* Ye 2011 Mock Draft Thread!! *

[MaineMan]

Since we're doing a little draft trad'em, I'll throw my hat into the ring.

I was looking at what possibilities could open up by trading down from Oakland's pick (oh no! trading down!) to gain better advantage at the end of round one and the beginning of round two. Here's what I came up with:

Let's say Oakland's pick finds its best possible placement at #11 and Minnesota's does the same in the 3rd and becomes #77. Taking those picks into account and using only the first 4 rounds of this coming draft, and assuming the Pats pick at the end of each round, I'll move forward.

We would have picks:

11
32
33
64
77
96
128

Pick #11 is worth 1250 points on JJ's draft value chart. We trade that for #18 and #50 (one team's 1st and 2nd round pick this draft) which has a value of 1300. Roughly equal.

We then trade #18, whose value is 900, for #30 and #62, which equal 904 points. Roughly equal again.

Our picks so far:

30, 32, 33, 50, 62, 64, 77, 96, and 128

We then trade #62 and #64 (554 pts) for #34 (560 pts). Roughly equal again.

We also trade #50 and #77 (605 pts) for #31 (600 pts). Roughly equal again.

Our picks now:

30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 96, and 128

Five consecutive picks at the end of round one and the start of round two! How neat!

However, we then trade #31 and #128 for #29. Then we trade #30 and #96 for #24.

That leaves us with:

24, 29, 32, 33, and 34

At those spots we can get every position we need filled with top talent from the college ranks. I'm thinking Sherrod, Pouncey, Houston, Harris, and Watt.

What do you think guys?

A superb illustration of the mechanical principles of trading around.

The next step is to apply this to the REAL draft order/sets of picks that each team has.

First of all, for instance, the team that has the #18 may not actually have the #50 to go with it by draft day. Same thing for the #30 and #62.

Secondly, you have to try to figure which prospect the team that's trading with us is after and what team they're trying to jump who may be in competition for that pick. IOW, does it make sense for them to do the deal? For instance, you might project that Team A's most desperate need is for a likely-to-start-immediately 3-4 NT. But then you look closer and see that there's really no team between their current pick and the higher pick they'd be getting from us that's likely to even consider a DT because they have far more desperate needs at other positions. So, why would Team A trade up? You also have to ask, is their need for that one player so critical that they'd be willing to lose a pick that might otherwise go toward filling another important need?

Just saying that this is a good start.

 

[MaineMan]

The Premium on Moving Back is 1 Round...approximately.

But what it really is ~ again: approximately ~ is a 50% Premium, roughly based on The Famous Draft Value Chart, and subject to all manner of variables, including the prospective Return On Investment of the targeted player, the Relative Strength of the two Draft Classes involved...and the prospects of the team paying the Premium.

No, Coach Bill The Mad doesn't conference me in on those negotiations: I get all that from applying The Chart to past trades, many of them our own.

All that being the case, trading #33 for another team's 2012 1st Rounder ~ or a package including it ~ would involve applying about a 50% discount to their prospective Draft position.

***

I've always found that notion amusing, because I can only imagine the conversations Coach Bill The Great has had with previous trade partners who swapped an unknown quantity to us for a known quantity, such as the Raiders, Panthers, and Vikings, in this draft, or the vast array of trade partners in other drafts of the past!!

"That should be PLENTY, Bill. After all, I feel an 0-16 coming on. I mean, we SUCK."

"My @$$. I thank GOD we aren't playing you this year. I fully expect to see you in the Super Bowl, where you'll probably beat us 73-0."

***

So as a starting point, if we were to trade #33 straight up for someone's 2012 1st, we'd be looking at a team that finished this year at about #13: #33 being tagged at 580 points, and #13 being tagged at about 1150 points.

Obviously, we'd want to target a team that we think is about to COLLAPSE.

In a package deal with a 2011 3rd Rounder, we might, for instance, pick up #84, this year, and the 2012 1st Rounder of a team that finished this year at #20 or #21.

