Alfonzo Dennard

[supafly]

Who has put Chung up on the pedestal?

The 2012 New England Patriots roster "is what it is".

The 2013 New England Patriots roster is up for debate with a slew of pending unrestricted free agents:

Woodhead
Shiancoe
Thomas
Vollmer
Branch
Welker
Edelman
Brace
Pryor
Scott
Carpenter
Koutouvides
White
Chung
Arrington
Cole

Franchise tag for Chung? You've got to be kidding?

There have been many, many media members and fans---a ton who post here that have put Chung up on a pedestal. Just a few weeks ago there was a thread stating that he'd make 8 million+ a year, with many comments suggesting the same. How many times have we seen him mentioned as a top 10-12 safety in the NFL?

Don't count out the potential of the franchise tag. It's all up to Belichick. He has a young, very fast, and very able bodied SS who is an awesome tackler up the middle. He is also very knowledgable of the schemes and assignments too, which is a huge positive when trying to assess other fits for this defense.

If Belichick wants another year to assess Chung's skillset, and to see how far along he has come or not in certain aspects, the franchise tender for safeties is extremely low in comparison to other positions.

I don't think there is a high chance of that happening, but we're only 5 games into the season. Chung could pick off 5 passes and play much better down the stretch, and many will then be hoping for the franchise tag.

To me Chung is still somewhat of an unknown, due to health and injury issues, not to mention inconsistency. While it isn't likely that Belichick would choose to use the tag on him, it's not entirely out of the question either. There are many factors that will come into play between now and then.

Good coverage safeties don't grow on trees. If Belichick didn't go out and choose to overpay for one in FA the past couple of years knowing damn well what Chung's skillset is, he may very well try to work with what he has. There's no doubt someone else will be here too via the draft or FA, but I'm not sure why you're so quick to think after 5 games that Chung is out the door yet?

Let's also remember that BB may damn well know that Chung isn't going to be a good coverage safety, yet we are still continuing to win a ton of games with him back there. 14-2 and 13-3 seasons continue to put us in position. The scheme of safety help over the top has been a popular ploy and has often resulted in a victory, despite the fact the he isn't good in coverage. It's not just about one player, it's about building the team. I will guess that there's just a good of a chance of Chung staying as leaving next year, one way or another, but I still think they come to a reasonable deal.

 

[supafly]

Starter upgrades via the 2013 NFL Draft: right offensive guard, strong safety

Connolly moves back to center and second or third round 2013 NFL draft pick starts at right offensive guard.

Chung departs via unrestricted free agency and a second or third 2013 NFL draft pick starts at strong safety.

Depth upgrades via the 2013 NFL Draft: defensive tackle, offensive tackle, defensive end (though Bill Belichick may disagree)

You are making some pretty crazy assumptions that a young, green kid who has no knowledge of the system here + no NFL experience whatsoever will instantly be able to step right in and fix some of our issues through the 2013 draft.

It's no coincidence that has not happened at many positions so far with many, many high draft choices that have been wasted; not just for our team, but for many across the NFL.

I think the success of some recent draft picks here have skewed the odds in your judgment as to the success rates of draft picks in the NFL.

Bringing in a draft pick over Patrick Chung does not even come close to equaling a higher rate of success in safety pass coverage, and could actually weaken the position in some aspects.

If it was just as simple as that, then we'd have Tavon Wilson or Nate Ebner starting in his place already. Even Meriweather was slowly blended in to his assignments during his rookie campaign, and he was a 1st rd draft pick who made the probowl in 2 of his first 3 starting years.

 

[ATippett56]

There's no doubt someone else will be here too via the draft or FA, but I'm not sure why you're so quick to think after 5 games that Chung is out the door yet?

I view the salary cap world in an extremely realistic manner.

Based on the 2012 NFL Season to date, the value of Wes Welker and Julian Edelman to the New England Patriots offense outweighs the value of Kyle Arrington and Patrick Chung to the New England Patriot defense.

Compare the New England Patriots offensive passing ranking to the New England Patriots defensive passing ranking to justify the aforementioned course of action.

