Downside to franchising Cassel?

[BradyManny]

QUESTION
A) If we franchise Cassel and he signs the tender, what happens if we cut him at various times (before the draft, before the season and during the season). If the team isn't obligated for the season, perhaps $875K per game isn't so bad, except that the incentive would be to bring Brady back too early.

SOME THOUGHTS ON FRANCHISING MATT CASSEL

1) We would not have $14M available as others competed for free agents.

2) If Cassel signs the tender for $14M for one year, would the team owe him anything if they were unable to make a trade? Note that Cassel doesn't need to cooperate with a trade. He can just sit tight knowing that he will make $14M or be cut and then negotiate with a team that will not need to give up a draft pick.

3) Unfortunately, the patriots may need to work directly with Cassel to secure his service for the patriots. Brady is by no means a guarantee to be near 100% to start the season. And playing next year with O'Connell as the #2 may not be the best approach. As several have indicated, perhaps the best approach is a 2 year extension at $6M or so per year (or the 3 years, with theird being a fake year). This would be able to be fit it to the patriots cap structure, as is more reasonable, than one year at $14M.

I doubt Cassel would go for that, though. He has to know that the instant Brady is healthy enough to play, Cassel is back to being 2nd string. Cassel is working towards establishing himself as a solid starter, which means he could get paid decently.

To me, a few draft picks would be worth going with O'Connel for the first few games of the year - if it even came to that. Again, Brady missing pre-season and the first few weeks is still a worst case scenario that probably won't happen.

I wish I knew the answer to your question regarding the franchise tag and cutting someone - hopefully someone w more knowledge than me chimes in, b/c thats certainly a factor.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It's too early to think about this because Cassel has nothing to fall back on beyond what he does this year. If we were talking about a multi-year starter who slumped a bit at the end of a season, it's not as big of a deal. But Cassel has only what he does on the field this year and of course people are going to be very skeptical.

And what glowing resume of NFL work did Matt Schaub have before the Texans shelled out two second-rounders for him? Before that trade, Schaub started exactly two games--and lost both of them.

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

I can see the pats making an attempt at extending him possibly, but franchising him is too expensive. Being 10M under the cap, and having to sign your rookies (~5M?), leaves you 5M under the cap with about 45 players signed. That doesn't leave alot for the last 8 players, PS, and an injury reserve which has usually been around 5M itself from year to year.

What if you franchise him, and no one trades? His salary is guaranteed.

The risk/reward is just not there for that.

 

[NEPatriot]

franchising Cassel? you can't be serious. We need to take our time to carefully evaluate him before going crazy.

 

[maryjane]

We don't want to get stuck paying this dog, er top caliber player, top dollar. I just don't think we can afford it.

I think he's progressing well though. I said earlier that he'd be pro bowl caliber by the end of the year. I was NEARLY BANNED FOR IT. Yes, that's how paranoid people are around here! Sheesh!

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

And what glowing resume of NFL work did Matt Schaub have before the Texans shelled out two second-rounders for him? Before that trade, Schaub started exactly two games--and lost both of them.

Schaub also had an impressive college resume @ Virginia. He also stepped into those games an performed like he belonged on the field. Cassel's resume, whether we like it or not, is very thin.

He may be a good QB, he may be a very good QB. He may also be a product of the talent around him, and is being made to look serviceable by great coaching and a very talented team.

Hard questions to answer when there is so little playing time to base it on.

 

[condon84]

Isn't it too early thinking about things like this? Man, I hope he becomes good enough to warrant a "frachise" tag, but right now, let's just focus on what this team needs to do against the Colts. BTW, I think Cassel is improving nicely. If his progression continues, I like our chances in the stretch run.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I forgot about that. Good suggestion.

Wrong. Transition tag is next to useless. All it does is give a team to right to match any offer the player ACCEPTS from anoter team. If they don't they get nada. And it's pretty easy to craft an offer that would be even less palatable - not to mention with the addition of a poison pill that makes it worse for us than them - than the franchise tag...

Tag and trade doesn't guarantee us any compensation unless a team signs him without even discussing trade. Few tagged players net the so called tagged compensation, but they do net something. We tagged Tebucky Jones back in the day and flipped him to New Orleans who thought he was a big deal safety...for a package of picks.

Again, we won't tag him unless he's got quite the buzz and market next February. And if those circumstances exist he would never sign that tag (to burn us, because he owes us) because he'll be in line to get MORE than $14M guaranteed in a long term deal from the team to whom he is traded...not to mention his OWN team going forward.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I can see the pats making an attempt at extending him possibly, but franchising him is too expensive. Being 10M under the cap, and having to sign your rookies (~5M?), leaves you 5M under the cap with about 45 players signed. That doesn't leave alot for the last 8 players, PS, and an injury reserve which has usually been around 5M itself from year to year.

What if you franchise him, and no one trades? His salary is guaranteed.

The risk/reward is just not there for that.

