What happens if the Pats do not make 2020 crazy Draft Day Trades? Who do we get?

[DW Toys]

Just playing a little game here. Let's see if we would have had a better draft class. I did tweak some of the picks by dropping down lower in most cases by a few picks to avoid duplication:

#23 Round 1: Kenneth Murray LB
#87 Round 3: Jennings DE (stays the same)
#98 Round 3: Malik Harrison ILB
#100 Round 3: Dalton Keene TE (moved down only one pick)
#125 Round 4: James Morgan QB
#139 Round 4: Antonio Gandy-Golden WR (moved down 3 picks. Best WR available there)
#147 Round 5: Bradlee Anae Edge (was steal for Cowboys. Moved down 7 picks)
#195 Round 6: Herron OT (stays the same)
#204 Round 6: Maluia LB (stays the same)
#212 Round 6: Hunter Bryant TE (was not Drafted????. Choose him just because. Steal here too. Rated a 2nd or 3rd rounder)
#213 Round 6: Geno Stone S (moved down 6 picks. From Iowa. Very good playmaker. BB could get the 411 from pal Farentz. Chung II)
#241 Round 7: Sam Sloman K (moved down 7 picks)

O.K. Sports Fans. Look at this board with minor tweaks. Which Draft would you rather have?

DW Toys

 

[Patsgofor4]

What's done is done. I'm on to virtual OTAs.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Believe Harrison Bryant went r4 to Cleveland

 

[Hyped]

If my Aunt had a you know what, she would be my Uncle....

 

[captain stone]

Well, since you asked... (from the Draft forum)

Here's my What the Incompetent Feckin Idiots Should've Done re-draft, 2020 edition:
(including trade-back But NOT including those feckin horrible, Horrible trade-ups)

2-37: TE Cole Kmet
In a normal year, with a normal TE room, I would've taken the BPA at a position where we could always use some more juice - DE Yetur Gross Matos - but Kmet, as a middish 2nd-round talent, still isn't a real big reach here anyway, though I definitely would've taken WR Brandon Aiyuk here if he had still been available...

3-71: OT/G Joshua Jones
Best Player Available (with Zach Baun) Regardless Of Position, and boy could we really use the help there...4-position versatility makes him an immediate game-day active...Marcus Cannon understudy now, starting RT very, very soon...I also might've considered either Chase Claypool or Van Jefferson here had either of them been available, but I probably would've just stayed with Jones and counted my blessings anyway...

3-87: LB Ducking Fugger/Josh Uche/Malik Harrison
If the first two names, Over-Drafted as they were, are gone by #87, still No Big Deal: Harrison might be better than either of them anyway...

3-98: DT Leki Fotu
I've mocked him at this very spot numerous times...Best DT available...immediate Danny Shelton replacement...and Fat Thor Still Feckin SUCKS...

3-100 Adam Trautman
Not a real big fan of Gabriel Davis - the best available WR - at this spot...I am however a Real Big fan of Trautman (you know, the 2ND-BEST TE in the Entire Feckin Draft?) at this spot...TE position is now Fixed...You're welcome...

4-125 WR Gabriel Davis
Now's the time when Pick matches Talent matches Need (i.e.: Maximum Value) at the WR position ... I missed-out on some good WRs earlier, so there's absolutely No Feckin Doubt about whom I'm going to take here...

4-139 Slot CB Amik Robertson
I would've Gladly taken him at 125 if the WR picks had fallen more favorably earlier in the draft, so I'm delighted that he's still available here, though I was very tempted to consider one of the still-available DEs Curtis Weaver, Bradley Anae & Trevis Gipson...

5-172 DE Bradley Anae
Got one of those aforementioned DEs a Full Round later, very lucky indeed...BPAROP...Defense looking pretty good so far (LB, DT, Slot CB, and now DE)...I just need a Free Safety & another LB...

6-195 WR Isaiah Hodgins
Would have no problem with Jimmy Proche here also, or even Quez Watkins, but seeing that our first WR is a sideline-runner from a smaller conference, I'll now take the one who has more middle-field experience from a bigger conference...He's also a legacy pick, with smarts & great hands, and we all know how Bill loves him some of those ...He's a 4.6-forty guy, but his agility as shown during the combine might be better than he's given credit for having ...

6-204 Safety JR Reed
He went undrafted, but he's more than worthy of this selection...First-Team All-American...smart ...played in a program that is currently one of Bill's favorites...Not a clunker athletically either, unlike other Pats DBs we could mention who went much, Much, MUCH higher than he did...

6-212 C/G Darryl Williams
I had considered Jake Hanson for the last couple of picks, but I couldn't justify taking him ahead of either of the two above...Williams like Reed went undrafted, but he's without question the Best C/G Available, and we still need a Mongo replacement/Andrews understudy...

