Winning The Division

[mgteich]

Anything can happen. However, we have tied or won the division every season since 2001. Also, we have never been swept the jets in this time frame.

If before the season started, I were told that we would be 6-4 at the end of 10, I would still have predicted at least a tie for the division. After all, I predicted 10-6 (or perhaps 11-5) and a division win.

Little has changed, except that we have an opportunity to be better than 6-4.

 

[jmt57]

History has shown that counting on tiebreakers is a dicey proposition.

Even if you assume only the division winner makes the playoffs out of the AFCW, it looks right now like one or more pretty good teams will not make it to the postseason from the AFC. The Pats, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Titans and Colts are all at least 5-3, but at the very minimum one of those teams will not be in the playoffs. And that's not taking into consideration a team from the AFC West - Oakland is 5-4 and San Diego is 4-5 - or the 4-4 Dolphins, Texans and Jaguars. With so many teams in the mix I can easily see somebody losing the division on a tiebreaker and then also missing the playoffs completely.

One concern I have is at what point the injuries become too much to overcome. Yes I remember the Super Bowl with Troy Brown in the secondary - but I also remember a Patriots team that had a league-leading 6-1 record halfway through the season; multiple injuries finally took their toll and that team finished 7-7.

 

[aluminum seats]

Pats, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Titans and Colts

Good point...which one doesn't make it?

 

[Gwedd]

Pats, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Titans and Colts

Good point...which one doesn't make it?

Right now, just looking at how they've played and what their remaining schedule looks like, Either the Ravens or the Steelers could easily miss out on the post-season.

 

[PatsSox363804]

Pats, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Titans and Colts

Good point...which one doesn't make it?

The ravens have 1 game left that I'd call a "gimme" and thats Carolina. The Steelers have Carolina and Buffalo. Based on that I'd say of those 2 I'd say Baltimore is more likely to miss plus the Pats have the tie breaker on Baltimore in a wild card scenario (and hopefully Pittsburgh come Sunday night.) The Titans have a rough slate of games as well.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Anything can happen. However, we have tied or won the division every season since 2001. Also, we have never been swept the jets in this time frame.

If before the season started, I were told that we would be 6-4 at the end of 10, I would still have predicted at least a tie for the division. After all, I predicted 10-6 (or perhaps 11-5) and a division win.

Little has changed, except that we have an opportunity to be better than 6-4.

Well said. I think this is the realist's approach. We have lots of moving pieces in an offense missing key players and led by a banged up Brady and in a Defense that's learning every week. I just want us to be competing for the Division at the end of December. Everything else is gravy.

 

[SVN]

Right now, just looking at how they've played and what their remaining schedule looks like, Either the Ravens or the Steelers could easily miss out on the post-season.

ravens schedule is easier now
they have @carolina,TB,Pit,@houston now ...

 

[SVN]

Pats, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Titans and Colts

Good point...which one doesn't make it?

titans vs colts twice and titans v houston could decide that division between colts and titans.
Pats are in a tough spot espcially with jets upcoming schedule of @clevland and @houston so even if they are a game ahead of us when then come to foxboro and we beat them, their conf loss record is better than ours. So unless we win the next two games, WC seems a possiblity where tiebrakers come into play between,balt,pitt,indy,tenn. So technically we want the steelers to win the division and anyone but the chargers not to win their division.

of course all this becomes much easier if we win our next 3 games.

 

[jmt57]

Remaining Schedules:

Pats: at Pit, Ind, at Det, NYJ, at Chi, GB, at Buf, Mia
Jets: at Cle, Hou, Cin, at NE, Mia, at Pit, at Chi, Buf
Indy: Cin, at NE, SD, Dal, at Ten, Jac, at Oak, Ten
Ten: at Mia, Was, at Hou, Jac, Ind, Hou, at KC, at Ind
Pitt: NE, Oak, at Buf, at Bal, Cin, NYJ, Car, at Cle
Balt: at Car, TB, Pit, at Hou, NO, at Cle, Cin

 

[TheComeback]

For anyone who's okay with the idea of losing any more games this season, this thread stands as a reminder for how risky that kind of thinking is. This is a good one, mg.

Don't get me wrong, I fully expect the Patriots to lose at least another game, and likely more than that. Having said that, I've noticed guys like Reiss saying it won't be the end of the season if we lose to [insert team here], but I disagree with that thinking completely.

The race for a playoff spot in the AFC has more contenders this year than any in recent memory. From here on out, we can't take any games for granted, and can't brush off any losses.

We could very well end up 12-4 and not even win the division if the Jets finish with the same record. And what if more than 2 non-divison winners finish 12-4? It's possible, though unlikely, that we could miss the playoffs with a 12-4 record. I am not at all confident that 11-5 or 10-6 can lock us, or any other AFC team, into the playoffs this year.

In this thread, we've mentioned the teams with the best records (Pitt, Tenn, Balt, Indy, NE, NYJ, and KC). But there are other potential competitors that are worth mentioning, too.

What if a team like Houston, Cleveland, Jax, Oakland, or even Miami makes a late run? With the number of teams I just mentioned, it's definitely not out of the question that at least one might pull it off and finish at 10-6 or better. In fact, one of those teams could very easily win their division, including Miami, creating quite a cluster**** in the race for the WC.

Every tick in the L column brings us a step closer to a result like 2008--finishing with a very good team, but missing the playoffs anyway.

We've got to keep our foot on the gas pedal, and put as much distance behind us as possible. It starts with Pittsburgh.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Remaining Schedules:

Pats: at Pit, Ind, at Det, NYJ, at Chi, GB, at Buf, Mia
Jets: at Cle, Hou, Cin, at NE, Mia, at Pit, at Chi, Buf
Indy: Cin, at NE, SD, Dal, at Ten, Jac, at Oak, Ten
Ten: at Mia, Was, at Hou, Jac, Ind, Hou, at KC, at Ind
Pitt: NE, Oak, at Buf, at Bal, Cin, NYJ, Car, at Cle
Balt: at Car, TB, Pit, at Hou, NO, at Cle, Cin

OK, added opponents' record and winning percentage. Can't vouch for 100% accuracy because it is, you know, Friday night:

Pats: at Pit (6-2), Ind (5-3), at Det (2-6), NYJ (6-2), at Chi (5-3), GB (6-3), at Buf (0-8), Mia (4-4): 34-31 .523
Jets: at Cle (3-5), Hou (4-4), Cin (2-6), at NE (6-2), Mia (4-4), at Pit (6-2), at Chi (5-3), Buf (0-8): 30-34 .469
Indy: Cin (2-6), at NE (6-2), SD (4-5), Dal (1-7), at Ten (5-3), Jac (4-4), at Oak (5-4), Ten (5-3): 32-36 .471
Ten: at Mia (4-4), Was (4-4), at Hou (4-4), Jac (4-4), Ind (5-3), Hou (4-4), at KC (5-3), at Ind (5-3): 35-29 .547
Pitt: NE (6-2), Oak (5-4), at Buf (0-8), at Bal (6-3), Cin (2-6), NYJ (6-2), Car (1-7), at Cle (3-5): 29-37 .460
Balt: at Car (1-7), TB (5-3), Pit (6-2), at Hou (4-4), NO (6-3), at Cle (3-5), Cin (6-3): 31-27 .534