You gotta finish strong and head into the playoffs with momentum

[makewayhomer]

this idea is basically BS. look at the last few years:

in 2006, SB champion Colts went 2-3 in December, losing by 27 to the Jacksonville Jaguars and by three to a 6-10 Houston Texans team before narrowly beating a 6-10 Miami Dolphins team to finish the year. They went and won four straight games en route to the Super Bowl.

In 2007, the Giants supposedly picked up momentum when they played the undefeated New England Patriots to an extremely close game, losing by three before starting off their hot streak. That's reasonable, but it was preceded by a 3-3 stretch that saw the team lose to the Minnesota Vikings by 27, the Washington Redskins by 12, and narrowly pull out victories over mediocre teams in the Detroit Lions (six points), Chicago Bears (five points), and Philadelphia Eagles (three points). The idea that the Giants' win over the Patriots had given them momentum didn't come until they actually made it to the Super Bowl, and their "momentum" consisted of one game.

the 2008 Cardinals take the cake, though. After virtually locking up the NFC West with a 7-3 start, Arizona took the rest of the season off. Finishing 2-4, the Cardinals lost to the Giants by eight and the Eagles -- the same team they'd beat in the NFC Championship Game -- by 28. It got worse in December. Playing two playoff-caliber teams, the Cardinals lost by 21 to the Vikings and the Patriots by 40. The idea that they had momentum is absurd; time will not produce a better example of a team limping into the playoffs for decades.

other examples:

The 2007 Redskins won their final four games after burying Sean Taylor, pushing them into the playoffs after a 5-7 start, but got annihilated in Seattle when Todd Collins started throwing interceptions.

Last year's San Diego Chargers went 4-0 in December to sneak into the playoffs, and beat the Colts with a great performance at home in the Wild Card round, but were summarily dispatched in Pittsburgh a week later.

The Atlanta Falcons finished 5-1 last year, winning their final three, and lost to the Cardinals in the Wild Card round.

The Dolphins went 5-0 to end last year, and 9-1 in their last 10 -- and got stomped, 27-9, by the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card round

Bottom line: Teams win in the playoffs because they play well and breaks go their way, the same way they do in the regular season. And if teams really can peak, the right time to peak isn't the end of December. It's the end of January.

credit to Bill Barnwell

 

[RayClay]

You don't have to do anything.

If you're willing to settle for a small sample size you can "prove" anything too.

 

[makewayhomer]

You don't have to do anything.

If you're willing to settle for a small sample size you can "prove" anything too.

why don't you go ahead and "prove" with a large sample that momentum exists

I GUARANTEE I can find a larger sample that says momentum (either in game or between games) is greatly, greatly overrated by the media, general public, and athletes themselves

 

[yopats]

I think there is no doubt that BB is going to play the game and not lay down.. now I do think they will rest injured guys.. i.e Wilfork and Warren etc.. but there will not be a Colts type game plan .. I can guarantee that!

 

[lostjumper]

Well, how about the colts, since you used them in your example. Every year that they rest their starters the last 2-3 games, they haven't made it to the Superbowl. The year they win it? They had to play hard until the end. Momentum matters, because it means you are still playing competitive, meaningful games in December.

 

[Patspsycho]

Brady has already sent out the message that he wants to commit to the last game so I don't see how we don't do that.

 

[makewayhomer]

Well, how about the colts, since you used them in your example. Every year that they rest their starters the last 2-3 games, they haven't made it to the Superbowl. The year they win it? They had to play hard until the end. Momentum matters, because it means you are still playing competitive, meaningful games in December.

the year the Colts won the Super Bowl, these were their December results (they came into December 10-1):

LOSS to the Titans by 3
LOSS to the Jaguars by 27
WIN vs the Bengals by 18
LOSS to Texans by 5
WIN vs Miami by 3

for the month they were 2-3 and were outscored by 14 points. are you saying that this team "had momentum" and "came into the playoffs playing strong"? if so your definition of "momentum" is an awfully flexible one, one that could probably retro fit to any situation!

also, they didn't have to play hard until the end, they were up by at least 2-3 games the entire season vs the Jaguars, who finished 8-8. if there was 1 game where they need to "play strong" it was the Jaguars, where they got killed

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

If they didn't pull Brady out of a game in the 4th quarter with the team up by 28 then what makes ANYONE think there is even the possibility of Hoyer playing at all against the Texans?

