What if Mac Jones and Jaylen Waddle are available at 15?

[Ring 6]

they disagree that he's a developmental project?

i don't think so......most believe he will go high in the first, but i haven't seen any/many that believe he steps into a starting role, that he needs a year, at least, to develop......

every QB not named lawrence would benefit from a redshirt year.....pretty much every QB in this draft is a 'developmental project'

They disagree he’s a 3rd rounder. Pretty much every player in every draft is a developmental player.

 

[yukon cornelius]

They disagree he’s a 3rd rounder. Pretty much every player in every draft is a developmental player.

well, no......

but many evaluate him as 2nd day talent that will go in the 1st.......QBs are in a funny spot right now

 

[Ring 6]

well, no......

but many evaluate him as 2nd day talent that will go in the 1st.......QBs are in a funny spot right now

QBs are always treated differently. It’s the only position on the field this either play every play or don’t play at all. We are only noticing it now because it’s a glaring, frightening, deficiency in our roster so we are paying more attention to it.

 

[yukon cornelius]

QBs are always treated differently. It’s the only position on the field this either play every play or don’t play at all. We are only noticing it now because it’s a glaring, frightening, deficiency in our roster so we are paying more attention to it.

in the past, we've seen a lot of the 2nd & 3rd tier QBs "slip" closer to where they were actually slotted to be picked......this year some are calling for 5 Qb's in the top 10, despite several of them being 2nd day talent guys......you're seeing a lot more reach this year if things go with what some are predicting

 

[Ring 6]

in the past, we've seen a lot of the 2nd & 3rd tier QBs "slip" closer to where they were actually slotted to be picked......this year some are calling for 5 Qb's in the top 10, despite several of them being 2nd day talent guys......you're seeing a lot more reach this year if things go with what some are predicting

Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, lance are all legitimate first round picks. Jones is debatable.
I don’t think “some are predicting” is really anything to treat as a fact at this point. Every year is different because every player is different.

 

[upstater1]

Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, lance are all legitimate first round picks. Jones is debatable.
I don’t think “some are predicting” is really anything to treat as a fact at this point. Every year is different because every player is different.

I wonder what 2nd-day talent refers to.

These top 4 can throw it as well as any QBs that have come out over the last several years.

So then, are we talking about decision-making? What are we talking about?

Obviously, the intangibles are things that not even the scouts can figure out very well. We won't know whether these top QBs have "it" until they see the field.

Sam Darnold and Sam Bradford supposedly had those intangibles. Until they didn't.

Reminder: don't draft QBs named Sam.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I think this stuff about OSU QBs is overblown.

It seems to be based on Haskins.

The other OSU QBs were not considered to be top talents. Cardale Jones was not considered one. Braxton Miller and Terrelle Pryor were considered WRs and they mainly played the option in college.

So this whole OSU makes QB busts theory is based off of one QB, Haskins. Makes no sense to me.

It's like teams should have avoided Baker Mayfield because Sam Bradford was a bust, and Landry Jones and Josh Heupel didn't make it in the NFL either. So avoid Kyler Murray too!

And while you're at it, avoid Joe Burrow because Jamarcus Russell.

Michigan QBs used to all be mediocre except until....
And Burrow was also a transfer QB to LSU

 

[luuked]

I don't have a lot of confidence in this approach.

Why?

Because of Jarrett Stidham, Danny Etling, Jacoby Brisset, Ryan Mallet, Zac Robinson, Kevin O'Connell, Matt Cassel, Kliff Klingsbury, Rohan Davey.

9 QBs taken by the Patriots post-2nd round after they landed Brady, and not a one of them ever became a regular starter in the NFL for more than 2 years.

ZERO for 9.

I grant you there are a lot of 1st rounds busts at QB in the NFL, but you have to spin that wheel. Can't be avoided. The chances of finding a mid-round QB seem minimal at best, so much so that a 50% 1st round hit rate looks really really good.

Last 5 years, the NFL is 11 for 17 in terms of hitting on QBs in the first round, and that's with me considering Darnold and Wentz as QB busts.

