**Week 7 Betting (Week 6 Results)** Dingleberry Casino

[Dingleberry]

I am going to include the Week 6 Results and the Week 7 Betting in one thread this week. Lots of new betting opportunities will be introduced this week.

The standings below will show your current rank, last week's rank in parenthesis, last week's betting record, money won or lost last week, and then current bank roll. @venecol was anxious for me to update the standings for good reason as he has retaken 1st place. @Ring 6 had the best money week with a +$10k. Lots of fluidity in the standings and a long season still to go!

Week 6 Standings:

1. @venecol (3) 6-2 +6k $76,000
2. @Chevy (1) 2-4 -2500 $75,000
3. @irishfanatic (2) 4-6 +2k $74,000
4. @Froob (4) 1-1 +2k $70,000
5. @Ring 6 (9) 4-3 +10k $67,500
6. @BaconGrundleCandy (6) 5-5 Even $64,000
7. @pazrul72 (8) 3-3 Even $60,000
8. DIngleberry (5) 3-4 -8k $59,000
9. @borisman (11) 2-3 -2k $54,000
9. @PatsFanInVa (15) 1-0 +4k $54,000
11 @everlong (13) 3-3 Even $52,000
12 @Pat the Pats Fan (15) 2-2 +3k $51,000
13 @mgcolby (7) 1-4 -15k $48,000
14 @JarOfMayo51 (12) 1-3 -6k $47,500
15 @ArchAngel007 (10) 0-5 -10k $46,500
16 @The Trickster (16) 2-1 +3500 $42,500
17 @Calhoun44 (14) 1-3 -16k $34,000
18 @Ford Prefect (17) 0-1 -3k $24,000
19 @Boston Boxer (18) 1-0 +6k $22,000
20 @sb1 (19) 1-4 -8k $4,000
21 @Dragda (20) 1-1 +500 $3,500
22 @1960Pats (21) 1-0 +900 $1,900

Week 7 odds and new betting option will be on the next post...

 

[Dingleberry]

Ok, after discussion with some of you, the DIngleberry Casino has decided to open more betting options. The one type of betting I would have liked to have added was allowing betting on 1st half/2nd half lines and over/under. However, I decided copying the lines for each half of each game (not to mention looking up the scoring for each half of each game to tally bets) was going to be a bit too much. However, the following type of betting will be added starting this week. I will offer a complete explanation of the betting for those who are not familiar (the non gambling derelicts, I call you).

* Betting individual games based on the lines. This will continue as we have been doing.

* Betting individual games over/under. This will continue as we have been doing.

* Teaser Bets. Ok, here is where it might get confusing for some. I will explain as best I can for those not familiar. If you have any questions, ask me, @BaconGrundleCandy, @mgcolby, and many others who are familiar with this. We will be allowing 6 point teaser and 7 point teaser bets for 2, 3, or 4 games only. If you select three games in a 6 point teaser, each of those games' spreads move 6 points in your favor. So if you pick 3 favorites with spreads of -7, -5, and -3, those spreads are now -1, +1, and +3 for you! Great deal right? The catch is all 3 games must hit for you to win the teaser. So if you bet $10k on the teaser and 2 of the 3 games hit your spread, you lose it all. A push in any game will also result in a loss. It is all or nothing. You can bet underdogs as well. A +15 dog could be +21 in this scenario. The payoffs for teaser bets will be the following:

6 Point Teaser: 2 games (+100) / 3 games (+180) / 4 games (+300)
7 Point Teaser: 2 games (-120) / 3 games (+150) / 4 games (+200)

A plus number means that is what you would win for every $100 bet. So, +100 is even odds. +180 means a $10k bet would net $18k.
A minus number means how much you would need to bet to win $100. So, -120 would mean a $120 bet would only win $100. A $12k bet would net a $10k win.

Player Prop Bets: I will also be posting individual player prop bets each week. These will work like Over/Under bets. For example: Player X - 235.5 passing yards. You will bet over or under. I will be selecting prop bets that are virtually even odds so I don't have too much +140 or -130 calculations to do. We'll keep that for the Teasers. So these will be even money bets. If a player is inactive for whatever reason, the bet will be a push. No money lost. If the player is active for the game, but the player does not play for whatever reason, you lose.

