Downside to franchising Cassel?

[TruthSeeker]

This whole discussion is useless. If Cassel is good enough, he'll get a good contract offer from some other team next year (assuming he doesn't resign with the Patriots) and the Patriots will get a corresponding compensation draft pick. That's it; end of discussion.

It's stupid to even consider placing either the franchise or transition tag on Cassel at this point because he is not worth anything like that. If you franchise tag Cassel, he doesn't have to wait around looking to get an offer from another team; he (immediately if not more quickly) signs on the dotted line (while muttering under his breath, "there's a sucker born every minute).

Now, if you transition tag Cassel, he (immediately if not more quickly) signs on the dotted line (while muttering under his breath, "there's a sucker born every minute). Either way, the Patriots get to (over)pay many guaranteed millions for a backup QB.

 

[Urgent]

Downside to franchising:
Cassel gets $14mm to be a back-up. Pats hit with $29mm for QB's.

Downside to 'sign and trade.'
A draft pick has value. A drafted player (other than the top five, perhaps) offers expected performance above the free agent cost of similar expected performance. The general value of a mid-first through third round pick is $500K to $1mm.
Thus, a team trading for a player like Cassel looks at the expected performance and the total compensation, and the compensation is A (value of trade pick) plus B (salary cap cost).
Thus, from the player's point of view, why not take all the compensation for himself/herself, as opposed to splitting it with the team? If the player is a free agent, agreeing to sign with the existing team essentially guarantees a lower level of compensation.

Why does sign and trade work in basketball? Because players can sign for a higher amount with the incumbent team, as I understand it. That's unique to the NBA CBA. In the NBA, a player can actually get a higher salary by signing with the existing team just prior to a trade.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think it's a pipe dream the Pats franchise Cassel, mostly for the reason mgteich points out - no one will pay Cassel $14m for one year and give draft picks to do so.

The only hope is the Pats find someone willing to try a sign and trade deal before the franchise/FA deadline comes. This could happen if Cassel plays really well and the Pats find a team that Cassel is willing to play for and that team ponies up some decent cash so Cassel will agree to the trade in exchange for a new contract and a chance to start.

Failing a sign and trade deal, I suppose, with all the subpar QB play out there, that some team might give us a 5th just for the rights to Cassel with no guarantee and take their best shot at signing Cassel before FA starts.


If the Pats try to flat out franchise Cassel, I'd be very surprised if he didn't tell the Pats he would sign the offer immediately as mgteich suggests. This threat will force the Pats' hand since they can't carry that much dough for a backup and, as mentioned before, no one will pay $14m for Cassel for one year and no rights to the future.

Despite all this blathering: most likely Cassel just walks.

This isn't nuclear physics here so I don't know what part of this you people don't understand. The team he's traded to would not be paying him $14M to play for one year. They would be giving us draft picks for the exclusive right to sign him to a long term contract that would likely cost them less than half that against their cap. And they would believe they had signed a bonefide starting QB for the forseeable future...for no more and probably less in draft picks then it would cost them to secure one in the draft - if there even is a projected starting QB in the 2009 draft.


Bill has had a long term goal/desire to develop QB's who could then be flipped for VALUE in draft picks. All I can assume is some of you are incapable of conceiving any circumstance under which Cassel sucks could end up being that guy...

 

[spacecrime]

A draft pick has value. A drafted player (other than the top five, perhaps) offers expected performance above the free agent cost of similar expected performance.

A drafted player has "expected" value or potential. A free agent has a proven track record. With the occasional exception of a player who is past his prime, you generally know what you are getting, as opposed to a draft pick, where you hope you are getting what you think.

The general value of a mid-first through third round pick is $500K to $1mm.

This makes absolutely no sense to me. To try to put the same value of a mid-first round pick and a third round pick is ridiculous. They are light years apart. And what does it mean that a pick is worth $500K to $1M?

Is this what a team should pay another team for the pick? Or what a team would pay the player? Both are off the wall.

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[spacecrime]

This whole discussion is useless.

This is probably the best observation in the whole thread.

 

[VJCPatriot]

He would be franchised only to be traded. I don't think the Pats will be paying the salary of 2 starting QBs just to keep an insurance policy.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Unless Brady has a potential career ending complication, I really have a tough time imagining them giving Cassel $10 million.

Sure they can tag him and try to trade him - but that's taking the risk of tying up $25 million in QBs. With enough time to plan they can school O'Connell and or bring in a veteran backup as plan B should Brady not be ready to start the season - much cheaper than $10 million.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

franchise talk?

ha ha....

anyways if Matty dosen't start sliding on some of those runs then he dosen't have to worry about being franchised next year....get the frig down at the end of your run dude, run for the first down when you have like two free yards for the first and get the ball out QUICKER!

i said my peace....

 

[JAYHAWKS34]

This whole discussion is useless. If Cassel is good enough, he'll get a good contract offer from some other team next year (assuming he doesn't resign with the Patriots) and the Patriots will get a corresponding compensation draft pick. That's it; end of discussion.

