lillloyd
Third String But Playing on Special Teams
- Joined
- Apr 12, 2010
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- 776
Greetings all and Happy Holidays! Hope you’re all staying out of the cold – it’s toasty here in LA (but maybe that’s because most of the state is on fire??)
Here is my annual Steelers ‘State of the Union’. Instead of a standard offense/defense breakdown, I thought I’d switch it up a bit and look at some common ‘takes’ on the game and the Steelers, and why I agree or disagree with them.
As always, I’m hoping for an X’s and O’s discussion…I won’t take offense if there’s trash talk (it *is* a Pats Fanatics board!) but I’m very unlikely to partake myself, as that’s not really my thing.
Overview
Counting the playoffs last year, the Steelers are 20-3 over their past 23 games. Their sparkling 11-2 record leads the AFC; they have an explosive offense that includes an All-World wideout, a potential HoF QB, and an All-Pro RB; and they have a defense that sports a bevy of high-round picks and is enjoying its best statistical season in many years. To top it off, they play *at home* in a game that could secure HFA throughout the playoffs by the end of week 14.
So…life is good in Steeltown, right?
Well, kinda.
The Steelers are also maddeningly inconsistent, often exhibiting dominance and ineptitude within the confines of a single game. They are loaded with young, talented players who will occasionally flash, but often do not play to the level of their draft pedigree. Like a classic streak shooter in basketball, if you allow them to get going, they will look unstoppable…but they lack the underlying fundamentals and maturity to be reliably excellent. For all of its success, Pittsburgh is one of the most enigmatic and highly-scrutinized teams in football. And deservedly so.
Take 1: “Pittsburgh’s defense will struggle to stop New England’s backs and TEs, and will have trouble getting off the field.”
Verdict – overwhelmingly true.
From a pure football standpoint, the Shazier injury is devastating on several fronts. Without Shazier’s sideline-to-sideline speed, Pittsburgh becomes extremely vulnerable to perimeter runs. Shazier is also a premier coverage linebacker – there is no ILB left on the roster with his range, ability to get depth, or playmaking ability. And to boot, he’s the primary playcaller for the defense.
Due to an injury to Shazier’s primary backup, Pittsburgh is left with a rotation of a converted OLB (Arthur Moats), a player just signed off the street (Sean Spence), and a special teams player (LJ Fort); the dropoff between Shazier and these players is massive. Where Shazier has elite traits, these players possess only borderline NFL qualities.
In short, it’s hard to imagine Pitt not getting absolutely *worked* in the middle of the field with Burkhead, Lewis, and White. Lewis in particular should be able to turn stretch plays into long runs. Pitt may counter with more dime, and they may move Sean Davis, an athletic safety with some cover ability, closer to the LoS. But this is all just lipstick on a pig stuff.
The Pats have a titanic advantage here, and without significant pressure up front Pittsburgh may have consistent problems getting off on 3rd down.
Take 2: “New England will carve up Pittsburgh zone coverage scheme like they always do.”
Verdict – true, but with some caveats.
Pitt overhauled their CB depth chart in the offseason, and one reason was a stated desire to be able to mix man-to-man into their coverages more often. Pitt is roundly criticized for not playing more press coverage against the Pats, but the reality is, they have lacked the personnel to play man – lost in last year’s playoff loss was the fact that Brady shredded Pitt’s brief attempts at man coverage as readily as he did their zone coverages.
So zone cover guys like Ross ****rell and William Gay were traded or demoted, and more man-ready corners like Joe Haden and 3rd round draft pick Cam Sutton were added to a group that already included 2016 first rounder Artie Burns (also man-capable).
That all said, Haden may not play, and Sutton is probably too green to hold up over 60 minutes (having been injured himself most of the year). Burns is talented but wildly inconsistent (think: Pitt’s version of an early-season Stephon Gilmore).
