Blount needs to watch some old tape

[supafly]

I'd also add in Develin. The offense ran out of the I-formation 19% of run plays in 2014, and that figure is below 9% now.

But even accounting for that, I'm not really sure what the point of all this is. There's not a lot of difference in the run game from last year to this, which is a bit surprising.

Blount averaged 4.4 YPC last year, 4.2 YPC this year. 5 TDs last year, 6 TDs this year. The team averaged 3.9 YPC last year, 3.8 YPC this year.

Part of it may be the number of carries. The team is averaging 4 fewer carries per game despite leading the majority of them. Blount is less effective in the second half, but better in the first half. According to the ESPN splits (which look weird and I don't totally trust), we only run against 3-man lines this year while we ran in all sorts of scenarios last year.

But in terms of production, it's pretty similar.

Either way you look at it, our chances of repeating rise in dramatic fashion if we are able to run the ball with any success.

I realize that the team came back from THREE double digit deficits in the postseason to win last year, which all occurred by a very imbalanced pass/run ratio, but I'm very skeptical as to whether we'd be so lucky two years in a row. It's a noticeable weakness that makes the team one dimensional, and pretty much screwed should certain schemes, injuries, or poor weather conditions (mainly just wind/maybe some strong rain as we saw in the loss to Cincy) occur. Some prime examples of this would be the 2010 divisional loss to the NYJ, the 2012 AFCCG loss to the Ravens, and maybe even the 2011 SB loss, where an effective rushing attack from say, a guy like Ridley would've gone a long way in helping our cause. After all, the NYG had the ball for 40 minutes.

Do I think it's the "end all, be all" recipe for disaster? No, but we could use some balance for many different reasons, mostly because the winter months tend to call for more rushing opportunities and the physical imposing of one's will. It also lessens the risk of Brady seeing a nasty hit, which would ruin everything.

 

[glm]

I'd also add in Develin. The offense ran out of the I-formation 19% of run plays in 2014, and that figure is below 9% now.

But even accounting for that, I'm not really sure what the point of all this is. There's not a lot of difference in the run game from last year to this, which is a bit surprising.

Blount averaged 4.4 YPC last year, 4.2 YPC this year. 5 TDs last year, 6 TDs this year. The team averaged 3.9 YPC last year, 3.8 YPC this year.

Part of it may be the number of carries. The team is averaging 4 fewer carries per game despite leading the majority of them. Blount is less effective in the second half, but better in the first half. According to the ESPN splits (which look weird and I don't totally trust), we only run against 3-man lines this year while we ran in all sorts of scenarios last year.

But in terms of production, it's pretty similar.

Little tip, never use ESPN's stats. If you wanna go to the greatest football stats website ever than go here:

Pro Football Reference

And looking at Blount's splits (LeGarrette Blount 2015 Splits | Pro-Football-Reference.com) the only thing he does better in the 1st half of games is running at a higher YPC. In the second half he has more rushes, yards, and touchdowns so I'd say he plays better in the second half.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Little tip, never use ESPN's stats. If you wanna go to the greatest football stats website ever than go here:

Pro Football Reference

And looking at Blount's splits (LeGarrette Blount 2015 Splits | Pro-Football-Reference.com) the only thing he does better in the 1st half of games is running at a higher YPC. In the second half he has more rushes, yards, and touchdowns so I'd say he plays better in the second half.

I like Pro Football Reference, but ESPN has some info they don't and vice versa.

And I think my post might have been a bit unclear. I meant to say there's not much difference in Blount or the running game from last year to this year. Although oddly enough, the half splits are one of the more notable differences. Last year, he was much more effective in the second half vs. the first half. This year, it's the opposite.

I wouldn't necessarily conclude he's played better in the second half though. He's had 30 more carries in the second half than first which obviously gives him an advantage in accumulated stat areas. His TDs per carry are roughly 3.5% in the first half this year, and 4.6% in the second half. But if you take away just one TD, it's 3.4%. Small sample sizes. Last year similar splits, with a more disproportionate spike in second half TD of 6% due to only 33 carries.

Either way you look at it, our chances of repeating rise in dramatic fashion if we are able to run the ball with any success.

I realize that the team came back from THREE double digit deficits in the postseason to win last year, which all occurred by a very imbalanced pass/run ratio, but I'm very skeptical as to whether we'd be so lucky two years in a row. It's a noticeable weakness that makes the team one dimensional, and pretty much screwed should certain schemes, injuries, or poor weather conditions (mainly just wind/maybe some strong rain as we saw in the loss to Cincy) occur. Some prime examples of this would be the 2010 divisional loss to the NYJ, the 2012 AFCCG loss to the Ravens, and maybe even the 2011 SB loss, where an effective rushing attack from say, a guy like Ridley would've gone a long way in helping our cause. After all, the NYG had the ball for 40 minutes.

Do I think it's the "end all, be all" recipe for disaster? No, but we could use some balance for many different reasons, mostly because the winter months tend to call for more rushing opportunities and the physical imposing of one's will. It also lessens the risk of Brady seeing a nasty hit, which would ruin everything.

I agree, it would be better to run the ball than not. I just don't see a huge difference in the run game other than attempts are down. We average 3.8 YPC vs. 3.9 YPC last year. We had 13 rushing TDs and we're already at 11 this season.

But the attempts are down. 4 attempts per game x 11 games x 3.8 YPC would put us roughly around 18th in yards per game, which is coincidentally where we finished in rushing yards last year.

Maybe the run attempts are down because we're struggling to run the ball in all situations. But the effectiveness when we do is similar. And that edge in rushing last season led us to the #4 scoring offense and #11 yard offense. We're #2 in both this season.

We're averaging 3 more passes per game. So 3 of those 4 rushes have been replaced by Tom Brady passes. I am okay with this.