 

[ATippett56]

You are making some pretty crazy assumptions that a young, green kid who has no knowledge of the system here + no NFL experience whatsoever will instantly be able to step right in and fix some of our issues through the 2013 draft.

Since 2001, how many times has the New England Patriots organization screwed up selecting an offensive lineman in the first three rounds?

 

[mgteich]

Now if you could just get Welker and Edelman to play for the same salary cap hit that Arrington and Chung would require.

I view the salary cap world in an extremely realistic manner.

Based on the 2012 NFL Season to date, the value of Wes Welker and Julian Edelman to the New England Patriots offense outweighs the value of Kyle Arrington and Patrick Chung to the New England Patriot defense.

Compare the New England Patriots offensive passing ranking to the New England Patriots defensive passing ranking to justify the aforementioned course of action.

 

[ATippett56]

Now if you could just get Welker and Edelman to play for the same salary cap hit that Arrington and Chung would require.

Another salary cap/free agency hypothetical:

If Danny Woodhead is offered "Benny" money, will the New England Patriots re-sign him?

Based upon the aforementioned hypothetical scenario, given the choice Vollmer or Woodhead?

 

[supafly]

I view the salary cap world in an extremely realistic manner.

Based on the 2012 NFL Season to date, the value of Wes Welker and Julian Edelman to the New England Patriots offense outweighs the value of Kyle Arrington and Patrick Chung to the New England Patriot defense.

Compare the New England Patriots offensive passing ranking to the New England Patriots defensive passing ranking to justify the aforementioned course of action.

I don't think there's any question as to Arrington. Some players you can see leaving from a mile away, and many of those are due to their success. That is not Chung's case, and he may be offered a very reasonable deal for young, veteran safeties of around 4 mill/per year.

Either way, I'm not sure how you'd assess that after only 5 games?

I would also assume that Edelman will be here, and I also think he's been part of the future plans for at least a yr or two, but that's another assumption that won't be likely determined until after the season is over. If he ends up sucking at his WR position assignments, that could change lots of things.

There are just too many variables to be looking so far ahead, but that's just my opinion.

We've already locked up the 2 young TE's, and made a lot of youth movement moves at certain positions for the future. There aren't many holes on this team, and the ones that are will be addressed via FA and the draft, just the same as always. The biggest question in the offseason will be what to do with Welker.

Again, we seem to have a different opinion on the matter, but I feel the only player that we can safely assume is gone right now is #24 Arrington; but that is more due to the fact that someone will surely overpay for a CB who led the league in INT's. We've all known that Arrington would be gone this coming year now for awhile.

Everyone else is still only several games into the 2012 season. The offseason will be the time to make those judgments, although I can respect the fact that you're looking ahead.

 

[supafly]

Another salary cap/free agency hypothetical:

If Danny Woodhead is offered "Benny" money, will the New England Patriots re-sign him?

Based upon the aforementioned hypothetical scenario, given the choice Vollmer or Woodhead?

I don't think the comparison is valid at all.

BJGE was known as a very reliable team player, who never once fumbled in his NFL career. He also had a 1,000 yard season under his belt, which raises his value.

Danny Woodhead is nothing more than a little scat back, who offers potential on 3rd down draws. He has many flaws such as pass protection, and he has much more value here than anywhere else.

I am sure the obvious choice would be Vollmer over Woodhead, but I think those 2 players are night/day different on many levels; Production and salary being the first 2 that come to mind.

 

[Avenger]

Woodhead wont get Benny money, Benny had a 1000 yard season not too long ago and was a starter, Woodhead is a 3rd down back. Edelman wouldn't require a large contract either

 

[ATippett56]

That is not Chung's case, and he may be offered a very reasonable deal for young, veteran safeties of around 4 mill/per year.

Quite frankly, I don't see any difference in Chung's performance in 2012, if not worse, to Milloy's performance in 2002.

 

[supafly]

Since 2001, how many times has the New England Patriots organization screwed up selecting an offensive lineman in the first three rounds?

