Rivers gets new contract... implications for re-signing Brady

[Synovia]

No other player on the field has remotely the responsibility or the potential for failure that the QB has during a game. C'mon Synovia, you know that!

Of course I do, but if the QB touches the ball 50 times a game, theres 75 plays where he doesn't. Are those plays meaningless?

 

[mgcolby]

You should tell that to Tom Brady, who threw 8 Td and 6 Int against his divison in 2006.


Oak, SD, KC were ranked 31, 28, and 19, btw. Still bad, but not all that much worse than the 27, 20, and 12 that Brady faced in '06, especially considering that NE's defense was ranked 7th that year.

wow way to ignore everything that flies in the face of your premise and coming back with this crap.

How about we stick to stats that are equal. You know, like the same year against the same exact competition. Total scoring yes, I went by total defense nothing changes by that. But what the hell does the 2008 AFC West have to do with the 2006 AFC East? Other than your obsession to compare his stats with Tom Brady?

How about you put away that DVOA crap and look at the real numbers. Look at what Rivers did with an equivalent defense, a worse running game and overall less offensive talent - especially in the WR corps.

Rivers
34 TD's 11 INT's

Cutler
25 TD's 18 INT's

When it mattered for the division and the right to go to the playoffs?

Rivers
2 TD's 0 INT's

Cutler
1 TD 2 INT's

Just to humor me what was his DVOA for that game vs Rivers?

 

[Synovia]

Yawn! DVOA isn't yards and TDs. Epic failure on your part, but keep on pulling out the DVOAs for every argument because that is all you have.

DVOA is a measure of how good a player is at getting first downs. Last time I checked, first downs are how you move the ball and keep drives alive. DVOA directly correlates to winning. Passing yards has a negative correlation to winning, IE, in most cases, the more passing yards a quarterback has, the more likely it is that hes losing.

I wouldn't expect you to understand what a negative correlation is though.

Well, you are the expert on ignorant. Go look up Jay Cutler and his history and there is plenty evidence of a lack of maturity (all you have to do is look how he shot his way out of town) and lack of preparation.

Are you sure that shooting his way out of town was a bad thing? The bears have a better defense and a better running game than the Broncos. Hes probably in a better situation at this point.

Did Asante Samuel show a lack of maturity and preparation when he shot his way out of town? How about Richard Seymour when he held out?

Maybe that is why Cutler was so average in 2007. He should be considered elite because his average numbers would have been great if he had a defense.

Cutler wasn't average in 2007. He was 20% above average, as I've pointed out, about 15 times. you clearly have no idea what average QB play is.


And yes, I'm a pats fan, I'm just not a homer like you are. I don't have to feel that every player on our roster is the bestest ever to sleep at night.

 

[Synovia]

How about you put away that DVOA crap and look at the real numbers. ?

Because DVOA correlates much more closely to winning football games than the "real numbers" you're posting.


And we're talking about winning football games, aren't we?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Of course I do, but if the QB touches the ball 50 times a game, theres 75 plays where he doesn't. Are those plays meaningless?

Of course not. The point it the total % of plays that are impacted by the Qbs decisions. Some make great decisions. Some dont. I think thats the point the other poster was trying to make.

 

[Synovia]

How about you put away that DVOA crap and look at the real numbers. Look at what Rivers did with an equivalent defense, a worse running game and overall less offensive talent - especially in the WR corps.

What in the hell?


2008
SD Defense: 8.3%, 20th in the league
DEN Defense: 20.4% 31st in the league

They most certainly did not have equivalent defenses.

And I don't see how Brandon Marshall + a bunch of scrubs is better than Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers, Antonio Gates and Tomlinson/Sproles.




You do realize, that its easier to pass against a bad defense, right?

 

[Synovia]

Of course not. The point it the total % of plays that are impacted by the Qbs decisions. Some make great decisions. Some dont. I think thats the point the other poster was trying to make.

And I fully agree with your point, but his claim was that QB play had a bigger effect on the game than Special teams and defense combined, which is absurd.


if that was actually the case, there wouldn't be a single team in the NFL that spent anything more than min-sal on defensive players.

 

[mgcolby]

You sure about that? You mind showing me some statistical correlations? You willing to show those same correlations with defense and WR and Oline metrics filtered out?

Is that a joke?

Do you not get the correlation between bad QB play and bad Defensive statistics? It goes both ways. Ask the 2006 Oakland Raiders. They had the 3rd best defense in terms of yards, yet they were 16th in total scoring. Do you know why? Because their offense sucked! They had a -23 turnover ratio. Short fields will make even the best defenses crack.

