Would you give up the 2nd round pick for Percy Harvin?

[Deus Irae]

The Patriots are already paying Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski a combined $16 mill a year AAV to kill teams in the middle of the field.

I think this is a bit misleading, because the 3 players all play different roles, and that's for a good reason. If Welker doesn't return, who's the player that can get open in the middle within 5 yards?

 

[BradyManny]

I think this is a bit misleading, because the 3 players all play different roles, and that's for a good reason. If Welker doesn't return, who's the player that can get open in the middle within 5 yards?

Hernandez or Gronk can both do that. Gronk running down 5 yards and posting up is as effective a short passing game as you'll get; and Hernandez doing like-wise with his YAC ability is also dangerous. No, neither one gets open the way Wes does - nobody does. But the short passing game will not be an issue.

Believe me Deus, I do not take the idea of parting with Welker lightly - it feels about as good as imagining Brady in another uniform or Belichick leaving and coaching another team.

But the reality is, there are a few teams in this league that have been a thorn in our side the last 5 years; and coupled with some terrible luck, poor officiating and untimely injuries, have derailed several championship bids. We cannot control those things - we can only control how we stack up against those teams. If we want to improve our chances of winning the title, we have to get faster on the outside and more versatile. And, sadly, we can't expect to do those two things while retaining Welker at the price he deserves and demands. It's heartbreaking for fans, but that's probably the way it is. He deserves to get paid, and the Pats won't have the cap space for it.

The offensive philosophy McDaniels adopted to start last season has merit in theory, but at the time, his philosophy had no bearing on reality given it made no sense to keep Welker off the field for much lesser receivers in Lloyd or Edelman. However, if the Patriots move on from Wes and Lloyd, they have money to address the position the way they truly want. I expect that they will.

 

[Ivan]

The Patriots are already paying Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski a combined $16 mill a year AAV to kill teams in the middle of the field.

I'm starting to buy Bedard's take on the issue - and accept that Welker is not realistically in the team's plan going forward, despite the fact he remains the 4th most talented player on the team, and the most talented slot receiver in the league. It's tough to swallow considering he very well might be the toughest player on the team, and the one who has sacrificed his body more than any other. Not to mention he's extremely likeable. He's the ideal Patriot. But with Gronk & Hernandez as the core for this offense going forward, can we afford to pay a guy $10 mill annually who doesn't pose a threat on the outside?

Again, if I'm playing with funny money and not worrying about the logistics - having Harvin, a guy who like Hernandez can line up in the slot; backfield; split wide - is extremely valuable to where McD has taken and is taking this offense. Harvin would truly be a nightmare for opposing teams in this offense. Just imagine him lining up at RB with Gronk & Hernandez in the game and lined up as TEs. What does the opposing D do? What personnel do you send out? Now what do they do when Brady audibles and all three of those guys are lined up as WRs? Have fun defending them with the LBs you've put in to stop the run.

McD would kill for this guy on his team, even if it's just a rental.

[


If the reports on Harvin's contract demands are accurate then he won't be here no matter what the trade price is. Gronkowski and Hernandez are already here and letting Welker walk still leaves a massive hole that cannot be replaced without grossly overpaying for a replacement, and other than Harvin i can't think of anyone who is available who could come anywhere close to replacing his production-100+REC and lead the league in YAC and first downs. Julian Edelman's career is a month for Welker, and there is nothing in free agency that can take his place.

They may let him walk, but if they do so without getting a real replacement then it will be the biggest mistake Belichick has ever made and they will pay dearly for it, especially if he goes to a team like Denver.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hernandez or Gronk can both do that...

Neither can do it. That's the point. Well, to be more accurate, Hernandez can do it a little, if he's got the right matchup, but only Welker has the ability to do it consistently.

 

[Ivan]

Hernandez or Gronk can both do that. Gronk running down 5 yards and posting up is as effective a short passing game as you'll get; and Hernandez doing like-wise with his YAC ability is also dangerous. No, neither one gets open the way Wes does - nobody does. But the short passing game will not be an issue.

