Biggest need 3-4 END?

[mayoclinic]

I do not believe that we can adequately replace our problem at 3-4 DE in this off-season in time for the 2010 regular season. There are no top-tier draft prospects and the rest seem to be forcing round players (tee hee) into square holes. Lots of good 3-technique tackles this year though.

We have also holes at both OLB positions, as shown by our complete absence of a pass rush and our weakness against the run. We didn't draft a replacement for Vrabel last year and Adalius Thomas will be cut. Free Agency is a lovely idea but the bucket is empty and the competition will be ridiculous. For those players who are UFAs, I believe that they will receive some of the most lucrative deals ever seen. Karlos Dansby is gonna get paid, big time

Unlike the Raiders, our free agents are keen to re-sign with us. I keep Banta-Cain and Burgess, since they've had a chance to learn the plays, which is always crucial in a complex defense such as this one. That doesn't mean they're good enough to start in the base 3-4 though.

Who has been our most effective and adaptable defensive lineman? Step forward Mike Wright. He had an excellent game against the Bills and didn't sit on his new contract like certain players in the NFL. He continues to work hard. I believe that he would respond well to the challenge of starting each week alongside Wilfork and Warren. He will not be Seymour, but he won't let the team down.

Who are our best current OLBs, excluding Adalius Thomas? Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess. The former had 10 sacks but can't play the run, while the latter is still adapting. I think Burgess made good steps but clearly isn't there yet.

Ninkovich and Crable are backups, if they even qualify for that title. Ninkovich has worked hard but you wouldn't want him starting multiple games for you. With Free Agency a dud we need to draft two OLBs using our picks. If they can start the first game, fantastic. If they can't, let's hope that they can contribute on passing downs. If they can't do that, you're looking at busts that Dolly Parton would be proud of.

We have 4 top picks in the draft and two of them need to be used on OLBs. I have advocated drafting at least one larger OLB than usual ('elephant') to fill this role, hence my consistent interest in Carlos Dunlap and Austen Lane. Such a position requires a rare combination of size and speed that is very difficult to find regularly. Just look at Peppers (6'6, 283), who went 2nd overall. Can we draft players in that kind of mold to play 3-4 OLB? I want to aim high.

Ignoring trades, a 1st/2nd round selection of Dunlap/Hardy, Ducasse, Micah Johnson and Lane is my most achievable view of perfection. Until tomorrow, anyway.

This would mean a defense of:

Bodden - Meriweather - Sanders/Chung - Butler
           Johnson   -    Mayo
    Lane                           Dunlap/Hardy
         Wright - Wilfork - Warren

with Banta-Cain, Pryor and Guyton coming onto the field on passing downs, as well as extra DBs.

Brilliant post.

First, I totally agree with you regarding OLBs. Carlos Dunlap and Austen Lane are my top choices for the strongside and weakside positions, respectively. They have the size, length, strength burst and agility necessary to play the complex roles which BB demands. The opportunity to get 2 such guys is unique. Most people are fixated on the Jerry Hughes/Sergio Kindle/Ricky Sapp types, who aren't nearly strong enough to set the edge for us.

Second, your point about Mike Wright is a great one. He was voted most improved player on the team, and he really stepped up this year. He's not Richard Seymour, but I don't see any rookie displacing him in 2010. I think it's a total waste of time to draft a Jared Odrick or Arthur Jones with the expectation that they will improve our DL in 2010. I'd rather not use one of our top 4 picks on a 3-4 DE (except perhaps a hyrbid guy like Dan Williams, who could also play the nose and who is a different kind of beast altogether), but perhaps target a developmental guy like Clifton Geathers. If we really want a top end 3-4 DE, 2011 is a much better draft, with Cameron Heyward, Cameron Jordan, and Jared Crick.

We also need help up the middle, with a true SILB. You may be right about FA and Dansby, but I would make a serious run in that direction. I'm not sure Micah Johnson is a 2nd round talent. But otherwise, I'm in total agreement.

 

[Nonentity]

I'm actually not sure we can afford Dansby.

We need to re-sign the following players to long-term deals:

Tom Brady
Vince Wilfork
Logan Mankins
Leigh Bodden
Stephen Gostowski
Kevin Faulk
Tully Banta-Cain
Ben Watson?