But Haden has been practicing, and Sutton’s gotten a lot of reps over the past two games… so there is a scenario where Pittsburgh actually mixes in some effective press coverage. They did this with success in Pitt’s 2011 home victory, so it’s not entirely unprecedented. If Pitt can get interior pressure from Heyward and Tuitt (more on that later), and Artie Burns plays like the ‘good’ version of himself, Pitt may be able to at least slow down the NE passing attack.
Of course, that’s an awful lot of ifs.
Take 3: “Ben Roethlisberger is done, or at least on a steep decline.”
Verdict: largely false.
There is no question that Roethlisberger looked shaky in the opening weeks of the season. Jags game aside, he appeared generally tentative and out of sync, and showed uncharacteristic inaccuracy down the field. Bottom line, he simply didn’t pass the eye test, and I admit that I had some doubts myself about whether we might be at the end of the road.
However, over the last couple of months – and in particular, the past four weeks or so – we have been an abrupt about-face from Roethlisberger’s early season performance. Putting the gaudy statistics aside for a moment, Ben now looks poised and confident, and has been delivering the ball on time with exceptional accuracy. (Lost in AB’s statistical bonanza has been the consistently excellent downfield ‘bucket’ throws that Ben has teed up for him).
At a time where Pitt’s defense has stumbled, and the team as a whole has struggled to deal with the aftermath of the Shazier injury, the return to form by Big Ben has been a massive (and somewhat under-the-radar) development. His continued excellent play is Pitt’s best hope for a deep run into the playoffs.
Take 4: “If Jay Cutler and Kenyon Drake can do THAT, Pittsburgh’s offense will destroy the NE defense.”
Verdict: Not so fast…
I’ve struggled to accurately quantify what BB and the rest of New England’s (peerless!) coaching staff mean on any given Sunday. I used to say it was like a HFA advantage (i.e. 3 point swing in betting circles) every game. I later felt it was more like 7 points. I now wonder if it isn’t more like 10 points – or maybe, the equivalent of having an exfra All-Pro on the field at all times.
Regardless, I’ve long since learned that it’s absurd to compare players on a head-to-head basis when BB is involved – he’s like a multiplier that makes every player the best possible version of themselves, playing in the best possible scenarios to succeed.
Certainly, most pro personnel people would prefer to have Pitt’s “triplets” over the likes of Cutler and Drake and Devante Parker, and would Pitt’s offensive line over Miami’s. On paper, it would appear that New England’s depleted front 7 will be overmatched. But I expect NE to have some success taking away Antonio Brown, and I’m not sure Pitt can match Brady score-for-score if they are relying largely on Bell to carry the day.
This is where some of the ‘bit actors’ in Pittsburgh’s offense can play a major role. If players like JuJu and Jesse James can have success moving the chains in the middle of the field, it could have a significant impact, and keep Pitt from having to rely solely on whichever big weapon BB elects to *not* take away.
New England’s offense also is a factor here – if Pitt’s D cannot get off the field, can Roethlisberger continue to be patient and take what’s given, even as he feels the pressure to continue to match NE’s scoring? Big Ben has a gunslinger mentality, and patience is not his best virtue. This game could come apart if Ben starts forcing things down the field.
Take 5: “New England owns Pittsburgh and Brady owns Pitt’s defense. This game will be over before it starts.”
Verdict: Again, not so fast…
If I were betting, I’d bet the Patriots, because they have the biggest matchup advantage in the game. And it’s always foolish to bet against a team with a GOAT coach and QB. So let’s get that out of the way.
Still, this is the best Pittsburgh team in a long while, playing at home. Pittsburgh is both an improved team, and a substantially healthier team, over what it was last January. It will be a super-charged atmosphere, with the Steelers crowd riding an emotional wave, with both the Pats coming to town and the continued aftermath of the Shazier injury. At home, in national bigtime games, Big Ben and Pittsburgh have historically have put on their best performances. The offense has been hot of late, with 133 points over the past 4 games. Warts and inconsistencies aside, Pittsburgh’s *ceiling* may be as high as any team’s in the league, and when they’re on they can be a load for any team to handle.