Those odds are tremendous compared to what happens later.

And yet is there another team that has had more "success" developing QBs where success is defined by the player having post Patriots longevity in the league ?

Cassel 107 games, Hoyer 70 games, JG 48 games, Brissett 49 games, even Mallett stuck around for a while played in 21 games and started 8.

It is clear that the players themselves had -- or still have -- flaws that prevent them from being a bone fida starter. But what they absorbed here on their way through seemingly gave them a good fundamental basis to build upon and keep finding work. Who else in the league really can say that about their organization ?

 

[upstater1]

And yet is there another team that has had more "success" developing QBs where success is defined by the player having post Patriots longevity in the league ?

Cassel 107 games, Hoyer 70 games, JG 48 games, Brissett 49 games, even Mallett stuck around for a while played in 21 games and started 8.

It is clear that the players themselves had -- or still have -- flaws that prevent them from being a bone fida starter. But what they absorbed here on their way through seemingly gave them a good fundamental basis to build upon and keep finding work. Who else in the league really can say that about their organization ?

But these are all backups. Of course backups will get some game play from time to time.

JG doesn't count because he's a second rounder and the poster clearly said we need to draft someone after the second round.

 

[luuked]

But these are all backups. Of course backups will get some game play from time to time.

JG doesn't count because he's a second rounder and the poster clearly said we need to draft someone after the second round.

My point is that despite the players having flaws that prevent them from being starters in the league a lot of them still were able to swing all the developmental work they got in NE (thanks to BB, McD/BoB, QB coaches/assistants) into longer time gigs in the league. And it doesn't look like to me that a lot of other teams -- if any -- are able to come close to that track record.

So the developmental process for QBs in NE must be one of the better ones relative to the other 31 teams.

 

[mgteich]

Talent and experience.

please tell us of your experience in working for NFL teams

 

[mgteich]

I don't know which is which, but history has shown us that only one or two of these top five will end up being worth a top 10 draft position.

I think the Pats are perfectly situated at 15. Use it on BPA, and the same in the second round. Then grab a couple of QB's later and let competition sort it out.

Let us concede that only 2 of the top five will be franchise Qb's.

It does NOT, does NOT follow that the proper response is to simply wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and EXPECT to find a franchise quarterback there.

 

[BTTA]

Let us concede that only 2 of the top five will be franchise Qb's.

It does NOT, does NOT follow that the proper response is to simply wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and EXPECT to find a franchise quarterback there.

You know that's not what I'm saying. I'm just playing odds. I don't want to give up massive draft capital to take a QB that's a 40% chance at best. I think by taking two later on, there's a 25% chance one of them will become a good NFL starter, and we get to shore up other positions. You can quibble with me on numbers, of course.

 

[mgteich]

You know that's not what I'm saying. I'm just playing odds. I don't want to give up massive draft capital to take a QB that's a 40% chance at best. I think by taking two later on, there's a 25% chance one of them will become a good NFL starter, and we get to shore up other positions. You can quibble with me on numbers, of course.

YOUR PLAN
Pick a QB later, with the expectation that he has a 25% chance of "becoming a good NFL starter.
====================
As the owner, I would consider firing the GM who had such an approach. Your plan has us having a more than75% chance of starting Cam or Stidham, depending on how long it take the later pick from becoming a starter.

 

[upstater1]

You know that's not what I'm saying. I'm just playing odds. I don't want to give up massive draft capital to take a QB that's a 40% chance at best. I think by taking two later on, there's a 25% chance one of them will become a good NFL starter, and we get to shore up other positions. You can quibble with me on numbers, of course.

11 of 17 over the last 5 years. (2 of the busts are Darnold and Wentz).

 

[Zuma]

Can we draft a QB with every pick? Would that not increase our chances of landing a quality starter? QB’s as far as they eyes can see...how about that?