Your argument is weak and you are trying to use a single metric to prove his greatness, while blaming his shortcomings on his defense.

Yet, when presented with another QB in his division in the same exact circumstance, his numbers are not even close.

I'll take TD to INT any day over DVOA at the QB position.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Differences in the Market. Different celebrity. .

Thats part of it sure. But a big part of it is because the guy wins. Wheather he gets the credit or not is irrelevent.

So, when he threw a pick in the 4th quarter, down, he was putting them in a position to win?.

Of course not. Charger D was all over his case and the Pats did not have the superior talent to deal with it. Another part was I believe, Brady tried to maybe do a bit too much that game. He still put up 11 unanswered 4th qtr points when he had to. No denying that.

The differences? Good defense.

Of couse you must have a good defense to win a SB. But if your Qb puts your D in crappy field positon, you will lose.

 

[Rob0729]

DVOA is a measure of how good a player is at getting first downs. Last time I checked, first downs are how you move the ball and keep drives alive. DVOA directly correlates to winning. Passing yards has a negative correlation to winning, IE, in most cases, the more passing yards a quarterback has, the more likely it is that hes losing.

I wouldn't expect you to understand what a negative correlation is though.

If a QB does one drive down the field and completes every one of his passes and passes for a TD, he will have a higher DVOA than a QB who passes for 5,000 yards and 40 TDs. Who had the better year.

DVOA is an efficiency stat. You are not an elite QB because you are efficient. You are an elite QB because you either are a winner and win big games for your team or you put up stats that stand off the page. DVOA is not one of those stats.

Are you sure that shooting his way out of town was a bad thing? The bears have a better defense and a better running game than the Broncos. Hes probably in a better situation at this point.

Did Asante Samuel show a lack of maturity and preparation when he shot his way out of town? How about Richard Seymour when he held out?

Thank you! Oh, thank you for proving my point by bringing up Samuel and Seymour. They showed how you can hold out with maturity. They didn't run to the press and claim that Belichick lied to them or hurt their feelings. Cutler cried to the press about hurt feels and betrayal.

Whether he is in a better situation or not is irrelevant. Many players in this league could be in better situations if they were traded, most of them have the maturity not to cry to the press and air their dirty laundry.

Cutler wasn't average in 2007. He was 20% above average, as I've pointed out, about 15 times. you clearly have no idea what average QB play is.

LOL! He was efficient, but average. Stop using the DVOA like you know what it means.

And yes, I'm a pats fan, I'm just not a homer like you are. I don't have to feel that every player on our roster is the bestest ever to sleep at night.

No you are not a homer. Yes, you are a "Pats fan" who only bashes the team and pumps up everyone else but the Pats and seem to pop up when the Pats have adversity and root for the adverisity and be the "I told you so". As for me being a homer, go back and read my posts over time. I am very critical of players on this roster.

No one is buying your act and people have called you out as being a fake fan plenty of times.

 

[mgcolby]

DVOA is a measure of how good a player is at getting first downs. Last time I checked, first downs are how you move the ball and keep drives alive. DVOA directly correlates to winning. Passing yards has a negative correlation to winning, IE, in most cases, the more passing yards a quarterback has, the more likely it is that hes losing.

I wouldn't expect you to understand what a negative correlation is though.

You are laughable. WTF good are first downs if you throw a pick on the next play?

How about we look at a stat that truly wins football games Yards Per Point. You take the average yards gained and divide it by average points scored. This is how it broke down between the Chargers and Broncos:

Broncos: 17.1 YPP
Chargers: 12.7 YPP

We can take the same concept and apply it to Passing yards per TD.

Cutler: 178.8 YPT
Rivers: 113.5 YPT

And for the fun of it how about INT's

Cutler: 248.3 YPI
Rivers: 350.7 YPI

None of them are close. Efficiency wins football games first downs are part of that but it would idiotic to see that as the catch all be all! Cutler is anything but efficient.

Any Pats fan that has watched the Patriots defense and understood their philosophy during the BB era would understand this simple concept.

 

[Synovia]

Of couse you must have a good defense to win a SB. But if your Qb puts your D in crappy field positon, you will lose.

And, if you're D puts your QB in a crappy position, you'll lose too. IE, 2005, and 2006.

 

[Synovia]

You are laughable. WTF good are first downs if you throw a pick on the next play?

You do realize that DVOA has a severe negative reaction to picks, right?


No, you don't, because you're ignorant.

 

[mgcolby]

What in the hell?


2008
SD Defense: 8.3%, 20th in the league
DEN Defense: 20.4% 31st in the league

They most certainly did not have equivalent defenses.

