Win over Pats will prove Brees is better than Brady

[Deus Irae]

I add more to my post on page 5, showing exactly WHY I don't think QB records are all that meaningful. Here's basically what the post said:

Since 2002 the Saints are 7-24 in games that Brees throws 2 or more picks and 9-17 when Brees doesn't throw a TD.
Since 2001 the Patriots are 11-11 in games that Brady throws 2 or more picks and 16-8 when Brady doesn't throw a TD. The defense is the difference.

While I'm not saying he is as good as Brady, he certainly is one of the best in the League. If I had to pick a franchise QB, I'd take him at #3 behind Brady and Manning.

I don't find this argument effective, though, because it fails to take into account surrounding circumstances. Just taking 2001 for an example.....

2001, four 2+ interception games for Brady:

A 4 pick game against Denver, which no team can expect to win.
A 2 pick game against the Rams, the Eventual Super Bowl runners up

A 2 pick game against Cleveland, just a 7-9 team with the #25 offense in the league.
A 2 pick game against Carolina, in a 38-6 win where the Picks were non factors against a 1 win team.

Just to bookend this, Brady's thrown 2 interceptions in only 1 game this season. That was the Tampa game, and I don't think anyone would try claiming that the Patriots only won that because the defense was the difference. You could go year by year and find the same sorts of things (See the Miami game in 2007 for another example).


Despite the hue and cry from coaches and media, sometimes a turnover isn't all that big a deal, and not all interceptions, or fumbles, are alike in impact.

 

[DaBruinz]

nice post, but brees was not with the saints in 2005 he was getting shoulder surgery, and I think the schedule argument is a wash, because you would have to break down all of those team, cant be done. 2006 saints playoffs, they were healthy and the defense was #11, 2007-2008 saints lost most of there players to injuries and payton hadnt started building depth to the team. 2009 saints we are still the most injured team in the NFL at this point, we have 12 on IR tied with Buffalo and Detroit in that category. but our depth is better this year. And no at this time Brees should not be considered better than Brady or Manning at this point

I believe it was 2003 or 2004 when the Pats set a league record in terms of games lost to injury by starters.. It might have been 2005.. Since then, only the Bills and Eagles have come close to the number of games lost to injury.

What people don't seem to understand is that this Patriots team is in a rebuilding mode for certain areas. Like LB, CB, and Safety. As such, that should be the Pats weakest link. And its proven to be, though they have been jobbed as well on a couple of occasions this year.

As for injuries, the Pats may not have as many people on IR, but how many of those 12 people are starters for the Saints? Also, the Pats have been without Matt Light, their starting LT since week 5. They've also had other injuries that haven't required people to go onto the IR, but they missed games. Like Wes Welker missing 2 games early in the season.

Injuries are something that every team has to deal with. It's good that the Saints have gotten some depth. I think it will be a great game and its the one game that I have been worried about since week 4.. I wasn't worried about the Colts game.. The Pats should have won that. Refs literally handed the game to Manning.

 

[sbpatfan]

Good lord, what's up with all the doucher Saint fans crawling out of the woodworks? The Jets and Dolphin fans don't even act this idiotic and they hate us.

 

[SyN65]

Uh...you might be able to argue that Bree's is playing better football THIS SEASON...but overall...no.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Also, kind of a follow up to my previous post on page 6, the Saints defense was ranked 26th in points allow in 2008 and 25th in 2007, so that argument about that Pats ranked 17th in 2005 while winning 10 games really isn't valid.

Between '07 and '08, the Saints had 12 games where they gave up 30+ points. The Pats gave up 30+ points only twice in '05. The Saints gave up 24.4 per game vs the Pats 21.1. It's a big enough difference to account for a swing of 2-3 games.

 

[IcyPatriot]

If I were a sports media person I would get a kick out of reading forums after I talked sh!t like that. Seriously ... this is what the media does ... so fans will talk about it. I don't bother caring anymore what they write ... none of them know sh!t anyways except how to talk and write sh!t.

 

[pherein]

I believe it was 2003 or 2004 when the Pats set a league record in terms of games lost to injury by starters.. It might have been 2005.. Since then, only the Bills and Eagles have come close to the number of games lost to injury.

What people don't seem to understand is that this Patriots team is in a rebuilding mode for certain areas. Like LB, CB, and Safety. As such, that should be the Pats weakest link. And its proven to be, though they have been jobbed as well on a couple of occasions this year.

As for injuries, the Pats may not have as many people on IR, but how many of those 12 people are starters for the Saints? Also, the Pats have been without Matt Light, their starting LT since week 5. They've also had other injuries that haven't required people to go onto the IR, but they missed games. Like Wes Welker missing 2 games early in the season.

