Who do we root for?

[Foxypats]

right now I don't care who wins and who looses as long as the Pats make it, maybe I will think differently tomorrow. I know we didn't play well however its 2 weeks in a row that the Pats have gotten hosed by the refs time and again ! This game has left a very bad taste in my mouth, more than any other game in 3 years !!

 

[Delicate Genius]

6. Patriots (9-6)
7. Ravens (8-7)
- - - - -
8. Chargers (8-7)
9. Raiders (8-7)
10. Dolphins (7-7)
11. Steelers (7-7-1)
12. Browns (7-8)
13. Broncos (7-8)

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head and can be applied with the Chargers and Browns. The Patriots beat them both.

The second tiebreaker is Conference record. The Patriots at 7-3 bests every team below them: BAL (5-6), LAC (5-5), LVR (6-4), MIA (5-5), PIT (5-5), CLE (4-6), and DEN (3-7). If the Patriots finish 7-5 in the AFC, the Chargers, Dolphins, and Steelers can equal that, and the Raiders can tie or beat it. However:

- Baltimore and Los Angeles can only pass the Patriots by winning out (10-7) and the Pats losing out (9-8). As mentioned, the Chargers have already lost the first tiebreaker (head-to-head), and the Ravens cannot equal or better any Conference record the Patriots finish with.

- Las Vegas winning out + the Pats losing one of their final two games means identical Conference records, which would push it to the third tiebreaker (winning percentage in common games). The Raiders (3-1, .750) currently hold that over New England (2-2, .500), with three common opponents remaining (IND, LAC, and MIA).

- Miami currently holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Pats. Better idea about this one after tomorrow's game.

- Pittsburgh cannot pass the Patriots if the Patriots win one more game or the Steelers lose one more game.

- Cleveland and Denver cannot catch the Patriots due to the Conference record tiebreaker. The Browns have already lost out on head-to-head too.

The Pats are in a good spot and currently control their own playoff chances. They can still overtake the Colts and/or Bills but would need some help.

The teams to be watching are the Dolphins and Raiders. Miami's remaining schedule is at New Orleans, at Tennessee, and hosting the Pats. Las Vegas plays at Indianapolis and at home against the Chargers.

 

[Patjew]

(This post is in regards to the Pats and just one other team ending up tied. A tie with two or more teams is too difficult to figure out right now.)

6. Patriots (9-6)
7. Ravens (8-7)
- - - - -
8. Chargers (8-7)
9. Raiders (8-7)
10. Dolphins (7-7)
11. Steelers (7-7-1)
12. Browns (7-8)
13. Broncos (7-8)

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head and can be applied with the Chargers and Browns. The Patriots beat them both.

The second tiebreaker is Conference record. The Patriots at 7-3 bests every team below them: BAL (5-6), LAC (5-5), LVR (6-4), MIA (5-5), PIT (5-5), CLE (4-6), and DEN (3-7). If the Patriots finish 7-5 in the AFC, the Chargers, Dolphins, and Steelers can equal that, and the Raiders can tie or beat it.

- Baltimore and Los Angeles can only pass the Patriots by winning out (10-7) and the Pats losing out (9-8). As mentioned, the Chargers have already lost the first tiebreaker (head-to-head), and the Ravens cannot equal or better any Conference record the Patriots finish with.

- Las Vegas winning out + the Pats losing one of their final two games means identical Conference records, which would push it to the third tiebreaker (winning percentage in common games). The Raiders (3-1, .750) currently hold that over New England (2-2, .500), with three common opponents remaining (IND, LAC, and MIA).

- Miami currently holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Pats. Better idea about this one after tomorrow's game.

- Pittsburgh cannot pass the Patriots if the Patriots win one more game or the Steelers lose one more game.

- Cleveland and Denver cannot catch the Patriots due to the Conference record tiebreaker. The Browns have already lost out on head-to-head too.

The Pats are in a good spot and currently control their own playoff chances. They can still overtake the Colts and/or Bills but would need some help. A win next week would guarantee finishing ahead of the Ravens, Chargers, Steelers, Browns, and Broncos.

The teams to be watching are the Dolphins and Raiders. Miami's remaining schedule is at New Orleans, at Tennessee, and hosting the Pats. Las Vegas plays at Indianapolis and at home against the Chargers.