First of all, what does an offensive lineman have to do with the position of safety and Chung's future here? Choosing a draft pick at safety is a position that may/may not bring more success than the current player of Chung, but there is certainly no guarantee; not even close.

Secondly, there have been many positions of success in the draft such as offensive linemen, but many of failure such as CB, S, OLB, and WR. Safety is what we were talking about, so that's why I mentioned it. There's just a good of a chance at picking up a safety in free agency as there is the draft.

If we were talking about plugging in an OL instead of Chung at S, then I'd have never made that comment.

 

[ATippett56]

I don't think the comparison is valid at all.

BJGE was known as a very reliable team player, who never once fumbled in his NFL career. He also had a 1,000 yard season under his belt, which raises his value.

Danny Woodhead is nothing more than a little scat back, who offers potential on 3rd down draws. He has many flaws such as pass protection, and he has much more value here than anywhere else.

I am sure the obvious choice would be Vollmer over Woodhead, but I think those 2 players are night/day different on many levels; Production and salary being the first 2 that come to mind.

These are the type of unrestricted free agent decisions that the New England Patriots organization will potentially face in March 2013:

Vollmer vs Woodhead
Welker & Edelman vs Arrington & Chung

At the end of day, you just can't have it all, as was the case with Randy Moss versus A$ante $amuel in March 2008. Welcome to the salary cap world.

 

[ATippett56]

First of all, what does an offensive lineman have to do with the position of safety and Chung's future here? Choosing a draft pick at safety is a position that may/may not bring more success than the current player of Chung, but there is certainly no guarantee; not even close.

Take a good look at the New England Patriots current pass defensive rankings and then decide which starting defensive secondary players need to upgraded:

McCourty
Arrington
Chung
Gregory

 

[ATippett56]

Now if you could just get Welker and Edelman to play for the same salary cap hit that Arrington and Chung would require.

Discount double-check baby!

 

[mgteich]

I don't view the choices in the way you do. I view an entire budget and a 6-month process. For example, we do not need to choose between Vollmer and Woodhead. That being said, I would choose a healthy Vollmer is a heartbeat. We have Vereen and Demps as potential 3rd down backs. I believe the talent falloff is much less than from Vollmer to Cannon, even disregarding the issue of needing a backup at OT.

Also, I would not pay Woodhead what Green-Ellis was paid to leave. If he can get that kind of money, I wish him good luck with his new team.

Another salary cap/free agency hypothetical:

If Danny Woodhead is offered "Benny" money, will the New England Patriots re-sign him?

Based upon the aforementioned hypothetical scenario, given the choice Vollmer or Woodhead?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The 2013 New England Patriots roster is up for debate with a slew of pending unrestricted free agents:

Woodhead
Shiancoe with GRONKnandez + Fells + Ballard, I say "meh"
Thomas JAG
Vollmer
Branch At this point, how mch does he have left?
Welker
Edelman
Brace Not going to get starter money
Pryor Might get starter money based on potential, but that's about it
Scott JAG
Carpenter JAG
Koutouvides JAG
White Good on special teams, but JAG on defense
Chung
Arrington Will probably get starter money
Cole Who?

See above.

 

[ATippett56]

I don't view the choices in the way you do. I view an entire budget and a 6-month process. For example, we do not need to choose between Vollmer and Woodhead. That being said, I would choose a healthy Vollmer is a heartbeat. We have Vereen and Demps as potential 3rd down backs. I believe the talent falloff is much less than from Vollmer to Cannon, even disregarding the issue of needing a backup at OT.

Also, I would not pay Woodhead what Green-Ellis was paid to leave. If he can get that kind of money, I wish him good luck with his new team.

Do you believe BenJarvus Green-Ellis was overpaid in unrestricted free agency?

Do you believe Mark Anderson was overpaid in unrestricted free agency?

 

[supafly]

Quite frankly, I don't see any difference in Chung's performance in 2012, if not worse, to Milloy's performance in 2002.

I get what you're saying, Tip. I respect and understand it too.

My only point is that it's simply too early to properly judge Chung's 2012 current season based on 5 games.