If they tag him to trade him it will be over before the draft. If there is not sufficient interest they rescind the tag and he's a FA. What you folks are failing to grasp is this FO if savvy enough to read the tea leaves and they will not franchise him UNLESS they know there is a market. And he wouldn't sign that tag unless he and his agent do not believe there is a market.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

We don't want to get stuck paying this dog, er top caliber player, top dollar. I just don't think we can afford it.

I think he's progressing well though. I said earlier that he'd be pro bowl caliber by the end of the year. I was NEARLY BANNED FOR IT. Yes, that's how paranoid people are around here! Sheesh!

Don't flatter yourself. People who don't like you are basing that assessment on the relative quality and caliber of your largely over the top posts which have been all over the place as is often the case with stealth trolls.

Bill is fond of saying we can afford to do anything we want to do.

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

And he wouldn't sign that tag unless he and his agent do not believe there is a market.

There is the fly in your soup. How do you know he won't sign the franchise tag? Someone waves 14 million in his face, and he's going to sign. Cassel has to look out for Cassel. He would be an idiot not to. Why would he give up 14 million for 1 year for the potential of 3 mil a year over 4 or 5 years (his probable true worth) and risk getting cut.

Good try, just bad logic.

 

[Clonamery]

I believe that once he signs it, it's guaranteed, so that even if he's cut, he gets paid.....

Or I may be wrong, but I dno't think so.

So it's a huge risk to 'tag' him, in the hopes of trading him, b/c if you can't, you're stuck with a huge salary to him.

Best case figure out what he'd get in a 2 year deal and pay him that. I figure maybe 2M per year.

Neat, sweet.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

There is the fly in your soup. How do you know he won't sign the franchise tag? Someone waves 14 million in his face, and he's going to sign. Cassel has to look out for Cassel. He would be an idiot not to. Why would he give up 14 million for 1 year for the potential of 3 mil a year over 4 or 5 years (his probable true worth) and risk getting cut.

Good try, just bad logic.

You must be chilling under a rock... They WILL NOT TAG HIM UNLESS they know (and they are smart enought to) there is a market. That market will guarantee him MORE THAN $14M because that is what DEREK ANDERSON got on a 3 year deal with Cleveland. Deion got way more from Seattle than he would have cost us had he been in a tag situation...Asante got 3 times more from Philly then if we re-tagged him (albeit absent a trade price but that's the cost of doing business...). Teams facing giving a QB from a poorly projecting draft class $20M+ guaranteed - or risking their season on yet another failed vet jag - will be only too eager to trade that pick or a couple of others to sign Cassel to a 5 year deal with that or less guaranteed...

BTW the going price for pretty good starting young QB's is around $8M per...with half or more of their deal guaranteed. The better to best get $10-13M per. The old geezers get $2-3M...

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I agree but it could create a situation similar to Welker's when the league stepped in and asked the teams to come to agreement to trade Welker and avoid the poison pill.

Welker was a Restricted Free Agent, and did not have the transitional tag. The Dolphins gave Welker a high offer, meaning that if someone else signed him to a contract, they would have to give the Dolphins a 2nd round pick, if the Dolphins decided not to match the offer.

What the Pats did, was trade a 2nd and a 7th to the Dolphins for Welker (who was still techinically a restricted free agent) and then the Pats signed Welker to a deal. The advantage here to the Pats was they did not have to give Welker a giant contract (or at least big enough that the Dolphins could/would not match) and they did not create a Seahawks/Vikings situation by having to insert a "poison pill" clause. basically the Pats avoided a bigger contract, and bad blood with the Phins, by simpley adding a 7th round pick to the deal.

HOWEVER: if you do not match the offer for your transitional tag player, the losing team GETS NOTHING!!!

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

You must be chilling under a rock... They WILL NOT TAG HIM UNLESS they know (and they are smart enought to) there is a market. That market will guarantee him MORE THAN $14M because that is what DEREK ANDERSON got on a 3 year deal with Cleveland. Deion got way more from Seattle than he would have cost us had he been in a tag situation...Asante got 3 times more from Philly then if we re-tagged him (albeit absent a trade price but that's the cost of doing business...). Teams facing giving a QB from a poorly projecting draft class $20M+ guaranteed - or risking their season on yet another failed vet jag - will be only too eager to trade that pick or a couple of others to sign Cassel to a 5 year deal with that or less guaranteed...

BTW the going price for pretty good starting young QB's is around $8M per...with half or more of their deal guaranteed. The better to best get $10-13M per. The old geezers get $2-3M...

Staying with the Pats for $14 could hurt his future value as well as being less guaranteed money. Were he to get injured during a one year franchise deal, he'd potentially lose lots of future millions.

My question is...why would Cassel sign the Pats franchise offer, say in Feb 2009? Pats would only offer it if there's a known market, so Cassel's agent knows this too. All he has to do as a UFA is sit tight, not go skiing or scuba diving and sign a big new guaranteed contract.

 

[BradyManny]

Staying with the Pats for $14 could hurt his future value as well as being less guaranteed money. Were he to get injured during a one year franchise deal, he'd potentially lose lots of future millions.