6-213 LB Marcus Bailey
Part 2 of my LB double-dip...If he's close enough all the way back from his knee injury, this could be a steal...Also considered Carter Coughlin, Casey Toohill & Joe Bachie here, and wouldn't really argue much if someone wanted one of those three instead...But I do really like Bailey's potential sideline-to-sideline game...

7-230: There are so many good players still available here, and I've already accomplished my pre-draft mission of double-dipping at TE, WR, OL & LB while acquiring depth at DT, DE & Day 3 DBs, so y'all can have fun with either QB, PK, RB...or...perhaps...the Legacy of All Legacy picks: TE Thaddeus Son of Randy Moss? It would be overkill at the position I realize, but Moss could play more often in the backfield as a Big H while Kmet/Trautman play more in-line and Flanker-type roles...our short-yardage game should be much improved at the very least...


There you have it...That's the list; there is no other but this one...You're Welcome.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Curious on what made you pick Maluia. Just wondering how and where he will be used

 

[scott99]

Just playing a little game here. Let's see if we would have had a better draft class. I did tweak some of the picks by dropping down lower in most cases by a few picks to avoid duplication:

#23 Round 1: Kenneth Murray LB
#87 Round 3: Jennings DE (stays the same)
#98 Round 3: Malik Harrison ILB
#100 Round 3: Dalton Keene TE (moved down only one pick)
#125 Round 4: James Morgan QB
#139 Round 4: Antonio Gandy-Golden WR (moved down 3 picks. Best WR available there)
#147 Round 5: Bradlee Anae Edge (was steal for Cowboys. Moved down 7 picks)
#195 Round 6: Herron OT (stays the same)
#204 Round 6: Maluia LB (stays the same)
#212 Round 6: Hunter Bryant TE (was not Drafted????. Choose him just because. Steal here too. Rated a 2nd or 3rd rounder)
#213 Round 6: Geno Stone S (moved down 6 picks. From Iowa. Very good playmaker. BB could get the 411 from pal Farentz. Chung II)
#241 Round 7: Sam Sloman K (moved down 7 picks)

O.K. Sports Fans. Look at this board with minor tweaks. Which Draft would you rather have?

DW Toys

I would take this draft over what we did, 1000%

 

[Sciz]

I don’t get it. Is this what you would have done or what you think Belichick would have done with those picks? It looks like a weird mix of the two.

 

[luuked]

Just playing a little game here. Let's see if we would have had a better draft class. I did tweak some of the picks by dropping down lower in most cases by a few picks to avoid duplication:

#23 Round 1: Kenneth Murray LB
#87 Round 3: Jennings DE (stays the same)
#98 Round 3: Malik Harrison ILB
#100 Round 3: Dalton Keene TE (moved down only one pick)
#125 Round 4: James Morgan QB
#139 Round 4: Antonio Gandy-Golden WR (moved down 3 picks. Best WR available there)
#147 Round 5: Bradlee Anae Edge (was steal for Cowboys. Moved down 7 picks)
#195 Round 6: Herron OT (stays the same)
#204 Round 6: Maluia LB (stays the same)
#212 Round 6: Hunter Bryant TE (was not Drafted????. Choose him just because. Steal here too. Rated a 2nd or 3rd rounder)
#213 Round 6: Geno Stone S (moved down 6 picks. From Iowa. Very good playmaker. BB could get the 411 from pal Farentz. Chung II)
#241 Round 7: Sam Sloman K (moved down 7 picks)

O.K. Sports Fans. Look at this board with minor tweaks. Which Draft would you rather have?

DW Toys

The reason this entire exercise is so futile is because you are using hindsight of who was available where to optimize for whatever metric you chose to follow.

But when you pick Murray at #23 there is no guarantee that Jennings is still there at #87 at the time you make the pick. Similarly when you pick Harrison at #98 there is no guarantee that Keene is there at #100. And. so. on.

The lack of this kind of information is why teams move up and pay a premium on top.

 

[DW Toys]

Believe Harrison Bryant went r4 to Cleveland

MY BAD, I meant Hunter Byant "Washington tight end Hunter Byant caught 52 passes for 825 yards and three touchdowns last year, making it the second-most productive season by a tight end in school history. He was named first-team all-conference, second-team All-American and a finalist for the John Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end".
Fixed it.
DW Toys

Curious on what made you pick Maluia. Just wondering how and where he will be used

Just filled in picks at the New England pre-draft slots and there were three and Maluia was one of those. I kept all of BBs picks it they were in the right order (Jennings and Herron were the other two) .
I can't explain why BB did what he did. He basically was working with the same materials the Fan/ Draftnicks had other than calls to the college coaching staff.
This was one Draft where the Fans had as much intel as the Teams. The Teams were working bland in many cases.

