Which QB do you want the Patriots to draft?

[Ross12]

I would be on board with Maye, McCarthy or Daniels. Think they’re all good and they should take whoever they like best that is still available, at least two will be. If they grade all 3 very equally then I might look at a trade down a few spots (such as with the Giants) and gamble that one will still be around then, in exchange for getting an extra pick.

I do also see some sense in a trade down with Atlanta or around there, grabbing Odunze, securing an extra high 2nd plus more, then moving up with one of those 2nds to draft Penix and rolling the dice. He has some talent but the ceiling is probably only so high and he has injury issues. However it would be a jumpstart to the team to get Odunze + Penix together. Sign a good backup like Minshew and see how it goes.

I would rather “Plan A” though.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I posted this in the Draft Forum:

You know what's wild? The only QB picked from #2-#9 who won a SB as a starter in the last 38 years is Trent Dilfer, and he didn't even win it with his original team.

In the SB era, in addition to Dilfer, we have PSimms, McMahon, Bob Griese, and Len Dawson. That's it... in ~60 years. 3 who won with their original teams.

 

[Love The Drake]

I posted this in the Draft Forum:

You know what's wild? The only QB picked from #2-#9 who won a SB as a starter in the last 38 years is Trent Dilfer, and he didn't even win it with his original team.

In the SB era, in addition to Dilfer, we have PSimms, McMahon, Bob Griese, and Len Dawson. That's it... in ~60 years. 3 who won with their original teams.

I posted this in the Draft Forum:

You know what's wild? The only QB picked from #2-#9 who won a SB as a starter in the last 38 years is Trent Dilfer, and he didn't even win it with his original team.

In the SB era, in addition to Dilfer, we have PSimms, McMahon, Bob Griese, and Len Dawson. That's it... in ~60 years. 3 who won with their original teams.

Baby steps I just cont want to have to drink in passing situations.
And deal with announcers laughing at Macs balls staying in the air.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

If I had to make the pick today I would take Drake Maye, but I’m fine with any of the top 3. Ultimately I think his size and arm give him a little bit of an edge. I think he’s the more prototypical QB, and has the athleticism that could make him a Josh Allen caliber QB in the NFL. I really like Daniels as well, but there’s a little more risk with picking him. I’m not that worried about his weight, because I don’t think he’s slight, I think he’s lean and athletic. And I saw him take big hits at LSU and just bounce back up. So I guess I would compare him to a guy like Edelman, who wasn’t big, but he was as rugged as it gets, and could take any hit and just keep going. But what ultimately made choose Maye over Daniels was his ability to get more velocity on mid range throws, which is needed to get the ball into the tight windows they face in that area of the field. However given the dramatic gains Daniels made with good coaching at LSU I believe that he could also make significant improvements in his weaker areas with good coaching in New England, and the rest of his game borders on spectacular. And one thing is for certain, if Daniels ends up here it’s going to be must see TV, as he is as explosive a playmaker as we will ever see.

I won’t bother with Williams, as he won’t be there. But I’m really hoping that Chicago’s desire to dump Fields causes any team that wants to get him to lowball the **** out of them. If I were making the decision I would offer a 5th, decline his option, use him as a 1year bridge, and then take the 3rd round compensatory pick in return for his free agency.

To me McCarthy is the biggest risk and the biggest projection. I don’t dislike him, but the production just isn’t there, and everything is being projected for him to be a great QB, which is exactly what the Jets did with Zach Wilson. They just fell in love with his tools, and overlooked everything else. However I do think McCarthy has a franchise ceiling, and he seems to be a winner, and the ceiling is the requirement for taking a QB in the first round imo. I don’t believe the others, Nix and Penix have that ceiling, so I wouldn’t use a first on either, and even if I did take one of them I would still be looking for a franchise QB in the first round of every draft until I found one.

That’s all well and good. You look at tape and see their intangibles
Problem is do they translate to a Pro system
Can they read a defensive alignment (in most College ball, they walk up to the line fake the snap then look back to the sideline to get the adjustment. They don’t do it themself).
Can they quickly get through complicated Pro progressions. (Not the simple 1st or 2nd read routes or tuck it and run)
That you can test them during in house interviews. But seeing it is more valuable. Hands on rules
Out of all the top QB’s, McCarthy is the only one that experienced a Pro system.
Not saying he will be the best out of them. Just easier to project
It is just so much more complicated than what we see on film.
That is why there are so many QB busts.

 

[dliverey44]

I posted this in the Draft Forum:

You know what's wild? The only QB picked from #2-#9 who won a SB as a starter in the last 38 years is Trent Dilfer, and he didn't even win it with his original team.

In the SB era, in addition to Dilfer, we have PSimms, McMahon, Bob Griese, and Len Dawson. That's it... in ~60 years. 3 who won with their original teams.

Yea it is such a crap shoot, It is on coaches to look at a guys talent and then see if they can refine it.

 

[Aussie Patriot]

Not saying he will be the best out of them. Just easier to project

Maybe, maybe not. He has the least amount of throws to judge as he wasn't asked to throw that much.

