Downside to franchising Cassel?

[Va_Pats_Fan]

Cassel will probably be a top 5 AVAILABLE QB come free agency.

Now there's an argument to win this debate. He will probably be top 5 (and in case he's not, you've left yourself some wiggle room).

way to stand by those convictions.

 

[JSn]

Now there's an argument to win this debate. He will probably be top 5 (and in case he's not, you've left yourself some wiggle room).

way to stand by those convictions.

I didn't mean to leave wiggle room. I was just projecting his upward swing over 12 more games.

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

I didn't mean to leave wiggle room. I was just projecting his upward swing over 12 more games.

At least you're projecting an upswing

 

[MoLewisrocks]

If I recall, Asante at that time was the second,third,fourth, or fifth best cb depending on who you talk to. I don't think Cassell will be cracking the top 10 for QBs by the end of the year.

For the cost of franchising him, he'd sign 4 years at that same price tag.

Maybe we should franchise Kevin Faulk too cause he's just as valuable, if not more, than Cassel

No, actually that was before he started accumulating picks - back when he wasn't worth a bag of used balls... Asante's breakout season was 2006. He was tagged for 2007. In 2005 you couldn't give him away.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

OK, one more time. I complete agree with you; no team is going to trade for Cassel to pay him $14M guaranteed for 1 year. In fact, I think everyone agrees with this. That is why we don't think it's going to happen.

As far as someone guaranteeing Cassel millions more and the Patriots taking the gigantic risk of franchising Cassel solely on the hopes that someone else wants to throw tons of money at Cassel, that's your fantasy.

I think we see eye to eye now.

Derek Anderson got $14M guaranteed from Cleveland on just a 3 year extension after landing their starting job in week 2 of 2007 - a year he started as the 3rd QB on the staff...

Matt Schaub had never won a game when traded to Houston for a swap of firsts and 2 second round picks. They signed him to a 6 year $48M contract with $7M guaranteed, $20M in the first 3 seasons and a $10M option bonus if they trigger the last 3 years of his deal...

 

[swheeler23]

I do not think Cassel will comand alot as a free agent unless he takes the Patriots deep into the playoffs. Most teams will think Cassel wins because the great players around him.

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

Derek Anderson got $14M guaranteed from Cleveland on just a 3 year extension after landing their starting job in week 2 of 2007 - a year he started as the 3rd QB on the staff...

Matt Schaub had never won a game when traded to Houston for a swap of firsts and 2 second round picks. They signed him to a 6 year $48M contract with $7M guaranteed, $20M in the first 3 seasons and a $10M option bonus if the trigger the last 3 years of his deal...

Those were the effects of the need of the teams at the time. Like they say when you watch those commercials, past performance is no guarantee of future gains.

You cannot predict the market, yet your whole theory is predicated on one being there. What if there looks like there is one, we franchise, he signs, and the market fizzles out?

Then what?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Those were the effects of the need of the teams at the time. Like they say when you watch those commercials, past performance is no guarantee of future gains.

You cannot predict the market, yet your whole theory is predicated on one being there. What if there looks like there is one, we franchise, he signs, and the market fizzles out?

Then what?

If you cannot predict the QB market in the present day NFL you don't grasp the game.

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

If you cannot predict the QB market in the present day NFL you don't grasp the game.

Pretending you can is one of the most arrogant things I have ever heard. At least I know enough to know what I don't know. You obviously don't.

Answer my question. What happens if he's franchised, and the market collapses?

You continually avoid that scenario, cause it really throws a hole in your position.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Pretending you can is one of the most arrogant things I have ever heard. At least I know enough to know what I don't know. You obviously don't.

Answer my question. What happens if he's franchised, and the market collapses?

You continually avoid that scenario, cause it really throws a hole in your position.

Why would the market collapse...this isn't Wall Street. 32 teams need viable starters. Barely more than half presently do and several of them are journeymen retreads approaching AARP status. The 2009 draft projects as shallow at the position let alone any projected starters. Honestly, get over yourself.

I have said all along that any tag and trade would be dependent on Belioli's belief in their ability to assess the market. It's arrogant to intimate they are incapable of doing that since it's a crucial part of their jobs to have a thorough grasp of it.

 

[Urgent]

Another point to consider.

Scenario 1: Pats assign franchise tag to Cassel.
Scenario 2: They don't.

In Scenario 1, the trading teams recognize that the Pats not only have no value in retaining Cassel, they have an enormous negative value and need to trade him. If Cassel stays, the Pats have $29mm in cap tied up in QB's.
So, realistically, what will teams offer? Certainly not two Firsts. Maybe a third? Let's assume it's a third for this argument, and folks can debate it.

In Scenario 2, Cassel enters free agency and signs with another team. We recognize that as a free agent, Cassel should gain a larger salary than in a trade. In a trade, part of Scenario 1, the trading team assigns a total value to Cassel and divides that value between the salary they pay Cassel and the value of the draft pick they use to trade for him. In Scenario 2, whatever that value is, all of it goes to Cassel in free agency. Thus, in free agency, Cassel should earn more money than the limited freedom under a franchise tag trade.
So, realistically, what would Cassel earn in free agency?
Matt Schaub signed a 6 year $48mm deal two seasons ago, or $8mm a year two years ago.
Let's just assume Cassel signs a deal averaging $7mm.