It's stupid to even consider placing either the franchise or transition tag on Cassel at this point because he is not worth anything like that. If you franchise tag Cassel, he doesn't have to wait around looking to get an offer from another team; he (immediately if not more quickly) signs on the dotted line (while muttering under his breath, "there's a sucker born every minute).

Now, if you transition tag Cassel, he (immediately if not more quickly) signs on the dotted line (while muttering under his breath, "there's a sucker born every minute). Either way, the Patriots get to (over)pay many guaranteed millions for a backup QB.

This is probably the best observation in the whole thread.

:ditto: Indeed

 

[BradyManny]

This whole discussion is useless. If Cassel is good enough, he'll get a good contract offer from some other team next year (assuming he doesn't resign with the Patriots) and the Patriots will get a corresponding compensation draft pick. That's it; end of discussion.

It's stupid to even consider placing either the franchise or transition tag on Cassel at this point because he is not worth anything like that.

Tebucky wasn't worth it and they franchised him.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

This isn't nuclear physics here so I don't know what part of this you people don't understand. The team he's traded to would not be paying him $14M to play for one year. They would be giving us draft picks for the exclusive right to sign him to a long term contract that would likely cost them less than half that against their cap. And they would believe they had signed a bonefide starting QB for the forseeable future...for no more and probably less in draft picks then it would cost them to secure one in the draft - if there even is a projected starting QB in the 2009 draft.


Bill has had a long term goal/desire to develop QB's who could then be flipped for VALUE in draft picks. All I can assume is some of you are incapable of conceiving any circumstance under which Cassel sucks could end up being that guy...

Why do you need to get nasty, dude?

It may not be rocket science but evidently you're struggling to understand. If franchised, Cassel could sign the franchise amount contract and play for one year under it whether he's traded or not. Of course, no team in their right mind would cough up two number 1's w/o getting a deal signed before hand - this is apparently what orbit you and your rocket were aiming for.

Man, I feel like Robert Goddard! BTW, since he was born In Worcester, I bet he would have been a Pats fan if he had lived longer. That's good enough for me - Robert Goddard, Honorary Rocket Scientist of Patsfans.com! :idea2:

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Why do you need to get nasty, dude?

It may not be rocket science but evidently you're struggling to understand. If franchised, Cassel could sign the franchise amount contract and play for one year under it whether he's traded or not. Of course, no team in their right mind would cough up two number 1's w/o getting a deal signed before hand - this is apparently what orbit you and your rocket were aiming for.

Man, I feel like Robert Goddard! BTW, since he was born In Worcester, I bet he would have been a Pats fan if he had lived longer. That's good enough for me - Robert Goddard, Honorary Rocket Scientist of Patsfans.com! :idea2:

I suppose he could if he was a moron since if traded as a tagged player he'd be in line for upwards of $20-25M in guaranteed money on a long term starting QB's deal from his new employer...and if not traded he'd sit on the pine labled as a malcontent who screwed his own improbable career up after BB handed it to him...:ugh:

 

[TruthSeeker]

If Cassel is tagged, he will sign and go on vacation. The patriots can then talk trade with whoever wants to send a draft choice to the patriots and pay Cassel $14M for playing in 2009. The number of teams who will do that is likely to be exactly zero.

Exactly. I think people here are a little confused about the rules. If the Patriots franchise or transition tag Cassel and Cassel signs the offer sheet, then Cassel is guaranteed a 1 year deal at a very large amount of money. I'm not convinced that there is any team that wants to trade for Cassel for a 1 year deal at 10-14 million dollars (those are the numbers I've been reading; I haven't checked them out myself to see what the average of the top 5 or top 10 QBs in the NFL is). Even if Cassel outperforms our expectations for the rest of the year, who would be willing to do this? Anyone?

That's why I said earlier that this entire thread is a fantasy. There simply is no significant advantage to franchising Cassel except to Cassel who will make a ton of money on a 1 year deal. Yes, a team would then have the right to renegotiate a contract with Cassel which would then give him *a lot* more guaranteed money. I'll agree that the probability of this is above 0%; it's just that it is so slightly above 0% that it's not really worthy of a thread at this point. Perhaps in December if Cassel is the reason we're winning a few games.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Exactly. I think people here are a little confused about the rules. If the Patriots franchise or transition tag Cassel and Cassel signs the offer sheet, then Cassel is guaranteed a 1 year deal at a very large amount of money. I'm not convinced that there is any team that wants to trade for Cassel for a 1 year deal at 10-14 million dollars (those are the numbers I've been reading;.

One more time, people.

The team trading for Cassel does NOT pay him $14M for one year. They will give him a multi-year contract worth more than $14M guaranteed. That and the chance to start and have a LONG lucrative $ career is why Cassel & his agent will take the trade.

They will also not give 2 1st round picks for him; that's just the nominal assigned draft pick cost. See the Tebuckey Jones example.

EDIT: OF COURSE this tread is pure fantasy...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Exactly. I think people here are a little confused about the rules. If the Patriots franchise or transition tag Cassel and Cassel signs the offer sheet, then Cassel is guaranteed a 1 year deal at a very large amount of money. I'm not convinced that there is any team that wants to trade for Cassel for a 1 year deal at 10-14 million dollars (those are the numbers I've been reading; I haven't checked them out myself to see what the average of the top 5 or top 10 QBs in the NFL is). Even if Cassel outperforms our expectations for the rest of the year, who would be willing to do this? Anyone?