All such long-term deals require upfront money as a signing bonus. That's a lot of money to be shelling out. But, strategically, it still makes more sense to structure the deals to take advantage of the uncapped year, even if you can't create silly structures. As long as the reductions in salary are less than 50% from year to year (e.g. 2010 $10m, 2011 $5.1m, 2012 $2.7m) then it won't be pro-rated over the length of the deal.

I still presume that there will be a new CBA for the 2011 season and that this will include a salary cap. We need to make sure that by the time the new cap is in force, that we don't experience problems from having spent too much money in signing free agents to long-term deals, whether those players are our own or not. Dansby is a very good player but we need to determine at what salary he represents good value and at what salary he does not.

 

[BradyManny]

As I said in another thread, I see the Patriots with having about $40-$50 million to work with this offseason. We'll be under $90 once AD is cut/traded. With no cap and being in a big market with a successful team, and realizing that even if a cap is re-instated this year or next it will likely be near $140 million (my guesstimate, maybe Miguel can weigh in), I think the Pats have to be prepared to spend a lot this offseason.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm actually not sure we can afford Dansby.

We need to re-sign the following players to long-term deals:

Tom Brady
Vince Wilfork
Logan Mankins
Leigh Bodden
Stephen Gostowski
Kevin Faulk
Tully Banta-Cain
Ben Watson?

All such long-term deals require upfront money as a signing bonus. That's a lot of money to be shelling out. But, strategically, it still makes more sense to structure the deals to take advantage of the uncapped year, even if you can't create silly structures. As long as the reductions in salary are less than 50% from year to year (e.g. 2010 $10m, 2011 $5.1m, 2012 $2.7m) then it won't be pro-rated over the length of the deal.

I still presume that there will be a new CBA for the 2011 season and that this will include a salary cap. We need to make sure that by the time the new cap is in force, that we don't experience problems from having spent too much money in signing free agents to long-term deals, whether those players are our own or not. Dansby is a very good player but we need to determine at what salary he represents good value and at what salary he does not.

As I said in another thread, I see the Patriots with having about $40-$50 million to work with this offseason. We'll be under $90 once AD is cut/traded. With no cap and being in a big market with a successful team, and realizing that even if a cap is re-instated this year or next it will likely be near $140 million (my guesstimate, maybe Miguel can weigh in), I think the Pats have to be prepared to spend a lot this offseason.

Both good points. Let's look at the offseason in a bit more detail.

Excluding the 8 players listed by Nonentity who should ideally get long term extensions (including Brady), and assuming that Adalius Thomas is cut or traded in the offseason, according to Miguel's cap page the 2011 cap hit for the core players who are signed long term works out to something like the following (players who's contracts could be reworked or who could be cut for non-performance are underlined):

0. Cost of trading Adalius Thomas - $5,007,280
1. WR Randy Moss - $11,257,280
2. DE Ty Warren - $5,490,612
3. C Dan Koppen - $5,007,280
4. OT Matt Light - $4,507,280
5. WR Wes Welker - $4,232,280
6. OT Nick Kaczur - $3,582,280 (cost to cut/trade = $875,000)
7. CB Shawn Springs - $3,257,280 (cost to cut/trade = $900,000)
8. S James Sanders - $2,987,280
9. ILB Jerod Mayo - $2,932,280
10. RB Fred Taylor - $2,732,280 (cost to cut/trade = $725,000)
11. TE Chris Baker - $2,307,280
12. RB Lawrence Maroney - $2,009,780
13. DE Mike Wright - $1,737,280
14. S Brandon Meriweather - $1,737,280
15. RB Sammie Morris - $1,382,280 (cost to cut/trade = $375,000)
16. S Patrick Chung - $987,280
17. DT Ron Brace - $962,280
18. CB Darius Butler - $944,780
19. S Brandon McGowan - $912,280
20. OLB Rob Ninkovich - $773,946
21. ILB Eric Alexander - $769,280
22. RB Sam Aiken - $767,280
23. OG/C Dan Connolly - $765,613
24. OT Mark LeVoir - $740,613
25. OT Sebastian Vollmer - $707,280
26. CB Terrance Wheatley - $699,780
27. OLB Shawn Crable - $677,405
28. WR Brandon Tate - $591,030
29. WR Isaiah Stanbeck - $552,280
30. CB Jonathan Wilhite - $578,655
31. ST Matt Slater - $521,030
32. OG Rich Ohnrberger - $515,030
33. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis - $477,280
34. OG George Bussey - $440,230
35. DT Myron Pryor - $422,030
36. LS Jake Ingram - $419,780
37. WR Julian Edelman - $414,455
38. QB Brian Hoyer - $406,466
39. CB/ST Kyle Arrington - $402,280
40. ILB Thomas Williams - $402,280
41. OG Ryan Wendell - $402,280
42. OLB Bruce Davis - $402,280
43. QB Jeff Rowe - $402,280
44. RB Eric Kettani - $327,280
45. DT Daryl Richard - $327,280
46. DT Adrian Grady - $327,280
47. TE Rob Myers - $327,280
48. WR Darnell Jenkins - $327,280
49. TE Robbie Agnone - $327,280
50. RB Shun White - $327,280
51. WR Tyree Barnes - $327,280