So while I’ve seen many posters here approaching the game with a yawn and expectations of 3TD+ margins of victory, I don’t expect it to play out that way.
I think there’s an overlooked mismatch in Pittsburgh’s favor that is Pittsburgh’s best hope for turning the game. Pittsburgh’s defensive front – specifically, their defensive linemen (Stephon Tuitt, Cameron Heyward, Javon Hargrave) is the best and deepest group they’ve had in years. Heyward gets lost behind some of the stars that play his position, but he has been truly dominant for large stretches this year. Tuitt is arguably a superior physical talent that has struggled with injuries; but when on the field he has been nearly as dominant as Heyward. It’s a unit that’s exceptionally quick, strong, and deep, and most importantly can provide interior pressure directly into the face of the QB.
Heyward was injured last year, and Tuitt and Hargrave have only recently started to come into their own, so this is not really a group that the Pats’ offensive line has seen at full strength.
I think this is where the game will be won or lost. If Pittsburgh can successfully exploit the absence of Cannon, and if Thuney continues to struggle, I think the game will be a dogfight. If however, Scars makes the adjustments and the Pats’ OL holds up, then Pats nation might get the 40-burger and 3TD margin they’ve been predicting.
Prediction:
As we all well know, games are not won and lost on the gridiron…they are debated endlessly on fan forums like this, and the outcomes are determined based solely on the strength of arguments. (Why they actually still play the games is beyond me lol)
So here’s my argument:
I could go with a purely analytical prediction (and I think you know what that would be, based on the above). But what’s the fun in that??
So, for the 2nd straight year, I’ll go with a prediction that’s more ‘aspirational’ than ‘analytical’. I’ll say that the game plays out in the best possible fashion for the Steelers: the Pats OL struggles to contain the Steelers’ defensive front, which slows down the NE attack just enough; Pittsburgh gets enough production from its complementary players on offense in the middle of the field, which helps open things up for its offensive stars; and Pittsburgh ‘gets going’ early on, and like a streak shooter, rides an emotional wave in front of a frenzied home crowd on its way to victory.
Pitt 31, NE 27
Best of luck Sunday to a great (and INJURY-FREE) game,
lillloyd
Here is my annual Steelers ‘State of the Union’. Instead of a standard offense/defense breakdown, I thought I’d switch it up a bit and look at some common ‘takes’ on the game and the Steelers, and why I agree or disagree with them.
As always, I’m hoping for an X’s and O’s discussion…I won’t take offense if there’s trash talk (it *is* a Pats Fanatics board!) but I’m very unlikely to partake myself, as that’s not really my thing.
Overview
Counting the playoffs last year, the Steelers are 20-3 over their past 23 games. Their sparkling 11-2 record leads the AFC; they have an explosive offense that includes an All-World wideout, a potential HoF QB, and an All-Pro RB; and they have a defense that sports a bevy of high-round picks and is enjoying its best statistical season in many years. To top it off, they play *at home* in a game that could secure HFA throughout the playoffs by the end of week 14.
So…life is good in Steeltown, right?
Well, kinda.
The Steelers are also maddeningly inconsistent, often exhibiting dominance and ineptitude within the confines of a single game. They are loaded with young, talented players who will occasionally flash, but often do not play to the level of their draft pedigree. Like a classic streak shooter in basketball, if you allow them to get going, they will look unstoppable…but they lack the underlying fundamentals and maturity to be reliably excellent. For all of its success, Pittsburgh is one of the most enigmatic and highly-scrutinized teams in football. And deservedly so.
Take 1: “Pittsburgh’s defense will struggle to stop New England’s backs and TEs, and will have trouble getting off the field.”
Verdict – overwhelmingly true.
From a pure football standpoint, the Shazier injury is devastating on several fronts. Without Shazier’s sideline-to-sideline speed, Pittsburgh becomes extremely vulnerable to perimeter runs. Shazier is also a premier coverage linebacker – there is no ILB left on the roster with his range, ability to get depth, or playmaking ability. And to boot, he’s the primary playcaller for the defense.
