What position SHOULD the Pats draft first?

[MaineMan]

if the players at each position were all graded the same, id go with a DE.

but, im up for taking the best available player if there is a significant gap between he and the next, even if hes not a position i necessary covet

id like to obtain an OL, DE, OLB, S in the first 2 rounds. dont care what order.

I pretty much agree with all of this.

My reason for preferring a 3-4 DE (as distinct from a DE/OLB hybrid) is that I just mapped out the sack totals by position for Pats defenses going back to the 2000 season. Assuming that sack totals are at least somewhat indicative of QB pressure/backfield disruption, it turns out that the Pats' worst seasons are those in which they get below average production out of 3-4 DE and/or interior D-line positions, pretty much no matter how much production comes out of OLB/ILB spots (or how "good" the rushers are). And OLB/ILB production is notably over average when there's average or better production from 3-4 DE and interior D-line.

For the past three seasons, total sacks have been down in precisely that pattern (low D-line production). Currently, after 14 games, sack production is roughly equal to 16-game averages for OLB/ILB, but has been nearly non-existent from 3-4 DE, though the interior D-line is doing okay (or WAS doing okay until both Wright and Pryor went out with injuries).

This tends to support my hypothesis that acquiring an elite 3-4 DE is likely to help the pass rush considerably, even if NO changes were made at OLB, and would certainly augment any upgrades at OLB. BTST, ignoring 3-4 DE in favor of a "pass-rush specialist" OLB seems far less likely to be productive wrt the pass rush.

 

[Sciz]

I want JJ Watt and either Justin Houston or Aldon Smith (if he declares). Which one would require being picked first will be decided in the next few months.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Dear Prof. Rocks:

Could you please enlighten us as to why?

Sincerely,

ctpatsfan77

Dear ctpatsfan77:

Thank you for your interest in draft forecasting, your question is an astute one!

In this particular instance the key element is a shortfall in critical data needed for an educated guess. Using Belichick drafting history and patsfans.com draftnikkers probability theory, the most persistent equations to this point in December is for NE to trade with their first pick in the draft. I will be publishing the details in a future paper should you be interested.

Cordially,

Rocks, Box_0_
Department of Draftyknickers Mythology

 

[E Belichick Unum]

The position the Pats need the most is a stud pass rusher and that guy is an OLB in 3-4 scheme.

 

[b72s]

DE- Get the next Seymour

Pretty deep draft for this Iowa and Cal De's look tasty

 

[Richard Camembert]

They will go DE for the following reasons...
1) Mid 1st rounder needs to be a 3 Down player
2) T Warren recovery is unknown
3) G Warren is old
4) Ravens ran it down their throats last playoffs. Seymour was missed, they had to slide Wilfork to DE.
Pryor, Brace, Wright are situational players only.

This, assuming that there's quality at DE. Of course, I also liked Odrick and wanted NE to get him over McCourty, so...yeah.

 

[sg14]

What daft maneuvering would be considered brinkmanship???

That said, I do NOT think Watt is a top-16 talent, so if Dareus and Fairley are off the boards way too early, some dealing and brinksmanship may be in order.

Also, it is my intention to change my mind 5-8 times between now and April.

 

[Off The Grid]

That said, I do NOT think Watt is a top-16 talent, so if Dareus and Fairley are off the boards way too early, some dealing and brinkmanship may be in order.

What daft maneuvering would be considered brinkmanship???

"daft", indeed!!

Is if fair to assume that you meant to say "deft"??

Even so, you raise a very good point: What manner of BrinkmanShip might be in play??

Would it involve...Shenanigans??

HoodWinking??

BamBoozling, even??

Perhaps even ~ dare I mention it?? ~ HornSwoggling??

 

[MaineMan]

What daft maneuvering would be considered brinkmanship???

Not sure whether you intended to type "deft" or "draft". Either way, seems to me that trading down (twice, wasn't it?) before taking McCourty just before the Ravens could get him, THAT would be "brinksmanship."

Seriously, I never, ever want to find myself in a game of Texas Hold 'em against BB.