Note: The cost to cut/trade is only for transactions before June 1.

So the total cap money invested in those 51 players, plus trading or cutting Adalius Thomas, totals $75,780,835. Plus roughly another $8M could be saved by cutting or tradding Sammie Morris, Fred Taylor, Shawn Springs and Nick Kaczur (not that I am suggesting that should necessarily be done, but none of the 4 played up to their contracts). And I suspect more could be saved by restructuring some contracts (Randy Moss, for example).

In addition, Miguel's page doesn't list ILB Tyrone McKenzie, who is under contract through 2012. I'm not sure what his cap hit is. He signed a 4 year contract worth $3.124M including a $631,000 signing bonus.

The 2009 NFL salary cap was $128M. The 2008 salary cap was $116M. The 2007 salary cap was $109M. So I think that it is fair to say that if 2010 were a capped year, the cap would be at least $140M, which means that we would have roughly $65M to spend. I also think it's fair to assume that a 2011 capped year would have a cap of somewhere upwards of $150M.

Brady's current 2010 cap hit is $10,227,280. The cost of extending him should probably not significantly increase that cap hit. Subtract that and you still have around $55-60M to spend on re-signings, rookies, and external FAs.

In addition to the 7 players mentioned (minus Brady), the following players would need to be addressed:

- ERFA ILB Gary Guyton
- ERFA S/ST Bret Lockett
- RFA OLB Pierre Woods
- RFA RB Chris Taylor
- RFA S/ST Bret Lockett
- UFA OLB Derrick Burgess
- UFA DE Jarvis Green
- UFA OG Stephen Neal
- UFA P Chris Hanson

Junior Seau has retired. Stephen Neal may retire. Gary Guyton and Bret Locket are ERFAs and are not free to negotiate with any other team. They can be brought back fairly cheaply. Most of the others are cost/vale decisions, and should take a back seat to the major signings.

Subtracting roughly $6-7M for the rookie pool (our rookie pool was $6M in 2009, with 12 picks), we should have around $45-50M+ to re-sign our own FAs and sign external FAs, possibly more if we cut or trade a few people orrestructure a few contracts. And that would include roughly 60 players under contract (the 51 listed plus Brady and McKenzie, plus roughly 7 rookies going into camp).

Of the key Pats FAs to sign, I could see something like the following:

- Wilfork - franchised or extended, roughly an $8M cap hit
- Bodden - should be able to re-sign him for around a $6M hit
- Mankins - under $3M if tendered as an RFA; around a $6M hit if extended
- Gostkowski - around $2.5M if tendered as an RFA; around $3-4M hit if extended
- Watson - around a $4M hit if extended
- Faulk - should be able to re-sign him fairly cheaply; lets say $2M hit
- TBC - should be able to re-sign him for $2-3M hit

Those 7 would total about $31M, leaving close to $20M to play with. I think that puts us in position to make a run at a couple of external FAs. I can't see Dansby getting more than James Harrison's $51M 6 year deal from Pittsburgh with $20M in signing bonuses. Expensive, and perhaps the Pats won't go that high, but not because they don't have the money. We should be able to add Dansby, a 3rd WR like Antonio Bryant, and possibly a couple of low-mid priced guys (or bringing back some guys like Derrick Burgess or Jarvis Green) with that kind of room.

