Wilfork and his future

[mgteich]

Another thought

Wilfork would not have been worth $7.5M even if he didn't injure his achilles.

 

[manxman2601]

Ok, so we can agree that Wilfork will be 33 years old. We can also agree that no evidence has been presented to demonstrate that Wilfork will be his 2011 self (regardless if you're claiming that to be true or not).

As to your point about Achilles injuries, I think I found the article where you gathered your evidence on coming back from achilles injuries. Here are some interesting facts from the article as well:


"The average age of a player sustaining a rupture was 29, with an average career before injury spanning six years.

Furthermore, in the reviewed 21 NFL skill players who returned to play, there were significant decreases in games played per season (11.67 games per year pre-injury versus 6.17 games per year postinjury) when averaged over the three seasons before the injury and the three seasons after the injury.3 There were also decreases averaging nearly 50% in power ratings of the returning players for the three seasons after the injury compared to the three seasons before the injury."


Return to football after Achilles tendon rupture | Lower Extremity Review Magazine


I think this evidence clearly suggests that the "older than 29 years old" Wilfork is more likely to miss games and play at a diminished level than play consistently and at a higher level after his achilles injury.

Wilfork being overweight is also a fact. I see no evidence to suggest that will change given his weight history and his current condition.

The very fact that the starting level is 11.67 games shows that a number of non-starters are involved in that calculation and that means that teams would be a lot less patient awaiting their return which would skew these figures. But nevertheless, 66% of players return which is the opposite of "most don't come back".

Wilfork being overweight is also a fact.

I'd like to know. how much does he weigh right now? I presume you mean compared to his normal playing weight but there you're making a subjective observation, not reporting a fact.

Maybe Wilfork doesn't make it back, I have a suspicion he won't, but if he does he warrants consideration of a renegotiated contract which, despite your straw men assertions, is all I've ever said. I've not said he'll return to 2011 levels or anything like that, I've not said his current contract should be adhered too and I've not said he absolutely shouldn't be released. All I've said is that the issue warrants more consideration than you are giving it.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Did those players play inthe line, or WR or RB, CB safety?

It would make quite a difference, I'd say.

He plays a position standing in the middle of the line to a large extent.


Wow, there's an incisive logical statement.

I can't imagine how a DT who gets hit and pushes up against other 300+ pound men every play on defense would perform at a higher rate than a CB or RB who suffers the same injury.

Clearly, achilles injuries are career threatening and with Vince's weight and advanced age, it makes it even more likely that he will not perform at a high level and miss even more games due to further injuries.

 

[manxman2601]

There were also decreases averaging nearly 50% in power ratings of the returning players for the three seasons after the injury compared to the three seasons before the injury."

Did those players play inthe line, or WR or RB, CB safety?

It would make quite a difference, I'd say.

He plays a position standing in the middle of the line to a large extent.


Wow, there's an incisive logical statement.

Just so we're clear, the condition for determining the "power rating" used by this report to determine how well someone comes back from the injury is "tackles and interceptions for a defensive player." That's not all that Vince's game is.

Nevertheless, a comeback will be tough regardless of the position he plays.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

The very fact that the starting level is 11.67 games shows that a number of non-starters are involved in that calculation and that means that teams would be a lot less patient awaiting their return which would skew these figures. But nevertheless, 66% of players return which is the opposite of "most don't come back".



I'd like to know. how much does he weigh right now? I presume you mean compared to his normal playing weight but there you're making a subjective observation, not reporting a fact.

Maybe Wilfork doesn't make it back, I have a suspicion he won't, but if he does he warrants consideration of a renegotiated contract which, despite your straw men assertions, is all I've ever said. I've not said he'll return to 2011 levels or anything like that, I've not said his current contract should be adhered too and I've not said he absolutely shouldn't be released. All I've said is that the issue warrants more consideration than you are giving it.

Ok, let's focus on your argument specifically. From what I'm reading, it generally takes a year for an achilles to truly heal. When specifically would you feel that we would have to know Vince was ready to play and how would we know that he is ready to play?

Also, how would you structure his contract and why? I'd like specifics please....comparables, dollar amounts, etc. Thank you.