Under Scenario 2, then, the Patriots would be awarded a Third round draft pick for compensation for the loss of Cassel.

This analysis, then, shows that the upside to the Pats for the risk of $14mm in a cap hit is the difference between a Third and a Fourth round draft pick.
Is the drop-off between 2009 Cassel and 2009 O'Connell worth that risk?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Another point to consider.

Scenario 1: Pats assign franchise tag to Cassel.
Scenario 2: They don't.

In Scenario 1, the trading teams recognize that the Pats not only have no value in retaining Cassel, they have an enormous negative value and need to trade him. If Cassel stays, the Pats have $29mm in cap tied up in QB's.
So, realistically, what will teams offer? Certainly not two Firsts. Maybe a third? Let's assume it's a third for this argument, and folks can debate it.

In Scenario 2, Cassel enters free agency and signs with another team. We recognize that as a free agent, Cassel should gain a larger salary than in a trade. In a trade, part of Scenario 1, the trading team assigns a total value to Cassel and divides that value between the salary they pay Cassel and the value of the draft pick they use to trade for him. In Scenario 2, whatever that value is, all of it goes to Cassel in free agency. Thus, in free agency, Cassel should earn more money than the limited freedom under a franchise tag trade.
So, realistically, what would Cassel earn in free agency?
Matt Schaub signed a 6 year $48mm deal two seasons ago, or $8mm a year two years ago.
Let's just assume Cassel signs a deal averaging $7mm.

Under Scenario 2, then, the Patriots would be awarded a Third round draft pick for compensation for the loss of Cassel.

This analysis, then, shows that the upside to the Pats for the risk of $14mm in a cap hit is the difference between a Third and a Fourth round draft pick.
Is the drop-off between 2009 Cassel and 2009 O'Connell worth that risk?

I think it's unrealistic to think if he's viable to tag he's only worth a 3rd...that's trying to frame the scenario contrary to precedent to support your underlying argument. Again, Schaub had never won a game and he netted a swap of firsts plus a 2nd in consecutive drafts. And any comp pick for Cassel comes in 2010 and ONLY if we do not sign a FA who wipes out that comp.

As for Cassel losing the difference between what that traded draft pick would have cost, being tagged under his circumstances would be tantemount to an endorsement from this FO! The team that really wants you will throw caution to the wind for fear the other guy will land you. Atlanta started out offering a second for Abraham. The JETS wanted Schaub and picks. Seattle offered a first and more money for the player. But by then Abraham decided he wanted to be in Atlanta with Vick and Co (LOL). He refused to even negotiate with Seattle. Still, Atlanta - who would not budge on Schaub that season - made the deal to secure a lower first they could trade for Abraham lest Seattle's interest and bigger contract offer start to soften his stance.

Bill is a calculated risk taker. He signed a reportedly washed up SS to a $16M deal many thought was insanity when we had pro bowler Lawyer Milloy resisting a $1M restructure back in the day when the cap was double digits and we were up against it. Bill traded a pro bowl QB to a division rival for a 1st. Bill tagged Tebucky Jones (whom the Saints cut 2 years later)...and got Corey Dillon, Dexter Reid and Tully Banta Cain for as his risk reward.

 

[Urgent]

I understand that using Abraham as an example makes some sense, because he was franchised and then traded.

However, Abraham went to several Pro Bowls (2001, 2002, 2004) before being traded.
He was a former First Round pick and elite athlete.
His stats included sacks of 10.5 (2005, before the trade), 9.5 (12 games), 6 (7 games), 10, and 13. He had several years of elite-for-his-position performance.

While Cassel plays QB, a more valuable position, another thread points out he is currently rated the fourth-best starting QB, out of four, in the AFC East -- behind Pennington, notably. We don't need to point out how many Pro Bowls Cassel has been to.

Another comparison pulled out is Bledsoe, who was traded for a first. Bledsoe was also a former Pro Bowl player (1994, 1996, 1997), led the league in passing yardage, and led his team to the Super Bowl.

While I agree that Cassel could get $5mm a year at a minimum in free agency, and possibly as much as $8mm, I disagree that he is comparable to a multiple-time Pro Bowler in trade comp.

An argument can be made that a third is too low for trade value. I disagree, but it's possible.
It's tough to argue that Cassel would command a first, like Bledsoe or Abraham. He's just not comparable in performance. Further, the dynamics weaken the Pats negotiating position, as discussed above.

 

[Disco Volante]

There's only one way to deal with this.

1) Franchise Cassel
2) Cut Brady, wait for him to be picked up by new team
3) Trade Cassel for Brady
4) ???
5) Profit

 

[PatsFanSince74]

We really can't know the answer to this question until January...maybe February.

But if you look at Miguel's data on the top five QB salaries (Peyton, $18.7; Tommy $14.6; Carson $13.9; Favre $12.0 and Eli $11.4) and a Franchise tage of $14.1, it seems to me that, if Cassel has a lights out season and gets them into the Playoffs, the Pats would have nothing to lose by offering him $10 ($4 under the tag salary) and daring him to find a team that would pay him as much as Eli Manning or Brett Favre. Of course, should the Pats end up in Tampa in February, win or lose, they'd probably have to tag him.

At some point in here, tho, we do have to start to factor into our thinking the fact that the cap might well blow up permanently in two years; in which case, the Pats will be one of the Major Market teams in a position to throw some real money around.