I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just saying that I think that the money will be there if the team wants to be aggressive in FA.

 

[satz]

* brace is not a NT prospect.vince,case hampton and every other NT is 6 feet - 6 2 tops. NT position requires alot of positioning and getting low. Brace at 6 5 is just too tall to play NT.Maybe he will become 1 down the road in a few years but he is not a natural fit.

* OLB take time to develop even merriman ,ware took a while and the number of bust in the top half is too high .so depending on a rookie to contribute is a big step so forget starting till end of the year if he is special.so 3 rookies in a 3-4 starting LB means we should consider trading brady as we are full rebuild mode for 2013 and beyond.

* Vince might holdout and if he holds out for say 2 weeks into the regular season he will be traded.But as the draft is already gone it will be a 2011 pick.

* 4-3 needs 1 great pass rusher and 1 avg 1 . All out guy including burgess are too small for 4-3 ends to no idea we can find 2 guys out of no where.

 

[mayoclinic]

* brace is not a NT prospect.vince,case hampton and every other NT is 6 feet - 6 2 tops. NT position requires alot of positioning and getting low. Brace at 6 5 is just too tall to play NT.Maybe he will become 1 down the road in a few years but he is not a natural fit.

Ron Brace is listed as 6'3" on the NFL web site. Kris Jenkins plays NT just fine at 6'4". Jamal Williams was 6'3". Terrance Cody is considered a NT prospect at 6'5" 360#. Ted Washington did just fine at 6'5".

* OLB take time to develop even merriman ,ware took a while and the number of bust in the top half is too high .so depending on a rookie to contribute is a big step so forget starting till end of the year if he is special.so 3 rookies in a 3-4 starting LB means we should consider trading brady as we are full rebuild mode for 2013 and beyond.

Bringing in veterans also takes time, as Adalius Thomas and Derrick Burgess have proved.

I think the most likely scenario is that we re-sign Burgess and Banta-Cain and that they start. Meanwhile, we draft 2 high ceiling rookies, who should be able to get some playing time. Guys like Dunlap and Lane can make an impact immediately playing 4-3 DE in some sets, while they learn the OLB position.

The fact is, what we have now isn't adequate, so we're either going to continue with it or we're going to have to pay the price of some new guys going through a learning curve.

* Vince might holdout and if he holds out for say 2 weeks into the regular season he will be traded.But as the draft is already gone it will be a 2011 pick.

Wilfork holding out is always a risk of franchising him and not reaching a long-term extension. MgT has suggested that unless Wilfork signs a long term extension that drafting a 3-4 NT like Terrance Cody or Dan Williams should be a serious option, to guard against that risk.

* 4-3 needs 1 great pass rusher and 1 avg 1 . All out guy including burgess are too small for 4-3 ends to no idea we can find 2 guys out of no where.

I suspect that we could plug Carlos Dunlap or Jason Pierre-Paul in day 1 into a 4-3 set and that they would bring more pressure than we have had in the past 2 years.

 

[alvinnf]

I suspect that we could plug Carlos Dunlap or Jason Pierre-Paul in day 1 into a 4-3 set and that they would bring more pressure than we have had in the past 2 years.

I completely agree.... I don't know about the who best fits, but I think the idea of adding someone to a four man front is the right move. Mostly, because I believe that Guyton and Mayo could flourish sooner rather than later in this front. The question is what type of 43 best suits our current personnel and how does Warren fit in. Wilfork I feel could play either inside positions, so you have Pryor and Wright to rotate into the other tackle. Lose Wilfork on 3rd down and your in business.

 

[mayoclinic]

I completely agree.... I don't know about the who best fits, but I think the idea of adding someone to a four man front is the right move. Mostly, because I believe that Guyton and Mayo could flourish sooner rather than later in this front. The question is what type of 43 best suits our current personnel and how does Warren fit in. Wilfork I feel could play either inside positions, so you have Pryor and Wright to rotate into the other tackle. Lose Wilfork on 3rd down and your in business.