As an example i heard an analyst say that his last 6 games he threw for only 800 something yards.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Maybe, maybe not. He has the least amount of throws to judge as he wasn't asked to throw that much.

As an example i heard an analyst say that his last 6 games he through for only 800 something yards.

I agree on amount if throws.
But even with limited amount you still can see if he can make every throw. Then it’s repetition
If you can’t run a Pro system, Your toast

 

[dliverey44]

I do really hope that Nathan Rourke gets a real opportunity to show what he can do. If you squint really hard his game kinda resembles Mayfield. He seems to have decent pocket presence, strongish arm, and he is a fast runner.

 

[Ivan]

That’s all well and good. You look at tape and see their intangibles
Problem is do they translate to a Pro system
Can they read a defensive alignment (in most College ball, they walk up to the line fake the snap then look back to the sideline to get the adjustment. They don’t do it themself).
Can they quickly get through complicated Pro progressions. (Not the simple 1st or 2nd read routes or tuck it and run)
That you can test them during in house interviews. But seeing it is more valuable. Hands on rules
Out of all the top QB’s, McCarthy is the only one that experienced a Pro system.
Not saying he will be the best out of them. Just easier to project
It is just so much more complicated than what we see on film.
That is why there are so many QB busts.

I don’t disagree with any of this, that’s why I have said many times that the teams have far more information than we have, and all we can do as fans is go by what we see and read about them. My information is a fraction of what they are working, and even they get it wrong more than half the time.

IMO the biggest difference between the NFL and the other sports is the lack of a minor league system, and that’s actually the reason for the high failure rate of draft picks. It’s sink or swim, period. You don’t get to go to A Ball, AA Ball, AAA Ball, then the major leagues, and then you don’t get to go up and down as you adjust to playing with the best players in the world. And it’s next to impossible to understand the individual mental and emotional make up of these prospects and know how they will respond to all of the demands of the game. And once again as fans we can only go by the little we see and read about them, and then project that to our team. But that’s also part of the fun of following sports . So we take our best shots and see what happens. And in the end the only thing we can all count on is that I’m always right. Which should give everyone great comfort.

 

[BTTA]

1. He’s a crybaby
2. Prima Donna
3. Headache in the making
4. Diva in the making
5. Fans will turn on him
6. He might turn on the team
7. He might throw members of the team under bus
8. His after game pressers might be questionable
9. I’m sure his family would be blast to deal with
10. PR horror show
11. Seems entitled
12. All that talent and be such a risk?
13. I’m sure I’ve missed at least ten more

That's a single characteristic listed with different words.

 

[Thelonious]

Not an assessment I've seen anywhere until this comment. His ceiling comp is Josh Allen. His floor is complete and total bust, same as every other QB prospect's floor.

Such notions as "floor" and "ceiling" are a tool, yielding results expressed in terms of probability, not certainty. All things remain possible, of course, even once the probabilities in a situation are reasonably and empirically assessed.The two statements. "I am unlikely to be struck by lightning," and "It is possible I might be struck by lightning" are not contradictory.

As for your not having seen elsewhere the notion that Maye's skills are adequate to make likely a reasonable degree of success but not so special as to ensure greatness, I find that hard to believe, but I am past the age where I care much whether others share my ideas, so I'll not look into it.

 

[Thelonious]

How could the answer not be Caleb Williams?

Common sense.

 

[KCSVEN]

Picked Maye in the poll, after too many hours looking at QB's I have it this way:

1. Maye-Top 3 prospect
Strengths-All the physical talent you want, Leader (His lineman were included in his NIL money), mobility, arm strength, Age.
Weakness-Smaller hands then expected, had some throws get away from him likely due to grip issues at times. Needs to refine mechanics and learn to not play hero ball.

2. Williams- Top 3 prospect
Strengths-Elite, Mahomes type playmaking. Good arm strength, middle depth accuracy elite, off balance throw ability elite
Weakness-Hates to get hit, throws falling away, misses reads, too scared of getting hit(mention twice because so obvious he does not want to get hit), deep ball accuracy is poor, leadership skills?

3/4. Daniels-2nd round prospect worth drafting late 1st for 5th year option
Strengths-Elite open field runner. Hard Worker, 30-50 yard throws are excellent.
Weakness-Goes down on first contact, not strong. Arm strength is NFL average, poor short throw accuracy. Misses open reads regularly. Makes some on field decisions that make you question his processing ability, age
-If he weighs 210 or more is #3 QB, if he weighs 200-210 is #4, if he weighs under 200 I don't draft him at all.

3/4. JJ McCarthy-2nd round prospect worth drafting late 1st for 5th year option
Strengths-Scramble ability, arm talent, age
Weakness-Not enough tape to make good analysis, Boom or Bust prospect. Accuracy issues from pocket, did not need to go thru reads often
-Is 3 or 4 depending on Daniels weight

5. Penix-3rd round talent worth 2nd round pick because QB
Strengths-Arm talent, deep ball, good pocket passer
Weakness-Injury History, lack of mobility, not great under pressure, played with elite line and receivers. Age

Brock Purdy types worth a shot in the dark in the 5-7 round are:
-Spencer Rattler
-Jordan Travis
-Joe Milton
-Bo Nix-Every pass is to a wide open guy behind the line of scrimmage, nothing NFL worthy can be garnered from tape.