Due to an injury to Shazier’s primary backup, Pittsburgh is left with a rotation of a converted OLB (Arthur Moats), a player just signed off the street (Sean Spence), and a special teams player (LJ Fort); the dropoff between Shazier and these players is massive. Where Shazier has elite traits, these players possess only borderline NFL qualities.
In short, it’s hard to imagine Pitt not getting absolutely *worked* in the middle of the field with Burkhead, Lewis, and White. Lewis in particular should be able to turn stretch plays into long runs. Pitt may counter with more dime, and they may move Sean Davis, an athletic safety with some cover ability, closer to the LoS. But this is all just lipstick on a pig stuff.
The Pats have a titanic advantage here, and without significant pressure up front Pittsburgh may have consistent problems getting off on 3rd down.
Take 2: “New England will carve up Pittsburgh zone coverage scheme like they always do.”
Verdict – true, but with some caveats.
Pitt overhauled their CB depth chart in the offseason, and one reason was a stated desire to be able to mix man-to-man into their coverages more often. Pitt is roundly criticized for not playing more press coverage against the Pats, but the reality is, they have lacked the personnel to play man – lost in last year’s playoff loss was the fact that Brady shredded Pitt’s brief attempts at man coverage as readily as he did their zone coverages.
So zone cover guys like Ross ****rell and William Gay were traded or demoted, and more man-ready corners like Joe Haden and 3rd round draft pick Cam Sutton were added to a group that already included 2016 first rounder Artie Burns (also man-capable).
That all said, Haden may not play, and Sutton is probably too green to hold up over 60 minutes (having been injured himself most of the year). Burns is talented but wildly inconsistent (think: Pitt’s version of an early-season Stephon Gilmore).
But Haden has been practicing, and Sutton’s gotten a lot of reps over the past two games… so there is a scenario where Pittsburgh actually mixes in some effective press coverage. They did this with success in Pitt’s 2011 home victory, so it’s not entirely unprecedented. If Pitt can get interior pressure from Heyward and Tuitt (more on that later), and Artie Burns plays like the ‘good’ version of himself, Pitt may be able to at least slow down the NE passing attack.
Of course, that’s an awful lot of ifs.
Take 3: “Ben Roethlisberger is done, or at least on a steep decline.”
Verdict: largely false.
There is no question that Roethlisberger looked shaky in the opening weeks of the season. Jags game aside, he appeared generally tentative and out of sync, and showed uncharacteristic inaccuracy down the field. Bottom line, he simply didn’t pass the eye test, and I admit that I had some doubts myself about whether we might be at the end of the road.
However, over the last couple of months – and in particular, the past four weeks or so – we have been an abrupt about-face from Roethlisberger’s early season performance. Putting the gaudy statistics aside for a moment, Ben now looks poised and confident, and has been delivering the ball on time with exceptional accuracy. (Lost in AB’s statistical bonanza has been the consistently excellent downfield ‘bucket’ throws that Ben has teed up for him).
At a time where Pitt’s defense has stumbled, and the team as a whole has struggled to deal with the aftermath of the Shazier injury, the return to form by Big Ben has been a massive (and somewhat under-the-radar) development. His continued excellent play is Pitt’s best hope for a deep run into the playoffs.
Take 4: “If Jay Cutler and Kenyon Drake can do THAT, Pittsburgh’s offense will destroy the NE defense.”
Verdict: Not so fast…
I’ve struggled to accurately quantify what BB and the rest of New England’s (peerless!) coaching staff mean on any given Sunday. I used to say it was like a HFA advantage (i.e. 3 point swing in betting circles) every game. I later felt it was more like 7 points. I now wonder if it isn’t more like 10 points – or maybe, the equivalent of having an exfra All-Pro on the field at all times.
Regardless, I’ve long since learned that it’s absurd to compare players on a head-to-head basis when BB is involved – he’s like a multiplier that makes every player the best possible version of themselves, playing in the best possible scenarios to succeed.