 

[PatDaPatriot]

BPA among 3-4 OLB's and ends. It looks to be a good draft for both areas, and they should be able to maneuver themselves into a position to hit on both areas...

O-line is definitely a need too. However, it doesn't look like a great year for "first round" O-linemen. I think those areas can be addressed in late round 2/round 3...

 

[sg14]

I did meam "draft maneuvering",,

Am just impressed with Patchick's choice of words, of the 1000 contributors here, not many would use the words "implicit" and "brinkmanship" in the same post.

Not sure whether you intended to type "deft" or "draft". Either way, seems to me that trading down (twice, wasn't it?) before taking McCourty just before the Ravens could get him, THAT would be "brinksmanship."

Seriously, I never, ever want to find myself in a game of Texas Hold 'em against BB.

 

[Off The Grid]

I did meam "draft maneuvering",,

Am just impressed with Patchick's choice of words, of the 1000 contributors here, not many would use the words "implicit" and "brinkmanship" in the same post.

Ayup.

PatChick's exquisite command of the language ~ and her penetrating Insight into the Game and all aspects of it ~ is pretty much ASTONISHING.

 

[NewFeep]

Patchick mesmerizes me into a stupendous torpor of bombastic proportions!

 

[Off The Grid]

Patchick mesmerizes me into a stupendous torpor of bombastic proportions!

Wow.

I'm gonna have to go with FIPPLE Word Score on that post, baby!! :rocker:

Oh! And....DITTO.

Everybody knows...

TORPORS are bad enough, as it is...

But STUPENDOUS Torpors...are quite PARALYZING.

 

[Brarrell]

BPA among 3-4 OLB's and ends. It looks to be a good draft for both areas, and they should be able to maneuver themselves into a position to hit on both areas...

O-line is definitely a need too. However, it doesn't look like a great year for "first round" O-linemen. I think those areas can be addressed in late round 2/round 3...

Couple of things I always believe what my eyes are seeing and if we want our dbacks to go to the next level we need to increase the pressure on the passer. This will make mcCourty a top flight corner as well as making Butler a much better corner. Their first 3 picks should be defense DE,OLB & CB maybe a trade here and there but this would rebuild the defense with Ty Warren coming back and he could have played with that injury but decided to make a business decision in his words. Bodden should be back so with these two and an additional 3 top defensive players i think the D will be set for the next 3-4 years no coincidence in Brady's prime. For the offense i think a beast center needs to be drafted to replace Koppin soon.

 

[ZoisKing]

OLB is a pretty easy choice at that spot. I like other players as well though and wouldn't mind going BPA, since we could probably nab an OLB with our early 2nd rounder and not lose much on talent.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I voted for DE ... we still need a 3 down DE who can set the edge. Belichick has schemed around it but we still need it.

 

[ZoisKing]

I voted for DE ... we still need a 3 down DE who can set the edge. Belichick has schemed around it but we still need it.

There is a definite need for a starting caliber DE. However, I'll follow the lead of most on this board and concede that position to Watt with the 33rd pick.

 

[MaineMan]

Couple of things I always believe what my eyes are seeing and if we want our dbacks to go to the next level we need to increase the pressure on the passer. This will make mcCourty a top flight corner as well as making Butler a much better corner. Their first 3 picks should be defense DE,OLB & CB maybe a trade here and there but this would rebuild the defense with Ty Warren coming back and he could have played with that injury but decided to make a business decision in his words. Bodden should be back so with these two and an additional 3 top defensive players i think the D will be set for the next 3-4 years no coincidence in Brady's prime. For the offense i think a beast center needs to be drafted to replace Koppin soon.

What will make Butler a much better corner:
- learning how to get his head turned
- learning how to stay close and time his contact without drawing flags
- learning how to read, position himself properly and tackle on running plays

Improved pass pressure has nothing to do with it.

 

[ZoisKing]

IMO, Butler looks like he's making plays off of good fortune and athleticism right now.

He doesn't turn his head much because he's getting beat consistently. He still has a ways to go, and the last game or so hasn't changed my opinion of him at all.