My husband talked to a football talent evaluator at a conference a few months ago. The guy was working on some really advanced statistical metrics that did an amazing job of predicting college players' success in specific roles. He said he made a presentation on his findings to an NFL GM, and afterwards the GM just said: "You know what I like? Farm kids. A farm kid'll put his elbow in your face just like that. Find me some kids who grew up on farms." Welcome to the non-Ernie-Adams NFL.
There's no question Sam is taking a genuine risk here. But he seems to have made a series of tough but smart strategic decisions over a period of time. I think the boldest, smartest move was to be frank about his orientation with his college team before the season started. Becoming the SEC defensive player of the year and teammate-voted team MVP while openly gay makes it a whole lot harder for drafters to use the excuse that he won't be accepted in a locker room.
So now he's basically saying "screw the insidious grapevine" and daring teams to discriminate. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in a draft setting, where any given pick of a different player will always be defensible based on team needs, etc. It's especially true of a player like Sam who isn't as good an athlete as he is a football player. (Doesn't project well to the Pats, IMO. Maybe as an MLB?)