Many of the weekly player prop bets are not available early in the week. As a result, I will post game odds and o/u each Wednesday as I have been doing. Player prop bets will be added by Friday P.M. each week. Budget your bank roll each week if you want to bet those as well.

Week 7 Lines on the next post....

 

[Dingleberry]

Week 7: Home teams listed last

Broncos / Browns (-3.0) 42.5
Bengals / Ravens (-6.5) 47
Panthers / Giants (+3.0) 43
Jets / Patriots (-7.0) 42.5
Chiefs / Titans (+5.5) 57.5
Redskins / Packers (-9.5) 49
Falcons / Dolphins (+2.5) 47.5
Lions / Rams (-15.0) 50.5
Eagles / Raiders (-3.5) 49
Bears / Bucs (-12.5) 47
Texans / Cardinals (-17.0) 47.5
Colts / 49ers (-4.0) 44
Saints / Seahawks (+5.0) 43


Player Prop Bets - All are Over/Under bets and Even odds. Prop bets cannot be used in Teasers.

Rushing Yards:

Damien Harris 64.5
Leonard Fournette 64.5
Jalen Hurts. 42.5
Cordarelle Patterson 35.5
Tua Tagovailoa 13.5
Mac Jones 3.5

Receiving Yards:

Cooper Kupp 94.5
Mike Evans 62.5
Jakobi Meyers 60.5
Corey Davis 53.5
Hunter Henry 37.5
Nelson Agholar 34.5
Kendrick Bourne 26.5

Receptions:

Jakobi Meyers 5.5
Jamison Crowder 4.5
Corey Davis 3.5
Hunter Henry 3.5
Nelson Agholar 2.5

Passing Yards:

Patrick Mahomes 325.5
Tom GOAT Brady 304.5
Sam Darnold 257.5
Mac Jones 246.5
Zach Wilson 228.5
Justin Fields 218.5

 

[Guts]

0-5 Geeeze

 

[everlong]

Broncos / Browns (-3.0) 42.5
Bengals / Ravens (-6.5) 47
Panthers / Giants (+3.0) 43
Jets / Patriots (-7.0) 42.5
Chiefs / Titans (+5.5) 57.5
Redskins / Packers (-9.5) 49
Falcons / Dolphins (+2.5) 47.5
Lions / Rams (-15.0) 50.5
Eagles / Raiders (-3.5) 49
Bears / Bucs (-12.5) 47
Texans / Cardinals (-17.0) 47.5
Colts / 49ers (-4.0) 44
Saints / Seahawks (+5.0) 43

Browns -3 for 5000
Broncos/Browns 42.5 over for 5000
Colts/49ers 44 over for 5000
WFT/Packers 49 under for 5000
Bengals +6.5 for 5000
Dolphins +2.5 for 5000

 

[Dragda]

I take the redskins ( or wft ) to cover for $1000

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Week 7: Home teams listed last

Broncos / Browns (-3.0) 42.5
Bengals / Ravens (-6.5) 47
Panthers / Giants (+3.0) 43
Jets / Patriots (-7.0) 42.5
Chiefs / Titans (+5.5) 57.5
Redskins / Packers (-9.5) 49
Falcons / Dolphins (+2.5) 47.5
Lions / Rams (-15.0) 50.5
Eagles / Raiders (-3.5) 49
Bears / Bucs (-12.5) 47
Texans / Cardinals (-17.0) 47.5
Colts / 49ers (-4.0) 44
Saints / Seahawks (+5.0) 43


***Player Prop Bets will be added to this post by Friday PM***

Wow look at that Cardinals line. Nah. Oh okay.

Texans taking 17 for 1k
Bucs to cover 12.5 for 2,500
Patriots to cover for 10K

 

[Dingleberry]

Wow look at that Cardinals line. Nah. Oh okay.

Texans taking 17 for 1k
Bucs to cover 12.5 for 2,500
Patriots to cover for 10K

I am eying the Texans game because supposedly Tyrod Taylor might be back. If he is back, I bet the line jumps a few points in Vegas. We have the line locked in at this casino.