 

[manxman2601]

Ok, let's focus on your argument specifically. From what I'm reading, it generally takes a year for an achilles to truly heal. When specifically would you feel that we would have to know Vince was ready to play and how would we know that he is ready to play?

Also, how would you structure his contract and why? I'd like specifics please....comparables, dollar amounts, etc. Thank you.

I am not a capologist, I have no interest in capology and I'm not interested in specifics for the very simple reason that, educated or not, it's complete guesswork and therefore relatively meaningless. I find what others have to say about such things informative and interesting but as I'm not in control of all the facts, anything I say as regards specific numbers will be about as precise as saying that it will snow in London on January 21st 2023.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

I am not a capologist, I have no interest in capology and I'm not interested in specifics for the very simple reason that, educated or not, it's complete guesswork and therefore relatively meaningless. I find what others have to say about such things informative and interesting but as I'm not in control of all the facts, anything I say as regards specific numbers will be about as precise as saying that it will snow in London on January 21st 2023.

Welcome to posting on fan websites. But that's half the fun.

 

[manxman2601]

Welcome to posting on fan websites. But that's half the fun.

Trust me, numbers to me are not fun. I like to evaluate talent (try), that's what I get out of this game. I leave the spreadsheets to others and feed off their wisdom.

 

[Fencer]

he needs more "Will" and less "fork".

Well played, Sir!

 

[ausbacker]

Who cares what he did in 2011 or 2012? What is this Kindergarten?

You don't pay a player for what he did...you pay a player for what he can do for you in the coming year.

That's why, again, I'm glad we have Bob Kraft making decisions for this team and not our fanbase.

Wilfork has earned every cent he collects from the Patriots. He's played on reasonable contracts for the majority of his career whilst regularly commanding double teams. Whilst I agree that you pay for the future you also pay for past performance. That is how you build a team and reward players. It's not just take take take RI Patriots fan.

Next time a player complains about outperforming his contract and demands a significant raise, you should rethink your position.

 

[kennyb]

Wilfork has earned every cent he collects from the Patriots. He's played on reasonable contracts for the majority of his career whilst regularly commanding double teams. Whilst I agree that you pay for the future you also pay for past performance. That is how you build a team and reward players. It's not just take take take RI Patriots fan.

Next time a player complains about outperforming his contract and demands a significant raise, you should rethink your position.

I don't know that bb would agree to pay for past performance.

not sure what your last part means about outperforming a contract. If you're suggesting that the pats should "honor the rest of Wilfork's contrsct" even though he can't play because players have to honor their contracts when they outplay them, then I think that's ridiculous. Contracts are structured that way on purpose. Teams always have the option to cut. Players and the nfl pa know this. That's why guaranteed money is so important. Players don't have to return salary and guarateed money when they underperform. That's also the way the contracts are structured.

If Wilfork had 3 years left and couldn't play should they just ir him and pay him 10% of the cap or so out of loyalty? If they had done that when Wilfork signed his contract there wouldn't have been any cap room to sign him. The cap would have been going to injured former players.

Wilfork made tens of millions. If he earned that great. He was well compensated for taking on double teams. If he can't do it anymore then he's cut. To do otherwise is to field an inferior team. That's how I see it.

 

[RayClay]

I can't imagine how a DT who gets hit and pushes up against other 300+ pound men every play on defense would perform at a higher rate than a CB or RB who suffers the same injury.

Clearly, achilles injuries are career threatening and with Vince's weight and advanced age, it makes it even more likely that he will not perform at a high level and miss even more games due to further injuries.

I can't imagine how a DT who gets hit and pushes up against other 300+ pound men every play on defense would perform at a higher rate than a CB or RB who suffers the same injury.

He doesn't have to run pass patterns, or cut back and forth like a running back. How did Mankins [a 300 lb man who...]play a season with a blown ACL? Could he have run pass patterns all game? I don't think so.

I'm not the one here pretending to know all the answers, but I do have some questions for one who does.

