Patriots Pregame Thread We're on to Cincinnati

[One-If-By-Sea]

Sorry, meant the Titans. So if you're taking that job, you give up on Ward before even taking it?

If the team has worked with Ward for a year and their assessment is not positive. People like to talk about Geno Smith and Sam Darnold, but both are OK, nothing special. Commonly a team knows after a year how good a QB will be. Few QBs become top QBs in Y3. Josh Allen did it, but there are 20 to 100 others that didn't. Statistically if a team gives up on a QB after a year there is a very low % chance that QB will ever be Top 5.

 

[Nikolai]

My understanding is that we're not really playing man because of the LB corps' liability in man coverage, so we're nerfing the strengths of our corners.

Statistically, it seems complicated because you can draw both positive and negative conclusions based on which stats you favor. That probably means we're middle of the pack, which looks bad when the run stuffing is elite.

We're 9-2, so it's ok...for now.

 

[mike_usagisan]

If the team has worked with Ward for a year and their assessment is not positive. People like to talk about Geno Smith and Sam Darnold, but both are OK, nothing special. Commonly a team knows after a year how good a QB will be. Few QBs become top QBs in Y3. Josh Allen did it, but there are 20 to 100 others that didn't. Statistically if a team gives up on a QB after a year there is a very low % chance that QB will ever be Top 5.

Yeah. I guess I just wouldn't have a lot of faith in the staff of the Titans this season to make that determination. If I'm a good HC candidate and I'm considering taking the job, I'm making my own determination going back to Ward's college days. If I don't like Ward, I'm going to be very leery of taking the job as ownership needs to have bought into scrapping Ward before I even think about signing on the dotted line. But more than likely, ownership is making keeping Ward contingent for HC candidates.

 

[BobDigital]

BTW subtle thing but important Perine is doubtful too... No one is bringing it up cause he is just a change of pace RB. But after him their RB room falls off quick. They are basically going into this game with Chase Brown who is obviously a good RB... but no one else of note. Whenever he comes out for a rest, the substitute doesn't need much respect. Just tossing that out there are more fuel for the fire of why we should beat this under manned team.

Gonzo with a safety on Higgins, cause why even give him a chance. Hold him to zero catches all game. Be aware when Brown is in. Dare them to do anything else.

 

[Pape]

TDs can be a very misleading stat is isolation. For instance, the Pats are tied for lowest in the NFL with rushing TDs surrendered at 4 (in fact technically we are ahead as we surrendered 4 in 11 games vs 4 in 10 like LAR). They are a hard team to punch it in on near the goal line. That being the when it comes to first and goal teams will be passer a lot more. I also think for some teams this makes defensive passer rating look better or worse than it actually is.

One of my favorite stats in defensive passing is YPA. We're 15th in the league. So middle of the pack. I also look at interceptions, particularly interceptions per play. But they are inconsistent. More than anything you just want to know that your team has the ability to capitalize on bad football.

I disagree strongly bob. The number of passing TDs we have let up is not a misleading stat.

People may use that data in a misleading manner, but the stat is not misleading at all. it is, quite literally, what it is - the umber of times opposing receivers have crossed the goal line.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Yeah. I guess I just wouldn't have a lot of faith in the staff of the Titans this season to make that determination. If I'm a good HC candidate and I'm considering taking the job, I'm making my own determination going back to Ward's college days. If I don't like Ward, I'm going to be very leery of taking the job as ownership needs to have bought into scrapping Ward before I even think about signing on the dotted line. But more than likely, ownership is making keeping Ward contingent for HC candidates.

What do you think Mayo and AVP said about Drake Maye? Everyone knew he was good. It is not rocket science. Finding the players that fit the scheme is more difficult.

If you read Maye's college scouting reports he has fixed almost everything, footwork, pocket presence, accuracy, etc. you can see that watching the All-22. This stuff is not rocket science that only a few people can I understand. It is not that hard.