And I don't see how Brandon Marshall + a bunch of scrubs is better than Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers, Antonio Gates and Tomlinson/Sproles.




You do realize, that its easier to pass against a bad defense, right?

I said for that game not the season!

 

[Synovia]

If a QB does one drive down the field and completes every one of his passes and passes for a TD, he will have a higher DVOA than a QB who passes for 5,000 yards and 40 TDs. Who had the better year.

Do you want me to start using DYAR then? I'm of the opinion that efficiency is more important than counting stats, especially when you're looking at two starters.

Who is better, the guy who throws 10 incompletions, then a dumpoff to a RB that goes for a TD, or a guy who throws 10 straight completions and the RB runs it in on the last play? One has 0TD, the other has 1TD.

DVOA is an efficiency stat. You are not an elite QB because you are efficient. You are an elite QB because you either are a winner and win big games for your team or you put up stats that stand off the page. DVOA is not one of those stats.

No, but DYAR is, and Cutler was, again,

Thank you! Oh, thank you for proving my point by bringing up Samuel and Seymour. They showed how you can hold out with maturity. They didn't run to the press and claim that Belichick lied to them or hurt their feelings. Cutler cried to the press about hurt feels and betrayal.

Samuel didn't run to the Press? We must be talking about different Press.

LOL! He was efficient, but average. Stop using the DVOA like you know what it means.

Again, exactly what was he average in. You've yet to give one example of something that he was near the league average in.

No you are not a homer. Yes, you are a "Pats fan" who only bashes the team

quote something where I'm bashing the team. Just once, actually back up one of your accusations. ONCE.

Seriously. Point out one spot where I bashed the patriots.

 

[mgcolby]

And I fully agree with your point, but his claim was that QB play had a bigger effect on the game than Special teams and defense combined, which is absurd.


if that was actually the case, there wouldn't be a single team in the NFL that spent anything more than min-sal on defensive players.

That was never my point try reading it again! The QB position is the most important on the field and correlates to wins and losses more than any other position on the field.

You have this absurb notion that team defense affects QB play, but QB play doesn't affect team defense. And that yards are end all be all, and some how first downs equal wins.

 

[Synovia]

That was never my point try reading it again! The QB position is the most important on the field and correlates to wins and losses more than any other position on the field.

And I never claimed otherwise. You're putting up a strawman.

You have this absurb notion that team defense affects QB play, but QB play doesn't affect team defense.

No, I don't. They both effect each other. When the offense puts up lots of points, it makes it easy on the defense and vice versa.

And that yards are end all be all, and some how first downs equal wins.

Again, no I don't. Yards are probably the most irrelevant stat in football. As to first downs, yeah, first down/drive efficiency correlates extremely well to wins.

 

[RobertWeathers]

And, if you're D puts your QB in a crappy position, you'll lose too. IE, 2005, and 2006.

What was 05 and 06? Pats playoff games? Broncos?

 

[Rob0729]

You do realize that DVOA has a severe negative reaction to picks, right?


No, you don't, because you're ignorant.

But the DVOA doesn't differentiate whether you throw 100 passes in a season or 500. It is a formula that a website came up with that is not recognized by anyone in the NFL. Like most formulas, it isn't perfect and shouldn't be used in a vacuum to determine the quality of a player or a team.

To be elite, you need to stand out. Cutler didn't stand out in 2007 other than in individual handful of games. He showed some promise, but he was far from elite.

Besides, he is a two and a quarter year starter. No two and a quarter year starter should be considered an elite QB no matter how well he played. Brady didn't. Neither did Peyton. Calling a guy who has started 37 games in his career elite is silly.

 

[Synovia]

But the DVOA doesn't differentiate whether you throw 100 passes in a season or 500.

Correct, but seeing how all the players we're talking about have thrown 500+ passes the last couple of years, its pretty irrelevant.

It is a formula that a website came up with that is not recognized by anyone in the NFL. Like most formulas, it isn't perfect and shouldn't be used in a vacuum to determine the quality of a player or a team.

its not recognized by anyone in the NFL? Are you ****ting me? For real? Are you that ignorant? Are you really a patriots fan? The patriots are the most statistically oriented team in football.

To be elite, you need to stand out. Cutler didn't stand out in 2007 other than in individual handful of games. He showed some promise, but he was far from elite.

According to who? you? Are you an NFL scout now?

Besides, he is a two and a quarter year starter. No two and a quarter year starter should be considered an elite QB no matter how well he played. Brady didn't. Neither did Peyton. Calling a guy who has started 37 games in his career elite is silly.

Kurt Warner won the MVP his first year as a starter.