Off The Grid
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
- Joined
- Apr 20, 2010
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I do see what you and Mayo see in him, I really do. But this last part that I bolded is the crux for me.
I've alluded to it before. Is it better to take a player who is falling for reasons other than injury or better take a prospect who appears to be on the rise? It's a philosophical approach to the draft. Taking a falling player like Hunter is certainly a way to get value. I agree with you, a perfect Justin Hunter is a top 5 guy. But if all those teams are passing on him because of his flaws, why do we think he'd be good for the Pats? The flaws will still be there. We're either putting a lot of faith in our locker room and coaching or we're putting a lot of faith in luck. On the other hand, a player on the rise is doing so because of discovered positives. Perhaps a more detailed analysis of game tape shows how good he really is, he demonstrates plus athletic prowess, a small schooler performs well when elevated to a higher level in a Bowl game. Sometimes, this can let you do (combine stars for example), but generally the player is rising for positive reasons.
It's a philosophical issue and both arguments have merits. The risky value approach of drafting a faller or taking the player who has exceeded your earlier expectations. Personally I think the latter approach is more likely to find the more productive player. For example,
I'm glad we drafted 'riser' Chandler Jones rather than 'faller' Courtney Upshaw.
Yes, but I, myself, am delighted that we drafted Cataclysmic Collapse Faller Alfonzo Dennard.
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That said, you bring unique focus to an important philosophical Point...
And my answer would be: Case By Case Basis.
Judgement.
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1 ~ Sometimes a Prospect rockets all the way from UFA to 1st Round...and is still a Bargain.
2 ~ Sometimes a Prospect plummets all the way from 1st Round to UFA...and is still OverValued.
On the other hand...
1 ~ Sometimes a Prospect is OverValued in the 1st Round ~ indeed, I wrote up Dennard, himself, as OverValued just about 1 year ago, when he was generally projected thither ~ and is a phenomenal steal in the 7th.
2 ~ And sometimes a guy gets too much air under'm, and rockets North well beyond his True Value...as for instance any number of QuarterBacks do, each and every year...and indeed this coming year could be historic in that regard.