***

MIND you: The Draft Value Chart is an estimator, not a rule book. Some trades go down for a Discount, relative to the Premium...And some trades go for a Super Premium.

For instance, when we traded the Panthers #89, last year, Fair Value ~ as it were ~ would've been the 2nd Rounder of a team that finished with #29 or so: #89, at 145 Points, swapped for #61, at 292 Points: the Panthers paying the usual 100% Premium for Trading Forward, which is to say they would Discount their own 2011 Pick by 50%.

By giving us the 2nd Rounder of a team ~ their own ~ that had finished #17, they coughed up the proxy for #49, which was worth 410 Points in 2011 "Dollars", and, therefore, at a 50% Discount, 205 Points in 2010 "Dollars"...for #89, at 145 Points in 2010 "Dollars".

Coach Bill ROOKED them!! :rocker:

* Don't mind me, gents: I wanted to save this thought, so it goes in this Thread, which I use for that purpose.

Excellent explanation!

 

[Off The Grid]

Thank you, Brother Maine!!

 

[RodThePat]

I'll bite.

Projecting the 2011 Patriots Roster

Trades
Darius Butler – 2011 4th round pick
Ron Brace – 2011 4th round pick
Brandon Meriweather – 2012 2nd round pick
James Sanders – 2012 4th round pick
Mike Wright – 2013 6th pick
Tully Banta-Cain – 2013 7th round pick
Ryan Wendell (sign and trade) – 2013 7th round pick

These couldn't be more unrealistic if you tried.

 

[Snake Eyes]

is this a joke? you cannot trade half of your starters for 4th round picks. this isnt madden, its real life

Very true, regarding effective teams I think chemistry and culture need to be heavily taken into account, there are things that can't be quantified with stats.

YouTube - Al Pacino's Inspirational Speech

You think about that idea that football is not only about doing your job but having a guy next to you who'd be willing to stick his face into a brick wall for you, and then having an entire roster full of those guys, that's a team. Not only does experience together help build productive locker room culture, technical football chemistry but interpersonal chemistry as well.

Gutting a roster not only brings in a lot of football unknowns but personel unknowns as well: are they true Patriot material who will willingly drink BB's Kool Aid and pass it on as well? Will they do it from day 1 or will it take a while for them to "buy into the system"? Teams and players need time to mesh, big time gutting and replacing can very easily ****** that.

As much as I enjoy thinking about adding/subtracting players I'm probably a bit overzealous.

 

[CTHuskies]

I liked the reaction to the trades, so I will try to explain:

Darius Butler – 2011 4th round pick – a bust - he is at best in the dime package player - [keeping 4 from McCourty, Leigh Bodden (IR), Kyle Arrington, Tony Carter and Jonathan Wilhite (IR) and using 1st or 2nd round pick for Butler’s replacement]

Ron Brace – 2011 4th round pick – a bigger bust, a 7th rounder beat him out - [keeping 4 from Ty Warren (IR), Brandon Deaderick, Eric Moore, Lorenzo Washington (PS) and Darryl Richard (IR) and using 1st or 2nd round pick for DE]

Mike Wright – 2013 6th pick – considered keeping but he has been trending down since Seymour was traded, I’d rather keep him than TBC. Wishful thinking that someone offers a pick – [see above]

Brandon Meriweather – 2012 2nd round pick – he is a liability, might get 2nd round pick if we wait until 2012 - [keeping Pat Chung, Jarrad Page, Josh Barrett (IR), Bret Lockett (IR) and Sergio Brown and drafting a developmental type]

James Sanders – 2012 4th round pick – too costly to keep behind Chung, pushed pick out to 2012 to get 4th rounder – [see above]

Tully Banta-Cain – 2013 7th round pick - wishful thinking that someone offers a pick – [only keeping Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich and using at least 2nd and 3rd round picks and looking for free agents]

