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Will BenJarvus Green-Ellis Make the 53?

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Will BenJarvus Green-Ellis Make the 53?

  • Yes

    Votes: 188 82.1%
  • No

    Votes: 41 17.9%

  • Total voters
    229
  • Poll closed .
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I do not think in my entire life I have a statistic utilizes that answers a question better than what you just did.
This could be the most compelling argument ever on this board; that is that Maroney absolutely does not have a 'high rish, high reward' running style or that his ypc is skewed higher because of many longer runs, many short runs, and few 'good' runs.
Congratulations. This is probably the most lopsided argument victory I have ever seen on this board.


Congratulations, Maroney and The Pats were complete successes in 2007 in your eyes. It's proven!
 
What part of 3.7ypc is good yardage?

Well, it's exactly what Sammy Morris averaged his first season and everyone seems sold on him...

Morris runs yds TD avg

2000 23 BUF RB 45 12 8 93 341 5 32 3.7

BJGE
2008 23 NWE 42 9 3 74 275 5 15 3.7
 
Maroney had Brady throwing the ball and had a cheesey 70 yard run against Miami which skewed it.
 
I do not think in my entire life I have a statistic utilizes that answers a question better than what you just did.
This could be the most compelling argument ever on this board; that is that Maroney absolutely does not have a 'high rish, high reward' running style or that his ypc is skewed higher because of many longer runs, many short runs, and few 'good' runs.
Congratulations. This is probably the most lopsided argument victory I have ever seen on this board.

Football Outsiders is a legitimately awesome resource, and I can't encourage people to check it out enough. You'll find out a lot of things that will surprise you, especially about running backs. For example, I'm looking at 2008 right now, and am seeing some really interesting things:

Sammy Morris had an extremely efficient year. He only had 156 carries, so his final stats weren't great, but he was solid. Not nearly as good as Maroney in 2007, though, even after you perform situational adjustments, but he was good.

I wish Kevin Faulk had gotten 20 more carries, just so that he could have met the minimum. His 46.5% DVOA is comically good- it would have put him at #1 in the league by a mile. Just quantifies what we Pats fans already know: That Faulk, in spite of his limited touches, is actually one of the most indispensable players in our (or any) offense- every touch he gets has a tangible impact that contributes significantly to the Pats winning the game.

Tomlinson and Peterson both had negative DVOAs last year, and pretty average success rates. Their yard and touchdown totals were high because of occasional long runs and a ton of rushing attempts, but they weren't terribly efficient runners. Tomlinson, Turner, and Peterson are all overrated.

DeAngelo Williams was out-of-this-world good. Favorable schedule had a little to do with it, but it was mostly him.

Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs were both remarkably efficient, combining to form a rushing attack that was even better than most realized. Their stats were skewed down because they played a bunch of good defenses, too- they're just a scary combo.

BJGE didn't get enough touches to have a measured success rate, but his DVOA came in at 6.7%, which is respectable. It's above league-average, which is impressive in its own right, but substantially below Faulk, Jordan, and Morris.

DeShaun Foster, in his 76 carries, continued his longstanding reign as probably the most overrated RB in recent football history. He's a legitimately bad RB who, for some reason, people think is pretty good.

In the receiving game, Faulk, MJD and Forte all combined quantity of touches with quality in a way that put them head-and-shoulders above everyone else. Washington, Westbrook, Bush, Gore, Tomlinson, Barber, Rhodes, Jackson and Dunn all had a lot of balls thrown to them, but weren't nearly as effective as the top three. Some were even outright inefficient.
Sproles, despite catching less than half as many passes thrown his way, was ridiculously effective when he did. He's going to catch a ton of passes this year, at Tomlinson's expense.
 
Maroney had Brady throwing the ball and had a cheesey 70 yard run against Miami which skewed it.

It was 60 yards, and considering that that got spread out over 250 carries, the impact doesn't even come close to explaining the gap between them.
 
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Congratulations, Maroney and The Pats were complete successes in 2007 in your eyes. It's proven!

Probably the most blatant and dumb straw man I've ever seen.

So, did you read the link, or are you just going to hope that everyone forgets how thoroughly your argument just got eviscerated?

