't think it's applicable because I don't think BB waits that long to come up with a successor. I believe we'll be seeing a stream of candidates coming through between now and then with the odds favoring BB finding a guy who'll maintain Superbowl level competitiveness for us , IF we continue to have a solid, deep team around him. Note that I avoided using the term "replacement for Brady". Realistically, we're NOT going to see another QB of Brady's HoF caliber playing for the Pats in our lifetimes no matter what BB does. The odds are simply stacked against such an occurrence. However, getting a guy who's "good enough" may well be within the realm of possibility.

No need to equate any other variables into it.. Just a simple question.. If we don't have a replacement for brady and we're sitting there with no Qb. Do we address it by moving up? Or sit back and continue with BPA?
My take is we would pull a Shanny and move up and ge a Cutler.. Or follow Tanny and get a Sanchez. While Sanchez isn't great, He's definitely stabalized the QB position for the Jets.

My thought process follows the same line of thought. How this team is constituted and using 5 picks to resolve the lack of talent issue at RDE and OLB should pay off in the short term and long term.

 

[mcsully]

That is the very best Argument I've ever seen for Trading Down.

A MASTERPIECE, Brother Don. :rocker:

interesting because in the earlier post I provided a link stating trading down didn't increase your odds actually it generally stays the same and you get less of an impact player..

Each to his own

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Reading that article, I get the "could be, should be" story.

Nothing against your recommendation, but I get nervous about drafting a big DL from a small school. The competition is not the SEC, How does a person really know to rate the player.

I guess I am a "draft conservative", if not confident the one player solves the problem, draft two. I hope we concentrate on drafting bigs in the early rounds, then worry the other positions.

Not an entirely unreasonable reaction to Wilkerson's background or Gabriel's assessment. In this case I've had the benefit of watching the kid play, my lying eyes have a more positive outlook. I also have a higher opinion of mid-major conferences like the MAC in terms of player quality and experience ... it's not the SEC or Big-10, but they deliver good kids every year if you shop carefully.

There's one 'surefire' 3-4 DL in this class, Marcel Dareus, after him there are a lot of players with unrealized potential, some have shown signs of reaching for that potential, others not so much ... which makes your preference to draft two kids on the DL very reasonable and part of my own thinking. Personally, when I start trying to mock this class out, I find myself wanting to draft at least three DL. Wilkerson or Watt early, Jenkins or Paea, or maybe Ellis on day two (if Ellis' off-field issues are resolved), and someone like Neild or Ian Williams or Brandon Bair on day three. I want a battle royal for the seven D-line slots normally kept by NE, and the one or two PSquad slots. Let competition rule the Line!

 

[MaineMan]

I'm looking for an impact player, stats mean little to me.. Esp in our style of defense. As someone posted earlier, Vrabel had something like 12.5 sacks.. But McGinnest and Vrabel would bring the pressure and we saw a lot more 3 and outs.



No need to equate any other variables into it.. Just a simple question.. If we don't have a replacement for brady and we're sitting there with no Qb. Do we address it by moving up? Or sit back and continue with BPA?
My take is we would pull a Shanny and move up and ge a Cutler.. Or follow Tanny and get a Sanchez. While Sanchez isn't great, He's definitely stabalized the QB position for the Jets.

My thought process follows the same line of thought. How this team is constituted and using 5 picks to resolve the lack of talent issue at RDE and OLB should pay off in the short term and long term.

Obviously, I have a very difficult time imagining BB allowing such a restrictive situation to befall his team. However, should it happen, his strategy would have to depend on the QB class that year. If it's a class that features a Bradford or Ryan and a close runner-up, by all means, trade up. If it's a class like this year's in which there might not be a prospect who could carry Ryan's jokckstrap, trading up wouldn't make any difference.

However, basically you're argument constitutes entrapment. You're setting up an extreme "gun to your mother's head" situation and taking that forced response to justify applying the same strategy to a situation in which there are actually many, many more options.

 

[mcsully]

Obviously, I have a very difficult time imagining BB allowing such a restrictive situation to befall his team. However, should it happen, his strategy would have to depend on the QB class that year. If it's a class that features a Bradford or Ryan and a close runner-up, by all means, trade up. If it's a class like this year's in which there might not be a prospect who could carry Ryan's jokckstrap, trading up wouldn't make any difference.

However, basically you're argument constitutes entrapment. You're setting up an extreme "gun to your mother's head" situation and taking that forced response to justify applying the same strategy to a situation in which there are actually many, many more options.

I don't want to drag the conversation in another direction but I just wanted to make sure its a possibility in your eyes trading up sometimes is needed (which I think this case warrants)..

Listen, Bottom line, I think you and I agree on what we need.. We just have different feelings on how this should be addressed.. We're not that far off and I appreciate the positive feedback and time you've given..