Ryan Wendell (sign and trade) – 2013 7th round pick – he is too small and is not starting caliber. wishful thinking that someone offers a pick, if not he get cut next year – [anticipate Mankins and Kaczur returning. Also see Pats resigning Light and like Steve Maneri (PS). Finally see them using either 1st, 2nd or 3rd round pick for OL]

 

[CTHuskies]

1a Cameron Jordan DE
1b. Justin Houston OLB Georgia
2a. trade down to late 2nd Ras I Dowling CB/S
2b. Jernel Jerrigan WR Troy
3. Stephen Schilling G Michigan
3. Ryan Williams RB V Tech
5. Ryan Pugh C Auburn

I like your thinking

1-15 Cameron or J.J. Watt
1-32 Houston or Ryan Kerrigan
2-33 Nate Solder T Colorado
2-64 Orlando Franklin G Miami
3-78 Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech
3-96 Lawrence Guy DE Arizona State
4-128 Mario Fannin RB Auburn

 

[Sciz]

Mike Wright leads the team in sacks and was second last year. Why the hell do you want to get rid of him?

 

[D-Money]

Darius Butler has also played well lately.Lets not give up on him just yet!!!I like Jared Crick as a guy that can play here as a 3-4 DE.I would wasted the first 3 picks on a 3-4 LB, DE, and a OL.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I liked the reaction to the trades, so I will try to explain:

Darius Butler – 2011 4th round pick – a bust - he is at best in the dime package player - [keeping 4 from McCourty, Leigh Bodden (IR), Kyle Arrington, Tony Carter and Jonathan Wilhite (IR) and using 1st or 2nd round pick for Butler’s replacement]

Ron Brace – 2011 4th round pick – a bigger bust, a 7th rounder beat him out - [keeping 4 from Ty Warren (IR), Brandon Deaderick, Eric Moore, Lorenzo Washington (PS) and Darryl Richard (IR) and using 1st or 2nd round pick for DE]

Mike Wright – 2013 6th pick – considered keeping but he has been trending down since Seymour was traded, I’d rather keep him than TBC. Wishful thinking that someone offers a pick – [see above]

Brandon Meriweather – 2012 2nd round pick – he is a liability, might get 2nd round pick if we wait until 2012 - [keeping Pat Chung, Jarrad Page, Josh Barrett (IR), Bret Lockett (IR) and Sergio Brown and drafting a developmental type]

James Sanders – 2012 4th round pick – too costly to keep behind Chung, pushed pick out to 2012 to get 4th rounder – [see above]

Tully Banta-Cain – 2013 7th round pick - wishful thinking that someone offers a pick – [only keeping Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich and using at least 2nd and 3rd round picks and looking for free agents]

Ryan Wendell (sign and trade) – 2013 7th round pick – he is too small and is not starting caliber. wishful thinking that someone offers a pick, if not he get cut next year – [anticipate Mankins and Kaczur returning. Also see Pats resigning Light and like Steve Maneri (PS). Finally see them using either 1st, 2nd or 3rd round pick for OL]

Still DAFT, only more so!

 

[Off The Grid]

Mike Wright leads the team in sacks and was second last year. Why the hell do you want to get rid of him?

Very fair question.

Answer ~ theoretically: Because I hope to finish the process of developing and drafting players of considerably greater Impact, and, thence, snatch a 5th Rounder for him ~ I'd hoped for a 3rd or 4th, before he got injured.

By NO means, though, do I discount his potential Value, going forward, though, as a Mentor...So ~ with a nod at Brother Snake's excellent discussion of Aggregate Chemistry, above ~ I would not consider it a ForeGone Conclusion that we roll him...

But of course: I want to draft THREE High Cal Grizzlies AND retain Wilfork, Warren, Warren, Deaderick, Brace, and Pryor...so you can see how it might get a little THIN for Wright...IF we follow that Game Plan.

