Which UDFA's Do You Have As More Than 50% Likely To Make The 53?

[ctpatsfan77]

Could it be contract related?

Can a UDFA get more than a draft pick?

Maybe for cap reasons and precedent you don’t want to overpay a late draft pick.

Of course, it was suggested that the reason they drafted Ashby was to avoid a bidding war.

Yes and no. To take the second bolded point first:

Each draft pick has a specific contract value associated with that pick; by day 3, the only difference between contracts is the size of the signing bonus. In the seventh round this year, the top pick (DAL's Jay Toia) got ~$153K, while the picks after the 32nd (both Ashby and Minor) got ~$102K.

As to the first point:

It happens, but not often. The main reason it doesn't happen often is that UDFA guarantees mean part of the salary they would receive is guaranteed, but that's not on top of their salaries. For example, Efton Chism III was prized enough that the Patriots gave him a $25K signing bonus and guaranteed 100% of his UDFA salary. That means that someone will be paying him that $234K. If he ends up somewhere else in the league, that team does; if he ends up here (or nowhere), NE pays that money. If he's good enough that he makes the 53, that counts toward the $234K guarantee as well. So, for example, if both he and Ashby make the 53 this year, Ashby will make more than Chism, because Ashby got a $102K signing bonus. [OTOH, if they somehow both end up out of football after TC, Chism will get ~$260K to Ashby's ~$102K.] Only a small percentage of UDFAs get more than a 7th rounder guaranteed, but there are others besides Chism.

OTOH, the main reason it does sometimes happen in the long run is that UDFA contracts only run three years rather than four. So, for example, let's say Chism performs well. The worst case scenario would be that he plays out his UDFA contract and then gets an RFA deal in his fourth year. If he got and played on the "right of first refusal" tender in 2028, that would be on the order of $4M, versus the ~$1.25M that Ashby is slated to get in 2028.

 

[TomPatriot]

After watching this i don't know how Conley doesn't make it.

Looks like he needs a little work on feet, pad level and strength. I like the PP though. He looks like a better athlete than I imagined.

 

[Bill Lee]

I think there's a better than 50% chance one UDFA makes the week 1 roster. Maybe even 2.

To call any individual UDFA over 50% (or 98% as one post suggests) is a sign the darkest days of the off-seasonpocalypse are taking a serious toll on some people's minds.

It's been interesting to watch the off-season hype roll from FA to the draft to UDFA.

I can kinda see it for FA, these are players we've seen perform in the NFL and there is large amounts of money involved.

I can kinda see it for the draft, these are players we've seen perform in college, top level picks have a strong chance to be on our teams, it's a strong dose of hopium all around.

I can't really see it for UDFA. These are players that had 6 times 32 = 192 chances (plus compensation picks) to get picked, but didn't.

If someone does make it against the odds, good for them, but really once you're on the team where you get drafted doesn't matter much.

TFB was a sixth rounder who we kept over the first overall pick in the draft and it worked out OK for us.

All in all a tempest in a teapot, says I.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Could it be contract related?

Can a UDFA get more than a draft pick?

Maybe for cap reasons and precedent you don’t want to overpay a late draft pick.

Of course, it was suggested that the reason they drafted Ashby was to avoid a bidding war.

I'm not sure, but I remember Edelman saying it was more advantageous to be an UDFA than to be drafted in the seventh round. So it may not be that they preferred Minor to Larison. Perhaps they had a word with Larison's agent and they agreed not to draft him, on the understanding that he would choose to come to the Pats in free agency.

 

[Bill Lee]

Guys, it's a multiple choice poll, so there's no excuse for RLKAG not being 100%!!!

 

[JayNM]

Guys, it's a multiple choice poll, so there's no excuse for RLKAG not being 100%!!!

This joke needs to go

 

[Huckleberry1]

Could it be contract related?

Can a UDFA get more than a draft pick?

Maybe for cap reasons and precedent you don’t want to overpay a late draft pick.

Of course, it was suggested that the reason they drafted Ashby was to avoid a bidding war.

I don’t know, but I have to admit that I was puzzled by it as well. I get why Chism wasn’t drafted, his 40 time makes him a serious outlier by NFL standards, but I have no idea why Larison wasn’t drafted. It was really clear even before the draft just how talented he is, that’s why so many here were really happy when they managed to get him as a UDFA, and it really didnt make sense to me that Vrabel was targeting him before the draft and still took Bryant, and especially Minor. They must have had serious confidence no one was going to draft him, but I would have taken him instead of hoping he would be there.

 

[The Gr8est]

I don’t know, but I have to admit that I was puzzled by it as well. I get why Chism wasn’t drafted, his 40 time makes him a serious outlier by NFL standards, but I have no idea why Larison wasn’t drafted. It was really clear even before the draft just how talented he is. That’s why so many here were really happy when they managed to get home a UDFA, and it really doesn’t make sense to me that Vrabel was targeting him before the draft and still took Bryant, and especially Minor. They must have had serious confidence no one was going to draft him, but I would have taken him instead of hoping he would be there.

Bryant seems like a decent gamble.

Minor was a mystery.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Bryant seems like a decent gamble.

Minor was a mystery.

I agree, I don’t see any way that Minor makes this team, and I think Larison is a lock to make it.

 

[rochrist]

That implies Vrabel did something similar with Chism. I’m already expecting Larison to make the roster. Wondering if this implies Chism is also a good bet? Would he make it through to the PS or would some other team poach him first?

They gave him a 3 year contract with $234,000 guaranteed and a $25,000 signing bonus. So, they wanted him badly. They outbid six other teams.

 

[Schmo]

Concerning Pene, the international roster exemption only applies to the 90 man offseason roster and not the 53, correct?

 

[Jim Beankie]

I'm releasing some Chism in a good way just thinking about all these UDFAs...

 

[JohnJH]

Larison, (Lampe if Josh wants a true FB), Dippre, and Conley. Possibly Chism if he really balls-out.

 

[mgteich]

Could it be contract related?

Can a UDFA get more than a draft pick?

Maybe for cap reasons and precedent you don’t want to overpay a late draft pick.

Of course, it was suggested that the reason they drafted Ashby was to avoid a bidding war.

I understand the snapper and the kicker. These are highly valued players at their positions.

 

[mgteich]

They gave him a 3 year contract with $234,000 guaranteed and a $25,000 signing bonus. So, they wanted him badly. They outbid six other teams.

What was the advantage of not drafting him with our last draft pick?

 

[Toofy]

I agree, I don’t see any way that Minor makes this team, and I think Larison is a lock to make it.

There is a very very very minor chance that minor makes the team....