Thank you, this is also very useful! I wish it were more simple, but here we are…

 

[Ring 6]

I figure the Colts and Titans are both in, and Baltimore and the Bengals are in. So we need to make sure the 3 AFC west teams (besides KC), the Steelers, and Dolphins don’t get ahead of us for the 3rd wild card spot. We’ve got the tiebreaker on the Browns, they’re effectively eliminated. We have it on the Chargers too and their loss this week was huge.

Take care of business against the Jags next week and if the cards fall right, that could be enough to clinch a playoff spot on its own.

How are you counting baltimore in at 8-7 with 4 losses in a row and the rams and Steelers left to play?
chargers raiders and broncos are all 8-7 and chargers/raiders chargers/broncos still play so best case is 1 10-7 team.
A win next week guarantees us at least a tie for the second wild card spot, and 2 wins and we clinch it.

 

[Ring 6]

This is the way we should be thinking because with a win against the Jags next week, we'll have a discussion of whether to purposely lose against the Phins.

Assuming the Bills are automatic to beat the Jets (which, I don't think BB will be thinking this way) a win against the Phins would send the Patriots to Indy or Buffalo on the first weekend, whereas a loss to the Phins would send them to Tennessee (I think it's greater than 90% that Tennessee is going to be the 2nd seed.)

So--who would we rather play? @ Tennessee? Or @Buffalo/@Colts? All depends on whether we beat or lose to the Phins.

We won’t lose on purpose to get a worse seed.

 

[Ross12]

Thank you, this is also very useful! I wish it were more simple, but here we are…

It'll simplify things a lot of Miami loses tomorrow. Here's hoping.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

How are you counting baltimore in at 8-7 with 4 losses in a row and the rams and Steelers left to play?
chargers raiders and broncos are all 8-7 and chargers/raiders chargers/broncos still play so best case is 1 10-7 team.
A win next week guarantees us at least a tie for the second wild card spot, and 2 wins and we clinch it.

Good point about Baltimore, I didn’t realize they had the Rams left.

Broncos can’t finish better than 9-8 now. Chargers can finish 10-7 but the Pats own the tiebreaker against them. The Raiders are the problem, they have it over us if we both finish 10-7.

Basically, Pats need to beat the Jags next week. If 2 of the following also happens next week, then the Pats will clinch a playoff spot: Colts beat the Raiders, Rams beat the Ravens, and Titans beat the Dolphins (Saints beating the Dolphins tomorrow night also will satisfy this).

Obviously there are lots of other ways to get into the playoffs, and the above scenarios might not be best for seeding. But this is the way they can clinch next week.

I’m not sure if a win next week without help will guarantee a playoff spot.

 

[Ring 6]

Good point about Baltimore, I didn’t realize they had the Rams left.

Broncos can’t finish better than 9-8 now. Chargers can finish 10-7 but the Pats own the tiebreaker against them. The Raiders are the problem, they have it over us if we both finish 10-7.

Basically, Pats need to beat the Jags next week. If 2 of the following also happens next week, then the Pats will clinch a playoff spot: Colts beat the Raiders, Rams beat the Ravens, and Titans beat the Dolphins (Saints beating the Dolphins tomorrow night also will satisfy this).

Obviously there are lots of other ways to get into the playoffs, and the above scenarios might not be best for seeding. But this is the way they can clinch next week.

I’m not sure if a win next week without help will guarantee a playoff spot.

If we win Sunday we cannot lose a spot to the ravens. The best they could do is tie us and we hold the tie breaker, just like with the Chargers. If the Raiders beat Indy then Indy has 7 losses too.
The odds we are out at 10-7 are virtually zero.

 

[‘Mondre]

Just want buf to lose out of spite.

indy used to be in pats division so **** them too. Also it would be convenient.

 

[Disco Volante]

So of course just getting in the playoffs is the top priority. But for anyone interested in absolute best case scenarios....