That's why I said earlier that this entire thread is a fantasy. There simply is no significant advantage to franchising Cassel except to Cassel who will make a ton of money on a 1 year deal.

Some people here are very confused about the rules. Nobody is going to trade for a player for a one year deal at the franchise price...A franchise tagged player who is traded signs a long term deal with his new team in conjunction with the trade or he isn't traded... Ergo, if a franchise tagged player signs his tag to preclude a trade knowing he was tagged to be traded he is shooting himself in the foot financially and career wise...

In this case if he were transition tagged, which he would not be since it makes no sense, it would be foolish to sign that tender binding himself to a team with a HOF starter and precluding any other team from approaching him and making him a long term offer to be their starter...

It has been years since a team was foolish enough to even trade the prescribed tag draft pick price for a tagged player. What they do is talk to the player (as is his right unless he is exclusively tagged which teams only do with a player they fear losing to teams who might actually pay the price for like Manning in 2004 or Freeney in 2006 - Franchise players at the two most coveted positions in the league) and if they feel they can reach a contract agreement with him they approach the team to talk possible trade terms.

The transition tag is a virtual giveaway since there is no compensation if you don't match whatever offer that player elicits and it's relatively easy for the acquiring team to construct their offer in a way that the tagging team cannot match (poison pill provisions like Seattle and Minnesota used - which is why we traded for Welker rather than make his have to make his contract potentially unpalatable).

The only time a player signs his tag or tender out of the gate is if he doesn't believe he has a market. And for the last time, this team would not tag a player unless they believed he had a trade market or they intended to retain him. They will not tag Matt to keep him here for obvious reasons, only to trade him if they believe he has substantial value. And if he plays at or above the level he has the last couple of weeks for the remainder of the season, he will ABSOLUTELY have that value in a QB starved league. :violent:

 

[MoLewisrocks]

One more time, people.

The team trading for Cassel does NOT pay him $14M for one year. They will give him a multi-year contract worth more than $14M guaranteed. That and the chance to start and have a LONG lucrative $ career is why Cassel & his agent will take the trade.

They will also not give 2 1st round picks for him; that's just the nominal assigned draft pick cost. See the Tebuckey Jones example.

EDIT: OF COURSE this tread is pure fantasy...

Actually it's not pure fantasy it's just speculation. But it is speculation that may well end up being well within the realm of reality come next February. And while it may be silly or presumptious to discuss it in depth now, what is just as silly is that people insist on writing it off as either nonsense or impossible mostly because they just don't grasp the issue. Talk of tagging Asante in October 2005 comes to mind, and it turns out we did just that 4 months later (although I still think that one should have been a tag and trade and February 2008 just reinforced that belief for me...).

 

[godef]

If he can't be traded, he might make more money than Brady. Hard to deny him a starter's job or at least give him opportunity to get it if he's making that much.

What do you think? How much is the franchise tag for QBs?

Be hard to have that much locked up in QBs, but it might be worth it :rocker::eat2:

Presuming he continues to improve, and presuming that a healthly Tom brady returns next year, I simply can't imagine Cassel still being in New England, he will want to be a starter somewhere. Ya think Steve Young would have stayed with SF behind Montana all those years if today's FA system was in affect back when?

 

[TruthSeeker]

One more time, people.

The team trading for Cassel does NOT pay him $14M for one year. They will give him a multi-year contract worth more than $14M guaranteed. That and the chance to start and have a LONG lucrative $ career is why Cassel & his agent will take the trade.

OK, one more time. I complete agree with you; no team is going to trade for Cassel to pay him $14M guaranteed for 1 year. In fact, I think everyone agrees with this. That is why we don't think it's going to happen.

As far as someone guaranteeing Cassel millions more and the Patriots taking the gigantic risk of franchising Cassel solely on the hopes that someone else wants to throw tons of money at Cassel, that's your fantasy.

I think we see eye to eye now.

 

[Truck]

Talk of tagging Asante in October 2005 comes to mind, and it turns out we did just that 4 months later (although I still think that one should have been a tag and trade and February 2008 just reinforced that belief for me...).

If I recall, Asante at that time was the second,third,fourth, or fifth best cb depending on who you talk to. I don't think Cassell will be cracking the top 10 for QBs by the end of the year.

For the cost of franchising him, he'd sign 4 years at that same price tag.

Maybe we should franchise Kevin Faulk too cause he's just as valuable, if not more, than Cassel

 

[JSn]

If I recall, Asante at that time was the second,third,fourth, or fifth best cb depending on who you talk to. I don't think Cassell will be cracking the top 10 for QBs by the end of the year.

For the cost of franchising him, he'd sign 4 years at that same price tag.

Maybe we should franchise Kevin Faulk too cause he's just as valuable, if not more, than Cassel

Cassel will probably be a top 5 AVAILABLE QB come free agency.