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I do not believe that we can adequately replace our problem at 3-4 DE in this off-season in time for the 2010 regular season. There are no top-tier draft prospects and the rest seem to be forcing round players (tee hee) into square holes. Lots of good 3-technique tackles this year though.
We have also holes at both OLB positions, as shown by our complete absence of a pass rush and our weakness against the run. We didn't draft a replacement for Vrabel last year and Adalius Thomas will be cut. Free Agency is a lovely idea but the bucket is empty and the competition will be ridiculous. For those players who are UFAs, I believe that they will receive some of the most lucrative deals ever seen. Karlos Dansby is gonna get paid, big time
Unlike the Raiders, our free agents are keen to re-sign with us. I keep Banta-Cain and Burgess, since they've had a chance to learn the plays, which is always crucial in a complex defense such as this one. That doesn't mean they're good enough to start in the base 3-4 though.
Who has been our most effective and adaptable defensive lineman? Step forward Mike Wright. He had an excellent game against the Bills and didn't sit on his new contract like certain players in the NFL. He continues to work hard. I believe that he would respond well to the challenge of starting each week alongside Wilfork and Warren. He will not be Seymour, but he won't let the team down.
Who are our best current OLBs, excluding Adalius Thomas? Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess. The former had 10 sacks but can't play the run, while the latter is still adapting. I think Burgess made good steps but clearly isn't there yet.
Ninkovich and Crable are backups, if they even qualify for that title. Ninkovich has worked hard but you wouldn't want him starting multiple games for you. With Free Agency a dud we need to draft two OLBs using our picks. If they can start the first game, fantastic. If they can't, let's hope that they can contribute on passing downs. If they can't do that, you're looking at busts that Dolly Parton would be proud of.
We have 4 top picks in the draft and two of them need to be used on OLBs. I have advocated drafting at least one larger OLB than usual ('elephant') to fill this role, hence my consistent interest in Carlos Dunlap and Austen Lane. Such a position requires a rare combination of size and speed that is very difficult to find regularly. Just look at Peppers (6'6, 283), who went 2nd overall. Can we draft players in that kind of mold to play 3-4 OLB? I want to aim high.
Ignoring trades, a 1st/2nd round selection of Dunlap/Hardy, Ducasse, Micah Johnson and Lane is my most achievable view of perfection. Until tomorrow, anyway.
This would mean a defense of:
Code:Bodden - Meriweather - Sanders/Chung - Butler Johnson - Mayo Lane Dunlap/Hardy Wright - Wilfork - Warren
with Banta-Cain, Pryor and Guyton coming onto the field on passing downs, as well as extra DBs.
Brilliant post.
First, I totally agree with you regarding OLBs. Carlos Dunlap and Austen Lane are my top choices for the strongside and weakside positions, respectively. They have the size, length, strength burst and agility necessary to play the complex roles which BB demands. The opportunity to get 2 such guys is unique. Most people are fixated on the Jerry Hughes/Sergio Kindle/Ricky Sapp types, who aren't nearly strong enough to set the edge for us.
Second, your point about Mike Wright is a great one. He was voted most improved player on the team, and he really stepped up this year. He's not Richard Seymour, but I don't see any rookie displacing him in 2010. I think it's a total waste of time to draft a Jared Odrick or Arthur Jones with the expectation that they will improve our DL in 2010. I'd rather not use one of our top 4 picks on a 3-4 DE (except perhaps a hyrbid guy like Dan Williams, who could also play the nose and who is a different kind of beast altogether), but perhaps target a developmental guy like Clifton Geathers. If we really want a top end 3-4 DE, 2011 is a much better draft, with Cameron Heyward, Cameron Jordan, and Jared Crick.
We also need help up the middle, with a true SILB. You may be right about FA and Dansby, but I would make a serious run in that direction. I'm not sure Micah Johnson is a 2nd round talent. But otherwise, I'm in total agreement.