Interesting topic that will see several MORE similar threads as the year goes on, and infinitely more after the season is over.
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1. Collins - Collins is a blue chip athlete who is developing into a "special" player and might be the top FA prospect in this year's FA class. Not only is he good, he's dependable. This issue here isn't can the Pats pay him. Miguel outlined a potential contract that would be VERY competitive top of market type deal that would keep them from retaining most of their other FA's. The biggest issue with Collins is, does he WANT to stay here. Lets face it, living in Foxboro for more than half the year isn't for everyone. IIRC, there have been reports that Collins might want to go back to the south. If that's so, then like with Revis who wanted to be in NYC, no amount of money is going to get him to stay, UNLESS we seriously overpay and we know that that's isn't happening.
2. Hightower - I don't know how much injuries will be a big factor with the Pats since Hightower has shown tremendous toughness in playing through injuries. Like Mayo, Danta is one of BB's favorite and the QB of the defense. They will be very loathe to let him go. Again Miguel showed us a very realistic, top of the market deal that will allow us to keep him. More importantly, I think he WANTS to be here.
3. Logan Ryan, has improved every year he's been here and has developed into a very good NFL CB. Not a "shut down" guy, but very good and just as important, dependable. I think we will be able to keep IF Collins decides to leave because then there will be enough space to pay him. Otherwise, I think he's the good player that we will have to let go.
4. Malcolm Butler - His situation is kind of unfortunate. He's not going to get paid what he's worth. The Pats will give him a first round tender, which will give him a big pay raise, but not the one he'd get if he were a UFA. I don't think anyone will want to pay him as a top 15 CB AND give up a first round draft pick, so Malcolm will be with us next year.
5. JSheard - I don't think he's going to put up the kind of numbers that get you a top pass rusher's deal. It's just so hard to do in this system. But he's already the 4th highest cap # on the team at $6.8MM and I don't think the Pats will want to go to something that averages $8MM or more. Especially when Flowers is beginning (dare I say it) to flower. If stays, it will have to be on a deal that keeps him in the $7MM range for 2-3 years.
6. Long - I think he's come home. The reality is that regardless of what kind of year he has here, he is STILL going to be a 32 year old DE with about 8 sacks in his last season. That would be a great job for us, but are other GM's going to want to pay more than $3MM to lure him away from the best football experience he's ever had.
7. LBG - He's in a similar situation to Long. Next year he is going to be a 30 year old RB going into his 9th year of wear and tear. He will have a fine and productive year with us, but we aren't going to have to offer much of a raise to him (if any) to get him into camp again and see if he can do it again. He'll be back.
8. Bennett - I'm afraid Marty is going to be just a beautiful stranger passing through. He's a $5MM cap hit now, and would likely be in the $7-8MM range on the open market. UNLESS, he takes the $5-6MM deal to stay here for the "off the field benefits" he could get for his media projects.
Another thought is that the Pats might be willing to pay BOTH Gronk and Bennett the top of the TE market contracts. There are several teams that pay 2 WR's big money and THEIR big money is bigger than TE's (though given that TE's do so much more it makes no sense). It might make sense given they pay their WR's relatively short money.
In the end I think Collins will take the money and go where he is more comfortable, THEN we'll see if BB can make Mingo into a "Collins-lite" literally. He has all the athletic abilities of Collins minus about 30lbs of weight and strength. If it works out the defense will be weaker, of course, but to what degree will depend on how good Mingo turns out to be