Will Mac Jones be the starter after the Bye ?

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I stopped reading at Zappe has a strong arm. Lol

Arm strength is hard to evaluate. I can understand why people say he had a strong arm because he has good mechanics and throws a pretty tight spiraled, line drive pass from what I’ve observed on short and intermediate routes. However I haven’t seen many of the more challenging ones, and my understanding is scouts didn’t like his arm.

Personally I am pessimistic about him because of his height primarily, and arm strength is a secondary concern.

 

[Pats1971]

Points is the most important stat in football, points is how they determine wins and losses.

“Points per drive” is a better stat to isolate defense alone. But “total points allowed” shows competence in defense, also special teams and even offense a little bit. It shows total team competence.

From 2014-2016 Drew Brees led the NFL in passing and was tops in scoring and efficiency… his defense ranked 32nd in points allowed. The Saints won 7 games three years in a row. Tom Brady never dealt with that level of defense on the Patriots or Bucs… not close to it.

Brady consistently had better teams around him. That’s a fact.

Well not a fact, but again, what the offense does and how they run the game and circumstantial football means a lot more than anything. Example....Brees had a top 5 defense in 2020 in points allowed....how did that end? Tampa was 8th, they won the superbowl. Again, not taking anything else into account is just working numbers to try and diminish a player, which is probably what you are trying to do. But, I researched this to see how it worked only using Defenses and points allowed. Since 2005.

Leaders is points allowed
2005. bears
2006. Ravens
2007. Colts
2008. Steelers
2009. jets
2010. Steelers
2011. Steelers
2012. Seahawks
2013. Seahawks
2014. Seahawks
2015. Seahawks
2016. Patriots
2017. Vikings
2018. Bears
2019. Pats
2020. Rams
2021. Bills
2022. Niners

So thats like 17 or 18 years....how many of these teams that were number 1 in points allowed won the superbowl that year...
2 Steelers and Seattle. So not sure being first in points is really the answer. 2 out of 17 isnt great. Maybe its being good at other things too.

 

[Wozzy]

Well not a fact, but again, what the offense does and how they run the game and circumstantial football means a lot more than anything. Example....Brees had a top 5 defense in 2020 in points allowed....how did that end? Tampa was 8th, they won the superbowl. Again, not taking anything else into account is just working numbers to try and diminish a player, which is probably what you are trying to do. But, I researched this to see how it worked only using Defenses and points allowed. Since 2005.

Leaders is points allowed
2005. bears
2006. Ravens
2007. Colts
2008. Steelers
2009. jets
2010. Steelers
2011. Steelers
2012. Seahawks
2013. Seahawks
2014. Seahawks
2015. Seahawks
2016. Patriots
2017. Vikings
2018. Bears
2019. Pats
2020. Rams
2021. Bills
2022. Niners

So thats like 17 or 18 years....how many of these teams that were number 1 in points allowed won the superbowl that year...
2 Steelers and Seattle. So not sure being first in points is really the answer. 2 out of 17 isnt great. Maybe it’s being good at other things too.

Points (point differential) is the most important stat in football. That’s not up for interpretation.

 

[Pats1971]

Points (point differential) is the most important stat in football. That’s not up for interpretation.

Well wait....your chart used defense ppg. It didnt show point differential meaning the offense has to do something.....did you move the goal post on me?

 

[Wozzy]

Well wait....your chart used defense ppg. It didnt show point differential meaning the offense has to do something.....did you move the goal post on me?

No, I was very clear with what I wrote above.

“Points allowed” is more of a team stat but it still highlights defense more than any of the three phases. “Points per drive” isolates defense better.

A good example is the one you provided. In 2020 the Bucs D were 6th in points per drive, the Saints D were 5th.. they were pretty evenly matched. Conversely the Bucs O was one spot higher. The better team won that day.

Points is the most important stat in football. Until they start tallying wins and losses with some method other than point differential that will be true.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

A good example is the one you provided. In 2020 the Bucs D were 6th in points per drive, the Saints D were 5th.. they were pretty evenly matched. Conversely the Bucs O was one spot higher. The better team won that day.

“One spot higher” is often statistical noise. As you said, the teams were pretty even overall. The Saints beat the Bucs twice that season, including an annihilation. The Bucs won the playoff game primarily because Brees’s arm was falling off and the Bucs line finally gave Brady just enough protection against a pass rush that dominated them almost every other matchup.

 

[Wozzy]

“One spot higher” is often statistical noise. As you said, the teams were pretty even overall. The Saints beat the Bucs twice that season, including an annihilation. The Bucs won the playoff game primarily because Brees’s arm was falling off and the Bucs line finally gave Brady just enough protection against a pass rush that dominated them almost every other matchup.