Believe me Deus, I do not take the idea of parting with Welker lightly - it feels about as good as imagining Brady in another uniform or Belichick leaving and coaching another team.

But the reality is, there are a few teams in this league that have been a thorn in our side the last 5 years; and coupled with some terrible luck, poor officiating and untimely injuries, have derailed several championship bids. We cannot control those things - we can only control how we stack up against those teams. If we want to improve our chances of winning the title, we have to get faster on the outside and more versatile. And, sadly, we can't expect to do those two things while retaining Welker at the price he deserves and demands. It's heartbreaking for fans, but that's probably the way it is. He deserves to get paid, and the Pats won't have the cap space for it.

The offensive philosophy McDaniels adopted to start last season has merit in theory, but at the time, his philosophy had no bearing on reality given it made no sense to keep Welker off the field for much lesser receivers in Lloyd or Edelman. However, if the Patriots move on from Wes and Lloyd, they have money to address the position the way they truly want. I expect that they will.

I love Gronk and Hernandez but neither can get open instantly, Welker can. Both are good receivers in the middle but neither gets open in under 2 seconds, and that is what allows Brady to avoid blitzes all season and saves him a massive beatdown.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The Patriots are already paying Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski a combined $16 mill a year AAV to kill teams in the middle of the field.

I'm starting to buy Bedard's take on the issue - and accept that Welker is not realistically in the team's plan going forward, despite the fact he remains the 4th most talented player on the team, and the most talented slot receiver in the league. It's tough to swallow considering he very well might be the toughest player on the team, and the one who has sacrificed his body more than any other. Not to mention he's extremely likeable. He's the ideal Patriot. But with Gronk & Hernandez as the core for this offense going forward, can we afford to pay a guy $10 mill annually who doesn't pose a threat on the outside?

Again, if I'm playing with funny money and not worrying about the logistics - having Harvin, a guy who like Hernandez can line up in the slot; backfield; split wide - is extremely valuable to where McD has taken and is taking this offense. Harvin would truly be a nightmare for opposing teams in this offense. Just imagine him lining up at RB with Gronk & Hernandez in the game and lined up as TEs. What does the opposing D do? What personnel do you send out? Now what do they do when Brady audibles and all three of those guys are lined up as WRs? Have fun defending them with the LBs you've put in to stop the run.

McD would kill for this guy on his team, even if it's just a rental.

Actually it's $12.8M combined on AAV. And their combined cap hits over the next 3 years when Welker would be on the roster and hitting the cap would average $9.7M combined. And the core has been a little sketchy durability wise compared to Welker. That's one of the issues this team continues to grapple with come playoff time. Not to mention as DI did they don't operate in exactly the same areas. And Welker isn't looking for $10M per. Closer to $8M+.

Rentals are cap and roster depth/young developmental talent killers over time. We've wasted quite a few picks on those over the last few seasons already.

 

[goheels22002]

Definitely not. This is a year with no extra draft picks in the early rounds. My feeling is that the #1 and #2 should be used on defense for a DB and a pass rusher in whatever order makes sense given who is on the board.

Please think about this: Brady has a short shelf life in 2013. What the Patriots need to become is a team that wins with their defense while the transition to a new signal caller is underway in 2015 or so. Now is the time to grab the best young defensive talent possible so that the defense is maturing as the offense undergoes its renewal.

Last year's draft was a huge step in that direction with Hightower, Jones, Dennard and Wilson but the job is not complete.

 

[BradyManny]

Neither can do it. That's the point. Well, to be more accurate, Hernandez can do it a little, if he's got the right matchup, but only Welker has the ability to do it consistently.

You're selling Gronk short - Gronk is permanently open. And his catch-radius is unmatched. He can run down 5 yards, turn and snatch it wherever Brady wants to throw it.

 

[Deus Irae]

You're selling Gronk short - Gronk is permanently open. And his catch-radius is unmatched. He can run down 5 yards, turn and snatch it wherever Brady wants to throw it.

