What is Rex Burkhead’s role going to be?

[IllegalContact]

With the exception of goal line and 3rd down short yardage, I think Burk and DLew are interchangeable and make sense on every down and distance

Gillislee is your primary runner and White is the primary receiver.

7th year out of college and Lewis still has not proven he can do more than 100 touches in a season

Even in the sb he nearly snapped a spring all on his own.....not really someone you can count on to put 5 months of football together

 

[RobertWeathers]

7th year out of college and Lewis still has not proven he can do more than 100 touches in a season

Even in the sb he nearly snapped a spring all on his own.....not really someone you can count on to put 5 months of football together

Sure but down/distance he can run or catch as opposed to not being a threat

Running 100 times or lasting 16 games is whole different discussion

 

[RobertWeathers]

I am with you for the most part. I think Burkhead is a more dynamic receiver and a better power runner, while Lewis is just friggin an amazing runner if there is any space at all, even a sliver.

Burkhead is a more dynamic receiver than DLew?

Not sure about that one.

 

[rochrist]

I think Lewis is the best RB we have.

I'm sure I'm in the minority, but to me, Lewis hasn't yet regained the ability he pre-injury to make guys miss.

 

[rochrist]

I'd say that your projections for Burkhead's carries/targets percentages on 300 offensive snaps are pretty much spot on. However, I still disagree about his likely ST snaps.

If Burkhead sees 300 snaps (19/game) as a regular, skill-position contributor on offense, I'd say he's far more likely to see only about 80-100 ST snaps (5-7/game), with a maximum of about 150 (9/game), and almost certainly on blocking units only - no coverage/tackling units.

First of all, these ST projections for Burkhead would match league-wide SOP usage of offensive skill players on ST, and actually exceed what the Pats have typically done, since snap-tracking began. Secondly, unless there's an injury to one or more ST specialists, it really won't be necessary for Burkhead to do more than 5-7 ST snaps/game, and probably not even that much.

If Burkhead gets up to 200 or more ST snaps for the season, that would mean he'd participated in at least one coverage/tackling unit and likely mean that his primary usage had been on ST rather than on offense, where he'd be getting only "token" snaps (7 of fewer/game). In that case, the only way he ends up with 300 offensive snaps on top of those 200 ST snaps for the season is if one or more of the other RBs is injured for several consecutive games - during which period his ST snaps/game would drop dramatically (possibly to zero) as his offensive participation increased.

Again, if you look at the game-by-game snaps counts, this was Burkhead's usage pattern in Cinci. It's been the Pats usage pattern with Bolden. And it's the typical usage pattern with offensive skill players for all the other teams in the league.

My feeling is they aren't paying him 3.15 million this year to be primarily a special teams player.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm sure I'm in the minority, but to me, Lewis hasn't yet regained the ability he pre-injury to make guys miss.

We will find out soon.

 

[Turry66]

This is it. Burkhead blows up. Been waiting since 13. Thanks Patriots!

 

[IllegalContact]

Sure but down/distance he can run or catch as opposed to not being a threat

Running 100 times or lasting 16 games is whole different discussion

A whopping 0.1 yards per carry difference

While White may not be all pro, people ridiculously overrate Lewis and durability in football is part of every discussion

 

[RobertWeathers]

A whopping 0.1 yards per carry difference

While White may not be all pro, people ridiculously overrate Lewis and durability in football is part of every discussion

I didn't even look at ypc. What split is that?

My point is DLew is not a short yardage RB.

 

[Thelonious]

Things change: players develop (or not) and each week, particularly here, sees a new game plan and so a different role for the players. When Belicheck says he doesn't know what a player's role will be, that it'll depend on the game and that the player will get the role he earns, I think he really means it. Burkhead's versatility and his newness to the team compound the ambiguity. As I said earlier, though, this lack of clarity in Burkhead's role is an advantage. We don't know his role, and neither do the opponents. I think Burkhead is gonna do really well.

As for White. I think he's shown steady improvement as a runner, seems stronger on his feet, a simpler, more decisive approach. He'll never be a "bellcow", but the opposition now has to take him somewhat seriously as a runner.

We have a really interesting bunch of RB's.

 

[maineman209]

Things change: players develop (or not) and each week, particularly here, sees a new game plan and so a different role for the players. When Belicheck says he doesn't know what a player's role will be, that it'll depend on the game and that the player will get the role he earns, I think he really means it. Burkhead's versatility and his newness to the team compound the ambiguity. As I said earlier, though, this lack of clarity in Burkhead's role is an advantage. We don't know his role, and neither do the opponents. I think Burkhead is gonna do really well.

As for White. I think he's shown steady improvement as a runner, seems stronger on his feet, a simpler, more decisive approach. He'll never be a "bellcow", but the opposition now has to take him somewhat seriously as a runner.

We have a really interesting bunch of RB's.