 

[mike_usagisan]

What do you think Mayo and AVP said about Drake Maye? Everyone knew he was good. It is not rocket science. Finding the players that fit the scheme is more difficult.

If you read Maye's college scouting reports he has fixed almost everything, footwork, pocket presence, accuracy, etc. you can see that watching the All-22. This stuff is not rocket science that only a few people can I understand. It is not that hard.

Right, but the case for Ward isn’t as clear cut as Maye. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Ward is trash. There’s a reason he was drafted so high. And as a coach, you need to know if Ward can be teachable to be good or not. And is Mendoza (or whoever) going to be better? I just don’t think it’s so cut and dry.

 

[signbabybrady]

Burrow going to play now

 

[farn]

Burrow going to play now

Seems as though : full participant on a Wednesday.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Well Vrabel, Cowden, Stretch, Wolf and Highsmith did turn over like half of the roster. But it does show what solid coaching/personnel can do in a season or two.

Does Vrabel get involved with FA's and trades. Or mainly Wolf? It feels like Vrabel reports directly to Kraft.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Everyone thought the

Everyone thought the Pats roster stunk too.

The Patriots do not have a history of bad ownership.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Does Vrabel get involved with FA's and trades. Or mainly Wolf? It feels like Vrabel reports directly to Kraft.

I don’t know, but I’d be shocked if Vrabel isn’t involved (and probably has final say) over FA and trades.

 

[Brotherblues]

Quite interesting...

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Right, but the case for Ward isn’t as clear cut as Maye. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Ward is trash. There’s a reason he was drafted so high. And as a coach, you need to know if Ward can be teachable to be good or not. And is Mendoza (or whoever) going to be better? I just don’t think it’s so cut and dry.

No-one said it was clear cut. If you remember, the question was could the Titans pick a QB two years in a row? The answer was it might happen. Not sure how you got to "I don't think it's cut and dry".

 

[mgteich]

Quite interesting...

How can Burrow be on IR and also be practicing?

 

[WinstonSmith]

How can Burrow be on IR and also be practicing?

After being cleared to practice, he's in the 21 day window to either play or go on season ending IR. During this period he's still technically on IR and doesn't count towards the roster.

 

[patfanken]

I am going to post about Kyle Williams. Feel free to dislike as it won't be completely positive.

Does anyone remember that time Brady said to Galloway 'It's not that F**king complicated'? Fans seemed to agree. He was here for 10+ weeks at that point i think and not getting it. This signing we were all hyped about just didn't work out cause he couldn't play in this system.

Williams has had a problem with this most of the year. He had a huge misread last game on a relatively straight forward read on a pass. I know he's a rookie so is in a different situation than Galloway, and others who simply couldn't figure out the offense... but at some point you just worry, will he ever get it? It's been months of this and he is still making mistakes on very easy reads. Some not as obvious, but even easier ones.

Yes you can pull out examples of his speed and getting off the line clean. We know he can do that. That's why we drafted him cause we know he has that talent. We know he has the talent to play in this league, but can he run in this system or not? His ability to beat his guy off the line and burn him if he gets behind him has nothing to do with his ability to be in the right spot at the right time. They are completely different problems. And I am getting kind of tired seeing them brought up in his defense. Cause that is not the problem.

As much as many Pats fans love this system it does have the occasional by product of some WRs who would be otherwise good just never seeming to be able to get it for one reason or another. I know people will bring up Boutte, but I'm pretty sure that wasn't so much the system as he needed to fill out his skill set. Williams has the skill set already, that much is clear. You get the ball in his hands and he can make things happen. His TD catch was so fun to watch and showed a hint of what could be. But the impressive part of that play was not his route. He ran basically a crosser in a straight line. Not really so much a read but pure talent and a good pass.

My expectations for this team have moved as the year has gone on. At first it was play off experience. Then a decent play off run. Now I am not expecting more but hoping for it as it seems possible. But the fact is when i look at this team up and down the roster, they don't have the ability to win it all as they stand today IMO.