 

[Off The Grid]

I liked the reaction to the trades, so I will try to explain:

Darius Butler – 2011 4th round pick – a bust - he is at best in the dime package player - [keeping 4 from McCourty, Leigh Bodden (IR), Kyle Arrington, Tony Carter and Jonathan Wilhite (IR) and using 1st or 2nd round pick for Butler’s replacement]

Ron Brace – 2011 4th round pick – a bigger bust, a 7th rounder beat him out - [keeping 4 from Ty Warren (IR), Brandon Deaderick, Eric Moore, Lorenzo Washington (PS) and Darryl Richard (IR) and using 1st or 2nd round pick for DE]

Mike Wright – 2013 6th pick – considered keeping but he has been trending down since Seymour was traded, I’d rather keep him than TBC. Wishful thinking that someone offers a pick – [see above]

Brandon Meriweather – 2012 2nd round pick – he is a liability, might get 2nd round pick if we wait until 2012 - [keeping Pat Chung, Jarrad Page, Josh Barrett (IR), Bret Lockett (IR) and Sergio Brown and drafting a developmental type]

James Sanders – 2012 4th round pick – too costly to keep behind Chung, pushed pick out to 2012 to get 4th rounder – [see above]

Tully Banta-Cain – 2013 7th round pick - wishful thinking that someone offers a pick – [only keeping Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich and using at least 2nd and 3rd round picks and looking for free agents]

Ryan Wendell (sign and trade) – 2013 7th round pick – he is too small and is not starting caliber. wishful thinking that someone offers a pick, if not he get cut next year – [anticipate Mankins and Kaczur returning. Also see Pats resigning Light and like Steve Maneri (PS). Finally see them using either 1st, 2nd or 3rd round pick for OL]

I like you, Brother Huskie...But as a Fellow Lunatic, may I suggest you either get off the Crack or smoke more Herb??

 

[Off The Grid]

The Game is changing, and it requires that we expand our vocabulary, I think.

Aaron Hernandez is what I'm inclined to call a Wing End, and a STUNNING one.

Rob Gronkowski is a Wing Back, and an amazing Wing Back, for one so young.

Alge Crumpler is, of course, a Tight End, and an utter BEAST.

Stanley Havili and Peyton Hillis are simply Full Backs, in the Classic sense, but we can no longer call them Full Backs, can we ~ ?? ~ any more than we can call a Libertarian a "Liberal", as the inference has changed, dramatically.

"Full Back" now elicits visions of Owen Marecic and my BOY, Sam Gash.

Stanley Havili and Peyton Hillis ~ as well as Shaun Chapas, Charles Clay, and ~ above all ~ Marion Fannin and Owen Schmitt ~ are what I now prefer to call Swing Backs: "Full Service" Full Backs, if you will.

* Keeping this thought...

 

[Off The Grid]

Give Me

~ TB Danny WoodHead ~ Super Lighting Bug SLASHER!!

~ SB Owen Schmitt ~ Godzilla!!

~ FB Owen Marecic ~ THRASHER. BLASTER.

~ TB DaRel Scott ~ SLASHER. Runs like a MASHER. ~ 5th Rounder

~ HB Allen Bradford ~ Hard Yard MASHER. ~ 6th Rounder

~ SB Marion Fannin ~ Full Service Swing Back. ~ 7th Rounder


* Keeping this thought...

 

[jsull87]

Still DAFT, only more so!

I agree.

Merriweather... Maybe as his value is high and his role might be diminishing on this team.

But then sanders as well? so trade your 2 starting FS... specially how every player says what a pro sanders is and how he gets everyone in the right possition... i don't see it.

As for Brace and Butler. If they are that big a bust (debatable) no one is giving us a 4th rounder for them. Butler just had a great game and Brace has been our rotational DE but has been hurt the last 3 weeks. So don't know why your saying he's a megga bust.... just yet.