 

[ausbacker]

I don't know that bb would agree to pay for past performance.

not sure what your last part means about outperforming a contract. If you're suggesting that the pats should "honor the rest of Wilfork's contrsct" even though he can't play because players have to honor their contracts when they outplay them, then I think that's ridiculous. Contracts are structured that way on purpose. Teams always have the option to cut. Players and the nfl pa know this. That's why guaranteed money is so important. Players don't have to return salary and guarateed money when they underperform. That's also the way the contracts are structured.

If Wilfork had 3 years left and couldn't play should they just ir him and pay him 10% of the cap or so out of loyalty? If they had done that when Wilfork signed his contract there wouldn't have been any cap room to sign him. The cap would have been going to injured former players.

Wilfork made tens of millions. If he earned that great. He was well compensated for taking on double teams. If he can't do it anymore then he's cut. To do otherwise is to field an inferior team. That's how I see it.

Of course teams have the option to release players it's more the level of disrespect certain posters are showing to a future Patriots HOFer in the interest of penny-pinching.

Teams pay players for past performance and future performance. I'm not entering debate on that fact.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Couple of things here:

(1) wilfork was slow at the beginning of the season because he was hurt in the offseason, maybe during a preseason game. He clearly was not the same player early in the year before the injury. The ankle injury may have been a preexisting injury.

(2) coming back from an Achilles injury is serious business.

It's a difficult decision belichick has to make. I believe the pats should restructure his contract for significantly less money and draft a replacement. If he doesn't want to return at less money, you cut him.

 

[kennyb]

Of course teams have the option to release players it's more the level of disrespect certain posters are showing to a future Patriots HOFer in the interest of penny-pinching.

Teams pay players for past performance and future performance. I'm not entering debate on that fact.

It's not disrespect. It's reality.

No basis to say they pay for past performance unless it's partly a predictor of future performance. You can't debate as it's your opinion as I have mine. Doubt you can point to players paid huge salaries when they were unlikely to return to form. And it's not penny pjnching. The money goes elsewhere. Edelman perhaps.

 

[Marinlik]

Of course teams have the option to release players it's more the level of disrespect certain posters are showing to a future Patriots HOFer in the interest of penny-pinching.

Teams pay players for past performance and future performance. I'm not entering debate on that fact.

$7,5m in cap savings isn't really penny-pinching. Especially not on our already tight cap and with a QB that has fewer years left than what he has already played.

 

[meatface]

Another thought

Wilfork would not have been worth $7.5M even if he didn't injure his achilles.

well we can't be sure of that but based on teh salary of someone like Tommy Kelly it does seem unlikley. Honestly Wilfork is probbaly worth around $3 million to the patriots and less to almost anyone else unless he has an amazing recovery. Older DT just dont get paid like he will and unless he basically restructures his salary to almost nothing in 2014 then it really looks like it would make sense for them to cut him.

 

[SalemPats]

well we can't be sure of that but based on teh salary of someone like Tommy Kelly it does seem unlikley. Honestly Wilfork is probbaly worth around $3 million to the patriots and less to almost anyone else unless he has an amazing recovery. Older DT just dont get paid like he will and unless he basically restructures his salary to almost nothing in 2014 then it really looks like it would make sense for them to cut him.

I'm not sure you understand the values of DTs. You look at the top 20 DTs in the league and 3M would be at the bottom (not including players on rookie contracts). We're going to need at least 5M, he'll be snatched up pretty quickly for that amount

 

[kennyb]

I'm not sure you understand the values of DTs. You look at the top 20 DTs in the league and 3M would be at the bottom (not including players on rookie contracts). We're going to need at least 5M, he'll be snatched up pretty quickly for that amount

For a 33 year old guy playing on one leg? Terrance knighton played for 1.5 this year. He would have been pretty good.

 

[SalemPats]

For a 33 year old guy playing on one leg? Terrance knighton played for 1.5 this year. He would have been pretty good.

If Vince is not healthy that's different issue.

As for Knighton that's luck, look at how many teams don't have a good NT. NTs are stats guys, but their impact on the game is as important as a LT. Vince commands double teams which frees up the pass rushers and rushing yards allowed before contact with Vince in the lineup and out of the lineup is significant