Mayo's and Guyton's strengths are similar - their ability to cover a large amount of territory because of their speed and range. That's wasted putting them in a 3-4 set, particularly using one of them at SILB, for which neither is suited.

If you don't want to draft a true 3-4 SILB to allow Mayo to be a playmaker, then run a "big nickel" 4-2-5 with 3 safeties (Meriweather, Chung, and either Sanders or McGowan) in the secondary, Mayo and Guyton at LB, and a 4 man DL. If you had a couple of pass rushers like Dunlap and Austen Lane at DE and Wifork and Warren (or Brace, or Pryor, or Wright) at DT, then you could generate a lot of pressure up front and allow your linebackers to run around and make plays.

 

[Nonentity]

(snip)

Those 7 would total about $31M, leaving close to $20M to play with. I think that puts us in position to make a run at a couple of external FAs. I can't see Dansby getting more than James Harrison's $51M 6 year deal from Pittsburgh with $20M in signing bonuses. Expensive, and perhaps the Pats won't go that high, but not because they don't have the money. We should be able to add Dansby, a 3rd WR like Antonio Bryant, and possibly a couple of low-mid priced guys (or bringing back some guys like Derrick Burgess or Jarvis Green) with that kind of room.

I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just saying that I think that the money will be there if the team wants to be aggressive in FA.

A fantastic piece of analysis. I didn't realise quite how far under the cap we really are, it's obscene.

I still like Micah Johnson in the 2nd round, but the value in drafting him there will really be determined by our success in getting Dansby in free agency prior to the draft. If we get Dansby then there's less need and we can instead make a run at a WR/RB playmaker in the 2nd, e.g. Arrelious Benn or Golden Tate.

Ron Brace is listed as 6'3" on the NFL web site. Kris Jenkins plays NT just fine at 6'4". Jamal Williams was 6'3". Terrance Cody is considered a NT prospect at 6'5" 360#. Ted Washington did just fine at 6'5".

I researched a lot of the top NFL nose tackles for a post a few days ago in a different thread. Essentially it's all about build over height/weight. If you're 6'1 you can get away with being 330lbs, if you're 6'4 you need to be 350lbs minimum. Ted Washington was 6'5 and between 365 and 375lbs.

Brace looks like a nose tackle. I'm not convinced that he'll make it in the NFL but it won't be his body that lets him down.

Wilfork holding out is always a risk of franchising him and not reaching a long-term extension. MgT has suggested that unless Wilfork signs a long term extension that drafting a 3-4 NT like Terrance Cody or Dan Williams should be a serious option, to guard against that risk.

Personally I would just get into negotiations now and get the deal made. He's an experienced NT who was one of the team's better players last year. He's earnt the extension with his play and his attitude. There's been no suggestion from his camp that he wants stupid Haynesworth money. We're looking at $8m/year which seems reasonable, it's the same level as Tommie Harris signed with the Bears.
It Is What It Is Mankins, Wilfork discuss their deals

I completely agree.... I don't know about the who best fits, but I think the idea of adding someone to a four man front is the right move. Mostly, because I believe that Guyton and Mayo could flourish sooner rather than later in this front. The question is what type of 43 best suits our current personnel and how does Warren fit in. Wilfork I feel could play either inside positions, so you have Pryor and Wright to rotate into the other tackle. Lose Wilfork on 3rd down and your in business.

Honestly I don't think Guyton is the future. We saw that this year. A good rotational player but not an every down player. He just can't handle the run all that well. We need someone else at the position long-term with Guyton as backup - McClain, Dansby, Johnson, any of those will do. I don't want to be gashed on the ground like we were last season.

EDIT: mayoclinic just said it better than I could

 

[dryheat44]

I suspect that we could plug Carlos Dunlap or Jason Pierre-Paul in day 1 into a 4-3 set and that they would bring more pressure than we have had in the past 2 years.

I notice you've been strongly advocating Carlos Dunlap as of late. I was doing some reading today and came across this scouting report on Dunlap. How does it jibe with what you watched on Saturdays last fall? I sort of agree with him, but I'm sure you've watched him play double that I have. Is the scout way off (possible -- he has an internet site, not an NFL job)? If not, it seems a big risk to draft this guy in the first round.