 

[sg14]

3 DL, interesting,,

But am on board with multiple DL to be picked, because the stars are aligning;
BB likes to have a strong DL
There is a need on the DL
THis draft is supposedly strong in that area (or so I have read that)

If we can re-generate the DL play of earlier days via the use of multiple players we are back in the SB.

Not an entirely unreasonable reaction to Wilkerson's background or Gabriel's assessment. In this case I've had the benefit of watching the kid play, my lying eyes have a more positive outlook. I also have a higher opinion of mid-major conferences like the MAC in terms of player quality and experience ... it's not the SEC or Big-10, but they deliver good kids every year if you shop carefully.

There's one 'surefire' 3-4 DL in this class, Marcel Dareus, after him there are a lot of players with unrealized potential, some have shown signs of reaching for that potential, others not so much ... which makes your preference to draft two kids on the DL very reasonable and part of my own thinking. Personally, when I start trying to mock this class out, I find myself wanting to draft at least three DL. Wilkerson or Watt early, Jenkins or Paea, or maybe Ellis on day two (if Ellis' off-field issues are resolved), and someone like Neild or Ian Williams or Brandon Bair on day three. I want a battle royal for the seven D-line slots normally kept by NE, and the one or two PSquad slots. Let competition rule the Line!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

3 DL, interesting,,

But am on board with multiple DL to be picked, because the stars are aligning;
BB likes to have a strong DL
There is a need on the DL
THis draft is supposedly strong in that area (or so I have read that)

If we can re-generate the DL play of earlier days via the use of multiple players we are back in the SB.

Yup, no ****yfooting around, this D-line has a lot of untapped potential and it needs competition to bring it out. I'm also not buying into the no room at the inn argument for the roster, NE has the ammo to draft another 10-12 players in this draft to improve competition in a number of areas:
-- D-line
-- O-line
-- OLB
-- RB
-- CB
-- ILB/Special Teams coverage
-- QB
-- S & TE are pretty thin in this class, but if the cards fall right ...

Punter, Place Kicker, and Long Snapper are the only positions which don't speak to the draft, but camp bodies should be considered.

I won't be surprised if NE uses three second round picks with ammo for two picks each in the next four rounds. I don't see a trade ahead unless Judge Nelson makes a major breakthrough with the courtroom shenanigans before the draft to clarify the future a bit more, may as well stock up because 2012 is looking lean.

 

[woolster22]

Anyone watch stanford play at all this year? They were constantly rotating the dl guys in bunches. While they didn't have that ine stand out guy to throw a wrench in the o, they had a bunch of ok guys giving 200% every play. Look at the roster drafted list, the dline is largely first and second round talent, with the oline getting filled in later. I expect a couple front seven picks in the first for picks plus a bpa rb/wr with some moving around maybe netting us a og/ot to guard prospect. I would be ecstatic with this. Protect Tommy Franchise, get the defensive front in order and pick up a toy for #12 to have fun with. then later in the draft bb can take his favorites for dante's graduate program.

 

[mcsully]

Yup, no ****yfooting around, this D-line has a lot of untapped potential and it needs competition to bring it out. I'm also not buying into the no room at the inn argument for the roster, NE has the ammo to draft another 10-12 players in this draft to improve competition in a number of areas:
-- D-line
-- O-line
-- OLB
-- RB
-- CB
-- ILB/Special Teams coverage
-- QB
-- S & TE are pretty thin in this class, but if the cards fall right ...

Punter, Place Kicker, and Long Snapper are the only positions which don't speak to the draft, but camp bodies should be considered.

I won't be surprised if NE uses three second round picks with ammo for two picks each in the next four rounds. I don't see a trade ahead unless Judge Nelson makes a major breakthrough with the courtroom shenanigans before the draft to clarify the future a bit more, may as well stock up because 2012 is looking lean.

hmm..


Competition is definitely a good thing.. but adding another 6-8 players to this team isn't going to help them get over the hump (esp at TE.. if I read your post right). Their needs are few,RDE, OLB and OT..

Time to target some players and trust our scouting department to make the right decision.. The arguement of moving up doesn't pay off is moot..Already read some articles in this thread showing moving up is statisically the same. Plus you get a player who has a bigger impact at a premiere position

Even if the CBA gets done and we follow last years rules, we can still move up to a top 8 pick and not fork over big bucks..

If you are worried about getting picks for next year, we can definitely move our 3rd and 4th roundes for 2nd and 3rd rounders next year..

Lets get our cake and eat it to!

I'm in the corner with the majority of people.. We need quality, not quantity on this team.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'm in the corner with the majority of people.. We need quality, not quantity on this team.

Which comes right back to the ultimate question - where is the quality in this draft outside the top 10 and DL?

If it's not there, diversify and see who takes off.