Yet another Brady argument thread

[Ring 6]

Are you talking about guaranteed dollars here? They spent $163 mil in guaranteed dollars on unrestricted FA

I’m talking about the cap. That’s the pertinent number tried a seasons roster.

 

[Ian]

Yes decimate. They had 60 mill in cap space, about 48 usable. If we assume that Brady signed for 2 years and make the extraordinary assumption that with Brady they would have no longer wanted Thuney that turns 48 usable into 10. We signed enough new players that they played half the snaps so half our snaps would have been played on a 10 mill budget instead of 48 mill.
It would have been as different as night and day.

I guess I meant "not necessarily" decimate, but I agree, there would have been significant differences. Maybe they add a couple of the names they added (hopefully the right ones knowing what we know now minus Agholor/Smith) but again, it's a "what if" exercise without an easy answer. Either way, I agree, definitely would have been a noticeably different group.

 

[Ring 6]

“Cap Space can be maneuvered in a number of different ways”- Bill Belichick. Their guaranteed money was basically equal, Brady’s cap number in 2021 was barely 10$ mil

The patriots didn’t have 25 mill to charge to the 2020 cap so the cap hits would not have matched Tampa. And Tampa created 35 mill dead money to lower their 21 Brady number. You are compare apples and oranges.

 

[Ian]

Are you talking about guaranteed dollars here? They spent $163 mil in guaranteed dollars on unrestricted FA

He's 100% right, they wouldn't have had the money to the extent they did. Again, they could have done some things that would have been impactful, but not to the extent they spent. Not without extending Brady's contract and pushing the money out, which again, that amount does come due eventually.

The one positive - even though I also was frustrated to see him go - is that the year-to-year approach made it where they only endured one really tough year of dead money. You're under the impression it wouldn't have been a problem. It definitely would have, and they wouldn't have had - even with his contract being pushed out - the same amount of $$ to work with.

 

[Ring 6]

I guess I meant "not necessarily" decimate, but I agree, there would have been significant differences. Maybe they add a couple of the names they added (hopefully the right ones knowing what we know now minus Agholor/Smith) but again, it's a "what if" exercise without an easy answer. Either way, I agree, definitely would have been a noticeably different group.

Decimates the wrong word because you aren’t removing you are never adding. Smith was signed before Henry so if we only got one it was probably him, they loved him. Agholor also came first of WRs, I think (not 100% sure)
In any event you can’t remove in hindsight and say that’s how it would have gone.
The bottom line is we would have stepped even further back in 2020 because we would have had to free 20 mill or so, and then wouldn’t have had the big cap space to rebuild. It would have been stagnant mediocrity with the oldest qb ever.

 

[All3Phases]

He's 100% right, they wouldn't have had the money to the extent they did. Again, they could have done some things that would have been impactful, but not to the extent they spent. Not without extending Brady's contract and pushing the money out, which again, that amount does come due eventually.

I haven’t disagreed with that once, I’ve given multiple players that easily could’ve been sacrificed. They spent $163 mil in 2021 on FA correct? Brady in 2021, if not extended would’ve been 25$ of that

The one positive - even though I also was frustrated to see him go - is that the year-to-year approach made it where they only endured one really tough year of dead money. You're under the impression it wouldn't have been a problem. It definitely would have, and they wouldn't have had - even with his contract being pushed out - the same amount of $$ to work with.

I am not, I’ve acknowledged they would’ve made this choice 100/100, was never my argument if it was right or wrong…just that it could’ve easily been done. We are also stuck in the scenario where they didn’t simply sign him before 2019, where everything could’ve been different

 

[All3Phases]

The patriots didn’t have 25 mill to charge to the 2020 cap so the cap hits would not have matched Tampa. And Tampa created 35 mill dead money to lower their 21 Brady number. You are compare apples and oranges.

They franchised thuney for 14$ mil, there’s a massive chunk of the money you needed that had 0 impact on the future

 

[All3Phases]

I guess I meant "not necessarily" decimate, but I agree, there would have been significant differences. Maybe they add a couple of the names they added (hopefully the right ones knowing what we know now minus Agholor/Smith) but again, it's a "what if" exercise without an easy answer. Either way, I agree, definitely would have been a noticeably different group.

You have said it again, a definite possible scenario is much of the same roster, without Jonnu and Agholor. Is that a worse or better team adding Brady. You tell me

 

[All3Phases]

Decimates the wrong word because you aren’t removing you are never adding. Smith was signed before Henry so if we only got one it was probably him, they loved him. Agholor also came first of WRs, I think (not 100% sure)
In any event you can’t remove in hindsight and say that’s how it would have gone.
The bottom line is we would have stepped even further back in 2020 because we would have had to free 20 mill or so, and then wouldn’t have had the big cap space to rebuild. It would have been stagnant mediocrity with the oldest qb ever.