There are many variables that can change things between now and February/March 2013 when the final decision needs to be made.

Even then, only one man knows if he likes certain things and feels that weaknesses can be improved upon, and that's Belichick. Another point is that he may decide to keep Chung one more year via franchise tag (although it isn't likely) until the "new" draft picks of Wilson, Ebner and 2013 to be determined can get a year or two under their belts first.

There is also the argument that Belichick may need or want another additional year to try and judge Chung as a whole for the future, especially if he sees him progressing in certain areas. He does bring some very good qualities into the picture, and adds youth, speed, and precise tackling abilities = a strength up the middle in the run game.

It certainly is not written in stone that Chung will be gone yet, as much as I agree with you that I would like to see an upgrade in the pass coverage. We may end up being a top 5 rush defense, and Chung may be an important part in that. That's why they play the games, because there are many more opportunities that lie ahead in this particular season.

 

[ATippett56]

Choosing a draft pick at safety is a position that may/may not bring more success than the current player of Chung, but there is certainly no guarantee; not even close.

Compare Patrick Chung's performance this season to Tavon Wilson's performance this season:

2012 New England Patriots Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Interceptions
Chung - 0
Wilson - 2

Passed Defensed
Chung - 2
Wilson - 3

Fumble Recoveries
Chung - 0
Wilson - 2

In far less snaps, rookie Tavon Wilson has outplayed Patrick Chung in the New England Patriots defensive secondary.

Let's not forget the bad angle Patrick Chung took on the Donald Jones 68 yard touchdown reception in the Buffalo Bills game. Let's not forget that Patrick Chung did not turn his head around on the touchdown pass to Scott Chandler in the Buffalo Bills game.

 

[supafly]

Compare Patrick Chung's performance this season to Tavon Wilson's performance this season:

2012 New England Patriots Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Interceptions
Chung - 0
Wilson - 2

Passed Defensed
Chung - 2
Wilson - 3

Fumble Recoveries
Chung - 0
Wilson - 2

In far less snaps, rookie Tavon Wilson has outplayed Patrick Chung in the New England Patriots defensive secondary.

Let's not forget the bad angle Patrick Chung took on the Donald Jones 68 yard touchdown reception in the Buffalo Bills game. Let's not forget that Patrick Chung did not turn his head around on the touchdown pass to Scott Chandler in the Buffalo Bills game.

I realize that Wilson has had a knack for turnovers in his rookie season here, and that is wonderful news for our future and our secondary.

That said, I still think that Wilson fills in for Gregory's role much better than he does Chung. I know that some will argue that Tavon Wilson has the potential to play BOTH safety roles, but I do not personally believe that he offers the same in run support as the typical SS; understanding that we don't differentiate roles here in N.England. I would much rather see Wilson play more of the "FS" role that Gregory tends to play, as opposed to Chung.

As I said, in Chung's only full season where he started more than 8 games, which was in 2010, he picked off 3 INT's, returned 1 for a TD, defended 9 passes total, and took part in 91 tackles solo + assisted.

Let's give him the benefit of playing the whole season first before we try and determine the kind of year he has.

He does provide one hell of a thumping run defense, ST presence, youth, potential upside, and quite a lot of speed.

Yes, he has failed at certain aspects too, that is not to be argued, but as I said--only one man's opinion matters, so we'll have to see how that shakes out. In the meantime, I personally think it's too early to judge his 2012 performance, as many things can change between now and the end of the season.

As a matter of fact, if you compare much-wanted safety Dashon Goldson's first 4 years in the NFL to that of Patrick Chung's, they basically have identical numbers, and Goldson played in many more games than Chung due to injury. It could even be argued that Chung tops Goldson in run support. Let's wait until the end of the year and then attempt to make our predictions.

Attempting to gauge the 2013 prospects and 53 man roster is better left to the off-season, where we can go back and forth during the spring and dog days of summer.


One way or another, Belichick will make sure that needs are addressed and weaknesses accounted for through the FA period and the 2013 draft. Chung may be here, he may not. In my mind it's still about 50/50, but you may feel differently.