Welcome to the New England Patriots, Safety Duron Harmon

[Gumby]

Duron Harmon vs Arkansas 2012 - YouTube

Pretty decent. Couple big hits, an INT, always in the area, looks like a really good tackler.

didnt see that myself - Great hitter yeah, the two sideline hits one causing a drop were great. But he didnt appear to do much in run stoppage (seemed to get easily caught up in traffic and committ to run blitzs at wrong time&place. One of his pass blitzs left the center of field vacant (turned into a deep pass TD) and he never came anywhere close to the backfield - poor decision (if it was his).

Also, His almost INT showed a lot more than the one (you mentioned) he actually got credit for - although the 'Gift' INT did show him maybe having quick hands [some PR skills maybe (although his 40 time might make that dubious).]


Seems like a much better coverage -pass intimidator than run support S.
- looks like ST for sure, i guess replace Ebner on depth chart; but I dont see him displacing either wilson (at least this year). Wait and see he is camp competition and I wanted a S so it checks the block - even if not a name I expected.

 

[tombonneau]

Post any rating that means something that didn't have him in the top three rounds.

Oh wait, neither of us have any access to the ratings that mean anything.

Obviously different teams have different ratings for players, but I'm quite sure when coaches try to gauge perceived league-wide value for players they lean on these types of ratings as well as whatever info is gleaned from their professional peers of other teams.

And a lower-rated safety like Harmon isn't some kind of polarizing player that would be drastically under- or over-valued by different teams, like a talented kid with character concerns or someone like Lattimore you have to project coming back from injury. And even if you're wrong and someone else drafts him, you've only missed out on Duron Harmon, not a high upside type like Lattimore.

IMO, BB was a victim of familiarity bias given his close association to Rutgers. You'd really have to struggle to paint it any other way.

I just refuse to believe that there was literally no one else in all of NCAA football that any of their comprehensive scouting said was a better value for their team at #91 than a guy who projects to the #4 safety on the 2013 squad. BB is human with the same human biases and decision-making flaws of all the rest of us, and he fell victim to one with this pick.

I mean at the end of the day, who cares, it's just a third round football pick, right?

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I had season tickets for the Pats when Schaffer Stadium opened, voted for J Smith in the Superfoot competition at the track, I have seen all the great QB's from the end of B Layne's and C Connerly's careers. I probably know far more about "how good Brady is" than you ever will sonny. :singing:


I have seen enough bad teams, ownership and coaching to not whine about BB.

A lasting imprint on one's backside from a 10 degrees Fahrenheit aluminum bench IS the President's club of Patriots' fan credibility

 

[Coach42]

No one knows. That's why we look at all the ratings. We wouldn't call Harmon a possible 1st rounder talent. We know better. Please post any rating which showed Harmon in the 5th or earlier. Otherwise, this was a major reach who will make the 53 only because he is a 3rd rounder.

You might be right that the pick is a mistake and that he is terrible but he will not make the roster based solely on being a 3 round pick. If BB is any one thing he is ruthless when it comes to the best man at camp wins the job. Regardless of when selected.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Obviously different teams have different ratings for players, but I'm quite sure when coaches try to gauge perceived league-wide value for players they lean on these types of ratings as well as whatever info is gleaned from their professional peers of other teams.

And a lower-rated safety like Harmon isn't some kind of polarizing player that would be drastically under- or over-valued by different teams, like a talented kid with character concerns or someone like Lattimore you have to project coming back from injury. And even if you're wrong and someone else drafts him, you've only missed out on Duron Harmon, not a high upside type like Lattimore.

IMO, BB was a victim of familiarity bias given his close association to Rutgers. You'd really have to struggle to paint it any other way.

I just refuse to believe that there was literally no one else in all of NCAA football that any of their comprehensive scouting said was a better value for their team at #91 than a guy who projects to the #4 safety on the 2013 squad. BB is human with the same human biases and decision-making flaws of all the rest of us, and he fell victim to one with this pick.

I mean at the end of the day, who cares, it's just a third round football pick, right?

If you were in charge of the Patriots' draft, you would not have elected Duron or at least not at that point in the draft. Ok. You may be proven right after a long enough sample of seasons played. However and obviously, BB and staff are quantifiable in their success. If they made the selection it is a shaky point of view to take that it was a lousy pick until such time that the player proves untenable in the NFL.

Ultimately the draft could just be run by computer. Enter a player "value" as defined by 'everyone', enter additional values on a 1 to 10 scale for each attribute that NFL conventional wisdom (and everyone) says is a good thing or not a good thing to have, the computer spits out a name of the pick that has the best value, select that player. Maybe it would be interesting to see if that kind of rigid selection system would produce successful/better drafts routinely. Until then the leader of the Patriots, BB, selects based on what he and his staff feel is the player that brings the best value to the team, based on their own value system. Given the man's success, the selection must have underlying logic. Not to say this isn't a bit of a head scratcher because it is. And it seems like Duron would have been available later, making a trade down seem the appropriate course of action. Yet, again, if BB is selecting him at the spot he did, there is ample history to allow for a 'wait and see' approach. If Duron ends up being a player, where and why he was selected will be of little importance.