Mike wirght on the down slide? he had what 5.5 sacks (his highest total.. since 5 last year soooo seymours absense hasn't really hurt him)? and has missed the last 5 games due to injury. He is a rotational DE and our best interior pass rusher (wilfork excluded). You want to trade away our best interior pass rusher for a 2013 6th rounder?

Tully i can see, he's had a worse year than last year. But i think it was a little optomistic for us to think he was a 10 sack guy. but once again if he isn' going to make the team... why would someone A give us a 2013 7th and B y wouldnt we just let him try beat people out as we have already given him the new contract?

I applaud people thinking out of the box but as one poster said this isn't madden trading away 4 of your vets 3 of which start on a 13-2 team and your last years 2 2nd rounders in my opinion isn't realistic and doesn't make sense if your trying to make your football team better

 

[jsull87]

Very fair question.

Answer ~ theoretically: Because I hope to finish the process of developing and drafting players of considerably greater Impact, and, thence, snatch a 5th Rounder for him ~ I'd hoped for a 3rd or 4th, before he got injured.

By NO means, though, do I discount his potential Value, going forward, though, as a Mentor...So ~ with a nod at Brother Snake's excellent discussion of Aggregate Chemistry, above ~ I would not consider it a ForeGone Conclusion that we roll him...

But of course: I want to draft THREE High Cal Grizzlies AND retain Wilfork, Warren, Warren, Deaderick, Brace, and Pryor...so you can see how it might get a little THIN for Wright...IF we follow that Game Plan.

see this thinking i can see why you would trade wright... same principal as merriweather his va;ue is high. And you are still keeping young developmental talent and your veteran core of warren warren wilfork.

Personally i'd like to keep wright as he is my opinion is better than pryor is only 28 and has been a very good interior rusher for us the past 2 years... would hate for him to ever have to start again though

 

[jsull87]

Give Me

~ TB Danny WoodHead ~ Super Lighting Bug SLASHER!!

~ SB Owen Schmitt ~ Godzilla!!

~ FB Owen Marecic ~ THRASHER. BLASTER.

~ TB DaRel Scott ~ SLASHER. Runs like a MASHER. ~ 5th Rounder

~ HB Allen Bradford ~ Hard Yard MASHER. ~ 6th Rounder

~ SB Marion Fannin ~ Full Service Swing Back. ~ 7th Rounder


* Keeping this thought...

I think we'll have to disagree on one of these... i like what BJGE brings to this team and his tandem with Woody... i think taylor is gone next year... faulk i don't know. Morris's play on special teams has been great... is he the FB we want? i don't know.

BTW with your draft trade value post before. a good one to look at when looking at the trade value of the 33rd and what a trade might look like, look at the denver trade when they went after alphonso smith. They gave up alot for that pick

 

[Off The Grid]

Give Me

~ TB Danny WoodHead ~ Super Lighting Bug SLASHER!!

~ SB Owen Schmitt ~ Godzilla!!

~ FB Owen Marecic ~ THRASHER. BLASTER.

~ TB DaRel Scott ~ SLASHER. Runs like a MASHER. ~ 5th Rounder

~ HB Allen Bradford ~ Hard Yard MASHER. ~ 6th Rounder

~ SB Marion Fannin ~ Full Service Swing Back. ~ 7th Rounder


* Keeping this thought...

I think we'll have to disagree on one of these... i like what BJGE brings to this team and his tandem with Woody... i think taylor is gone next year... faulk i don't know. Morris's play on special teams has been great... is he the FB we want? i don't know.

BTW with your draft trade value post before. a good one to look at when looking at the trade value of the 33rd and what a trade might look like, look at the denver trade when they went after alphonso smith. They gave up alot for that pick

1 ~ Actually, we don't disagree at ALL on Brother Green, and I'm glad you brought him up: Hyphen Boy has grown on me IMMENSELY, this year, and now that he's augmented his Rarely Takes a Loss Game and his Virtually Never ~ Knock on Wood ~ Fumbles Game with his new found I Should Probably Run AROUND My Blockers Game...I've become a BIG fan.

