WR Separation Stats

[imahobgoblin]

Next Gen Stats is claiming that the Patriots' receivers last year ranked 3rd in the NFL with an average of 3.7 yards. Hmmmmm. Interesting.

 

[Deus Irae]

Seems like the perfect time to note that stats, especially without sufficient context, are often misleading.

 

[Pape]

Next Gen Stats is claiming that the Patriots' receivers last year ranked 3rd in the NFL with an average of 3.7 yards. Hmmmmm. Interesting.

Its not interesting... Its the difference between seeing a stat on a piece of paper not translating to what happened on the field...

There may have been space, but its because defenders were stacking the box, knowing that Cam couldnt throw the ball... separation didnt matter because even if they had ten yards on the defender, chances were that the Patriots would run the ball... Cam had 368 pass attempts in 15 games... Compare that to Sam Darnold, who had 364 pass attempts in 12 games...

 

[Bonzo]

Pretty sure it's per target, i.e. Cam pretty much only threw when guys were wide open

 

[Sicilian]

 

[TheRainMaker]

N'Keal Harry lead the team.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Its not interesting... Its the difference between seeing a stat on a piece of paper not translating to what happened on the field...

There may have been space, but its because defenders were stacking the box, knowing that Cam couldnt throw the ball... separation didnt matter because even if they had ten yards on the defender, chances were that the Patriots would run the ball... Cam had 368 pass attempts in 15 games... Compare that to Sam Darnold, who had 364 pass attempts in 12 games...

So whose fault is that? Wouldn't it be Cam's? So if he cannot hit open receivers last year, why will be able to hit them this year? Perhaps we could say the Covid won't affect him and the scheme is now known, but are we really sure?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I saw receivers open a good bit last year and the year before. But balls were not delivered to them. Why?

1.) newton did not have a good grasp of the offense and did not know where to look.

2.) Brady did not trust them.

 

[Pape]

So whose fault is that? Wouldn't it be Cam's? So if he cannot hit open receivers last year, why will be able to hit them this year? Perhaps we could say the Covid won't affect him and the scheme is now known, but are we really sure?

Of course it's Cams fault. No one feared the passing game. Covid schmovid... It wasn't the reason he couldn't pass to the right, threw the ball repeatedly into the ground... There is something not right in his shoulder ... I would expect more of the same this year if he's the starter.

 

[Triumph]

Seems like the perfect time to note that stats, especially without sufficient context, are often misleading.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Separation doesn’t mean diddly if the qb throws the ball 5 yards short most of the time.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It is a true statement when one says the 2019 and 2020 offenses of the NEP both sucked.

 

[Triumph]

It is a true statement when one says the 2019 and 2020 offenses of the NEP both sucked.

Yep

Brady had 610 attempts in 2020

Cam had 368 attempts. Cam could not afford to have bad throws with so few attempts.

 

[Sicilian]

This is one of those stats where, in an attempt to quantify a game that is often impossible to quantify, you take too many liberties. To have this stat you need to know the exact moment that a defender stops being responsible for a receiver, which is dependent on playcall and how the play is unfolding. When Harry goes free behind a defender because that defender sees Newton scrambling for a first down, is he gaining separation?

That said, I have no doubt guys were open a fair amount, because Cam did have his highest completion percentage. But that number is bolstered by a number of designed "safe" throws to try to simplify things for him. And also, his probably really wasn't broad strokes accuracy (aka, hitting receivers) but in fine point accuracy, like not making a RB take a step backwards on a screen and ruining the timing, or hitting one of those open receivers in stride so they can actually create YAC and get first downs. As bad as it looked when he chuck one into the dirt, the more frustrating times for me were when he would complete a pass but it was a little behind a receiver who was two yards short of a first. That guy had no chance to even lean forward for the line to gain.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Meyers (3.4), Byrd (3), and Harry (2.9) are well under that, so the passes to RBs are inflating the numbers (like Michel's TD - had no one within 7 or 8yds of him when he caught it). Cam was able to thread the needle to Edelman during the Seattle game, so definitely not him, either.