Smith and Agholor were also the most expensive TE/WR they signed in 21. So using our made up scenario, they had less money and could’ve settled with the cheaper options in Henry and Bourne.

 

[Ring 6]

They franchised thuney for 14$ mil, can you find me 11$ more mil on a 53 man roster? You’re talking a trivial amount of money here over years

It’s not OVER YEARS it’s the 2020 SALARY CAP.
This is the issue. If you would listen you might understand.
The 2019 team was a shadow of the teams we won with.
In 2020 without paying Brady we had virtually zero cap room and added no players of consequence, and lost a number of our own free agents.
Even without paying Brady we took a LARGE step backward with the talent on the roster in 2020.
If we paid Brady 2 guaranteed years at 25 mill
each there aren’t many ways to slice a 2 year guaranteed deal. The cash he gets in 20 counts toward 20, the cash he gets in 21 counts toward 21. That’s it.
So the step we took back would have required an even bigger one to shed the cap space taken up by Brady. We would have had to shed 25 mill
In 2020 cap hit. That’s devastating.
Then the bonanza in 2021 would have been 50 mill less because you paid Brady 50 mill more than the actual cap numbers that resulted in the space we had.

 

[Ring 6]

You have said it again, a definite possible scenario is much of the same roster, without Jonnu and Agholor. Is that a worse or better team adding Brady. You tell me

You are still 30 mill in first year cap hits short.

 

[All3Phases]

It’s not OVER YEARS it’s the 2020 SALARY CAP.
This is the issue. If you would listen you might understand.
The 2019 team was a shadow of the teams we won with.
In 2020 without paying Brady we had virtually zero cap room and added no players of consequence, and lost a number of our own free agents.
Even without paying Brady we took a LARGE step backward with the talent on the roster in 2020.
If we paid Brady 2 guaranteed years at 25 mill
each there aren’t many ways to slice a 2 year guaranteed deal. The cash he gets in 20 counts toward 20, the cash he gets in 21 counts toward 21. That’s it.

Nothing you said here refutes anything I said. Also, you’ve been using the Bucs deal/extension and current dead cap as your criteria, so am I. He was extended after 2020, so his cap hit in 2021 was 10$ mil. They franchises Thuney AFTER Brady signed in Tampa. That alone is 14$ mil just for 2020. Not sure which part you aren’t getting. His loss would’ve had 0 impact on the 2021 roster. Thats 1 player alone, that frees up a huge chunk of the space

So the step we took back would have required an even bigger one to shed the cap space taken up by Brady. We would have had to shed 25 mill
In 2020 cap hit. That’s devastating.

I just shed 14 for you in 2 seconds that had no impact on your future roster.

Then the bonanza in 2021 would have been 50 mill less because you paid Brady 50 mill more than the actual cap numbers that resulted in the space we had.

By 2021, the Patriots would’ve been on the hook for 25$ mil of Brady’s remaining deal (had he not been extended) 25/163 is what % of their gtd money that they spent in that offseason?

 

[All3Phases]

You are still 30 mill in first year cap hits short.

Brady’s cap hit in 2021 was 10$ mil. You used this standard

 

[Ring 6]

Brady’s cap hit in 2021 was 10$ mil. You used this standard

It wouldn’t have been here.

 

[Ring 6]

Nothing you said here refutes anything I said. Also, you’ve been using the Bucs deal/extension and current dead cap as your criteria, so am I. He was extended after 2020, so his cap hit in 2021 was 10$ mil. They franchises Thuney AFTER Brady signed in Tampa. That alone is 14$ mil just for 2020. Not sure which part you aren’t getting. His loss would’ve had 0 impact on the 2021 roster. Thats 1 player alone, that frees up a huge chunk of the space

I just shed 14 for you in 2 seconds that had no impact on your future roster.

By 2021, the Patriots would’ve been on the hook for 25$ mil of Brady’s remaining deal (had he not been extended) 25/163 is what % of their gtd money that they spent in that offseason?

In your world Brady comes back, even though he didn’t want to, when we add zero players, let his best OL among others walk and are still 11 million over the cap. Yeah, right. You shed nothing from 21 because he wasn’t here.

What does guaranteed money over the length of the contract have to do with the current year cap.
Please just tell me whether you don’t understand or are purposefully being dishonest.

 

[All3Phases]

It wouldn’t have been here.

So this standard is now over? So then you can stop talking about the $35 mil in dead money this year in our alternate universe

 

[All3Phases]

In your world Brady comes back, even though he didn’t want to, when we add zero players, let his best OL among others walk and are still 11 million over the cap. Yeah, right. You shed nothing from 21 because he wasn’t here.