You guys complain endlessly about how stats are skewed and don't catch the little things, which is true of traditional stats. So true, in fact, that some really smart people went and figured out advanced statistics that do capture the little things, and do it very, very well (Football Outsiders considers Kevin Faulk, for example, to be an absolutely phenomenal RB for his role- he knocks their efficiency stats out of the park). These advanced stats happen to conclude that yes, Maroney is also a pretty good RB in his own right, yet for some reason you guys just can't come to terms with it. Honestly, what do you have against Maroney?

So after complaining on and on about how stats aren't capturing what's really going on, I show you some stats that DO capture that stuff, and what do you do? You all completely ignore them, because they don't back up your assumptions. Seriously, I don't get why people are so averse to being wrong that they'd rather just steadfastly plant themselves in a state of denial. I'm wrong all the time, but less now than I used to be, because I learned a lot of places where I was making incorrect assumptions, and then I stopped making them. For example:

I used to think that Kevin Faulk was overrated by homer fans. I was wrong
I used to think that Randy Moss was overrated by just about everyone. I was wrong
I used to think that Welker was overrated because he was basically the WR equivalent of a slap hitter. I was wrong.
I used to think that Bledsoe was underrated and Brady was overrated by people who care only to make judgments based on small sample sizes. I was wrong on both counts.

Seriously, there's no point in even engaging in debate if you can't admit when you're wrong. At that point, it just becomes a matter of who can shout everyone else down, which accomplishes absolutely nothing. Being proven wrong is actually pretty cool, because it's a chance to learn something, adapt, and come away from a debate with a greater understanding than you had when you entered into it.

And you will rarely, if ever, find a more conclusive argument than the one that I just made that Maroney is an efficient and effective RB who is far from the hit-or-miss type that you think he is. If you can look at that mountain of facts and still insist that you're right, then you're just hopeless. You'll never learn anything, because learning requires you to admit that you don't already know everything to begin with.
 
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Well we should receive some early indications tomorrow night. If we see BJGE get extended reps tomorrow night then we know BB is leaning towards 4 RBs.
 
I'm half expecting the mods to lump any and all RB threads into one giant lump since they all invariably end up talking about Maroney.
 
99 75%
33 25% The people have voted, and they believe it is time for a change!

I think the evidence is pretty clear that many, many of the posters on this forum are... not the types I would listen to for advice about football.
 
Congratulations, Maroney and The Pats were complete successes in 2007 in your eyes. It's proven!

THAT is your conclusion? What was proven was that your opinion that Maroney's game is made of a lot of short runs and a lot of long runs is completely incorrect.
As far as your statement in this post, they were closer to that, less than 2 minutes, than any team has ever been.
Apparently Maroney was supposed to play defense on that drive?
 
Stats don't tell a whole story. All you need to do is watch Maroney on a run play.
 
Obviously, they should have tried harder to establish the run. It seems that they did try somewhat. After an 8 yd reception in the second quarter, they had a second and 2

1,-2 (no first down) 0,-3 [halftime]. In the third quarter they alternated between 7,9,4 gains each followed by -2, 0, 2.

Then they gave up, running only once in the fourth. Oh well, it sure wasn't a high scoring game. I don't know if they really tried to establish the run or not. They didn't run very many times, considering the giants were just teeing off on Brady.

Let me see if I understand your point.
When Maroney gets tackled for a 2 yard loss, that is his fault.
When the most prolific, passing offense in NFL history decides to throw a lot, that is because they secetly distrust Maroney.
Failing to convert from 2nd and 2 is does not depend on blocking, it was Maroney fault and his value as a RB can be summed up by those 2 plays. Further, it isnt necessary to actually watch the plays and see whether Maroney ignore the blocking scheme, or whether an unblocked DL met him when he received the handoff or anything else. Maroney was called on to run the ball on that play so he is at fault, no matter what.
Finally, it is Maroneys fault that in your opinion the Giants were successful rushing the passer becuase the offensive play calling didnt give the ball to Maroney enough.
WOW
 
Stats don't tell a whole story. All you need to do is watch Maroney on a run play.

And understand what you are watching. That is my point.
 