White got carries this pre-season only in the DET game (week-3). He had 4 solid carries for 25 yards with a longest run of 8 yards. AFAIK, he was the Pats only RB this pre-season to not get stuffed at the LOS.

While it's taken White an excruciatingly long time to develop as an NFL-level runner, it's worth noting that he had 643 carries for 4015 yards (6.2 ypa) and 45 TDs over the course of four seasons at Wisconsin. He may well be able to contribute more yards on the ground from time to time this season than fans - or opponents - expect.

 

[Simpelton]

Blount was fine last year. He was a great teammate and I'm glad he was a Patriot.

But....

What can't be overlooked is out of 8 playoff games, he scored 7 of his 8 TDs and gathered 2/3rds of his yards in 2 of them.

In the other 6 games he had 57 carries and averaged 2.73 ypc.

The defenses, the line and the interest in putting the ball in Tom's hands all played into it so I don't totally blame him.

I know the other RBs didnt exactly light the world on fire but I'll be interesting to see how Gillislee and Burk show if they can run well in the playoffs.

If Blount could consistently beat the best run defenses in the NFL, which is what you're talking about when you talk about consistent ypc in the playoffs, he wouldn't be on his 5th team right now. LeGarrette Blount did a limited job and did it well. I have no complaints about his performance.

 

[Simpelton]

My feeling is they aren't paying him 3.15 million this year to be primarily a special teams player.

That's an example of the sunk cost fallacy. They paid 3.5 million dollar for Burkhead because getting Burkhead cost 3.5 million dollars. They will then use Rex Burkhead in the way that Rex Burkhead makes himself easy to be used. Clearly they think they can get 3.5 million dollars or more of value out of Rex Burkhead. I wouldn't necessarily say that that means they think they can get it all in one place

 

[IllegalContact]

I didn't even look at ypc. What split is that?

My point is DLew is not a short yardage RB.

not a split.....overall Lewis is 4.4, White 4.3

neither is a short yardage back.....but as an RB, White is more valuable to the Pats

 

[maineman209]

That's an example of the sunk cost fallacy. They paid 3.5 million dollar for Burkhead because getting Burkhead cost 3.5 million dollars. They will then use Rex Burkhead in the way that Rex Burkhead makes himself easy to be used. Clearly they think they can get 3.5 million dollars or more of value out of Rex Burkhead. I wouldn't necessarily say that that means they think they can get it all in one place

At the end of Camp last year, the Pats traded a 5th-rounder for Mingo and his $4.1M salary. Mingo never worked out at OLB, playing a total of only 47 defensive snaps for the season. But (to his credit) worked his butt off to be a top special-teamer. I don't think it was the Pats original intention to have Mingo as ST-only, but they didn't force him into an OLB role in an attempt "to get their money's worth."

If Burkhead ends up being ST-only for 2017 for $3.15M, it won't be much different.

 

[Ring 6]

A whopping 0.1 yards per carry difference

While White may not be all pro, people ridiculously overrate Lewis and durability in football is part of every discussion

It's actually almost a yard per carry which is a lot.
White career ypc 3.7 Lewis 4.6
It is also botable that most of whites carrots come in passing downs which should elevate his ypc
It's also evident just watching the players and their abilities.

 

[RobertWeathers]

not a split.....overall Lewis is 4.4, White 4.3

neither is a short yardage back.....but as an RB, White is more valuable to the Pats

Oh I thought you meant DLew and Burk.

I would agree White is more valuable- especially with JE11 out.

DLew would be if he could stay healthy...but he can't

 

[IllegalContact]

It's actually almost a yard per carry which is a lot.
White career ypc 3.7 Lewis 4.6
It is also botable that most of whites carrots come in passing downs which should elevate his ypc
It's also evident just watching the players and their abilities.

last year with the same OL, they performed the same....in 2015, Lewis had the advantage of a healthier OL and a healthier offense overall......but then he got hurt...which he does with regularity

my point stands.....white is more valuable to this team

 

[Simpelton]

At the end of Camp last year, the Pats traded a 5th-rounder for Mingo and his $4.1M salary. Mingo never worked out at OLB, playing a total of only 47 defensive snaps for the season. But (to his credit) worked his butt off to be a top special-teamer. I don't think it was the Pats original intention to have Mingo as ST-only, but they didn't force him into an OLB role in an attempt "to get their money's worth."

If Burkhead ends up being ST-only for 2017 for $3.15M, it won't be much different.

Again I disagree that it's about getting your money's worth. That's that sunk cost fallacy speaking again.

It's about using the assets that you have in a way that makes the most possible sense. What those assets cost to acquire is almost beside the point after they're in your inventory.

Remember Belichick Is a master of economics. He knows how to separate cost from utility and is very good at putting players in a position to succeed.

 

[Nunchucks]

Burkhead is a more dynamic receiver than DLew?

Not sure about that one.

I think Burkhead is a better route runner and is a bit bigger.