I'm not selling Gronk short at all. Gronk can't shake loose in 5 yards. It's not his skill at the NFL level. Within 5 yards, Gronk either has position or he doesn't, but that's based upon the defender, not on him. Welker can flat-out get open by beating his man in that short space. What you're basically saying is that Gronk is open even when he's not open.

There's a difference.

 

[Ivan]

I'm not selling Gronk short at all. Gronk can't shake loose in 5 yards. It's not his skill at the NFL level. Within 5 yards, Gronk either has position or he doesn't, but that's based upon the defender, not on him. Welker can flat-out get open by beating his man in that short space. What you're basically saying is that Gronk is open even when he's not open.

There's a difference.

Imo this was why Belichick went after Welker in the first place. after a season where Brady took a beating waiting for Reche Caldwell and Co. to get open he wanted a player who could give Brady an immediate relief from the blitz, Welker gave them that and went on to give them unprecedented production beyond that. There simply is no player available who can replace that, Welker needs to be re-signed.

 

[BradyManny]

Actually it's $12.8M combined on AAV. And their combined cap hits over the next 3 years when Welker would be on the roster and hitting the cap would average $9.7M combined. And the core has been a little sketchy durability wise compared to Welker. That's one of the issues this team continues to grapple with come playoff time. Not to mention as DI did they don't operate in exactly the same areas. And Welker isn't looking for $10M per. Closer to $8M+.

Rentals are cap and roster depth/young developmental talent killers over time. We've wasted quite a few picks on those over the last few seasons already.

We've also wasted just shy of a dozen 2nd & 3rd picks on college players in the last five years. Whether used to draft or flipped for vets, anything after the 1st round takes on considerable risk and the likelihood of a disappointing ROI. Belichick has been among the best out of getting something out of those picks, and he's done it in a variety of ways.

I have no problem with the team's approach with Talib/Ocho/Haynesworth. It was worth a shot in each case, and the likelihood is that the returns we got on them, however small, would not have been exceeded by the players drafted in their place.

In this case, the one year rental would also pay off in a compensation pick that might be no more than a round later than what we'd give up. That's not a steep price.

Again, don't get me wrong. I'd love to keep Welker. Especially if its at 8M a year, but we know he can get more. And is worth more.

No one is going to argue that keeping Welker doesn't improve the team. It's just a question of how best to allocate the dollars.

 

[patsfan-1982]

high Dtaft picks and a big contract something the pats front office i dont think has done since BB has been here i dont see it happeing... but they could Draft Tavon Austin in the 2th round if they want a fast WR that bad

 

[BradyManny]

I'm not selling Gronk short at all. Gronk can't shake loose in 5 yards. It's not his skill at the NFL level. Within 5 yards, Gronk either has position or he doesn't, but that's based upon the defender, not on him. Welker can flat-out get open by beating his man in that short space. What you're basically saying is that Gronk is open even when he's not open.

There's a difference.

Yes, that is exactly what I'm saying: Gronk is open when he's not open - he can be "thrown open" even in tight coverage due to his size, hands and catch radius. That is arguably even just as valuable a skill as Welker's ability to shake his man.

 

[BradyManny]

I love Gronk and Hernandez but neither can get open instantly, Welker can. Both are good receivers in the middle but neither gets open in under 2 seconds, and that is what allows Brady to avoid blitzes all season and saves him a massive beatdown.

Again, I disagree with both you and DI here. I think both excel at getting open and getting open quickly. And in the case of Gronk, no one on the team is better at making a catch in tight coverage. And more importantly, he's earned Brady's trust at that.

 

[Ivan]

Again, I disagree with both you and DI here. I think both excel at getting open and getting open quickly. And in the case of Gronk, no one on the team is better at making a catch in tight coverage. And more importantly, he's earned Brady's trust at that.

I'll believe that when I see it, and so far I haven't.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes, that is exactly what I'm saying: Gronk is open when he's not open - he can be "thrown open" even in tight coverage due to his size, hands and catch radius. That is arguably even just as valuable a skill as Welker's ability to shake his man.

And this is not what happens within 5 yards. You can't throw Gronk open that quickly because he doesn't have that level of burst off the line.