 

[Ifleninwasawizard]

There are really only two explanations that make any sense, imo, regarding this pick at this spot considering you have another pick 11 spots later.

1) What you said above: They heard something or assigned a high probability that someone was going to take him very shortly after the 91st pick.

2) They didn't hear anything and didn't know if someone else was about to take him or not, but absolutely loved the guy to the point they decided they wanted to reduce a slight risk of missing him to zero risk of missing him.

One or the other has to be true, or they wasted, at minimum, 11 spots of value.

Obviously, there is longggg gap between the 102nd pick and the 226th pick where the guy might have been taken if you couldn't move around and grab him. But the 11 spots are what really puzzle me. Why take a guy at 91 when you can have him at 102, unless 1) or 2) above applies? No reason, so one of them had to have applied, now which one was it? I would bet on 2) more than 1), frankly.

There is at least one more option. They initially wanted to trade out from 91, but they didn't get any good enough suitors. By picking Harmon they still have the option of trading down from 102, which could still potentially give them similar value to a trade down from 91. At that point they would be taking a big risk that Harmon would be gone by 226 (or whatever pick that might have acquired between then). By taking him at 91 they might still get their guy and a trade down.

At least I think that makes sense.

 

[nowayback]

Interesting, people who are rutgers fans and draft experts, havent heard of Harmon who played every game for them the last 3 yrs.

 

[gomezcat]

Well, if I have the choice of trusting the opinion of a team whose coach has been involved in 5 Superbowl winning teams, or the opinion of draft 'gurus' not employed by N F L teams, and mostly with good reason, I know whose opinion I trust.

 

[ausbacker]

Interesting, people who are rutgers fans and draft experts, havent heard of Harmon who played every game for them the last 3 yrs.

[B]Player         TKL TFL INT PDF[/B]
D.Swearinger   159 4.5 6.0  15
D.Harmon        99 4.0 6.0  14

Outside of the tackles, Harmon's numbers look comparable to Swearinger's across the past two seasons. Whilst I acknowledge numbers don't tell the whole story given the differences in College Football conferences, that took 5 minutes of digging.

Given the numbers, perhaps Rutgers fans should have been paying more attention.

 

[RayClay]

Interesting, people who are rutgers fans and draft experts, havent heard of Harmon who played every game for them the last 3 yrs.

Even though he was first team all Big East? Oh well, I guess they are the experts.

EDIT: Check that. He was 1st team Big East both 2011 and 2012. May not be a big deal but you'd think an "expert" would know that.

 

[Sparetire]

If we didnt pick him on 91, dont you guys think we could do it in the 102 or one of the 7ths? i really dont see anyone els picking him that "early".

oh well...

 

[stelfans]

Dont get this pick.

 

[ausbacker]

If we didnt pick him on 91, dont you guys think we could do it in the 102 or one of the 7ths? i really dont see anyone els picking him that "early".

oh well...

It's a different situation but apply that same mentality to Tyrann Mathieu. It only takes one team and there may very well have been another team ready to take Harmon had the Patriots not. It's one of those things.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: duron harmon isn't welcome?

I spent close to a decade in Rutgers as and undergrad and grad student.......and even I have no idea who he is!!!

Not sure why in the world BB took him in the THIRD ROUND!!!

That sounds like more of an indictment of you than of him. He's only been one of the starting safeties the past 2 years, played in every game the last 3 and all but one since his freshman year.

(and no, I didn't know who he was until I looked him up. My first reaction was "Duron WHO? " )

 

[DaBruinz]

Understand your exasperation. Getting Harmon with the Pats' own 3rd round pick at 91 (the pick that was offered to Pittsburgh for Sanders) -- that is a wasted pick. If BB loved Harmon, he could have signed the kid as an undrafted rookie free agent, and the kid who NO ONE knows, would have happily signed. But for BB to claim, Harmon represents good value at 91, is for him to be a bit disingenuous. NO TEAM was expected to draft him in the 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th rounds. Most experts had him as a "priority free agent". Kipper had him as his 42nd ranked Safety for Pete's sake. How can it be GOOD "VALUE" when the Patriots could have in all likelihood, had him as an uncontested free agent signing for a $25,000 signing bonus. He may have a 3.8 gpa but last I checked that does not make him a good football player. If he came in as an undrafted player, he would then represent good value if he earned a roster spot based on TC competition. As it is, if Harmon is good value, BB is admitting Tavon Wilson (another unknown, he positioned as a "value pick" last year) was a mistake after his rookie year.

