Judging records based on previous seasons is rather dumb. Injuries, players, schemes, etc. change a lot.
Texans went from 8-8 (I believe) in 2010 and could have been 13-3 or 14-2 in 2011 if they hadn't lost their top 2 QB's and left their playoff hopes in the hands of a late round rookie. Their defense went from nearly dead last to nearly first.
49ers went from drafting in the top 10 to tying the 2nd best record in the NFL and being a backup kick returner fumbling 3 times (once was overturned due to a penalty) from playing in the Super Bowl.
Denver drafted 2nd overall and made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs with an option QB.
We have the easiest schedule based on last seasons records. Our division, outside of the Jets, has only improved, in my opinion. Dolphins have a top notch D and Fitzpatrick played some very good football before getting hurt (rumors have placed his injury right around the time he signed his contract). We still have to face each divisions #1 and the Titans won't be a pushover like in 09 IMO. Peyton Manning won't go away either.
We have some very tough games in SF, Balt, and Denver. You can never count out divisional opponents, not even the Bills anymore, and the Seahawks have a very legitimate defense and a QB who tore us up just 2 seasons ago and would have won had he remembered that the 4th quarters is the final quarter.
I personally think we'll finish with 12 or more wins, but 10-6 isn't too far fetched all things considered.