Zolak was just talking about some of this stuff on the radio, as a matter of fact, and he was saying basically the same thing I've been saying. Now, you can take that to heart, or you can take it with a grain of salt, but he agrees with the idea that we're talking about 3 distinct skill sets.

 

[BradyManny]

And this is not what happens within 5 yards. You can't throw Gronk open that quickly because he doesn't have that level of burst off the line.

Zolak was just talking about some of this stuff on the radio, as a matter of fact, and he was saying basically the same thing I've been saying. Now, you can take that to heart, or you can take it with a grain of salt, but he agrees with the idea that we're talking about 3 distinct skill sets.

I agree there are several different skill sets we're talking about here. But of all the Patriots, Gronkowski has the most diverse set of receiving capabilities of any of their receivers.

I won't argue that Gronk clearly does not have the same burst that Wes has. Few do.

Again, I cannot argue that taking Wes away from the offense isn't a detriment. It obviously is. It's a huge void, but we can go at defenses in the middle of the field nonetheless. In some sense, we'd have to fill him by committee - but that's what McDaniels wants. He wants guys with diverse skill sets that make them interchangeable so that any given offensive package can morph into any formation or play that they want to run against that defense.

If you can re-sign Wes Welker and still get a viable deep threat and one other viable outside receiving option (and at this point, I'd even consider Edelman as a decent option for that role), then yes, retain Wes. Please, god, retain Wes. But that is easier said then done. We tried Lloyd, and he was close, but didn't quite cut it. An outside receiver is going to be expensive, and we're either going to have to throw multiple options against the wall to see what sticks, or sign a legitimate top tier guy.

But I think we can agree that our deficiency on the outside is a serious issue that needs addressing. My contention is that it probably needs addressing more urgently than the slot position, where Hernandez, Gronkowski, and Edelman (should he be retained cheaply) can provide adequate play, albeit not on Wes' level.

 

[Deus Irae]

...But I think we can agree that our deficiency on the outside is a serious issue that needs addressing. My contention is that it probably needs addressing more urgently than the slot position, where Hernandez, Gronkowski, and Edelman (should he be retained cheaply) can provide adequate play, albeit not on Wes' level.

But this is shortsighted because, if Welker walks, the slot position suddenly becomes just as 'urgent' a need as an outside receiver, particularly because Hernandez can't seem to stay healthy. This is what people keep ignoring.

And Edelman blows in the slot, in comparison to Welker.

 

[Rob0729]

Well, if this is true, people can stop thinking about the Pats trading for Harvin:

The high-ranking Vikings source told Anderson that Harvin classifies himself among the NFL's top wideouts and expects a contract similar to the deals recently signed by Detroit's Calvin Johnson (eight years, $132 million) and Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald (eight years, $120 million).

Percy Harvin holding out won't help him get contract from Minnesota Vikings, team source says - ESPN

Good luck there Percy. For a guy who has never had 1,000 yards receiving in a season, you might want to set your sights a little lower.

 

[BradyManny]

But this is shortsighted because, if Welker walks, the slot position suddenly becomes just as 'urgent' a need as an outside receiver, particularly because Hernandez can't seem to stay healthy. This is what people keep ignoring.

And Edelman blows in the slot, in comparison to Welker.

Hernandez got rolled up on last year and got a high-ankle sprain - it was unavoidable. Much like Gronkowski, it's difficult to label the guy as injury-prone with these injuries.

When guys have muscle-related injuries (hamstrings, shoulders, etc.) then you have to worry more.

As for Edelman, up until last year, he absolutely blew as a receiver on the outside, though his production in 2009 in the slot in Welker's stead was decent. Last year, he showed some signs of improvement on the outside just before his injury, and we didn't see him much in the slot. You cannot count on him as a Welker replacement by any stretch, but as a cheap backup slot, 2nd outside WR, and top tier punt returner, I think he's worth keeping. I was hard on the guy all last season, but when he got open on a couple deep routes just before his injury, it became apparent that what McD saw on the practice field might inevitably translate to the field.