Will Bill Belichick break Don Shula's all time win record?

[VectorPrime]

Like I said a couple of months ago. I wish Shula was still alive and he saw BB break his record and that is what killed him

Going 19-0 might have done it.

 

[Chevy]

The math isn't far-fetched.

Let's say Belichick coaches until 2024. I don't know if he will, but that seems reasonable to me since it puts him at age 72.

That scenario gives him 62 games to close the 34 win gap to Shula: 11 remaining this season +17 +17 +17 = 62. (This doesn't include any postseason games they may participate in). They'd need to win just over half of those 62 games. In that scenario it'll be close but I'd lean towards 'yes'.

But that scenario only gives him until he's 72. If he extends his coaching window to 73-75 (I have no idea if he will, just thinking out loud), then the odds tilt much more in favor of Belichick, since they'd only need to average 6 wins per season. (This scenario is far from ideal, since it implies the team is not playing well -- that said, if Belichick breaks the record at 72, but wants to coach through 73-75, that's a different, much better possible outcome).

Then the arguments come - Shula did it with nearly half his time under the 14 game season, plus a 9 game strike season. BB had nothing but 16 and 17 games seasons! (/s)

 

[billdog3484]

Like I said a couple of months ago. I wish Shula was still alive and he saw BB break his record and that is what killed him

 

[Ivan]

If Brady doesn’t have a job until he no longer wants it then Bill sure as hell better not either.

Really? Who are you going to replace him with? Bill O’ Brien? Adam Gase? Eric Mancini?

Belichick is the greatest Coach/GM in NFL history, there is no replacement for him. But I can’t wait to see who you think they should replace him with? Probably Chad O’ Shea.

 

[Ivan]

Then the arguments come - Shula did it with nearly half his time under the 14 game season, plus a 9 game strike season. BB had nothing but 16 and 17 games seasons! (/s)

Shula did it before free agency and a salary cap, when Dynasties were commonplace, the 99’s Cowboys and the Patriots are the only franchises to accomplish that since 93’, and the Patriots ran for 20 years.

 

[Ivan]

If Brady doesn’t have a job until he no longer wants it then Bill sure as hell better not either.

In case you haven’t realized it, it is much harder to build another championship contender after a dynasty ends than it is to pick a team loaded with talent to go finish your career with. I’m as big a Brady fan as there is, a and I was happy to see both he and Gronk get another ring, but the job Belichick has takes much more time and work than it took Brady to change teams. And Belichick isn’t looking to just get to a WC game this season or next, he’s trying to rebuild to make them a serious contender every season, and that takes time and many good decisions to create. I think they have their franchise QB, and a number of pieces in place, but they still have a lot of work to do.

 

[oldrover]

Will Bill Belichick break Don Shula's all time win record?​

 

[captain stone]

No. Feckin. Way.

 

[Pats1971]

In case you haven’t realized it, it is much harder to build another championship contender after a dynasty ends than it is to pick a team loaded with talent to go finish your career with. I’m as big a Brady fan as there is, a and I was happy to see both he and Gronk get another ring, but the job Belichick has takes much more time and work than it took Brady to change teams. And Belichick isn’t looking to just get to a WC game this season or next, he’s trying to rebuild to make them a serious contender every season, and that takes time and many good decisions to create. I think they have their franchise QB, and a number of pieces in place, but they still have a lot of work to do.

Its also easier when you have a goat QB, as we see now. Also, no a QB who has been on one team for 19 years and goes to a 7-9 team who has not won a playoff game in 18 years and wins the superbowl is a bigger feat. That would be like Bill going to the Jets last year and they win the superbowl.

 

[Rob0729]

If he wants it, he will get it. Let's say the worst happens that he does last long here and say the Pats go 6-11 this year and 5-12 next and the Pats fire him. Another team will definitely pick him up if he wants to continue coaching. That should buy him at least three or four more years. He can last in the NFL long enough to catch Shula if he wishes to coach that long even if he never returns to greatness.

 

[Pats1971]

If he wants it, he will get it. Let's say the worst happens that he does last long here and say the Pats go 6-11 this year and 5-12 next and the Pats fire him. Another team will definitely pick him up if he wants to continue coaching. That should buy him at least three or four more years. He can last in the NFL long enough to catch Shula if he wishes to coach that long even if he never returns to greatness.

I dont think he will get fired, I am just not sure he is going to want to keep coaching into his 70's and not winning and having the media rake him over the coals over and over. If he leaves I doubt it would be to coach elsewhere.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

You’re not only talking about winning championships in the near future

I'm sorry if that will disappoint you

you’re saying how it’s kind of boring to win them with home field advantage

I'm stating that the regular season all time wins record is not affected by playoff wins (or titles)

And, it would be nice for Belichick to go out on top

The ****?! It appears that we’re more likely to not make the playoffs period than win a super bowl in the next few years.

