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- Nov 26, 2009
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I agree to a point.
In the end, as Bill Parcells often says, "You are what your record says you are." In this case the Pats have scored enough points and given up few enough points to be 7--2, which is "what they are." However, I am concerned that the profile of their D, at this time, is also not that of a team that will go deep into January.
So,I think we are probably both not a lot "concerned" as to whether they will win their Division. However, I am more than a "little concerned" about how the current situation suggests this will end.
My binkie statistic is plus/minus in takeaways. After nine games the Patriots are plus 9 - good enough for 3rd in the NFL.
Top three in the AFC are KC (+15), New England (+9), and Indianapolis (+7). The Broncos are a worrisome -1 through nine weeks.
Yards don't mean a whole lot if the opponent is taking the ball away a lot and working on a short field. You can win the yards allowed battle and lose the war.
As far as the Pittsburgh game is concerned, the points allowed had me worried at 24-24. Big Ben was sharp and had found a mismatch with Arrington unable to cover Cotchery for whatever reason. But then all hell broke loose and Ben was getting beaten up and sacked and just looking a bit out of sorts.
It's probably heresy to write this, but I like the urgency and aggressiveness of the defense without Wilfork and Kelly in there. There's a heightened sense of attack in the defense since Patricia and Belichick realize that the Patriots can't stonewall anybody any more.
The defense misses Mayo and his ability to get to the ball from anywhere. But overall, I think this defense will hold its own with everybody if the secondary is intact. The first two games after the bye require Talib and Gregory to be in their usual spots because either QB - Newton or Manning - can carve up a secondary that's not in its proper zones, or staying glued in man-to-man.
If the Patriots get up two scores and the defense can start attacking, Newton could be a problem to contain, but Manning will be in trouble.