Unless Mario Williams destroys the OL forget Brady missing any action.

 

[Joker]

the return of makewaygomer....somewhere Andy Griffith is turning over in his grave

 

[RayClay]

why don't you go ahead and "prove" with a large sample that momentum exists

I GUARANTEE I can find a larger sample that says momentum (either in game or between games) is greatly, greatly overrated by the media, general public, and athletes themselves

Of course, now it's up to me to compile all the statistics and analyze them.

I don't recall making any definite claim, I think that was you.

Eliminate all the Patriots victories first.

If you could evaluate it in a statistically significant way, you would have already.

 

[emoney_33]

There's 2 different ideas being talked about here. One is momentum as it pertains to the results of a football game. For example, do you have to be winning your games and playing great team football in december in order to succeed in the playoffs.

The other and more important aspect IMO is the fighting hard as a team and with intensity going into the playoffs vs. being physically fresh/healthy but potentially rusty going into the playoffs.

Obviously many things go into winning in the playoffs and winning a superbowl, but that doesn't mean other factors can help or hurt your CHANCES. If it were proven that momentum is good to have going into the playoffs, that doesn't mean it's required or necessary.

IMO the Colts hurt themselves more than help themselves by over-resting players. The body is very quick to adapt, too much time on or off is a bad thing.

 

[makewayhomer]

Of course, now it's up to me to compile all the statistics and analyze them.

I don't recall making any definite claim, I think that was you.

Eliminate all the Patriots victories first.

If you could evaluate it in a statistically significant way, you would have already.

this has been evaluated in a statistically significant way in a few different sports. I would link you to it, but you would close your eyes and start humming and refuse to read it.

 

[drew4008]

Yup, if I were to bet (although I definitely won't touch this game), I'd go with the Texans this week. On the other hand, a team like SD, who is really thriving on their momentum and won however many in a row they have, I would bet they'll keep the pedal to the metal against Washington next week, as even though they've secured a bye, that streak is helping them quite a bit. It really just depends on the team's situation... there isn't a right or wrong answer.

 

[RayClay]

this has been evaluated in a statistically significant way in a few different sports. I would link you to it, but you would close your eyes and start humming and refuse to read it.

Weren't you the one who said there was no such thing as performing in the clutch?

Of course you don't want to put in the work i did in proving you wrong then, but i'd be happy to bump it for a laugh if you want to see what it means to actually prove a point.

 

[RayClay]

By the way, linking complicated statistical sights you don'rt understand, only proves we can go to the sites and realize that you don't understand them.

 

[RayClay]

There's 2 different ideas being talked about here. One is momentum as it pertains to the results of a football game. For example, do you have to be winning your games and playing great team football in december in order to succeed in the playoffs.

The other and more important aspect IMO is the fighting hard as a team and with intensity going into the playoffs vs. being physically fresh/healthy but potentially rusty going into the playoffs.

Obviously many things go into winning in the playoffs and winning a superbowl, but that doesn't mean other factors can help or hurt your CHANCES. If it were proven that momentum is good to have going into the playoffs, that doesn't mean it's required or necessary.

IMO the Colts hurt themselves more than help themselves by over-resting players. The body is very quick to adapt, too much time on or off is a bad thing.

I agree. Playing an inferior team with your scrubs and having a competitive game is probably better than a rout.

 

[BradyBetterThanZorn?]

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: The Lord of Postseason Stats


BTW I beleive the 6 INTs refered to Collins performance in the playoffs a few years ago

 

[makewayhomer]

Weren't you the one who said there was no such thing as performing in the clutch?

Of course you don't want to put in the work i did in proving you wrong then, but i'd be happy to bump it for a laugh if you want to see what it means to actually prove a point.

the great clutch project explained

the great clutch project results

nobody, nobody, who has spent any amount of time educating themselves on the topic still thinks "clutch" can be significantly predicted, or is a major factor in player value going forward

 

[BradyBetterThanZorn?]

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: The Lord of Postseason Stats


BTW I beleive the 6 INTs refered to Collins performance in the playoffs a few years ago

Just checked and one of the guys is Brett "Gunslinger" Favre. I guesss he was just having too much fun getting another one of the many records that Madden never mentions

 

[makewayhomer]

By the way, linking complicated statistical sights you don'rt understand, only proves we can go to the sites and realize that you don't understand them.

this isn't hard to understand

here is an extract of a rigorous study