The Texans are a different team with him at QB. Not good, but better.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I am eying the Texans game because supposedly Tyrod Taylor might be back. If he is back, I bet the line jumps a few points in Vegas. We have the line locked in at this casino.

The Texans are a different team with him at QB. Not good, but better.

I don't care who you are, 17 points is 17 points. Good T-Mobile tip though

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Ok, after discussion with some of you, the DIngleberry Casino has decided to open more betting options. The one type of betting I would have liked to have added was allowing betting on 1st half/2nd half lines and over/under. However, I decided copying the lines for each half of each game (not to mention looking up the scoring for each half of each game to tally bets) was going to be a bit too much. However, the following type of betting will be added starting this week. I will offer a complete explanation of the betting for those who are not familiar (the non gambling derelicts, I call you).

* Betting individual games based on the lines. This will continue as we have been doing.

* Betting individual games over/under. This will continue as we have been doing.

* Teaser Bets. Ok, here is where it might get confusing for some. I will explain as best I can for those not familiar. If you have any questions, ask me, @BaconGrundleCandy, @mgcolby, and many others who are familiar with this. We will be allowing 6 point teaser and 7 point teaser bets for 2, 3, or 4 games only. If you select three games in a 6 point teaser, each of those games' spreads move 6 points in your favor. So if you pick 3 favorites with spreads of -7, -5, and -3, those spreads are now -1, +1, and +3 for you! Great deal right? The catch is all 3 games must hit for you to win the teaser. So if you bet $10k on the teaser and 2 of the 3 games hit your spread, you lose it all. A push in any game will also result in a loss. It is all or nothing. You can bet underdogs as well. A +15 dog could be +21 in this scenario. The payoffs for teaser bets will be the following:

6 Point Teaser: 2 games (+100) / 3 games (+180) / 4 games (+300)
7 Point Teaser: 2 games (-120) / 3 games (+150) / 4 games (+200)

A plus number means that is what you would win for every $100 bet. So, +100 is even odds. +180 means a $10k bet would net $18k.
A minus number means how much you would need to bet to win $100. So, -120 would mean a $120 bet would only win $100. A $12k bet would net a $10k win.

Player Prop Bets: I will also be posting individual player prop bets each week. These will work like Over/Under bets. For example: Player X - 235.5 passing yards. You will bet over or under. I will be selecting prop bets that are virtually even odds so I don't have too much +140 or -130 calculations to do. We'll keep that for the Teasers. So these will be even money bets. If a player is inactive for whatever reason, the bet will be a push. No money lost. If the player is active for the game, but the player does not play for whatever reason, you lose.

Many of the weekly player prop bets are not available early in the week. As a result, I will post game odds and o/u each Wednesday as I have been doing. Player prop bets will be added by Friday P.M. each week. Budget your bank roll each week if you want to bet those as well.

Week 7 Lines on the next post....

General rule on teasers is never go past 0. So if you're thinking about teasing a fav like -3 you're losing value. You're basically admitting it's looking like a close game, so take more points as opposed to getting a fav +2 or 3.

 

[Dingleberry]

General rule on teasers is never go past 0. So if you're thinking about teasing a fav like -3 you're losing value. You're basically admitting it's looking like a close game, so take more points as opposed to getting a fav +2 or 3.

Great point. Another common question is why 7 points and 6 points, not much difference.

If you have a -9.5 favorite, you go with the 7 point teaser every time to get -2.5 instead of -3.5. Since 3 point victories are so common, it is worth getting that extra point. So if the Packers are part of my teaser this week, I am going with 7 points from their -9.5. The Bucs are -12.5. For them, 6 points gets them to -6.5, below the other common victory margin of 7. Not worth getting the spread to -5.5.

Of course, if my teaser is Packers and Bucs, might be better to go with the 7 point teaser because of the Packers spread.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

REGULAR BETS:
Chiefs / Titans (+5.5) 57.5 Titans $1,000
Falcons / Dolphins (+2.5) 47.5 Falcons $1,000


SEVEN POINT TEASER: $15,000
Texans / Cardinals (-17.0) Texans +24
Bears / Bucs (-12.5) Bucs -5.5
Redskins / Packers (-9.5) Packers -2.5

 

[Dingleberry]

One thing I forgot to mention in the Teaser Betting explanation is that Over/Under bets can be part of a teaser.