However, I'm done with Dunlap as a prospect. We are nine games into the season and I just haven't seen the upside or consistency to give Dunlap a second-round grade. I would draft Dunlap late in the second round because this is a weak draft class, but I think he is the most overrated defensive player in the country.

When I put on the tape of Vanderbilt-Florida this week, I just don't see the production, athleticism or consistency you want to see out of a first-round prospect, much less a top-10 prospect.

First of all, his athleticism is highly overrated. He has average agility and no burst off the snap. His first step is nothing to speak highly of.

Second, his only pass-rush move is the spin. He doesn't have a rip move, a swim move or an inside move.

Third, he'll make one impressive play and then he will go invisible for the next couple of series. Dunlap is very soft and not physical in the phone booth against an opposing lineman.

And fourth, his body language really bothers me at times. He will just look uninterested. In the fourth quarter with 6:40 left, he was double-teamed, didn't put up any fight, then made a half-effort jump up to deflect the football. It was a pathetic sight to see from a supposed top-10 draft pick.

Dunlap is a big body. He is 6-6, 280, but it isn't the size of the dog; it's the size of the fight in the dog. It doesn't matter how big Dunlap is because he doesn't play that big when you watch the tape.

 

[Nonentity]

I recognise that one, I've mentioned it a few times before.


KontradictioN is a Gators fan and is happy with his work ethic

 

[BradyManny]

I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just saying that I think that the money will be there if the team wants to be aggressive in FA.

Awesome breakdown Mayo - and I agree completely with the conclusion.

And, frankly, I think the team shouldn't just want to be aggressive in FA - I think it has no choice in the matter. If we just re-sign our guys, that won't be good enough this year. The team had deficiencies that are better addressed via free agency (team leadership, immediate impact players at multiple roster spots). This team really isn't far off from the 4 teams playing this Sunday in terms of talent, but I think if it only takes care of it guys and just adds via the draft, I don't think next season ends any differently.

 

[mayoclinic]

I notice you've been strongly advocating Carlos Dunlap as of late. I was doing some reading today and came across this scouting report on Dunlap. How does it jibe with what you watched on Saturdays last fall? I sort of agree with him, but I'm sure you've watched him play double that I have. Is the scout way off (possible -- he has an internet site, not an NFL job)? If not, it seems a big risk to draft this guy in the first round.

However, I'm done with Dunlap as a prospect. We are nine games into the season and I just haven't seen the upside or consistency to give Dunlap a second-round grade. I would draft Dunlap late in the second round because this is a weak draft class, but I think he is the most overrated defensive player in the country.

When I put on the tape of Vanderbilt-Florida this week, I just don't see the production, athleticism or consistency you want to see out of a first-round prospect, much less a top-10 prospect.

First of all, his athleticism is highly overrated. He has average agility and no burst off the snap. His first step is nothing to speak highly of.

Second, his only pass-rush move is the spin. He doesn't have a rip move, a swim move or an inside move.

Third, he'll make one impressive play and then he will go invisible for the next couple of series. Dunlap is very soft and not physical in the phone booth against an opposing lineman.

And fourth, his body language really bothers me at times. He will just look uninterested. In the fourth quarter with 6:40 left, he was double-teamed, didn't put up any fight, then made a half-effort jump up to deflect the football. It was a pathetic sight to see from a supposed top-10 draft pick.

Dunlap is a big body. He is 6-6, 280, but it isn't the size of the dog; it's the size of the fight in the dog. It doesn't matter how big Dunlap is because he doesn't play that big when you watch the tape.

Interestingly, Matt Maguire (whose "scouting report" you reference") currently has Dunlap going #21 to Cincinnati in today's mock:

WalterFootball.com: 2010 NFL Mock Draft by Matt McGuire

Maguire makes some valid points. Dunlap has at times been inconsistent, and also at times disappeared in games. Those things, plus his DUI, are enough to drop him out of the top 15 IMHO. However, I think Maguire is a bit severe in his analysis. (Maguire, by the way, raves about Jason Pierre-Paul, who he calls the "anti-Carlos Dunlap". But I think JPP is every bit as risky as Dunlap, and much more raw. He also doesn't seem to have figured out how to coordinate his very long body well yet.)