...what was said at this stage in 2001...

 

[venecol]

At a .457% win rate he'll need 101 games to catch Shula. That puts him at 75 years old. I don't see it.

 

[Tottie]

I don't see him getting fired this year but if he has another bad year next year I'm sure they will have conversations. With that in mind what will it take to keep his job? 11 wins a year? I think that's pretty fair with the new 17 and soon 18 game schedule. It's not out of the realm of possibility. They could still win 7 this year and then he'd have to go 11 the next and then start a good 5 year stretch. I think it will be up to Jonathan. Bobby had his time I could see him let his son take over.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

If he wants it, he will get it. Let's say the worst happens that he does last long here and say the Pats go 6-11 this year and 5-12 next and the Pats fire him. Another team will definitely pick him up if he wants to continue coaching. That should buy him at least three or four more years. He can last in the NFL long enough to catch Shula if he wishes to coach that long even if he never returns to greatness.

This, even if he never gets back to being a 12 win coach, teams will give him chances if he leaves the Pats

 

[PatsFanSince74]

From everything we can know about BB, it's pretty safe to say that he'd want to have the all time record for wins.

But he already holds the most important records for an HC, which it's doubtful anyone will ever break: Conference Championships, 9; SB appearances, 9; SB wins, 6; NFL Championships, 6; Playoff wins, 31 (and more Division Championships than I have time to count).

So, my answer is "Yeah, maybe he'll stick around if he thinks he can top Shula (lots of variables in play there as others have observed), but he really doesn't have to." He's already the greatest HC in NFL history.

RLKAG

 

[Pats1971]

I'm sorry if that will disappoint you

I'm stating that the regular season all time wins record is not affected by playoff wins (or titles)

And, it would be nice for Belichick to go out on top

...what was said at this stage in 2001...

2001 has zero to do with 2021. Like literally absolutely nothing. Browns were a powerhouse in the 60's...does that mean they will be this season? I am not sure why fans think if something happened 20 years ago with an entirely different era and team that it will somehow happen now.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

2001 has zero to do with 2021. Like literally absolutely nothing. Browns were a powerhouse in the 60's...does that mean they will be this season? I am not sure why fans think if something happened 20 years ago with an entirely different era and team that it will somehow happen now.

It's either misplaced hubris, or them really undervalued Brady's contributions to the team to think that they can easily turn it around and "the dynasty can continue".

 

[Pats1971]

It's either misplaced hubris, or them really undervalued Brady's contributions to the team to think that they can easily turn it around and "the dynasty can continue".

It seems popular here lately. Oh we were 1-2 in 2001 and we won the superbowl so that means we will this year!!! Hey we had that come back vs the texans and we had a comeback vs the chargers 20 years ago, so that means we win the superbowl!. Yeah never got it.
In 2000 we were 2-4 at this point, so that means we will go 5-11! Yeah see it doesnt work.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

It's either misplaced hubris, or them really undervalued Brady's contributions to the team to think that they can easily turn it around and "the dynasty can continue".

'easily'?

It seems popular here lately. Oh we were 1-2 in 2001 and we won the superbowl so that means we will this year!!! Hey we had that come back vs the texans and we had a comeback vs the chargers 20 years ago, so that means we win the superbowl!. Yeah never got it.
In 2000 we were 2-4 at this point, so that means we will go 5-11! Yeah see it doesnt work.

I think we should all be careful. I didn't know Shaughnessyitis is contagious.

2001 has zero to do with 2021. Like literally absolutely nothing. Browns were a powerhouse in the 60's...does that mean they will be this season? I am not sure why fans think if something happened 20 years ago with an entirely different era and team that it will somehow happen now.

Hmmmmm...

- Team with first losing record in a while the previous season, with mostly low expectations
- Lots of veterans with playoff and Super Bowl experience
- Coaching staff with experience under the Parcells umbrella
- Young quarterback in first stint as starter
- Several good veteran acquisitions added to roster
- Early season adversity with some ugly losses
- Several other teams in both conferences with impressive records so far

This team has a long way to go. Further than twenty years ago. But regardless of this year's final record, some absolutely critical experience and development is taking place, which should bode well for the long term. Brady wasn't going to play forever...at least not for us...

At this point, there are lots of encouraging signs for this year, 2022, 2023 and beyond. It starts at the top; ownership is secure and Belichick, while obviously not perfect, is preferable to any other coach I can think of.