Let me see if I understand your point.
When Maroney gets tackled for a 2 yard loss, that is his fault.
When the most prolific, passing offense in NFL history decides to throw a lot, that is because they secetly distrust Maroney.
Failing to convert from 2nd and 2 is does not depend on blocking, it was Maroney fault and his value as a RB can be summed up by those 2 plays. Further, it isnt necessary to actually watch the plays and see whether Maroney ignore the blocking scheme, or whether an unblocked DL met him when he received the handoff or anything else. Maroney was called on to run the ball on that play so he is at fault, no matter what.
Finally, it is Maroneys fault that in your opinion the Giants were successful rushing the passer becuase the offensive play calling didnt give the ball to Maroney enough.
WOW

You're making up your own discussion and you're still not doing that well.

Kind of like those great arguments where we'd never draft a linebacker high or we wouldn't acquire a pass rusher because we could do it with the "scheme".
 
There are a few things that could have turned that around. Our defense near the end could have been better.

The greatest high flying offense ever? Not in that game, it was very tough going and their pass rush was just gaining confidence.

I'll put it this way, we managed to derail at least two of the top passing offenses in the Rams and Colts. Our strategy? Stuff the run, make them one dimensional. Knowing they had to pass gave us all sorts of advantages in turnovers and rushing.

Could we have hit a big pass, made a big play on D in thew bowl? Sure.

I do believe that establishing the run would let us throw the rhythm of the rush off, beat on the pass rushers and force them to play the run opening up passing opportunities.

Pretty basic football.

By the way, the basis of your point is wrong.
Our strategy vs the Rams was not to 'stuff the run' and make them one-dimensional. It was to hit the WRs, hit Faulk whereever he went, throw off the timing of the passing game.
Our defending of the Colts has never, ever been based on stuffing the run. In fact, we play nickel as a base against them.
Again, you are assuming things that aren't necessarily accurate. Making teams one-dimensional by taking away the run is one aspect of playing defense, not the only.
BBs HOF game plan vs the Bills high-powered offense started with convincing his defenders that they needed to allow 100 rushing yards to Thurman Thomas and they would win.
The problem we en****ered in that game was that our OL couldnt block their DL. That held true on running plays and passing plays. They didnt take anytihng away to make us one-dimensional, they physically beat our OL in individual battles. I think given that dynamic, I would have to agree with wanting the ball in Tom Bradys hands.
 
99 75%
33 25% The people have voted, and they believe it is time for a change!

Except there is only one vote that count and he won't make it on this board. He will be making it in his office in Foxboro.
 
You're making up your own discussion and you're still not doing that well.

Kind of like those great arguments where we'd never draft a linebacker high or we wouldn't acquire a pass rusher because we could do it with the "scheme".

I am summarizing the extent of your argument.
Show me where I said we would NEVER draft a LB high, or we wouldn't acquire a pass rusher? Now you are making things up.
 
Stats don't tell a whole story. All you need to do is watch Maroney on a run play.

The Earth is 6,000 years old! All you have to do is read the Bible!
 
It is agreed then.

Maroney and BJGE will both make the team. BJGE will be noted for his hard nosed ability to get tough yard and not go down easily. Maroney will heretofore, never run up the middle, but will be used instead as a third down back.

Now, what to do with Fred Taylor and Morris. One of them may end up being chopped. Hard to cut Taylor given that he just signed...looks like Morris may be cut.
 
By the way, the basis of your point is wrong.
Our strategy vs the Rams was not to 'stuff the run' and make them one-dimensional. It was to hit the WRs, hit Faulk whereever he went, throw off the timing of the passing game.
Our defending of the Colts has never, ever been based on stuffing the run. In fact, we play nickel as a base against them.
Again, you are assuming things that aren't necessarily accurate. Making teams one-dimensional by taking away the run is one aspect of playing defense, not the only.
BBs HOF game plan vs the Bills high-powered offense started with convincing his defenders that they needed to allow 100 rushing yards to Thurman Thomas and they would win.
The problem we en****ered in that game was that our OL couldnt block their DL. That held true on running plays and passing plays. They didnt take anytihng away to make us one-dimensional, they physically beat our OL in individual battles. I think given that dynamic, I would have to agree with wanting the ball in Tom Bradys hands.

The Rams didn't run the ball. What is your point? It was really about the Rams strategy now wasn't it?
 
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