Injuries are something that every team has to deal with. It's good that the Saints have gotten some depth. I think it will be a great game and its the one game that I have been worried about since week 4.. I wasn't worried about the Colts game.. The Pats should have won that. Refs literally handed the game to Manning.

all 12 are starters
13 Harper, Rod WR 6-0 209 24 1 Murray State
24 Torrence, Leigh CB 5-11 179 27 4 Stanford
35 Jones, Reggie CB 6-0 193 23 R Portland State
37 Vaughn, Chip S 6-2 221 24 R Wake Forest
44 Evans, Heath FB 6-0 250 30 9 Auburn
53 Simoneau, Mark LB 6-0 245 32 10 Kansas State
59 Arnoux, Stanley LB 6-0 232 23 R Wake Forest
70 Brown, Jammal T 6-6 313 28 5 Oklahoma
71 Clancy, Kendrick DT 6-1 305 31 10 Mississippi
83 Miller, Billy TE 6-3 252 32 10 Southern California
84 Woods, D'Juan WR 6-1 210 25 1 Oklahoma State
Campbell, Dan TE 6-5 265 33 11 Texas A&M

We also lost bush,greer,fujita,porter,bell,moore,ellis for 3-4 games this
year. So thats allot, but they manage.

I think BB understand how we rotate better, saints are big at putting fresh legs on the field
http://www.patriots.com/mediacenter/index.cfm?ac=videonewsdetail&pid=40555&pcid=155

I have really wanted this game for awhile its going to be a 4 quarter of some of the best ball this year. Playing the Patriots and showing them what we can do and hanging out with their fans in the Dome is going to be a real honor.

 

[Satchboogie3]

I don't find this argument effective, though, because it fails to take into account surrounding circumstances. Just taking 2001 for an example.....

2001, four 2+ interception games for Brady:

A 4 pick game against Denver, which no team can expect to win.
A 2 pick game against the Rams, the Eventual Super Bowl runners up

A 2 pick game against Cleveland, just a 7-9 team with the #25 offense in the league.
A 2 pick game against Carolina, in a 38-6 win where the Picks were non factors against a 1 win team.

Just to bookend this, Brady's thrown 2 interceptions in only 1 game this season. That was the Tampa game, and I don't think anyone would try claiming that the Patriots only won that because the defense was the difference. You could go year by year and find the same sorts of things (See the Miami game in 2007 for another example).


Despite the hue and cry from coaches and media, sometimes a turnover isn't all that big a deal, and not all interceptions, or fumbles, are alike in impact.

My point was simply that the Patriots can win with a subpar (or bad) game from Brady where as the Saints can't.

 

[pherein]

Uh...you might be able to argue that Bree's is playing better football THIS SEASON...but overall...no.

Brees has played pretty well for awhile now I think, but hes not Brady

 

[Nikolai]

I think we can close the book on this one. Even the rational Saints fan agrees, Brees is not Brady.

I think people are letting the flood of douchebag fans ruffle their feathers too much. Like others, I'm a bit surprised. Are there really that many morons in the Saints fan base?

 

[Deus Irae]

My point was simply that the Patriots can win with a subpar (or bad) game from Brady where as the Saints can't.

And my point was that it's not that simple. Brees can throw 2 picks against Tampa and still win.

 

[pherein]

And my point was that it's not that simple. Brees can throw 2 picks against Tampa and still win.

Miami has a better defense than the patriots but Miami does not have the coaching of the patriots or the offense. We get 4 turnovers and 21pts behind in this game we can not win it.

 

[ScottieC]

Brees has played pretty well for awhile now I think, but hes not Brady

No he's not. 4 Super Bowl appearances, 3 Wins, 2 MVP's, a league MVP, Multiple Pro Bowl appearances, Guaranteed lock for the HOF, Winning-est QB Percentage in League History Min. 100 games, Best Home winning percentage in NFL history, Longest winning streak in NFL history (x2), holds more record than we have time to discuss, 2nd best post season winning percentage in NFL History (2 More wins gets him the most ever - BTW), in the conversation for GOAT, and an ice cold winning machine.

He's better - but your guy is putting together a few nice seasons. Monday will be fun.

 

[ausbacker]

Miami has a better defense than the patriots but Miami does not have the coaching of the patriots or the offense. We get 4 turnovers and 21pts behind in this game we can not win it.

Not according to most ranking spectrums this season they don't.

You seem to be working in a best case scenario with most of your comments pherein. It's not often that every player in all the positions is going to play well on the same day.

 

[Deus Irae]

Miami has a better defense than the patriots but Miami does not have the coaching of the patriots or the offense. We get 4 turnovers and 21pts behind in this game we can not win it.