Drake is great, I think ther D is good and will keep them in it vs most anyone no matter what DVOA or other tools say. But the fact is when the rubber meets the road and you look at it objectively they are lacking some talent compared to other top teams. Boutte is pretty good. Henry is okay. Hollins is a solid contributor. But Diggs as good as he is only plays 50% of the snaps. Even if that goes up in the post season it won't be enough. Their OL is hopefully going to improve more before crunch time, but it is still a weakness.

This teams vs good Ds is going to stall, and they are going to have backwards plays. I go back to that Browns game. Yeah they score 32 points, but it took 13 drives and their bad offense which couldn't stay on the field allowed that many chances, plus we were gifted an easy TD with the ball basically at the 5. The other 2 touchdowns happened cause those drives had big plays. Henderson with a big run. Maye with a big run. Boutte with a big catch. Huge explosive field position changing plays.

The fact is when you look at the Pats offense i think when they get into the playoffs and the conditions get harder and Ds get better, they are going to have serious problems with their lack of star talent. Maye has made it work for much of the year, But can he do long sustained TD drives vs Denver or Philly or LAR or SEA? IDK. I don't love it though with our OL.

This offense badly needs both Henderson and Williams to help pitch in on making explosive plays. Not just Maye putting it into a bucket 40 yards down field into tight coverage when his line holds out long enough. They need an RB who can bust a simple run outside and pick up 40 or 50. They need a WR who can turn a 10 yard gain into a 40 yard gain with speed and quickness after the catch. I really think to win it all they need both these guys contributing. Henderson is really coming into his own. I think he will be there, but i don't think it will be enough.

If we want to not only get to the super bowl but win it, we need a WR who can turn a pretty good play into a TD on sheer speed and talent. Williams (I believe) is the only WR on this roster capable of it. In there run he's going to need to come through huge at some point. I think Vrabel knows this and it's why he keeps running him out despite the miscommunications and lack of production. He knows for this team to reach the next level Williams needs to be not just a distraction who keeps the safety honest, but a difference maker. I hope it clicks. Even if not this year i don't plan to call him a bust. But i will not feel good if he doesn't get it together come playoff time even with the #1 seed. I think they badly need a Williams shot in the arm to level the playing field.

You know I love a long post, Bob. And I don't disagree with you about your criticisms of Williams. But..

You should know and we have seen WR's who have taken time to "get" this offensive system. Chad Ocho was a 10,000 yd receiver when he came here and never got it. That happens and it is WAY too early to determine if Williams will join him. He has time and a QB who is still on a learning curve himself. Not a Brady who at that point had the patience of a gnat with receivers who weren't where they were supposed to be. And he had earned that right to be that way.

But that was then and this is now. Williams has raw speed, and exceptional quickness and the ability to get off the LOS against tough man coverage. Those are skills we need on this team and at this point he is the only guy who has them.

I think people here understand it hasn't been the product we had HOPED we'd get. But it is WAY too early to declare it a failed experiment. Clearly, he doesn't have the confidence of his QB and OC...YET. But we are barely past the half way mark of season 1 for this kid. This kid has the talent you wait for at least 2 full years for, and probably 3. It took Boutte 3 seasons to breakout.

 

[PatsFan2]

Quite interesting...

Can he be activated Sunday??

 

[Toofy]

One nice trivia. Drake shares his middle name Lee with Burrow.

Only 2 active Q s with middle name Lee.

Robert Griffin also had Lee as middle name.

 

[Brotherblues]

Can he be activated Sunday??

Can he? Yes. They don't have to say in advance and can wait til the last minute to activate him.

Will it happen? Now that's a question with a whole buncha other questions around it.

I'll just say it's not normal to use first team reps on a guy you're not going to play.

Bottom line is what we assumed to be a certainty (Burrow not playing) is now officially anyone's guess.