If the Pats finish the season 2-0 (vs Jaguars, @ Dolphins), the following would need to happen for the:

#1 Seed
1) Chiefs go 0-2 (@ Bengals, @ Broncos)
2) Bills go at least 1-1 (vs Falcons, vs Jets)
3) Titans go 1-1 (vs Dolphins, @ Texans)*
*If the Titans were to go 0-2, then the Colts (vs Raiders, @ Jags) would also need to lose at least 1 game

#2 Seed
1) Bills go at least 1-1 (vs Falcons, vs Jets)
2) Titans go 1-1 (vs Dolphins, @ Texans)*
*If the Titans were to go 0-2, then the Colts (vs Raiders, @ Jags) would also need to lose at least 1 game

#3 or #4 seed (Don't care enough to see the difference, aka just win the damn division)
1) Bills go at least 1-1 (vs Falcons, vs Jets)
-----------------
So next week, if you're rooting for the best case scenario:

-Chiefs @ Bengals*
-Falcons @ Bills
-Dolphins vs Titans
-Colts vs Raiders

*This would be only result that needs to happen for the Pats to go into Week 18 with a mathematical shot at the #1 seed, with the other 3 games not being eliminators in that department, though obviously you want as many of them to lose this week.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Basically, Pats need to beat the Jags next week. If 2 of the following also happens next week, then the Pats will clinch a playoff spot: Colts beat the Raiders, Rams beat the Ravens, and Titans beat the Dolphins (Saints beating the Dolphins tomorrow night also will satisfy this).

I tested out the Ravens and us at 10-7 and we are getting in over them on playoff machine. Looks like we just need the Raiders or Dolphins to lose a game at any point, and beat Jacksonville. Barring a loss to Jacksonville, we are incredibly unlikely to miss the playoffs. Us missing out at 10-7 would require the Raiders beating Indy and SD, as well as Miami beating NO, TEN, and us.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

If we win Sunday we cannot lose a spot to the ravens. The best they could do is tie us and we hold the tie breaker, just like with the Chargers. If the Raiders beat Indy then Indy has 7 losses too.
The odds we are out at 10-7 are virtually zero.

You got me on the Ravens if we’re just looking at head to head. They’re irrelevant from our perspective provided we beat the Jags. Likely still the case in a multi-team scenario.

If the Raiders win out, the Dolphins win out, and the Colts beat the Jags in week 18, the 4 of us would be 10-7. First tiebreaker is to use division head-to-head to eliminate common division teams. Pats lose out to the Phins, and since the other teams are in other divisions, that eliminates us from WC1. Raiders get WC1 (Dolphins eliminated with worse conference record, and the Raiders would have beaten the Colts). For WC2, Pats eliminated again due to Dolphins, and Indy gets the spot as they beat the Dolphins earlier this year. So WC3 is between us and the Dolphins and we lose out again because of the Dolphin sweep.

Let’s see, same scenario but add the Ravens winning out so 5 teams are 10-7. Raiders still WC1 (Ravens same conference record as Dolphins). For WC2, Indy still gets that spot - Ravens eliminated after Pats due to worse conference record (no common opponents sweep). And Dolphins still get WC3 because they beat the Ravens. So their inclusion doesn’t matter for this scenario.

 

[Ring 6]

You got me on the Ravens if we’re just looking at head to head. They’re irrelevant from our perspective provided we beat the Jags. Likely still the case in a multi-team scenario.

If the Raiders win out, the Dolphins win out, and the Colts beat the Jags in week 18, the 4 of us would be 10-7. First tiebreaker is to use division head-to-head to eliminate common division teams. Pats lose out to the Phins, and since the other teams are in other divisions, that eliminates us from WC1. Raiders get WC1 (Dolphins eliminated with worse conference record, and the Raiders would have beaten the Colts). For WC2, Pats eliminated again due to Dolphins, and Indy gets the spot as they beat the Dolphins earlier this year. So WC3 is between us and the Dolphins and we lose out again because of the Dolphin sweep.

Let’s see, same scenario but add the Ravens winning out so 5 teams are 10-7. Raiders still WC1 (Ravens same conference record as Dolphins). For WC2, Indy still gets that spot - Ravens eliminated after Pats due to worse conference record (no common opponents sweep). And Dolphins still get WC3 because they beat the Ravens. So their inclusion doesn’t matter for this scenario.

Again the odds of that are virtually zero.