The Patriots are 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, and Miami is 27th. I'm not sold on the Patriots' defense, particularly against a strong running team, but I'm certainly confident in saying that it's better than Miami's defense.

Having said that, New England proved it could blow a lead against top talent, so I'm not as sure as you are that a 21 point lead means game over.

 

[Satchboogie3]

And my point was that it's not that simple. Brees can throw 2 picks against Tampa and still win.

... and so can't Brady. That's why I posted their entire career. I'm sure a sample size of 100+ games should be fine. It's a fair assessment because it's equal, Brady had some games where he through 3 TDs and 2 INTs and wasn't that bad and won... but so did Brees. The stark difference in record comes from the A. Terrible games and B. Games where the defense didn't step up. I also think the 0 TD games might be more meaningful.

I'm not saying it definitive, but it certainly shows that the other unit on the field makes a big difference.

 

[pherein]

Not according to most ranking spectrums this season they don't.

You seem to be working in a best case scenario with most of your comments pherein. It's not often that every player in all the positions is going to play well on the same day.

Well all you can go by is stats, saints have played 5 #5 defenses AT THE Time, when we played Miami they where the #1 rushing defense and #10 I think passing defense and were ranked #3 overall, Saints have a way of killing your defensive standing, as do the Pats.

I think the post was accurate, saints cant get 4 turnovers or get 21pts behind with the Pats they are better than Miami.

 

[Satchboogie3]

No he's not. 4 Super Bowl appearances, 3 Wins, 2 MVP's, a league MVP, Multiple Pro Bowl appearances, Guaranteed lock for the HOF, Winning-est QB Percentage in League History Min. 100 games, Best Home winning percentage in NFL history, Longest winning streak in NFL history (x2), holds more record than we have time to discuss, 2nd best post season winning percentage in NFL History (2 More wins gets him the most ever - BTW), in the conversation for GOAT, and an ice cold winning machine.

He's better - but your guy is putting together a few nice seasons. Monday will be fun.

Yeah. Bees is #3, but Manning and Brady are certainly better.

Here are some career averages:
Brees: 16 games- 3966 Yards, 64.3% comp, 7.3 Y/A, 26 TD, 14.8 INT, 4.8 TD%, 2.7 INT%, 90.7 QB Rating
Brady: 16 games- 3932 Yards, 63.3% Comp, 7.3 Y/A, 29 TD, 12.3 INT, 5.4 TD%, 2.3 INT%, 93.6 QB Rating

Pretty close, but Brady certainly has the edge.

As far as the playoffs, the fact that Patriots have had a defense makes a HUGE difference. Here are Brees' 3 career playoff games:

Round 1 2004 vs NYJ: 31 of 42 (73.8%), 319 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 101.2 QB Rating. Brees tied the game up on a 1 YD TD pass to Gates with 16 seconds left in the game. Jets went on to win it in overtime. Sure he could have won it in overtime, but that doesn't wipe away the good game he had and the game tying TD he threw at the end.

Round 1 2006 vs PHI: 20 of 32 (62.5%), 243 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 96.2 QB Rating. Saints win 27-24, Brees throws the go-ahead TD late in the 3rd Quarter.

Round 2 2006 vs CHI: 27 of 49 (55.1%), 354 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 83.2 QB Rating. Saints lose 39-14 because of 4 turn overs (3 fumbles). Brees could have played better, but it just wasn't a good team effort.

Brees has had success in the playoffs, his teams just can't pull out a win.

 

[Deus Irae]

... and so can't Brady. That's why I posted their entire career. I'm sure a sample size of 100+ games should be fine. It's a fair assessment because it's equal, Brady had some games where he through 3 TDs and 2 INTs and wasn't that bad and won... but so did Brees. The stark difference in record comes from the A. Terrible games and B. Games where the defense didn't step up. I also think the 0 TD games might be more meaningful.

I'm not saying it definitive, but it certainly shows that the other unit on the field makes a big difference.

But you're not even checking into the data, from what I can tell. I just went "First and last" and the argument fell apart. Let's split to the middle:

2009-2001 would give us 2005...

3 multiple interception games

Blowout win against Buffalo. Interceptions played no part in context of our discussion.
4 pick game against the Chiefs, resulting in a loss.

Close game against the Dolphins..... 2nd pick resulted led to a Miami touchdown. New England's offense responds with a touchdown of its own with 2:19 left to salt away the game.

 

[patsfan-1982]

Miami has a better defense than the patriots but Miami does not have the coaching of the patriots or the offense. We get 4 turnovers and 21pts behind in this game we can not win it.

the stats say the pats have one of the best defense's in the NFL

the only thing that the fish got on the pats is that they got 2 real passrusher's