First, I think Dunlap is more like 6'6" 270# than the 290# he is often listed as. He doesn't have the body of a 5-technique guy, and his strength is not doing the blue collar grunt work required of that. But he has phenomenal agility, lateral mobility, speed and burst for his size. I think his burst is just fine, and to say that he has "average agility" is ridiculous. I strongly disagree with Maguire on those points. Dunlap has the strength to overpower and the speed to run by linemen, he is disruptive in the passing lanes, he is more than strong enough to set the edge, and he shows terrific effort running down ball carriers. There just aren't that many 6'6" 270# guys with his kind of speed and effort. BB is always going on about the "unique" challenges presented by Julius Peppers (also known to disappear for long stretches and to be inconsistent) and Mario Williams. The opportunity to get someone with Dunlap's size/speed/agility in the early 20's would be too good to pass up, IMHO.

Second, Dunlap seems to be a genuinely good kid. He may not have the greatest motor in the world, but the film I've seen he is always running all over the field chasing down ball carriers. The DUI is the only black mark on his record, and he was reportedly devastated about being suspended for the SEC championship game.

Third, I think Dunlap is the kind of kid who needs to be challenged and who thrives on it. He may indeed get "bored" and disappear at times, but he seems to play his best in the big games. He was the MVP of the 2009 BCS Championship Game against Oklahoma, and he dominated in the 2010 Sugar Bowl. I think his absence in the SEC championship game really hurt Florida, and showed what a difference maker he is.

If Dunlap runs well at the combine and shows the kind of agility that I think he has, and if Urban Meyer "clears" him, then I think he's too good a talent to pass up. Do I think Greg Romeus has a better motor? Yes, and if Romeus had declared I would have been torn between them (I think Dunlap is more athletic with a higher upside). But I think Dunlap will be a much better pro than he was in college, in the right system and with the right motivation.

Everyone wants a sure thing. There are no sure things. Before the draft, everyone is advocating "value" and getting solid, consistent performers. Afterwards, everyone moans about getting "red chip" performers and missing out on "playmakers". Sure, there's risk involved with Dunlap, as there is with most of my favorite picks who could slip to 22 (Dan Williams, Brian Bulaga and CJ Spiller, to name a few). But the upside is enormous. If the kid checks out, I'd take the chance.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Kaczur didn't play up to his contract Mayo? Springs didn't either? You're usually fair as an evaluator, this time whichever diet you're on seems to be lacking some minerals or something. You have an argument for Morris and Taylor only because they were injured and command significant salaries - do you intend to make the same claim for Welker next offseason?

 

[SanAngeloState]

Doug Worthington 6'6' 290 Ohio State or Vince Oghobasse would be good mid round 3-4 DEs.

Worthington has looked good at the Shrine bowl practices.

 

[mayoclinic]

Kaczur didn't play up to his contract Mayo? Springs didn't either? You're usually fair as an evaluator, this time whichever diet you're on seems to be lacking some minerals or something. You have an argument for Morris and Taylor only because they were injured and command significant salaries - do you intend to make the same claim for Welker next offseason?

First, I have no problem pleading guilty to mental derangement. Second, I said in my earlier post that I wasn't necessarily advocating trading/cutting any of these 4 guys.

But I do think that the Pats are going to take a hard look at every single player on their roster and decided where to trim some fat. And if they are going to be aggressive in FA, trimming some fat might help.

As for singling out those 4 guys, I did so for the following reason:

1. Springs is due to make $3.3M, almost twice as much as any other signed member of the secondary ($1.74M for Brandon Merieweather). He'll be 35 this year, one of the oldest CBs in the league, less than a year younger than Ty Law for crissakes. He was signed to be a potential starting CB, and he really hasn't taken on that role. Assuming we re-sign Bodden (which I would consider a priority well above keeping Springs on the roster) we'll have Bodden, Butler, Wheatley and Wilhite. Kyle Arrington has proved himself a valuable STer, and it's not clear that we can keep him unless as a 5th CB, or that we have room for 6 CBs. So I could certainly consider the possibility that the Pats keep Arrington over Springs for his superior ST skills and to cut some cost. I could equally well envision them keeping Springs.