But The Infernal Salary Cap ~ for those of us who wish to pursue Multi Championship Dynastic Glory ~ imposes a rather severe Children Of The Corn mentality.

It's simply not enough to ask "Is he worth it??"

ROI, baby.

ROI.

If we are to keep On The Path...Ben Green MUST be RFA'd and traded to The Highest Bidder...and replaced with SCRAPPERS at one FIFTH his Market Salary.

So Let It Be Written.

2 ~ Thanks for your kind words, sir, and very good point: Alphonso Smith is a PERFECT example of how rare it is NOT, that teams OVER pay even BEYOND the harsh Premium that Trading Forward entails.

To HighLight your point: Book Value on Denver's 2010 1st Rounder ~ based on their 2009 Draft Seeding of #12 ~ would be 1200 Points in 2010 Dollars, or 600 Points in 2009 Dollars...Where as the 2009 #37 Pick that they received from the SeaHawks in exchange ~ in order to snatch the Immortal Alphonso Smith, for the love of Jeebus!! ~ was worth 530 Points in 2009 Dollars, a SEVERE Mark Up.

 

[ZoisKing]

A superb illustration of the mechanical principles of trading around.

The next step is to apply this to the REAL draft order/sets of picks that each team has.

First of all, for instance, the team that has the #18 may not actually have the #50 to go with it by draft day. Same thing for the #30 and #62.

Secondly, you have to try to figure which prospect the team that's trading with us is after and what team they're trying to jump who may be in competition for that pick. IOW, does it make sense for them to do the deal? For instance, you might project that Team A's most desperate need is for a likely-to-start-immediately 3-4 NT. But then you look closer and see that there's really no team between their current pick and the higher pick they'd be getting from us that's likely to even consider a DT because they have far more desperate needs at other positions. So, why would Team A trade up? You also have to ask, is their need for that one player so critical that they'd be willing to lose a pick that might otherwise go toward filling another important need?

Just saying that this is a good start.

Thanks for the reply.

I thought about going into team needs, but that kind of detail would have been a stretch to implement for me. I just wanted to enjoy the dynamics of the draft and how interesting things could possibly turn out if we were able to use our picks to their fullest.

At the end of my process, I was suprised to find how much talent we could accumulate at the sweet spot of the draft just by shrewd maneuvering.

Thanks for your thoughts.

 

[Wilfork#75]

2011 Patriots Mock Draft

I know a lot of people won’t agree with this mock and that’s cool. Any feedback is welcomed.

The main thing I looked at for this mock is trying to balance drafting on need, value and opportunity. In terms of need there aren’t too many areas that are huge needs and require a complete transformation. I don’t want to overreact from the Jets game and make too many major changes because the team chemistry was great this year. For me the two main areas that could be improved are depth and youth along the OL, as well as another defensive playmaker, preferably at OLB.

I know I’m in the minority here but I wouldn’t go after a DE in the early rounds of this draft. With Ty Warren coming back next season, and hopefully the emergence of Kade Weston, I think we have a lot of solid depth at DE. The only way to upgrade this would be to add a stud that be dominant along the DL and allow our LB’s to make plays. While I would love the next Richard Seymour, I just don’t see one in this draft. While there are a lot of guys that would be solid contributors, I don’t think I would spend a 1st round pick on a guy that wouldn’t offer too much of an upgrade over who we have. A stud DE is great in theory, but in reality I don’t see that guy in this draft.

Finally another area I know some won’t agree with is franchising and trading off Logan Mankins. While there is no doubt he makes the OL better and I would like to keep him, I just don’t think he is worth what he is asking for. And instead of letting him walk in F.A. I think franchising and trading him would be the best option. While Mankins is a great run blocker, he is only average in pass protection and I believe he can be replaced without downgrading the OL too much in the short term.