Not exactly, even if I agree Brees was dinged up… the 2020 Bucs changed the way they played after they set an all-time NFL record versus the Saints in fewest rushing attempts in a single game… and they got slaughtered.

The very next game the Bucs set their season high in rushing yards. In the playoffs they led the entire postseason in rushing… in total and on a per game basis.

I don’t doubt this ^ was the big source of friction between TB and Arians that ultimately led to Bruce getting canned later.

In 2022 the Bucs ranked 1st in pass attempts and 32nd in rush attempts… so it’s pretty clear who was the driver of a more balanced offense… it was Bruce.

You can’t have the inmates run the asylum, even the most successful inmate of all-time.

 

[sb1]

The Patriots with Tom Brady are 15-9 in the playoffs when his defense allows 20+ points. No other QB is close to that mark.

That defense PPG chart means little. Brady a lot more often than not carried his defense when it mattered most. Fact.

 

[sb1]

Arm strength is hard to evaluate. I can understand why people say he had a strong arm because he has good mechanics and throws a pretty tight spiraled, line drive pass from what I’ve observed on short and intermediate routes. However I haven’t seen many of the more challenging ones, and my understanding is scouts didn’t like his arm.

Personally I am pessimistic about him because of his height primarily, and arm strength is a secondary concern.

True. I thought he had a poor senior bowl game where his arm limitations were on display especially on his last two passes with one picked. I'm sure that's why a guy with his college stats fell way down the board. Totally agree about his height. When he's trying to mess around with his own mechanics as he admitted himself it isn't going well for him.

I'd say that Browns game last year was a bit of an anomaly since a lot of his yardage came from YAC including the big one to Jonnu. That Lions game also wasn't any better than what Mac would have done IMO. 5 or 6 fourth down stops by the defense and he still didn't throw for 200 yards and only got 1 passing TD out of it. Imagine what Brady would do with that kind of opportunity. Obviously if we're comparing Mac to someone like Zappe the Pats are not in a good place QB wise.

 

[Pape]

The Patriots with Tom Brady are 15-9 in the playoffs when his defense allows 20+ points. No other QB is close to that mark.

That defense PPG chart means little. Brady a lot more often than not carried his defense when it mattered most. Fact.

There is a reason why his nickname is GOAT

 

[Wozzy]

The Patriots with Tom Brady are 15-9 in the playoffs when his defense allows 20+ points. No other QB is close to that mark.

That defense PPG chart means little. Brady a lot more often than not carried his defense when it mattered most. Fact.

The defensive rankings indicate good defenses. The points per drive prove this unequivocally.

In short, just so this thread stops getting derailed… BB is a coach not a player. Mac stinks, they need to replace Mac. Barring injury this defense would have been pretty darn good this season. Find a new QB and they can turn this team around quickly.

Also you and others had better hope BB doesn’t switch QB’s and that they don’t play really well. Because then suddenly the weapons and O-Line are going to magically look better and your prognostications that “Zappe/Grier suck also” will look pretty stupid.

 

[sb1]

The defensive rankings indicate good defenses. The points per drive prove this unequivocally.

Yes good defenses but his offenses were even better. 5th > 7th. So all of that is moot. And the playoff stat as I showed. When someone brings up the Brady carried by his defenses argument this trumps it every single time. Can't say it's a team game when the QB wins but then say it's all the QB's fault when he loses. It's either a team game where teams win and lose or it's not.

In short just so this thread stops getting derailed… BB is a coach not a player. Mac stinks, they need to replace Mac. Barring injury this defense would have been pretty darn good this season. Find a new QB and they can turn this team around quickly.

Also you and others had better hope BB doesn’t switch QB’s and that they don’t play really well. Because then suddenly the weapons and O-Line are going to magically get better and your prognostications that Zappe/Grier suck also” will look pretty stupid.

There's zero evidence to date that I could be wrong about all of that. The contrary is just wishful thinking based on absolutely nothing.
But if I'm wrong then I'm wrong shrug. I wouldn't hold my breath. I'm also starting to believe barring injury Mac will start the rest of the way.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Not exactly, even if I agree Brees was dinged up… the 2020 Bucs changed the way they played after they set an all-time NFL record versus the Saints in fewest rushing attempts in a single game… and they got slaughtered.

The very next game the Bucs set their season high in rushing yards. In the playoffs they led the entire postseason in rushing… in total and on a per game basis.

I don’t doubt this ^ was the big source of friction between TB and Arians that ultimately led to Bruce getting canned later.

In 2022 the Bucs ranked 1st in pass attempts and 32nd in rush attempts… so it’s pretty clear who was the driver of a more balanced offense… it was Bruce.