Certainly, most pro personnel people would prefer to have Pitt’s “triplets” over the likes of Cutler and Drake and Devante Parker, and would Pitt’s offensive line over Miami’s. On paper, it would appear that New England’s depleted front 7 will be overmatched. But I expect NE to have some success taking away Antonio Brown, and I’m not sure Pitt can match Brady score-for-score if they are relying largely on Bell to carry the day.
This is where some of the ‘bit actors’ in Pittsburgh’s offense can play a major role. If players like JuJu and Jesse James can have success moving the chains in the middle of the field, it could have a significant impact, and keep Pitt from having to rely solely on whichever big weapon BB elects to *not* take away.
New England’s offense also is a factor here – if Pitt’s D cannot get off the field, can Roethlisberger continue to be patient and take what’s given, even as he feels the pressure to continue to match NE’s scoring? Big Ben has a gunslinger mentality, and patience is not his best virtue. This game could come apart if Ben starts forcing things down the field.
Take 5: “New England owns Pittsburgh and Brady owns Pitt’s defense. This game will be over before it starts.”
Verdict: Again, not so fast…
If I were betting, I’d bet the Patriots, because they have the biggest matchup advantage in the game. And it’s always foolish to bet against a team with a GOAT coach and QB. So let’s get that out of the way.
Still, this is the best Pittsburgh team in a long while, playing at home. Pittsburgh is both an improved team, and a substantially healthier team, over what it was last January. It will be a super-charged atmosphere, with the Steelers crowd riding an emotional wave, with both the Pats coming to town and the continued aftermath of the Shazier injury. At home, in national bigtime games, Big Ben and Pittsburgh have historically have put on their best performances. The offense has been hot of late, with 133 points over the past 4 games. Warts and inconsistencies aside, Pittsburgh’s *ceiling* may be as high as any team’s in the league, and when they’re on they can be a load for any team to handle.
So while I’ve seen many posters here approaching the game with a yawn and expectations of 3TD+ margins of victory, I don’t expect it to play out that way.
I think there’s an overlooked mismatch in Pittsburgh’s favor that is Pittsburgh’s best hope for turning the game. Pittsburgh’s defensive front – specifically, their defensive linemen (Stephon Tuitt, Cameron Heyward, Javon Hargrave) is the best and deepest group they’ve had in years. Heyward gets lost behind some of the stars that play his position, but he has been truly dominant for large stretches this year. Tuitt is arguably a superior physical talent that has struggled with injuries; but when on the field he has been nearly as dominant as Heyward. It’s a unit that’s exceptionally quick, strong, and deep, and most importantly can provide interior pressure directly into the face of the QB.
Heyward was injured last year, and Tuitt and Hargrave have only recently started to come into their own, so this is not really a group that the Pats’ offensive line has seen at full strength.
I think this is where the game will be won or lost. If Pittsburgh can successfully exploit the absence of Cannon, and if Thuney continues to struggle, I think the game will be a dogfight. If however, Scars makes the adjustments and the Pats’ OL holds up, then Pats nation might get the 40-burger and 3TD margin they’ve been predicting.
Prediction:
As we all well know, games are not won and lost on the gridiron…they are debated endlessly on fan forums like this, and the outcomes are determined based solely on the strength of arguments. (Why they actually still play the games is beyond me lol)
So here’s my argument:
I could go with a purely analytical prediction (and I think you know what that would be, based on the above). But what’s the fun in that??
So, for the 2nd straight year, I’ll go with a prediction that’s more ‘aspirational’ than ‘analytical’. I’ll say that the game plays out in the best possible fashion for the Steelers: the Pats OL struggles to contain the Steelers’ defensive front, which slows down the NE attack just enough; Pittsburgh gets enough production from its complementary players on offense in the middle of the field, which helps open things up for its offensive stars; and Pittsburgh ‘gets going’ early on, and like a streak shooter, rides an emotional wave in front of a frenzied home crowd on its way to victory.
Pitt 31, NE 27
Best of luck Sunday to a great (and INJURY-FREE) game,
lillloyd