My point was with other than some minor tweaks, if he would have left the Draft play out, the picks would have been better. How they work out after a fair 3-year assessment?............

Remember only 17%-19% upon an average of every NFL Draft class is still with their Drafted Team after a fair three-year evaluation. Some Teams blow up the average with an exceptional Draft but come back to earth. It's the bad Teams that keep the most players because they have to.

Round it off at 20%. So if say four of the players in this Draft are on the Pats roster in 2023, this was a successful pick because less than three would be average.
The number do NOT count replaceable roster fillers.
Our 2017 Draft Class included Rivers, Gracia, Wise and McDermott. Gracia and McDermott are gone. Rivers has been a bust because he can't stay healthy and Wise is a replaceable roster filler and my guess does NOT make the Pats 2020 Season Roster. So would a 0% success rate be the number here?

I guess what I am saying is the Pats needed to make home runs in this Draft. They went for bunt singles. Yes injuries are a tough factor here.

I am guessing that by year three in this draft perhaps we luck out with 4 roster wins of this Draft.

DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

The reason this entire exercise is so futile is because you are using hindsight of who was available where to optimize for whatever metric you chose to follow.

But when you pick Murray at #23 there is no guarantee that Jennings is still there at #87 at the time you make the pick. Similarly when you pick Harrison at #98 there is no guarantee that Keene is there at #100. And. so. on.

The lack of this kind of information is why teams move up and pay a premium on top.

Understand your contrarian retort here and it is a fair point Cousin.
I was projecting who and what the Pats could have had if BB decided to stand pat with his picks. It was done in this little game, with the understanding that all other picks by the other 31 would remain the same (other than noted tweaks)
It was just a fun exercise to see if the made-up Draft class (on paper) would have surpassed his picks. Because we needed home runs in this Draft. I don't see one. I see three or four definite maybes.
I think that as example, Kenneth Murray was a blue-chip Draftee and as much as I like Dugger, one might gamble in three years Murray will be a top player in the League.
I would predict Harrison starting over Bentley, Gandy-Golden would be perhaps at the Least your #3 WR and maybe, just maybe Morgan can compete with Stidham. I think Anae is a better pass rusher than Uche but that is a wash perhaps. Watch the Senior Bowl. Uche and Anae were on the field at the same time. They both played well but Anae played better.
These are IMO and all of these are just kids. Will they work out as NFL players?

DW Toys

 

[luuked]

Understand your contrarian retort here and it is a fair point Cousin.

I am not really sure what's contrarian about my statement. It is simply a matter of fact that part of what makes the draft more complicated than a typical mathematical optimization problem is that you don't know what players will still be available the next time you pick.

Point being the only honest way to make a redraft is to somehow avoid knowing who was taken when. And that simulation doesn't even allow for trades.

Either way I don't want to take the fun out of it for you but given the knowledge of who was available for how long BB himself would easily surpass the actual draft 10 out of 10 times. Maybe that way we'd uncover who that mystical third player was they wanted to take on day two in addition to Dugger and Uche.

 

[n6249c]

This time it’s even worse than that. Everyone knows what players were available the first time you picked. And Belichick chose to not take any one of them.
So at the very first step you’ve made it clear you’re not trying to draft a Patriots team, you’re just drafting your own egotistical idea of what Bill Belichick should be doing if he only understood football as well as you.

I am not really sure what's contrarian about my statement. It is simply a matter of fact that part of what makes the draft more complicated than a typical mathematical optimization problem is that you don't know what players will still be available the next time you pick.

Point being the only honest way to make a redraft is to somehow avoid knowing who was taken when. And that simulation doesn't even allow for trades.

Either way I don't want to take the fun out of it for you but given the knowledge of who was available for how long BB himself would easily surpass the actual draft 10 out of 10 times. Maybe that way we'd uncover who that mystical third player was they wanted to take on day two in addition to Dugger and Uche.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I am not really sure what's contrarian about my statement. It is simply a matter of fact that part of what makes the draft more complicated than a typical mathematical optimization problem is that you don't know what players will still be available the next time you pick.

That said, I think Belichick et al also spend time trying to game out the positions other teams will draft. After all he had a trade in place with Houston in 2015 but canceled when Malcom Brown fell to 32.

 

[DarrylS]

Hind sight is 20-20 or so they say..

 

[Patsgofor4]

Well, since you asked... (from the Draft forum)

Here's my What the Incompetent Feckin Idiots Should've Done re-draft, 2020 edition:
(including trade-back But NOT including those feckin horrible, Horrible trade-ups)

2-37: TE Cole Kmet
In a normal year, with a normal TE room, I would've taken the BPA at a position where we could always use a little more juice - DE Yetur Gross Matos - but Kmet, as a middish 2nd-round talent, still isn't a real big reach here anyway, though I definitely would've taken WR Brandon Aiyuk here if he had still been available...

