Kraft Needs to Back Mayo With His Wallet

[Hugepatsfan]

I think it's inaccurate to say they rarely handed out 2nd contracts during BB's tenure. In recent years - for sure but that's not a philosophy they held all across BB's tenure. Towards the end of Brady's time here they traded picks for player smore frequently and just flat out missed on a lot of picks. They haven't drafted a pro bowler/all pro in a while. They haven't really had guys worth paying FA market prices for.

The Pats definitely let a lot of guys go during BB's tenure, but they also kept a lot of them. The poor drafting of the later years has skewed the picture to where people forgot that they actually drafted very well overall during his 24 year tenure. They were drafting so many good players that they both kept a lot of them and let a lot of them walk.

 

[TommyD4207]

I think it's inaccurate to say they rarely handed out 2nd contracts during BB's tenure. In recent years - for sure but that's not a philosophy they held all across BB's tenure. Towards the end of Brady's time here they traded picks for player smore frequently and just flat out missed on a lot of picks. They haven't drafted a pro bowler/all pro in a while. They haven't really had guys worth paying FA market prices for.

The Pats definitely let a lot of guys go during BB's tenure, but they also kept a lot of them. The poor drafting of the later years has skewed the picture to where people forgot that they actually drafted very well overall during his 24 year tenure. They were drafting so many good players that they both kept a lot of them and let a lot of them walk.

The last day 1 or 2 pick that got a 2nd contract from the Patriots was Duron Harmon in 2013.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Cap keeps increasing though so you can keep borrowing more every year.

That doesn't change my basic point. The more you borrow from a future year, the less you have to spend when that year comes. This is why the Saints' cap has been a mess for years now; they're $84M over the 2024 cap and almost $40M over the 2025 cap.

 

[ahmed]

That doesn't change my basic point. The more you borrow from a future year, the less you have to spend when that year comes. This is why the Saints' cap has been a mess for years now; they're $84M over the 2024 cap and almost $40M over the 2025 cap.

They could have kept going though. They just decided to pay for it because it made sense as they did not have a QB They felt they could win with.

As I said you can do it basically forever until the NFL is no more because you can just keep borrowing from a future cap that's always growing ~10% a year (unless Covid).

Another thing is that NFL money today is worth way more than money next year in a cap that goes up 10% a year. This is because by borrowing from future years you are borrowing a larger % of cap this year from future years where that same money = a smaller % of that future cap. This different than value of money calculation due to interest rate.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

The last day 1 or 2 pick that got a 2nd contract from the Patriots was Duron Harmon in 2013.

Right, but my point is that this is more because of poor drafting than it is cheapness/reluctance to pay guys. Over the close to decade and a half before that they drafted well and consistently re-signed guy because they were good to great to even hall of fame caliber players. They re-signed guys like Richard Seymour, Matt light, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Donte Hightower. That's a long list of players to re-sign from rounds 1-2 and pretty much all of them got deals at or near the top of their positional market. That's not even to mention the day 3 guys like Tom Brady, Jarvis Green, Dan Koppen, James Sanders, Stephen Gostowski, Matthew Slater, Julian Edelman, Aaron Hernandez, Marcus Cannon that they re-signed. Sure, they let a lot of their draft picks go when they became free agents, but they also kept a ton of them. They went 20 years with loaded rosters across the board. When you're stacked at every position like we mostly were for 2 decades you're going to have to let a lot of guys go. But

Since 2014 we haven't drafted well at all in day 1/2. In 2014 Easley was a total bust and Jimmy G couldn't be kept on a 2nd deal because we still had Brady. In 2015, Malcolm Brown was a good starter but also someone it made sense to let go because his deal was up at a time we still had a loaded roster with better guys to allocate money to and Richards/Grissom were 2nd and 3rd round busts that year. In 2016 Cyrus Jones was a bust, Thuney ended up franchise tagged (which I guess is technically a 2nd deal), Brissett was traded because we had an overkill of QB depth at the time, Vince Valentine had a good rookie year then tore his ACL and didn't make the team after that. In 2017 we only had 2 picks in the top 3 rounds and took Derek Rivers (tore his acl multiple times) and Antonio Garcia (who got cancer as a rookie and couldn't regain enough weight to play OT in the NFL). In 2018 we reached for Michel to fill a need, missed on the Wynn pick and totally whiffed on Duke Dawson. In 2019 we drafted a bunch of busts besides Damián Harris who is very "meh" at a replaceable position.

Again, I don't think the lack of extensions is because of cheapness. It's because from 2014 to 2019 we drafted really, really poorly in rounds 1-3. It's that simple. We had some better success on day 3 where we've retained guys over that stretch like James White/Shaq Mason/Ted Karras/Deatrich Wise.

Now it's the 2020 class that's up for the extension decisions and there are some guys who are good players in Dugger/Uche/Jennins that might be re-signed. 2021 has Barmore. 2022 looks rough right now. 2023 is waaaaay too early but seems like Gonzalez and White will be good players IMO.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Another thing is that NFL money today is worth way more than money next year in a cap that goes up 10% a year. This is because by borrowing from future years you are borrowing a larger % of cap this year from future years where that same money = a smaller % of that future cap. This different than value of money calculation due to interest rate.

If, of course, you can get a player to sign that long-term contract. There's a reason why most players sign at most three- or four-year deals.

