Biggest need 3-4 END?

[PatsCanDoIt]

Lack of a pass rush is the most glaring weakness of the 2009 team.

Unless a studly DL/DE falls in their lap at #22, I think a pass rushing OLB will be at the top of the priority list. They lost too many LB's too fast with both Bruschi and Vrable ...and now A.Thomas becoming all but invisable.

Although pass rusher is a weakness, it is also very bust prone.

The "Goodbye, Ladies" Draft Report: Why You Should Almost Never Draft a Tight End in the First Round

What follows is a list of football positions and the percentage of the players drafted between 1990 and 2008 at that position who have made at least one pro bowl:

POSITION_________________% THAT MADE PRO BOWL
Centers_____________________42.9
Guards______________________41.2
Running Backs________________41
Linebackers__________________38.3
Defensive Tackles_____________37.3
Quarterbacks_________________32.6
Offensive Tackles_____________30.8
Defensive Backs______________28.7
Wide Receivers_______________26.9
Tight Ends___________________26.1
Defensive Ends_______________25.3


This is a pretty rough way to measure success, but it is effective. The position that yielded the second-lowest number of pro bowlers on a per pick basis were tight ends, with only stars at the defensive end position being rarer. Although there were some more tight ends drafted in the 80's who made some pro bowls, even if we expand the inquiry to include players drafted from 1980 to 2008, tight ends are still the group that yields the second-smallest number of pro bowlers on a per pick basis.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Although pass rusher is a weakness, it is also very bust prone.

The "Goodbye, Ladies" Draft Report: Why You Should Almost Never Draft a Tight End in the First Round

What I read from those stats is DE and TE are either trench warriors who aren't noticed playing on the edge of the action, or boom/bust after making it to the NFL.

Ben Graham is not a Pro-Bowler, but any of us who appreciate his play as a blocker would want him on the team. Ben Watson struggled as a blocker initially, and he's more remembered for his drops, but he turned into a good pick because his blocking has improved every season and with his hustle on Special Teams and impact on defensive coverage schemes he helped in less tangible ways for fans to track. Yeh, pizza paddles is too apt for some of his games, but the man earned his keep despite hands only slightly better than mine.

 

[mayoclinic]

What I read from those stats is DE and TE are either trench warriors who aren't noticed playing on the edge of the action, or boom/bust after making it to the NFL.

Ben Graham is not a Pro-Bowler, but any of us who appreciate his play as a blocker would want him on the team. Ben Watson struggled as a blocker initially, and he's more remembered for his drops, but he turned into a good pick because his blocking has improved every season and with his hustle on Special Teams and impact on defensive coverage schemes he helped in less tangible ways for fans to track. Yeh, pizza paddles is too apt for some of his games, but the man earned his keep despite hands only slightly better than mine.

One of those 1st round DE's who never made the pro bowl is Ty Warren, who has been quite respectable for us. But I guess he must fall into the "bust" group, since he's never made a pro bowl.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

One of those 1st round DE's who never made the pro bowl is Ty Warren, who has been quite respectable for us. But I guess he must fall into the "bust" group, since he's never made a pro bowl.

"Bust" from your POV, mine, or the generic fan's?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

One of those 1st round DE's who never made the pro bowl is Ty Warren, who has been quite respectable for us. But I guess he must fall into the "bust" group, since he's never made a pro bowl.

Doesn't Warren seem to be a modern version of Anthony Pleasant, the silent lunch pail warrior that quietly goes about his business and gets the dirty work done?

Funny how our defense splashed into the toilet when Warren's name started showing up on the injury report.

After resolving the Wilfork situation, I still think solving the DE spot opposite Warren is the next biggest domino that has to be addressed.

 

[mayoclinic]

"Bust" from your POV, mine, or the generic fan's?

From the article's point of view, since they used pro bowls to define a "successful" pick. Certainly not from mine.

 

[MaineMan]

Although pass rusher is a weakness, it is also very bust prone.

Meh. I'm less inclined to accept a player's/a position's Pro Bowl count as a valid measure of NFL success. I certainly can't accept a lack of Pro Bowls alone as indicating a "bust". First, Pro Bowl voting is a popularity contest. Second, voters tend to go for guys with gaudy stats and some positions, even when played to near perfection, just don't generate them.

A 3-4 DE who doesn't get 50+ tackles or 8+ sacks won't be considered by the typical Pro Bowl voter even if he never fails to set the edge against the run, thus making it possible for a teammate to get the gaudy stats. Not that many DEs are drafted as pass-rushers, which is where the Pro Bowl votes are. A TE who catches 60 passes and 5+ TDs on 85 balls thrown his way, but who also gives up 6 sacks and can't run-block to save his life, will always get the vote over a guy who catches 19 of 20 balls, all for first downs, never gives up a sack or pressure and who consistently clears the way for 10+ yard gains on screens. Not many TEs are drafted to be Dallas Clark or Jason Witten.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

It is not about "pro bowls equal success". It's a position to position comparison. I think it's reasonable for first round picks to make the pro bowl if they are any good. 3-4DE position kinda screws it up a bit. Maybe if the NFL kept track of snaps as a stat it would be easier. My reply was about passrushers, not 3-4end like Ty Warren.

I think pro bowls is a crude measure of success, but that doesn't change the fact that, according to the link, more picks are used on DE per probowler than any other position. I would like a way to make a better comparison but I don't have one yet.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

Meh. I'm less inclined to accept a player's/a position's Pro Bowl count as a valid measure of NFL success. I certainly can't accept a lack of Pro Bowls alone as indicating a "bust". First, Pro Bowl voting is a popularity contest. Second, voters tend to go for guys with gaudy stats and some positions, even when played to near perfection, just don't generate them.

A 3-4 DE who doesn't get 50+ tackles or 8+ sacks won't be considered by the typical Pro Bowl voter even if he never fails to set the edge against the run, thus making it possible for a teammate to get the gaudy stats. Not that many DEs are drafted as pass-rushers, which is where the Pro Bowl votes are. A TE who catches 60 passes and 5+ TDs on 85 balls thrown his way, but who also gives up 6 sacks and can't run-block to save his life, will always get the vote over a guy who catches 19 of 20 balls, all for first downs, never gives up a sack or pressure and who consistently clears the way for 10+ yard gains on screens. Not many TEs are drafted to be Dallas Clark or Jason Witten.

First round TE are drafted to catch balls and first round ends/rush linebackers are drafted to get sacks. Far and away first rounders are drafted specifically to do the things that get them to the pro bowl.