For me trading Brandon Meriweather in the offseason is a no brainer. While there is no doubt that he is a talented player, I just feel the defence is better off without him. This season he has been a huge disappointment to me because he was suppose to step up and be the leader of the secondary, but instead he struggled, and was even benched. I just don’t think he fits the ‘bend don’t break’ philosophy and would be better suited to a more aggressive defence. Coming off a Pro Bowl season (that still makes me laugh); I think you have to trade him while his value is high.

Finally, this mock isn’t just aimed at winning it all in 2011, but rather building a dynasty from 2012 onwards. The Patriots have such a talented young core of players along with the best QB in football, so another great draft could set the Patriots up for years to come. I’m looking to not only fill the needs that the Pats have this season but also look at future needs to try to fill them before they arise. By doing this its takes the pressure off the young guys to perform from day 1 and lets them develop and blossom into the players they are destined to become. And hopefully by getting Brady a few more rings he could potentially go down as the best ever. I also think next year’s draft will be quite shallow, and possibly weaker than this one, so I would be very aggressive in this draft and even trade future mid round picks to get guys this year.

Key Re-signings

OT- Matt Light- He has played great this year and he certainly proved me wrong. Hopefully we can keep him on a two year deal. He provides a good veteran presence along the OL and helps keep the chemistry they have built this year.

FS- Jarrod Page/Brandon McGowan- without Meriweather around I would like to keep either Page or McGowan as a veteran presence in the secondary to pair with James Sanders. Page would be my first choice, but if can get more money elsewhere than I wouldn’t mind re-signing McGowan. Coming off an injury I think a 1 year deal would be ideal to allow that Pats to transition into a younger FS while giving McGowan a chance to re-establish his value and play for a new contract.

DL- Gerard Warren- Warren has been great for the Pats and I think it’s a no brainer to re-sign him. He’s a perfect guy to have around as veteran leadership and would be great to help transition the younger guys, and like Light he is great for team chemistry.

Trades

Franchise and trade 2010 Pro Bowl OG L. Mankins + 2010 Pro Bowl (lol) FS B. Meriweather to Dallas for 2011 1st (9) + 2011 4th (9)

This trade was originally for the Cowboys 2nd and 3rd round picks, however, after the recent pro bowl announcements I realised that the rest of the league values Mankins and Meriweather a lot more that I do. Normally I wouldn’t think that a team with such a high pick would make such a bold move but I think Dallas is in a unique situation. They seem to match up perfectly as trade partners with their biggest needs being OL and safety. Jason Garret will be under pressure to win from day 1, and I think this is the type of trade that will benefit both teams. The Pats get value for players they no longer have need for, while Dallas gets two Pro Bowlers in positions of major need to immediately improve their team. Jerry Jones has that big stadium to sell tickets for and a blockbuster trade like this is one way to generate interest. I think this trade makes some sense value wise; I have a mid first round value for Mankins and a high second round value for Meriweather. For arguments sake we make Mankins worth the 18th pick and Meriweather the 36th pick then they are worth 1450 points on the trade value chart, compared to 1440 points for picks 1(9) + 4 (9).

Trade 1 (9) from Dal + 2012 2nd + OLB Tully Banta-Cain to Arizona for 1 (5) + 6 (6)

I know the Pats don’t traditionally move up in the Draft, especially into the top 5, but Da’Quan Bowers is a special player and could be the next Willie McGinest. Value wise this trade favours the Pats, but Arizona will likely be desperate to trade down, especially if Robert Quinn is off the board. I would rather trade a future 2nd because unlike most, I like a lot of players in this draft. Also, next year’s draft could be as shallow, if not even shallower than this draft so a future, late 2nd round pick might not have as much value. My only concern with this move is the money paid to a top 5 pick, especially if there is no rookie wage scale.

• Trade 1 (17) from Oak + 2012 3rd for 1(13)
Moving ahead of the Rams to get Julio Jones. Yes this trading off a future pick once again but we will get one back soon.