 

[mgteich]

Can we draft a QB with every pick? Would that not increase our chances of landing a quality starter? QB’s as far as they eyes can see...how about that?

drafting 2 QB's seems right

 

[Lansdowne]

Just for exercise, here are the current starting NFL QBs and where they were drafted

BUF - Josh Allen (1st round)
MIA - Tua Tagovailoa (1st round)
NE - Cam Newton (1st round)
NYJ - Sam Darnold (1st round)

BAL - Lamar Jackson (1st round)
CIN - Joe Burrows (1st round)
CLE - Baker Mayfield (1st round)
PIT - Ben Roethlisberger (1st round)

HOU - Deshaun Watson (1st round)
IND - Carson Wentz (1st round)
JAX - Gardner Minshew (6th round)
TEN - Ryan Tannehill (1st round)

DEN - Drew Lock (2nd round)
KC - Patrick Mahomes (1st round)
LAC - Justin Herbert (1st round)
LV - Derek Carr (2nd round)

DAL - Dak Prescott (4th round)
NYG - Daniel Jones (1st round)
PHI - Jalen Hurts (2nd round)
WAS - Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th round)

CHI - Andy Dalton (2nd round)
DET - Jared Goff (1st round)
GB - Aaron Rodgers (1st round)
MIN - Kirk Cousins (4th round)

ATL - Matt Ryan (1st round)
CAR - Teddy Bridgewater (1st round)
NO - Jameis Winston (1st round)
TB - Tom Brady (6th round)

ARI - Kyler Murray (1st round)
LAR - Matthew Stafford (1st round)
SEA - Russell Wilson (3rd round)
SF - Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd round)

And that’s while considering that the Jaguars are almost certainly getting their own first rounder in Trevor Lawrence, so we’ll be adding him to that list soon. But yeah it’s interesting to see the majority of current starting quarterbacks have a first round pedigree. Guys like Tom Brady are a special exception.

 

[lancerman]

Just for exercise, here are the current starting NFL QBs and where they were drafted

BUF - Josh Allen (1st round)
MIA - Tua Tagovailoa (1st round)
NE - Cam Newton (1st round)
NYJ - Sam Darnold (1st round)

BAL - Lamar Jackson (1st round)
CIN - Joe Burrows (1st round)
CLE - Baker Mayfield (1st round)
PIT - Ben Roethlisberger (1st round)

HOU - Deshaun Watson (1st round)
IND - Carson Wentz (1st round)
JAX - Gardner Minshew (6th round)
TEN - Ryan Tannehill (1st round)

DEN - Drew Lock (2nd round)
KC - Patrick Mahomes (1st round)
LAC - Justin Herbert (1st round)
LV - Derek Carr (2nd round)

DAL - Dak Prescott (4th round)
NYG - Daniel Jones (1st round)
PHI - Jalen Hurts (2nd round)
WAS - Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th round)

CHI - Andy Dalton (2nd round)
DET - Jared Goff (1st round)
GB - Aaron Rodgers (1st round)
MIN - Kirk Cousins (4th round)

ATL - Matt Ryan (1st round)
CAR - Teddy Bridgewater (1st round)
NO - Jameis Winston (1st round)
TB - Tom Brady (6th round)

ARI - Kyler Murray (1st round)
LAR - Matthew Stafford (1st round)
SEA - Russell Wilson (3rd round)
SF - Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd round)

And that’s while considering that the Jaguars are almost certainly getting their own first rounder in Trevor Lawrence, so we’ll be adding him to that list soon. But yeah it’s interesting to see the majority of current starting quarterbacks have a first round pedigree. Guys like Tom Brady are a special exception.

The odds of getting a QB in the first round are just significantly higher than at any point. Even hitting in the 2nd or 3rd is like less than half the rate than grabbing a top half of the first round QB

 

[lancerman]

You know that's not what I'm saying. I'm just playing odds. I don't want to give up massive draft capital to take a QB that's a 40% chance at best. I think by taking two later on, there's a 25% chance one of them will become a good NFL starter, and we get to shore up other positions. You can quibble with me on numbers, of course.

Terrible idea.