3-71: OT/G Joshua Jones
Best Player Available (with Zach Baun) Regardless Of Position, and boy could we really use the help there...4-position versatility makes him an immediate game-day active...Marcus Cannon understudy/replacement...I also might've considered either Chase Claypool or Van Jefferson had either of them been available here, but I probably would've just stayed with Jones and counted my blessings anyway...

3-87: LB Ducking Fugger/Josh Uche/Malik Harrison
If the first two names, Over-Drafted as they were, are gone by #87, still No Big Deal: Harrison might be better than either of them anyway...

3-98: DT Leki Fotu
I've mocked him at this very spot numerous times...Best DT available...immediate Danny Shelton replacement...and Fat Thor Still Feckin SUCKS...

3-100 Adam Trautman
Not a real big fan of Gabriel Davis - the best available WR - at this spot...I am however a Real Big fan of Trautman (you know, the 2ND-BEST TE in the Entire Feckin Draft?) at this spot...TE position now Fixed...You're welcome...

4-125 WR Gabriel Davis
Now's the time when Pick matches Talent matches Need (i.e.: Maximum Value) at the WR position...I missed-out on some good WRs earlier, so there's absolutely No Feckin Doubt about whom I'm going to take here...

4-139 Slot CB Amik Robertson
I would've Gladly taken him at 125 if the WR picks had fallen more favorably earlier in the draft, so I'm delighted that he's still available here, though I was very tempted to consider one of the still-available DEs Curtis Weaver, Bradley Anae & Trevis Gipson...

5-172 DE Bradley Anae
Got one of those aforementioned DEs a Full Round later...very lucky...BPAROP...Defense looking pretty good so far (LB, DT, Slot CB, and now DE)...I just need a Free Safety & another LB...

6-195 WR Isaiah Hodgins
Would have no problem with Jimmy Proche here also, or even Quez Watkins, but seeing that our first WR is a sideline-runner, I'll take the one who has more middle-field experience...He's also a legacy pick, with smarts & great hands, and we all know how Little Billy loves him some of those ...He's a 4.6-forty guy, but his agility as shown during the combine might be better than he's given credit for having ...

6-204 Safety JR Reed
He went undrafted, but he's more than worthy of this selection...All-American...smart...played in a program that is currently one of Bill's favorites...Not a clunker athletically either, unlike other DBs we could mention who went much, Much, MUCH higher than he did...

6-212 C/G Darryl Williams
Was considering Jake Hanson for the last couple of picks but couldn't justify taking him ahead of the two above...Williams like Reed went undrafted, but he's without question the Best C/G Available, and we still need a Mongo replacement/Andrews understudy...

6-213 LB Marcus Bailey
Part 2 of my LB double-dip...If he's close enough all the way back from his knee injury, this could be a Steal...Also considered Carter Coughlin, Casey Toohill & Joe Bachie here, and wouldn't really argue much if someone wanted one of those three instead...But I do really like Bailey's potential sideline-to-sideline game...

7-230: There are so many good players still available here, and I've already accomplished my pre-draft mission of double-dipping at TE, WR, OL & LB while acquiring depth at DT, DE & Day 3 DBs, so y'all can have fun with either QB, PK, RB...or...perhaps...the Legacy of All Legacy picks: TE Thaddeus Son of Randy Moss? It would be overkill at the position I realize, but Moss could play more often in the backfield as a Big H while Kmet/Trautman play more in-line and Flanker-type roles...our short-yardage game should be much improved at the very least...


There you have it...That's the list; there is no other but this one...You're Welcome.

If there is a God, all of these players will end up being total dogsh*t, and most of the players the Pats pick will be valuable players for years to come, just to shut this Adam Jones-level miserable puke up.

Dude, don't you get tired of going negative about the Pats roster moves with EVERY SINGLE POST? We do. I don't know went on in your childhood, or what is currently going on in your life, but I hope that you overcome it, for your sake, and ours.

 

[zimmy]

I prefer the Pats draft to either of the alternatives in this thread.

Secondly, knowing the way the Pats draft I would strongly suspect that if they were forced to stay at 23 it might have been Dugger there too anyway. They clearly loved him and (I forget where I read this), preferred him to McKinney. Last year, the reporting was that they had 3 top guys on their board for 32: Harry, Williams and Tavai, and they would have taken Williams at 32 if Harry wasn't available.

 

[slam]

If the Pats didn’t make all these trades they would have drafted... these same players you didn’t like. Or different players you wouldn’t have liked. Because they’d still be doing the evaluations and drafting.