2. Kaczur is due to make over $3.5M. That's a lot for a backup OT, and there doesn't seem to be much difference between Kaczur and Mark LeVoir, who makes all of $740K. I admit this is unlikely, since (1) the FO and coaching staff seem to like Kaczur, (2) I don't see us getting much in return, and (3) he has value as a swing tackle. But it's still a possibility.

3. "Fresh legs" has been one of the themes regarding our RB corps. Mike Reiss addressed it at length in his latest mailbag. Morris and Taylor are both geriatric for RBs (33 for Morris, 34 for Taylor this year), they make $4M between them, they were both injured for most of the season (and Taylor is injury-prone), and they produced less than 600 yards rushing. Many people thought their return would give a big boost to our running game, and it really didn't happen. Arguably our best running was by Maroney when Morris and Taylor were both out. I could see keeping one or both, but I could equally well see cutting one or both and bringing in someone younger with less tread on their tires.

Again, I'm not advocating anything at this point. But I think the FO will take a hard look at cost/value, and I think that these 4 guys will get some attention on account of their cap hit relative to playing time, and age issues for Springs, Taylor and Morris.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think that as a DE, Wright is respectable. But he's not a difference maker. Warren on the other side is quite solid, particularly against the run, but he won't be pressuring the QB and collapsing the pocket the way a Richard Seymour did, all the while commanding double teams.

The lack of talent at OLB has been an issue the past 2 seasons. If you can't generate pressure from your front 3, then the linebackers need to pick up the slack. That hasn't happened. So I'm only taking a 3-4 DE if he can generate pressure for me, if he's special enough to command double teams. Otherwise I restock the talent at OLB/ILB and get some playmakers/passrushers from those positions.

I think one thing the Pats could do is move Wilfork out to DE and use a stop-gap veteran NT from free agency. Then next year when they have the Raider's early 2011 1st round pick, go after a true DE stud at that time. Think about it, Seymour played out of position for a while at NT because they needed him to. He did the job pretty well for a year or two until big fat guys like Washington and later Wilfork were brought in to play NT. Why can't Wilfork do the reverse and play the outside in 2010, then shift back inside at 2011 once they have a stud DE to play there?

 

[mayoclinic]

I think that as a DE, Wright is respectable. But he's not a difference maker. Warren on the other side is quite solid, particularly against the run, but he won't be pressuring the QB and collapsing the pocket the way a Richard Seymour did, all the while commanding double teams.

The lack of talent at OLB has been an issue the past 2 seasons. If you can't generate pressure from your front 3, then the linebackers need to pick up the slack. That hasn't happened. So I'm only taking a 3-4 DE if he can generate pressure for me, if he's special enough to command double teams. Otherwise I restock the talent at OLB/ILB and get some playmakers/passrushers from those positions.

I like your reasoning. I don't see either Jared Odrick or Arthur Jones generating much pressure. Corey Wootten seems like a better option if you want a 3-4 DE who can penetrate and generate pressure.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

First, I have no problem pleading guilty to mental derangement. Second, I said in my earlier post that I wasn't necessarily advocating trading/cutting any of these 4 guys.

But I do think that the Pats are going to take a hard look at every single player on their roster and decided where to trim some fat. And if they are going to be aggressive in FA, trimming some fat might help.

As for singling out those 4 guys, I did so for the following reason:

1. Springs ... was signed to be a potential starting CB. Please point me to the Belichick or Caserio quote where this was stated.

2. Kaczur is due to make over $3.5M. That's a lot for a backup OT... Backup? You've seen the depth chart for 2010 then?

3. "Fresh legs" ... We'll see.

Again, I'm not advocating anything at this point. But I think the FO will take a hard look at cost/value, and I think that these 4 guys will get some attention on account of their cap hit relative to playing time, and age issues for Springs, Taylor and Morris.

I expect all the players will get looked at.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, all players will get looked at, but I see no reason to undo the depth Belichick created in 2009 and create roster holes at the same time. How are we possibly better off replacing Kaczur, Springs, Taylor and Morris?

Personally, I think that it will be more difficult to fill holes in free agency this year than last, which is why Belichick spent so much effort assuring us of depth by extending folks before and during the 2009 season.

I expect all the players will get looked at.