My question is...why would Cassel sign the Pats franchise offer, say in Feb 2009? Pats would only offer it if there's a known market, so Cassel's agent knows this too. All he has to do as a UFA is sit tight, not go skiing or scuba diving and sign a big new guaranteed contract.

I'm getting a little confused on the tag and the different scenarios that can occur. Once we tag Cassel, we're free to trade him, right? Regardless of whether he has signed to the franchise offer?

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

You must be chilling under a rock... They WILL NOT TAG HIM UNLESS they know (and they are smart enought to) there is a market. That market will guarantee him MORE THAN $14M because that is what DEREK ANDERSON got on a 3 year deal with Cleveland. Deion got way more from Seattle than he would have cost us had he been in a tag situation...Asante got 3 times more from Philly then if we re-tagged him (albeit absent a trade price but that's the cost of doing business...). Teams facing giving a QB from a poorly projecting draft class $20M+ guaranteed - or risking their season on yet another failed vet jag - will be only too eager to trade that pick or a couple of others to sign Cassel to a 5 year deal with that or less guaranteed...

BTW the going price for pretty good starting young QB's is around $8M per...with half or more of their deal guaranteed. The better to best get $10-13M per. The old geezers get $2-3M...

I think eating up 60% of your available "free" cap space on a player there may be a market for is risky business.

But lets look @ your logic again. Assuming there is a market ("and they are smart enought to"), what incentive is there for Cassel to allow the pats to dictate his future? The Pats cannot go into the season with him franchised. Too much cap load at the QB position. This is something that Cassel and his agent are also "smart enough to know". So if they get tagged, they could just not sign, and wait the Pats out. If the Pats can't get him to sign by the draft...his value sinks way down in the trade market. So it becomes a game of who blinks first...if Cassel signs before the Pats can withdraw the offer...we are stuck with a QB that is making more them Tom, and probably riding the bench.


Respect your opinion, just disagree. I don't think risking tagging him is worth the upside.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think eating up 60% of your available "free" cap space on a player there may be a market for is risky business.

But lets look @ your logic again. Assuming there is a market ("and they are smart enought to"), what incentive is there for Cassel to allow the pats to dictate his future? The Pats cannot go into the season with him franchised. Too much cap load at the QB position. This is something that Cassel and his agent are also "smart enough to know". So if they get tagged, they could just not sign, and wait the Pats out. If the Pats can't get him to sign by the draft...his value sinks way down in the trade market. So it becomes a game of who blinks first...if Cassel signs before the Pats can withdraw the offer...we are stuck with a QB that is making more them Tom, and probably riding the bench.


Respect your opinion, just disagree. I don't think risking tagging him is worth the upside.

The incentive is being tagged, contrary to what Asante claimed, is an honor (as Kraft terms it) because it underscores if not establishes your market value... He would be the talk of the early off season, some teams fans and ownerships would be pushing for his signing, mediots would be falling over each other as to which team he might help make a contender... Just like with Asante...tagging equals bigger and more consistent buzz.

And remember tagged (and we're not talking exclusive) players and their agents are free to talk to any team about their interest and potential terms. There are no draft consequences unless you sign. So interest established leads to trade talks. Those will always be based on willingness to do both ends of the deal. While that might limit Cassel's options, it will land him more money in the long run because if we don't tag him teams will wonder what we were afraid of...

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

The incentive is being tagged, contrary to what Asante claimed, is an honor (as Kraft terms it) because it underscores if not establishes your market value... He would be the talk of the early off season, some teams fans and ownerships would be pushing for his signing, mediots would be falling over each other as to which team he might help make a contender... Just like with Asante...tagging equals bigger and more consistent buzz.

And remember tagged (and we're not talking exclusive) players and their agents are free to talk to any team about their interest and potential terms. There are no draft consequences unless you sign. So interest established leads to trade talks. Those will always be based on willingness to do both ends of the deal. While that might limit Cassel's options, it will land him more money in the long run because if we don't tag him teams will wonder what we were afraid of...

I hadn't thought of that. Interesting.

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

The incentive is being tagged, contrary to what Asante claimed, is an honor (as Kraft terms it) because it underscores if not establishes your market value... He would be the talk of the early off season, some teams fans and ownerships would be pushing for his signing, mediots would be falling over each other as to which team he might help make a contender... Just like with Asante...tagging equals bigger and more consistent buzz.

And remember tagged (and we're not talking exclusive) players and their agents are free to talk to any team about their interest and potential terms. There are no draft consequences unless you sign. So interest established leads to trade talks. Those will always be based on willingness to do both ends of the deal. While that might limit Cassel's options, it will land him more money in the long run because if we don't tag him teams will wonder what we were afraid of...

Afraid of having about 28M of the cap space sitting in 1 position? Unless Tom has a major setback, its a huge risk...

Tell me, what made us talk more, us tagging Asante, or not tagging Randy?

Its not that I don't see what point you are making. Its that I disagree with the risk that action entails.