• Trade 1 (28) to Cle for 2 (5) + 4 (5)
Move back to pick up an extra 4th while still getting ‘my guy’

• Trade 2 (1) for 2012 1st and 2011 3rd
Classic BB move, good value for this pick. Gives us two 1st rounders next year to make up for no 2nd or 3rd.

• Trade 3 (32) to Jax for 4(17) + 4(24)
Solid value trade with a lot of guys I like in the mid 4th round

• Trade 4 (24) + 6 (24) to Min for 5 (13) + 5 (19)
Another value trade targeting guys in the 5th

This is how I’m currently projecting the 1st round to go.
Mock Draft Round 1

1. Car- DT- N. Fairley- Auburn
The best DT since Ndamukong Suh

2. Den- DL- M. Dareus- Bama
This pick comes down to Dareus and Peterson. DT offers more value at #2

3. Buf- DE/OLB- R. Quinn- UNC
A number of options here but I think Buffalo goes for the top 3-4 OLB

4. Cin- WR- AJ Green- Georgia
This pick comes down to Green and Bowers, with Ocho Cinco and TO likely gone I think they go Green.

5. NE- DE/OLB- D. Bowers- Clem
Because of the number of 3-4 teams in the top 5 I think Bowers falls. The biggest threat to Bowers is Cinci at 4; if he falls past them I would move up to 5 to get Bowers. The next team that would be interested in Bowers would be Cleveland. If I don’t feel Cleveland would take Bowers than I would stick at 9 because he would likely drop there.

6. Cle- CB- P. Peterson- LSU
They would love Bowers, but instead ‘settle’ for the best player in this draft.

7. SF- QB- B. Gabbert-Missouri
Both Alex and Troy Smith aren’t the answer so SF needs a new QB. Gabbert is the top guy on the board so they take him. CB is also an option here.

8. Tenn- QB- C. Newton- Auburn
Tennessee desperately needs a new QB and they are almost forced to take one. I don’t know if they would go for Newton because of the Vince Young effect, but he is a much better option than Mallet, and Locker’s stock is really down.

9. Ari- OLB- A. Smith- Missouri
Quinn didn’t fall to them so they move back and grab Smith

10. Wash- QB- J. Locker- Wash
Seems like a great fit for Shanahan’s system. They need a QB and I think Dan Snyder is still in love with Locker from last year.

11. Hou- OLB- V. Miller- Tex A&M
They just switched to the 3-4 so they desperately need an OLB. This pick is between Von Miller and CB Prince Amukamara. I think they go need over value and take Miller.

12. Minn- CB- P. Amukamara- Neb
This draft falls perfectly for Min. Their biggest needs are QB, OT and CB. With no QB’s of value on the board they will pick between Tyron Smith and Prince Amukamara. Amukamara offers much more value at an area of huge need. A perfect pick for them.

13. NE (from Det)- WR- J. Jones- Bama
Jones is a great fit for the Pats and offers an extra dimension to their offence. The Rams would likely select Jones at 14 so the Pats move above them to snatch him.

14. Stl- DT- S. Paea- Oregon St
15. Mia- RB- M. Ingram- Bama
16. Jax- DE- R. Kerrigan- Purdue
17. Det (NE)- CB- B. Harris- Mia
18. SD- OT- N. Solder- Colorado
19. NYG- OT- T. Smith- USC
20. TB- DE- A. Clayborn- Iowa
21. KC- OLB- A. Ayers- UCLA
22. Ind- OT. D. Sherrod- Miss St
23. Phi- OG- M. Pouncey- Fla
24. NO- DE- C. Hayward- Ohio St
25. Sea- OT- A. Costanzo -BC
26. Bal- DE- JJ. Watt- Wisc
27. Atl- OLB- J. Houston- Georgia
28. Cle (NE)- WR- J. Baldwin- Pitt
29. NYJ- DE- A. Bailey- Mia
30. Chi- OT- G. Carimi- Wisc
31. Pit- DE- C. Jordan- Cal
32. GB- DT- D. Nevis- LSU