I know JJ and Jayden are not getting out of the top 10, but to me they are not top 10 worthy QB's, but we are desperate for a QB, if Maye and Williams are gone and Daniels weighs 210 or more and runs at least a 4.5 forty I'd say they probably have to take him.
JJ is a complete 50/50 tossup pick.

I'd try and trade quite a lot to go up to 2 or 1 and get one of the 2 guys that are easily, to me, head and shoulders above the others in this draft.

 

[vicspats]

That's a single characteristic listed with different words.

Maybe?

 

[Thelonious]

Maybe?

It may be maybe or it might be may be. (while we are on the subject of redundancy)

 

[Brotherblues]

Such notions as "floor" and "ceiling" are a tool, yielding results expressed in terms of probability, not certainty. All things remain possible, of course, even once the probabilities in a situation are reasonably and empirically assessed.The two statements. "I am unlikely to be struck by lightning," and "It is possible I might be struck by lightning" are not contradictory.

As for your not having seen elsewhere the notion that Maye's skills are adequate to make likely a reasonable degree of success but not so special as to ensure greatness, I find that hard to believe, but I am past the age where I care much whether others share my ideas, so I'll not look into it.

All good brother, was just wondering what led you to describe him as a high floor and low ceiling guy.

 

[jdlboot14]

I'll keep saying it.
Let all the desperate teams fight over the top 5 QB's, which undoubtedly causes vast over-drafting.
Trade our #3 back to 8-15 PLUS another low 1st and high 2nd.

Hot take - Bo Nix is going to end up being the Aaron Rogers of this draft. If we get him at the mid-low 1st round, it will be a steal.
Adding a franchise LT and a solid #1WR for the trade... it's a winfall!

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

I don’t disagree with any of this, that’s why I have said many times that the teams have far more information than we have, and all we can do as fans is go by what we see and read about them. My information is a fraction of what they are working, and even they get it wrong more than half the time.

IMO the biggest difference between the NFL and the other sports is the lack of a minor league system, and that’s actually the reason for the high failure rate of draft picks. It’s sink or swim, period. You don’t get to go to A Ball, AA Ball, AAA Ball, then the major leagues, and then you don’t get to go up and down as you adjust to playing with the best players in the world. And it’s next to impossible to understand the individual mental and emotional make up of these prospects and know how they will respond to all of the demands of the game. And once again as fans we can only go by the little we see and read about them, and then project that to our team. But that’s also part of the fun of following sports . So we take our best shots and see what happens. And in the end the only thing we can all count on is that I’m always right. Which should give everyone great comfort.

Pal. i like bouncing stuff off of you. Your knowledgeable and it never gets heated
I have changed my mind 6 times on who to pick and where.
We are rabid fans that can only go on what we research.
Your right on the baseball analogy as far as being able to see how players project in the Pro’s
We will always be throwing darts against a board with the NFL Draft.
Most College systems are so much simpler. They don’t have the resources like the NFL. Plus I think the players have limits to how much practice, time in building restrictions to not interfere with Academics.
That would make have a simpler system much more advantageous for the team
I am sure I will change my mind 6 more times before draft
Good talking

 

[vicspats]

It may be maybe or it might be may be. (while we are on the subject of redundancy)

You sir are 100% correct regarding the redundancy. If we has Stewies Time Machine the speculation at what to do at #3 would be redundant as well !!

 

[Thelonious]

All good brother, was just wondering what led you to describe him as a high floor and low ceiling guy.

Nothing very technical. I just think he's got above-average abilities across the board, which ensures some degree of success, but that there is no aspect of his game or makeup so compelling that he's any sort of can't-miss as a "franchise quarterback." Since we are thinking of using a rare-as-hens'-teeth 3rd round pick on him, maybe that's not good enough. It's sort of the reverse for Daniels, his skills are patchy - his highs higher, his lows lower. The highs offer the prospect of his being maybe more likely than Maye to be a special player, of his being a a "high-ceiling" option in that respect. The lows - both in terms of skills, background and physical build - might make him more arguably a possible bust. I don't like the third option's character - at all - and character really does matter, particularly when whomever we take on is going to have his struggles, given the weak talent around him. I guess that means either that we pick Daniels or Maye - without any way of knowing prospectively which is (will be) best, or that, given the uncertainties and the team's other needs, maybe this isn't the year to draft any QB other than maybe an "intriguing project guy" in a later round.

If we do not take a flyer on Daniels or Maye, I would NOT waste money or draft resources on some "maybe he might be good enough" vet. I'd pick up a Brisset or a Flacco who, though not likely to develop into a going-forward franchise qb, could serve as mentor for any new prospect and at least play well enough that the players around him get a legit evaluation.

Very early last year, I said that year was really about the year and years following, that it was pointless to emphasize having a great record or making the playoffs. I wouldn't be shocked or dismayed if this year turned out to be much the same, except this time maybe we have a head coach who is less interested in putting lipstick on a pig of a team by grasping at pointless wins and more interested in building a better team which can actually compete in meaningful games..