 

[Delicate Genius]

The Patriots will clinch next Sunday with a win vs Jacksonville, a Dolphins loss tomorrow or next week, and a Ravens loss to the Rams (this result might be irrelevant because the Pats have the tiebreaker already).

Under that scenario the Pats would go to 10-6. That would be too many wins for the Ravens, Dolphins, Steelers, Browns, and Broncos to match with only two games remaining. And some of those teams have already lost the tiebreaker to the Pats.

That leaves the Raiders and Chargers as the only two teams that could reach ten wins, but they play each other in Week 18, so one of them would only be able to reach nine wins.

I'm ignoring the Colts and Bills since they are ahead right now, but the Colts do host the Raiders next Sunday. Vegas winning that game would create more chaos but would move the Pats up to the #5 seed (if they beat JAX) heading into the final week. The Pats could also be leading the division again if the Falcons beat the Bills.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Again the odds of that are virtually zero.

Unlikely doesn’t mean virtually zero. A 5% chance is worlds higher than 0.5%, it’s the odds of winning the $1 on your first spin on the Price is Right. Very unlikely but there’s an ~80% chance you’ll see it at least one time in a week. Neither the Raiders nor the Dolphins face an impossible schedule at this point. I think the Colts and Titans are better than them, but the Raiders and Phins still have a reasonable chance of winning their respective games, especially with the COVID situation potentially throwing a monkey wrench into it.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

The Patriots can clinch next Sunday with a win vs Jacksonville, a Dolphins loss tomorrow or next week, and a Ravens loss to the Rams.

Under that scenario the Pats would go to 10-6. That would be too many wins for the Ravens, Dolphins, Steelers, Browns, and Broncos to match with only two games remaining. And some of those teams have already lost the tiebreaker to the Pats.

That leaves the Raiders and Chargers as the only two teams who could reach ten wins, but they play each other in Week 18, so one of them is maxing out at 9-8.

I'm ignoring the Colts and Bills since they are ahead right now, but the Colts do host the Raiders next Sunday. Vegas winning that game would create more chaos but would move the Pats up to the #5 seed at worst (if they beat JAX) heading into the final week. The Pats could also be leading the division again with some help from Atlanta.

Pats can also clinch next week with a Raider loss to the Colts instead of either the Dolphins or Ravens. Need 2 of those teams to lose next week (or tomorrow) combined with a Pats win.

Also, Raiders and Chargers are 8-7 now so the team that maxes out is 10-7. Chargers really killed their chances with the Texans loss today; they need a lot of help to get in. If they win out, Pats beat them in all tiebreaker scenarios including three way.

 

[Delicate Genius]

Pats can also clinch next week with a Raider loss to the Colts instead of either the Dolphins or Ravens. Need 2 of those teams to lose next week (or tomorrow) combined with a Pats win.

Also, Raiders and Chargers are 8-7 now so the team that maxes out is 10-7. Chargers really killed their chances with the Texans loss today; they need a lot of help to get in. If they win out, Pats beat them in all tiebreaker scenarios including three way.

Sorry about that. I meant because the Raiders/Chargers play each other in Week 18, whoever loses that game can only finish 9-8 at best. Only one of those teams will be able to reach ten wins, which might be the magic number for the Pats to clinch.

 

[Patjew]

Thank you all for doing the heavy math lifting in this thread. I thought I was missing the obvious calculations but clearly it’s very complicated.

What I am emboldened by is, it seems that if the Pats win out, they’re in the playoffs.

And also, I have a weird feeling ATL could beat the Bills.

 

[Ring 6]

Unlikely doesn’t mean virtually zero. A 5% chance is worlds higher than 0.5%, it’s the odds of winning the $1 on your first spin on the Price is Right. Very unlikely but there’s an ~80% chance you’ll see it at least one time in a week. Neither the Raiders nor the Dolphins face an impossible schedule at this point. I think the Colts and Titans are better than them, but the Raiders and Phins still have a reasonable chance of winning their respective games, especially with the COVID situation potentially throwing a monkey wrench into it.

All of those things happening are not close to 5%

 

[ctpatsfan77]

We won’t lose on purpose to get a worse seed.

What happened in 2005. when Belichick pulled Brady with the #3 seed on the line?