Anyone nervous about Moss' effectiveness...

Deus Irae said:

I'm not making your point. It's not my fault that you can't can't grasp the obvious. Here, maybe this will help.....

A comparison between the 2007 Patriots and the 1998 Vikings:

Brady played one regular season game more than Cunningham, but the one game difference at QB doesn't ruin the comparison since the numbers are for the receivers:

20+ yard pass plays:

Vikings - 55, Moss had 20, Carter had 13, Reed 6

Patriots - 56, Moss had 18, Gaffney/Stallworth had 16, Welker 10

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Thanks! So obviously you're saying if Carter had been more of a credible deep threat perhaps the Vikings would have made it past the coference finals.

Indeed it looks like Moss was used even more exclusively as a deep WR that season making him even more of the sole deep target.

What this comes down to is more than a breakdown of seasonal statistics.

Defensive coordinators were not looking at Vikings 1998 statistics when they were deciding how to defend against the Patriots in deep pass situations. They simply looked on the field, saw that Moss was the one and only deep threat, and triple teamed him.

If Jackson can show himself to be a credible deep threat too they are going to have to contend with him as well. That's a fact.

By the way - I know you think you can statistically prove that Wes Welker is a deep threat WR (though defensive coordinatrs will never cover him that way) but I'm not sure where you're getting your stats. Brady didn't throw ten 20 yard passes to Welker. He threw 2. For Gaffney it was 5 and for Stalworth I believe it was 4 - which is pretty much the same as Reche Caldwell in 2006.

So apparently you consider Reche Caldwell a deep threat as well? If you recall, he was not - which is one of the main reasons why Belichick brought in Moss in the first place.

Of course if you want to add up all the players and combine their statistics, I'm sure you might come close to showing that such a player, rolled into one, could equal Moss's statistics - but that's on paper. Only one guy can play on the field at the same time. That's a statistic that you can't get around.

If everyone wants to believe that there's no way imaginable that the Patriots coaching staff can help Moss become even MORE effective, they are welcome to their opinion.

But try to leave a little room for the suggestion that there IS a way to improve his effectiveness. Although this might boggle the mind of those who are obsessed with statistics, that will likely involve Moss's statistics DROPPING compared to this year.

Yes - he can be MORE effective, and see his statistics drop. That's because ideally, Jackson will step up and show himself to be a credible deep threat, giving defenses pause when considering whether to triple team Moss - and potentially making things just a little bit easier on Moss when he needs to make a critical or even game winning catch.

Quantitative stats are great Deus - but qualitative data is no less important.

JoeSixPat said:

Thanks! So obviously you're saying if Carter had been more of a credible deep threat perhaps the Vikings would have made it past the coference finals.

Indeed it looks like Moss was used even more exclusively as a deep WR that season making him even more of the sole deep target.

What this comes down to is more than a breakdown of seasonal statistics.

Defensive coordinators were not looking at Vikings 1998 statistics when they were deciding how to defend against the Patriots in deep pass situations. They simply looked on the field, saw that Moss was the one and only deep threat, and triple teamed him.

If Jackson can show himself to be a credible deep threat too they are going to have to contend with him as well. That's a fact.

By the way - I know you think you can statistically prove that Wes Welker is a deep threat WR (though defensive coordinatrs will never cover him that way) but I'm not sure where you're getting your stats. Brady didn't throw ten 20 yard passes to Welker. He threw 2. For Gaffney it was 5 and for Stalworth I believe it was 4 - which is pretty much the same as Reche Caldwell in 2006.

So apparently you consider Reche Caldwell a deep threat as well? If you recall, he was not - which is one of the main reasons why Belichick brought in Moss in the first place.

Of course if you want to add up all the players and combine their statistics, I'm sure you might come close to showing that such a player, rolled into one, could equal Moss's statistics - but that's on paper. Only one guy can play on the field at the same time. That's a statistic that you can't get around.

If everyone wants to believe that there's no way imaginable that the Patriots coaching staff can help Moss become even MORE effective, they are welcome to their opinion.

But try to leave a little room for the suggestion that there IS a way to improve his effectiveness. Although this might boggle the mind of those who are obsessed with statistics, that will likely involve Moss's statistics DROPPING compared to this year.

Yes - he can be MORE effective, and see his statistics drop. That's because ideally, Jackson will step up and show himself to be a credible deep threat, giving defenses pause when considering whether to triple team Moss - and potentially making things just a little bit easier on Moss when he needs to make a critical or even game winning catch.

Quantitative stats are great Deus - but qualitative data is no less important.

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You keep trying to have things both ways. Either the team has the talent or it has the coaching abilities to overcome the lack of talent. It has to be one or the other, given the actual success the team had.

Deus Irae said:

You keep trying to have things both ways. Either the team has the talent or it has the coaching abilities to overcome the lack of talent. It has to be one or the other, given the actual success the team had.

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I think you may have posted this in the wrong thread as it doesn't appear to make any sense in the context of this discussion.

Go back and read the initial posts in this thread and you'll see plenty of Patriots fans who have expressed a belief or desire that Moss could be used more effectively. Before you remind them of Moss' TD record and the Patriots' offensive ranking of #1, I think we can safely assume they realize all of that, and yet they all still recognize that there's room for Moss to be even MORE effective next season - even if his personal statitics don't prove it.

If Moss sees even a fraction of reduction of triple team coverage in critical deep pass situations next season - whether due to an improved alternative deep threat or other adjuestments - and makes one catch that makes the difference between winning and losing in the Super Bowl, I'd count that as a meaningul improvement in his effectiveness, even if his statistics, and the overall rankings of the Patriot's offense, drops compared to last year.

I'm sure if that happens you'll be able to statistically prove that Moss was less effective this season, but of course we'll all be too busy celebrating to notice or care!

I don't worry about Moss. Bill B will fix things if they double up on him plus someone else will be open. Brady needs more time as defenses learned how to handle the Pats.

Moss will be fine. Even if he has lost a step he's still better than the vast majority of defenders he will face. The Pats have enough weapons to beat the double team.

Xzibit23 said:

Couple of points:

1)Receptions are the most overrated statistic for a receiver, the only value in accounting for recs is the correlating relationship they have on Yards and TDs, the two key stats for any WR. Plus Moss has always been a relatively low reception receiver who has insanely high Yards/rec, the ultimate big play receiver basically.

2)Of the 4 games you picked, he had 100+ Yards in 2 of them, and had 5 TDs...that alone should ease the worrying for many.

3)Not sure how well you remember the games, but bad weather was a HUGE factor, particularly against Baltimore and the Jets, the wind was ridiculous and basically took away the big play. Actually, there was a play against Baltimore where Moss BADLY beat Mccallister and Brady threw it up but the ball just hung there and was 20 Yards short cause of the wind.

4)You can look at 4 game stretches of any player, including Brady who had his own bad stretch, and make them tell you anything.

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Good points about the bad weather reminder.....thx