Why does BB miss on so many mid round WRs ?

[patchick]

It is pretty well established that BB sucks at picking WRs, but the question is why. I think the answer is that he is always looking for super boy scouts, but the best WRs are usually prima donnas or worse.

His biggest WR flop, Chad Jackson, was 100% prima donna. Plus he brought in Moss & Ocho, who were anything but "super boy scouts"! So I'd look for a better answer for why "it is pretty well established that BB sucks at picking WRs."

Or better yet, consider that it may just not be established at all. Try pairing the randomness theory above with the fact that in BB's tenure with the Patriots he has picked 0 WRs in the 1st round and 4 in the 2nd, half of whom have panned out. There isn't really much of a pattern to support what we all think we know.

 

[PATSNUTme]

I read in a draft guide that the toughest position to draft is WR. That is due to the offenses that the college teams run today.

Next is DB, which is the hardest position to play in the NFL.

 

[woolster22]

Re: Re: OT: Why does BB miss on so many mid round WRs ?

So we draft a stud in Dobson and your making this? Dobson has been what we needed. And if Tom would look his way more and not have a bum hand, he would have better numbers already. I can't believe thompkins is fading away in the offense.

Double catching and issues against man coverage would be the first reasons thompkins is fading. Dobson had also been showing legitimate improvement week after week. That double move for the td was beautiful, if tb threw that better there wouldn't have been a body within 8 yards. His routes are improving, his hands are improving, the timing with tb seems to be improving...he also seems to be a willing and decent blocker. I am very high on this kid not only into next year, but into December and hopefully beyond.

With collie coming in, I expect Tompkins should be hitting the jugs machine hard. Ameninjured is taped together for another week, and Edelman is playing well (unbelievable on returns.). . He has an uphill battle to playing time.

 

[DaBruinz]

His production is a lot better than Boyce's. Also I noticed you completely ignored TY Hilton. And if the Jets secondary is so bad, why didn't the Pats tear them up ?

Boyce is a rookie.

Marvin Jones was a 5th round pick by the Bengals in 2012.

The offense that the Bengals run is different than that of the Patriots. Not to mention that the Bengals offense is healthier, in general, compared to the Pats.

T.Y. Hilton? He was a 3rd round pick in 2012. Again, not a rookie. Again, different defense. It's not nearly as complex as the Patriots one.

You're trying to compare Apples to Oranges to figure out which one makes the best lemonade..

 

[manxman2601]

Marvin Jones is going to be a beast. That's why he was one of my major binkies two years ago.

 

[DaBruinz]

If you're a 4th round pick and can't beat out an undrafted free agent, and a street free agent with an egg shell for a skull who comes in after week 5, yeah maybe not a bust but certainly a disappointment. Hell he can't even get into games as a return man over our 250 pound straight line return man. Marvin Jones showed flashes last season as a rookie receiver.

Your reasoning is so flawed it's ridiculous.

4th round picks have like a 10% success rate, first and foremost.

Everyone KNEW that Boyce was a project coming in.

Collie is a 5th year receiver who has played in an offense that is extremely similar to the Pats offense.

Thompkins plays a different position than Boyce. You trying to compare the two is silly.

 

[patchick]

Fun with small sample sizes!

Over a 13-year span the Belichick Patriots have drafted 3 WRs in round 6-7, with a 66% hit rate.

They have also drafted 3 WRs in rounds 3-4, with a 0% hit rate.

This demonstrates that they are good at drafting late-round WRs and bad at drafting mid-round WRs. Therefore all of their WRs should be drafted in rounds 6 and beyond.






:bricks:

 

[Patriot Missile]

I had him mocked to the Pats with one of their 2nds. But lets be honest. What has he really done? a couple of weeks ago Sanu had a big game and was the flavor of the month who also many had crushes on. Where is he now?

Sometimes I really think its a no win for gms. Just look at the LB threads over the years. BB never drafts lbs in the first 3 rounds. Hits on Mayo and people are still complaining that he doesn't make big plays but is a solid tackler and that's all. Great pick. Then he drafts Spikes and everyone is happy. Then Highhtower who a majority is happy for as well. Now, Spikes and Hightower are too slow to cover anybody, they are too big are the new threads. Everyone is an expert and ask why didn't BB draft Wagner.

Have to admit I'm pretty happy with Dobson right now. For only 8 games in ill put him right up there with all the rookie wr's drafted. I bet the stats would back it up too. Same for KT. Dez Bryant didn't really start lighting up the NFL until his 2nd year. Even then he was inconsistent at times. Give it time.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Marvin Jones is going to be a beast. That's why he was one of my major binkies two years ago.

I had him mocked as well. Kind of irritated he went in the 5th. Thought he was a low 2 high 3 that year. I think his progression in this system would of been interesting to watch.

So far though Dobson and KT have been steadily getting better and right up there with this years batch.

 

[manxman2601]

I had him mocked as well. Kind of irritated he went in the 5th. Thought he was a low 2 high 3 that year. I think his progression in this system would of been interesting to watch.

So far though Dobson and KT have been steadily getting better and right up there with this years batch.

I think he'd be everything KT is and more (and with a years experience). Still, it is what it is.

I was surprised that he was taken so low and that it took so long for him to 'make it' with the Bengals. Glad that he is now though because I just couldn't see what there was that seemed to be causing him to fail and it was confusing the hell out of me.

 

[Leemo]

Why haven't you mentioned Markus Wheaton? Or Marquise Goodwin? Or Stedman Bailey? Or Ace Sanders? Or Chris Harper? Or Quinton Patton? Or Tavarres King?

Shall we go back to last year?

Why haven't you mentioned DeVier Posey? Or TJ Graham? Or Chris Givens? Or Travis Benjamin? Or Joe Adams? Or Devon Wylie? Or Jairus Wright? Or Keshawn Martin? Or Nick Toon? Or Greg Childs? Or Danny Coale? Or Juron Criner?

I think you get my point......

Was the best rookie WR last season actually

 

[AzPatsFan]

Every team misses on picks. I don't think the Pats are materially worse. They've had 1st/2nd round flops (Chad Jackson) and 7th round steals (Givens, Edelman). The draft is an inexact science; if it weren't, Aaron Rodgers would not have gone 20+ picks later than Alex Smith.

FWIW, I think we hit on a midround WR pick this year - Aaron Dobson is turning into a quality target for Brady.

I do not accept your premise that Belichick cannot draft WRs. Chad Jackson and Taylor Price failed but Deon and Givens as well as Tomkins, Dobson and even red shirted Boyce put paid to that.

Even Brandon Tate is still in the league playing for Cincy. He just ripped of a 71 yard KO return against the Jesters.

 

[jmt57]

Two thoughts with the original premise:

1. When you narrow down analysis and scrutiny of drafts from an already small size (7 picks per year) further to just one position, then even further by eliminating both early picks and late picks, your sample size becomes so small that there is bound to be bias and nothing to be ascertained from the results.

2. When you compare just one to the field (in this case the results from one team compared to the results of 31 teams), then it should be of no surprise the 31 teams collectively had more success stories than the one single team did.