You can’t have the inmates run the asylum, even the most successful inmate of all-time.

Why would this be a source of friction? The Bucs won. Same thing in 2018 when the Patriots won with their power rushing emphasis after losing to the Dolphins and Steelers. They had him mic’d in SB when he exuberantly told the team to “run it up their asses” to kill the Rams.

You seem to be really off about Brady. He won SB MVP and was dominant in SB55. It wasn’t until after the 2021 season - not 2020 - when he soured on Arians due to Arians not putting in the work. It had nothing to do with run/pass balance and ego.

 

[ohiopatsfan]

BB may very well keep Mac as #1 after the bye. Zap is more mobile but still IMHO not an upgrade. Grier may be a serviceable #2. Cunningham is an interesting gadget player but not, at this point, a true NFL QB.

 

[Wozzy]

Yes good defenses but his offenses were even better. 5th > 7th. So all of that is moot. And the playoff stat as I showed. When someone brings up the Brady carried by his defenses argument this trumps it every single time. Can't say it's a team game when the QB wins but then say it's all the QB's fault when he loses.

You can’t fake points per drive allowed, and offense has nothing to do with it. BB is known as a defensive genius for good reason.

There's zero evidence to date that I could be wrong about all of that. The contrary is just wishful thinking based on absolutely nothing.
But if I'm wrong then I'm wrong shrug. I wouldn't hold my breath. I'm also starting to believe barring injury Mac will start the rest of the way.

Make sure you don’t disappear if Zappe/Grier get the nod and play really well… that’s what trolls do.

 

[Wozzy]

Why would this be a source of friction? The Bucs won. Same thing in 2018 when the Patriots won with their power rushing emphasis after losing to the Dolphins and Steelers. They had him mic’d in SB when he exuberantly told the team to “run it up their asses” to kill the Rams.

You seem to be really off about Brady. He won SB MVP and was dominant in SB55. It wasn’t until after the 2021 season - not 2020 - when he soured on Arians due to Arians not putting in the work. It had nothing to do with run/pass balance and ego.

The Bucs ran the ball in the 2020 postseason after they learned that being a pass only team was a recipe for losing.

Once Arians was gone they went back to being a pass only team… your “Arians not putting in the work” nonsense has zero evidence backing it.

 

[sb1]

You can’t fake points per drive allowed, and offense has nothing to do with it. BB is known as a defensive genius for good reason.

5th > 7th.
15-9 when his defense allows 20+ points in the playoffs. Says it all. Montana is the only other QB (barely) above .500 at 6-5. The other top QB's are below .500 some even way below .500 in that area.

There's more evidence to back me up if I say that Brady could have won rings with even mediocre defenses than there is for someone to say Bill's defense would have won with any average QB.

Make sure you don’t disappear if Zappe/Grier get the nod and play really well… that’s what trolls do.

I'm not the one sounding like other teams fans making excuses for why Brady won a lot. That doesn't make me the troll

 

[Nehalem]

The Bucs ran the ball in the 2020 postseason after they learned that being a pass only team was a recipe for losing.

Once Arians was gone they went back to being a pass only team… your “Arians not putting in the work” nonsense has zero evidence backing it.

The rushing ranks for attempts and #yards/att
2020 - 29th 4.1y/a (25th)
2021 - 31st 4.3y/a (15th)
2022 - 32nd 3.4y/a (32nd)

So there is very little difference in ranking in rush attempts for the Bucs between Arians/non-Arians. But there is a massive dropoff in yards/att.

 

[Guts]

The Bucs ran the ball in the 2020 postseason after they learned that being a pass only team was a recipe for losing.

Once Arians was gone they went back to being a pass only team… your “Arians not putting in the work” nonsense has zero evidence backing it.

Against Washington Tom had 381 Yards passing and no Bucs rusher passed the 100 yard mark
Same with the Saints game as that was more a defensive effort
In the NFCCG same thing no Bucs rushed had more than 60 yards
And in the Superbowl we'll the game was over by halftime after 3 passing touchdowns
It helped that they got a resemblance of a running game going but they were still mainly pass happy

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The Bucs ran the ball in the 2020 postseason after they learned that being a pass only team was a recipe for losing.

Once Arians was gone they went back to being a pass only team… your “Arians not putting in the work” nonsense has zero evidence backing it.

So initially you said you thought the Bucs running more led to friction with Brady and Arians in 2020. Now you bring up that the Bucs switched back to a pass heavy team in 2021. So why the friction? You make no sense.

You ignore reports about Brady being annoyed at Arians work ethic as “nonsense” and “zero evidence” and then counter with a batshit fan theory that disproves itself.