 

[Triumph]

BB seemingly put up with a lot of Kraft crap post Brady I see no reason that Kraft stepping in would force out BB.

If Brady stayed BB was gone.

 

[1960Pats]

The Red Sox have nesn, they finish in last place and they still make more money than 3/4 of the league. Now that’s cheap. Will never watch another Red Sox game until either Henry sells or he starts forking out again as he should.

I don't think Henry will care as long as people keep visiting that decrepit stadium.

 

[1960Pats]

If Brady stayed BB was gone.

And Bill would have had his choice of jobs if that had happened back then. Now he may end up watching the NYFL from his couch.

 

[1960Pats]

Shelton, M. Brown, Flowers at those huge dollars, and Van Noy who was cut after one year at the Dolphins? Pass, pass, pass, and pass. You are really stretching it to make a point.

Van Noy and Thuney are just a couple of ex-Pats who were in the playoffs this year and one of them will be in the SB again.

The point about not paying to keep players is worse with home grown players because a team should be able to recognize and reward players who've been right under their nose.

Also on the spending, I'm not into all of the money bs but if all teams have the same salary cap and one of them is going to the playoffs and SB consistently doesn't that team have more profits? Throw in the high ticket prices and I could see where fans might call Kraft cheap.

 

[Wozzy]

They have the 4th most cap space available entering 2024, they’ll spend some regardless. Bottom line and nobody wants to hear this, the best free agents are in many cases their own.

Hunter Henry, Mike Onwenu, Kyle Duggar, Zeke Elliott, Josh Uche, Anfrenee Jennings, Mack Wilson, Mike Gesicki, Pharaoh Brown… they should extend as many of these guys as possible and build through the draft.

 

[Wozzy]

And just as an aside, the way the Patriots spent to the cap the last two decades is a very smart way to do business. That is if you enjoy being competitive every season and don’t want to have peaks and valleys. It wasn’t that BB was cheap, it was simply a better way.

 

[upstater1]

I think it's inaccurate to say they rarely handed out 2nd contracts during BB's tenure. In recent years - for sure but that's not a philosophy they held all across BB's tenure. Towards the end of Brady's time here they traded picks for player smore frequently and just flat out missed on a lot of picks. They haven't drafted a pro bowler/all pro in a while. They haven't really had guys worth paying FA market prices for.

The Pats definitely let a lot of guys go during BB's tenure, but they also kept a lot of them. The poor drafting of the later years has skewed the picture to where people forgot that they actually drafted very well overall during his 24 year tenure. They were drafting so many good players that they both kept a lot of them and let a lot of them walk.

That stat has been floated out there without even processing the fact that for half of the 10 year period, players were still under their first contract. It's just a mindless stat.

In order to really measure it, you'd have to look at the 10 years in which players were eligible to sign second contracts, and you'd also look at the players who took huge contracts elsewhere.

If you break it down, it's 19 busts from the first 3 rounds.
13 players retained from all rounds (the core of our 3 Super Bowl champions).
16 players from all rounds who were left for decent contracts from other teams.

Basically, it means you're hitting on 3 players a year in the draft on average. 2 busts in the first 3 rounds on average. Retaining 1.3 of the players per draft past 4 or 5 years.

2009-2018:

Busts/Didn't resign significant 2nd contracts (19):

Isaiah Wynn
Sony Michel
Duke Dawson
Derek Rivers
Antonio Garcia
Cyrus Jones
Vincent Valentine
Malcolm Brown
Jordan Richards
Geneo Grissom
Dominique Easley
Aaron Dobson
Jake Bequette
Ras-I Dowling
Jermaine Cunningham
Taylor Price
Ron Brace
Brandon Tate
Tyrone McKenzie

Signed With Patriots (13):

Ja'Whaun Bentley
Deatrich Wise
Shaq Mason
James White
Duron Harmon
Donte Hightower
Nate Solder
Marcus Cannon
Devin McCourty
Rob Gronkowski
Aaron Hernandez
Sebastian Vollmer
Julian Edelman

Signed Contract Elsewhere/Traded Signed Contracts (16):

Joe Thuney
Elandon Roberts
Ted Karras
Trey Flowers
Jamie Collins
Logan Ryan
Jimmy Garoppolo
Chandler Jones
Jacoby Brissett
Tavon Wilson
Shane Vereen
Stevan Ridley
Ryan Mallet
Brandon Spikes
Patrick Chung
Darius Butler

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Also on the spending, I'm not into all of the money bs but if all teams have the same salary cap and one of them is going to the playoffs and SB consistently doesn't that team have more profits? Throw in the high ticket prices and I could see where fans might call Kraft cheap.

Not sure what this means. It appears to confuse the salary cap with profits. The salary cap is fixed and has to be spent per the union agreement with the players. The rest of the NFL franchise's expenses can be managed to increase profit. Going to the Super Bowl and ticket prices have no effect on the salary cap. Yes extra playoff games and Super Bowl wins lead to more revenue and more profit for a franchise, which is unrelated to the salary cap.

Whether FAs are ex-Patriots players or not does not effect their contract value analysis for management under the salary cap. Over paying JAGs because they played at the Patriots for 4 years is unwise management. Guys like Van Noy and M Brown have been JAGs since they left NE and were overpaid.