I'm sorry. I believe BB is a great coach. I believe he is a good GM. But I am not buying into investing a valuable 3rd round on an unknown when a number of attractive WRs like Bailey, Patton, Rodgers or any number of highly productive DL and OL are available.

Draft picks are a scarce commodity. When you use them to grab a 1st or 2nd round highly rated, productive players who fall to you in the late third round, that is a VALUE PICK. Picking someone who likely would have been undrafted in round 3-- that on draft day called A REACH (politely).

The problem with this thought process is that you are completely ignoring how the Patriots have gone about scouting players and setting up their draft board since 2001. The Patriots do not use the Blesto or National scouting services. They have their own scouting department. And it's that scouting department that does all the research and what not.

You are basing your "highly rated productive players" crap on the amateur websites such as NFLDraftScout/CBSSports.com, DraftCountdown, HuddleReport and even the beloved New England Patriots Draft.com guys. They are all amateurs at this. None of them work for Blesto or National. The initial ratings those places use are from the spring Blesto/National reports that come out for the next year's draft class. Then they hype prospects/ project them based on SWAGS, really. Unless things have changed, the only one who ever got the All-22 and watched them all was Joel Buschbaum. He was the most highly regarded "Draftnik" out there and no one comes close to him currently.

For you to say that no team was looking at Harmon is a load of BS. You don't know that. And a perfect example is Logan Mankins. People were all up in arms about the Pats taking Mankins at the end of round 1 in 2005. Yet, come to find out, that the 49ers were trying to move up in round 2 to take him. And he's become a pretty amazing guard.

Value is based, not on how WE perceive the player's worth compared to the rest of the draftees, but on how the TEAM perceives the player's worth to them. And that is what you need to remember.

 

[DaBruinz]

True Story.

Too many Patriot Fans think it's Blasphemy to say that Coach Bill screwed up.

Coach Bill is AWESOME.

But he IS Human.

And he DOES screw up.

Just ask Kevin OConnell.

...or Ryan Mallett.

...or Derick Burgess.

...or Ras I Dowling.

...or Tavon Wilson.

Coach Bill is the BEST.

He just isn't PERFECT.

And it's actually OK to say so.

How were Mallett and Wilson screw-ups? Seriously. Mallett has beat out the competition to be Brady's back-up, instilling enough confidence in the Pats that they didn't need to carry a 3rd QB.

Wilson had a respectable rookie season,.

Just because they weren't your binkies doesn't mean the Pats screwed up. That's pretty friggin arrogant to say.

 

[RayClay]

I do think BB largely goes after players he wants and does what it takes to get them. He may have a bunch of players he wants graded about equally, but sometimes by the lower rounds (and it is a crap shoot from about the 4th on) he will have reasons he wants one player over the rest that has nothing to do with "ratings".

He wants secondary depth that can work together, and players he knows are vastly preferable to some guy rated in the 4th, 5th or whatever.

He wants the 2 Rutgers guys. If he misses on Duron, and we have no idea what 32 F.O.s thought about him, getting the best Mel Kiper ranked safety is not the same thing at all.

So, with the 5th pick in round four to mop up anything he might have missed, he takes the unique player he wants instead of some unknown safety that wasn't good enough to be drafted in 3 rounds anyway.

 

[DaBruinz]

No one knows. That's why we look at all the ratings. We wouldn't call Harmon a possible 1st rounder talent. We know better. Please post any rating which showed Harmon in the 5th or earlier. Otherwise, this was a major reach who will make the 53 only because he is a 3rd rounder.

All the ratings by sites that have no direct affiliation with any football team in the NFL. Where most of the different people have little or no training on what is and what is not good technique. Who don't actually get to see the All-22 films.

Guess what? None of it matters because the Pats don't even use Blesto or National. You know, the 2 scouting services that actually DO get paid to scout and rate potential draft picks. And, last I looked, they get things wrong also.

 

[DaBruinz]

Ignore rating if you wish. In that case, are we to rely on your expert analysis of the quality of the player?

No. One would imagine that you'd rely on the expert analysis of the Patriots scouting staff. But, if you'd rather use ratings by sites that have no bearing on the NFL and are unaffiliated with the NFL, then so be it.

 

[DaBruinz]

In a sense, it doesn't matter much for 2013. He will replace Ebner and likely be inactive. That's fine. The choice isn't a failure until year 3 or whenever he is cut. Dobson and Ryan can replace Ebner on special teams.

However, it is indeed a terrible pick in that he obviously could have been drafted at 102 and there were many better choices at 91.

Clearly you missed that Ebner played in nearly every game last year and was the 2nd best special teams player. So if Harmon is replacing him, then Harmon will be playing on game day.