Why is it so goddarn hard to evaluate a college RB?

[silenthuntr7]

If we look at elite RB's last year, here's where they were drafted:

MJD: 60th (6th RB picked in 2006, behind LenDale White and our own LoMo))
Peterson: 7th (1st in 2007)
Forte: 44th (6th in 2008, behind guys like Felix Jones)
Rice: 55th (7th in 2008)
McCoy: 53rd (4th in 2009, behind guys like Beanie Wells and Donald Brown)
Foster: UFA (2009...yeah, not a great year for evaluations)

Why such inconsistency in ranking RBs?

With the exception of Peterson (and before this year, CJ), first round RBs have not had a great run of success. Is there any factors that could explain this trend?

 

[Husse]

Pressure to perform right away? They don't get enough time to develop on NFL teams, and when they don't deliver right away they lose confidence?

 

[manxman2601]

Is it just simply the quality of offensive lines? A running back lives or dies on the blocking he gets.

 

[NePatriots]

Is it just simply the quality of offensive lines? A running back lives or dies on the blocking he gets.

This, and getting the right type of back for your system. You draft a zone RB and then you get a new OC that employs angle blocking... might not be a good fit.

 

[UofApatsfan]

It's also the short shelf life of a running back. Even great running backs look done by the time they turn 30, a lot of them just don't have the durability to play RB in the NFL that long. As good as Chris Johnson looked was a 1st round pick really worth it for 3 seasons or so then falling apart?

 

[patchick]

If we look at elite RB's last year, here's where they were drafted:

MJD: 60th (6th RB picked in 2006, behind LenDale White and our own LoMo))
Peterson: 7th (1st in 2007)
Forte: 44th (6th in 2008, behind guys like Felix Jones)
Rice: 55th (7th in 2008)
McCoy: 53rd (4th in 2009, behind guys like Beanie Wells and Donald Brown)
Foster: UFA (2009...yeah, not a great year for evaluations)

Why such inconsistency in ranking RBs?

Huh, and here I was thinking "Wow, the top 5 RBs were all drafted in the top 2 rounds! That's impressive drafting!"

Try the WRs with >1300 yards for comparison:
C. Johnson: 2nd
Welker: undrafted
Cruz: undrafted
Fitzgerald: 3rd
S. Smith: 74th

 

[Leemo]

Huh, and here I was thinking "Wow, the top 5 RBs were all drafted in the top 2 rounds! That's impressive drafting!"

Try the WRs with >1300 yards for comparison:
C. Johnson: 2nd
Welker: undrafted
Cruz: undrafted
Fitzgerald: 3rd
S. Smith: 74th

Thats why its sometimes wise to move down the draft and get more picks. Most rookies don't end up making the grade but the more you have the better chance you have of unearthing a pearl.