For some reason you keep talking about the 20 team when I haven’t implied they would’ve been competitive. You keep talking about losing Thuney; WHEN THEY LOST HIM ANYWAY. 2021 would not have been affected by his loss, either way.

What does guaranteed money over the length of the contract have to do with the current year cap.
Please just tell me whether you don’t understand or are purposefully being dishonest.

Ring, you tell me this, how was Jonnus cap hit in 2021 under $6 mil when they gtd him over 31$ mil? Because that’s spread out over years Correct? That could’ve been done in any number of ways for any number of players on the 2020 roster or 21 roster. Brady would’ve been owed 25$ mil in 21, that could’ve been extended (Bucs) or just paid out. They can maneuver the cap any way they want, ask your coach, it needs to be paid either way. Would it have hurt them in the future? Probably…would they probably still have remained competitive in 2021? Yep.

 

[Ian]

You have said it again, a definite possible scenario is much of the same roster, without Jonnu and Agholor. Is that a worse or better team adding Brady. You tell me

Again, as @Ring6 mentioned, they loved those two, so look at it as imagine Brady having to function without at least Henry and Bourne, and probably still minus one of those two. They would have had probably a similar 10-win season but I don't know if they get past Buffalo in 2021 with those two and not the others.

I don't know why you're fighting about it. Could they have kept Brady? Sure. But the financial gymnastics required would still have left them undermanned against what was a pretty tough group of AFC teams that year (the $$ is what it is). Maybe they win one more game (11), but I don't think they had the firepower to make it to the end.

I love the guy too - but it is what it is.

 

[Ring 6]

For some reason you keep talking about the 20 team when I haven’t implied they would’ve been competitive. You keep talking about losing Thuney; WHEN THEY LOST HIM ANYWAY. 2021 would not have been affected by his loss, either way.

Ring, you tell me this, how was Jonnus cap hit in 2021 under $6 mil when they gtd him over 31$ mil? Because that’s spread out over years Correct? That could’ve been done in any number of ways for any number of players on the 2020 roster or 21 roster. Brady would’ve been owed 25$ mil in 21, that could’ve been extended (Bucs) or just paid out. They can maneuver the cap any way they want, ask your coach, it needs to be paid either way. Would it have hurt them in the future? Probably…would they probably still have remained competitive in 2021? Yep.

So your plan was to bring back Brady and tank and spend 50 of the 60 mill you will have available to rebuild in him and expect to build a competitive team with $10 mill in cap space?

No. That’s not how it works. The first year cap hit is by far the lowest. You are now grasping at straws saying you think there must be math that can do what you want.

Let’s put it another way. The patriots had about 65 million in cap space between 2020 and 2021 and they used all of it to build the team they did. Had they spent 50 of the 65 on Brady they could not have brought in anywhere near the amount or quality of players they did because they would have only had 15 mill to do it with.

Basically your plan takes away Thuney from the 2020 team then adds him back in 2021 while many other players are leaving.

You cannot “maneuver the cap any way you want” You cannot spent 50 million more on one player without spending 50 million less in others.

You admit they would have sucked in 2020 and then had 10 mill to spend on fee agency in 2021. They would have sucked again. That is exactly my point.
Having Tom Brady is way better than not having Tom Brady. But if you can’t afford to put a team around him (because if the cap issues created by staying on top so long) it’s better to rebuild without him than to lose with him.
2019 team wasn’t winning. 2020 would have been measurably worse, 2021 would not have had room to improve appreciably.
Brady choosing to leave was best for him and best in the long run for the patriots and it’s almost impossible to see success in the interim if he had stayed with a team crumbling around him.

 

[All3Phases]

Again, as @Ring6 mentioned, they loved those two, so look at it as imagine Brady having to function without at least Henry and Bourne, and probably still minus one of those two. They would have had probably a similar 10-win season but I don't know if they get past Buffalo in 2021 with those two and not the others.

Again, the cheaper of the two were Henry and Bourne. You have to trust the team builder to choose the right talent for the money right? Nobody knows what happens in this scenario, all I’m saying is that the team could’ve remained very much in tact if money was spent wisely

I don't know why you're fighting about it. Could they have kept Brady? Sure. But the financial gymnastics required would still have left them undermanned against what was a pretty tough group of AFC teams that year (the $$ is what it is). Maybe they win one more game (11), but I don't think they had the firepower to make it to the end.

I love the guy too - but it is what it is.

I’m fighting about it the same way you two are. I just disagree on the POV that 2/50 would’ve completely altered the teams financials and ability to build a roster. It started by me simply disagreeing that Brady essentially was not wanted back rather than choosing to leave. Seems like you agree he wanted a long term deal here and never received one