This is all a long way of saying I think Blount is getting a lot of extra crap he doesn't really deserve.

 

[glm]

I like Pro Football Reference, but ESPN has some info they don't and vice versa.

Understandable.

And I think my post might have been a bit unclear. I meant to say there's not much difference in Blount or the running game from last year to this year. Although oddly enough, the half splits are one of the more notable differences. Last year, he was much more effective in the second half vs. the first half. This year, it's the opposite.

Didn't comment on this part of your post but I agree with it, the running is more or less the same.

I wouldn't necessarily conclude he's played better in the second half though. He's had 30 more carries in the second half than first which obviously gives him an advantage in accumulated stat areas. His TDs per carry are roughly 3.5% in the first half this year, and 4.6% in the second half. But if you take away just one TD, it's 3.4%. Small sample sizes. Last year similar splits, with a more disproportionate spike in second half TD of 6% due to only 33 carries.

Pro-Football-Reference wrote a very nice article a few years ago that goes into the YPC vs. Attempts debate, here's what they had to say:

Is 270/1100 better than 330/1100? One argument that I've certainly used before is "they got the same number of yards, but the first guy's team had an extra 60 plays with which to gain more yards!" The natural response to that is "why would a coach give a RB 330 carries if he was only getting 3.6 per carry?" From there, we have a two different answers. Either: a) the RB wasn't that good but either the coach was dumb or the backups were really bad, or b) the RB was good and his YPC is misleading.

Once again, with rushing, I think median carry is a more telling number than average carry. Yards per carry is not a very good measure of central tendency. On the other hand, we can infer that if a RB is getting a high number of carries, he's doing something right. Carries themselves are highly correlated with greatness.

Terrell Davis, Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin, LaDainian Tomlinson, Eric ****erson, Clinton Portis, Eddie George, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, Emmitt Smith, Ricky Williams and Earl Campbell. Those are the RBs with over 19 carries per game for their careers. A RB that gets carry after carry is doing something right. Maybe he's consistently getting gains, maybe he's running hard despite a bad OL, or maybe he's able to kill the clock without fumbling. All of those things are good. A list of the top RBs by yards per carry? Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, Paul Lowe, Robert Smith, Joe Perry, Wendell Tyler, Greg Pruitt, James Brooks, Tiki Barber, Hugh McElhenny, O.J. Simpson, Fred Taylor and Charlie Garner all have career averages over 4.6 YPC. Ignoring the overlap, I'd prefer the first list.

Remember, teams can choose to pass instead of run. So if a RB is getting 350 carries, it can't be just because his RB teammates are bad. It's got to be because the team's QB is bad, too. And if a team's QB is bad, its other RBs are bad and one guy keeps getting carry after carry, then he's pretty valuable to his team. And if year after year he gets these carries, he's definitely doing something right. A RB with 1600 yards on 400 carries may be just as valuable or dominant as one with 1600 yards on 325 carries. After all, the obvious question for the latter RB is -- why didn't he get more carries? Perhaps the former RB was getting three and four yards on every carry, a very valuable trait.

Blount is able to have a higher YPC in the first half because the Pats use the passing game in the first half to build a lead. As a result of this Blount has less carries in the first half but takes advantage of them due to defenses keying in on the passing game. In the second half the Pats use him more to help run out the clock which means the defenses key in on him more which leads to a lower YPC.

To use a different example, in 2013 Jamaal Charles had an All Pro season where he averaged 6.02 Yards per Touch on 329 touches. As great as his season was, it wasn't better than LT's 2006 season where LT averaged 5.75 Yards per Touch on 404 touches.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Pro-Football-Reference wrote a very nice article a few years ago that goes into the YPC vs. Attempts debate, here's what they had to say:



Blount is able to have a higher YPC in the first half because the Pats use the passing game in the first half to build a lead. As a result of this Blount has less carries in the first half but takes advantage of them due to defenses keying in on the passing game. In the second half the Pats use him more to help run out the clock which means the defenses key in on him more which leads to a lower YPC.

To use a different example, in 2013 Jamaal Charles had an All Pro season where he averaged 6.02 Yards per Touch on 329 touches. As great as his season was, it wasn't better than LT's 2006 season where LT averaged 5.75 Yards per Touch on 404 touches.

I've read that before. I just don't think either measure really tells the whole story. For example, some teams have to run regardless of result to minimize their mediocre QBs. Bills/Jets fans, you know what I'm talking about...

There are some advanced run stats out there for yards before contact, yards after contact, rushes with positive yards, rushes with negative yards, et cetera. I think those help compose a more accurate picture.

The Charles/Tomlinson comparison is a bit messy because you're factoring in receptions. On runs alone, Tomlinson averaged 5.2 YPC vs. 5.0 for Charles. So he ran for more yards per carry and more yards overall because he had more attempts.

But overall, I agree with the spirit of your post.

 

[Joey007]

You mean to watch this old film..?

 

[captain stone]

This might be the most pathetic running game I have ever seen from any Pats team.

The play-calling sucks.

The blocking sucks.

The running sucks.

The Pats will break - very easily break - their team record for pass/run ratio, which is held by the 2002
team with 62/38. They're currently at 66/34, and getting worse.

What Brady has accomplished with this mis-cast of characters on the OL, at RB & at WR is nothing
whatsoever short of Miraculous.

 

[Mack Herron]

You mean to watch this old film..?

He doesn't work here anymore.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

Our O line is almost at full strength minus Nate Solder and John Hannah isn't walking through that door. We really need to be able to run the ball and so far this season we haven't been able to succeed in that area despite racking up A lot of carries. So frustrating but hopefully they'll turn it around because we need to be able to close out games in the postseason.