An example: You expect the Packers to blow out the Bears but still be low scoring because the Bears won't score much. A 7 point teaser on the Packers and the Under would move the line from -9.5 to -2.5, and the O/U from 49 to 56!

 

[Dingleberry]

REGULAR BETS:
Chiefs / Titans (+5.5) 57.5 Titans $1,000
Falcons / Dolphins (+2.5) 47.5 Falcons $1,000


SEVEN POINT TEASER: $15,000
Texans / Cardinals (-17.0) Texans +24
Bears / Bucs (-12.5) Bucs -5.5
Redskins / Packers (-9.5) Packers -2.5

For those who are looking for our first live example. This teaser pays at +150. So the 15k bet will pay off $22,500 if the teaser hits. We are about to see some movement in the standings , I think!

Cardinals 35
Texans 10

 

[JarOfMayo51]

This teaser pays at +150. So the 15k bet will pay off $22,500 when the teaser hits

you had a typo in your post, but i fixed it

 

[venecol]

Great point. Another common question is why 7 points and 6 points, not much difference.

If you have a -9.5 favorite, you go with the 7 point teaser every time to get -2.5 instead of -3.5. Since 3 point victories are so common, it is worth getting that extra point. So if the Packers are part of my teaser this week, I am going with 7 points from their -9.5. The Bucs are -12.5. For them, 6 points gets them to -6.5, below the other common victory margin of 7. Not worth getting the spread to -5.5.

Of course, if my teaser is Packers and Bucs, might be better to go with the 7 point teaser because of the Packers spread.

You're a gambling derelict. Lol

 

[venecol]

General rule on teasers is never go past 0. So if you're thinking about teasing a fav like -3 you're losing value. You're basically admitting it's looking like a close game, so take more points as opposed to getting a fav +2 or 3.

So you're saying not a good idea to pick a dog in a teaser bet?

 

[pazrul72]

This is a marathon not a race so I’m ok basically breaking even so far so the last week of the year I can go big and then go home because I’ve been surprisingly bad at this. Basically a monkey throwing darts should be able to go 50/50. So keeping my 6 bets at 1k each I got this week

Browns (-3) 1 k
Pats/Jete (42.5) over 1 k
Chiefs/Tits (57.5) under 1k
Raiders (-3.5) 1k
Bears (+12.5) 1k
Texans (+17) 1k

 

[Guts]

Broncos +3 $2000
Bengals +6.5 $2000
Chiefs/Titans Over 57.5 $2000
Falcons -2 $2000
Raiders -3.5 $2000

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

So you're saying not a good idea to pick a dog in a teaser bet?

No, actually dogs are great imo since there are so many close games, back-door covers and even when teams win big it's hard to beat teams by 17-20 points in the NFL (flags, teams looking ahead, running the ball late in the game, injuries, playing down to competition). So yeah I'd rather have some points but also like teasing down some favs.

Just saying I'd rather tease the dog from say a 3-4 point spread instead of teasing the fav passed the 0 mark. Again essentially you're saying saying it'll be a close game. If that's the case would you rather have 2-3 points or 9-10?

Like @Dingleberry said teasing passed some key #'s are always good. I like the going to basically 0 with the Ravens but also like the +13.5 from Cinci who's been punching above their weight. I like going down from 6.5 - 7 to close to 0 for favs.

I always like teasing the home dog getting the most points. Even taking the points straight up but teasing the highest home dog has been profitable in the past.

I might have not a few #'s wrong it's late after work but these would be examples of 7 pt teasers

Broncos ( +10) / Browns (+4.0)
Bengals (+13.5)/ Ravens (+0.5)
Panthers (+4.0)/ Giants (+10.0)
Jets (+14) / Patriots (-)
Chiefs (+1.5) / Titans (+12.5)
Redskins (+16.5) / Packers (-2.5)
Falcons (+4.5) / Dolphins (+9.5)
Lions (+22) / Rams (-8.0)
Eagles (10.5) / Raiders (+3.5)
Bears (19.5) / Bucs (-5.5)
Texans (+24) / Cardinals (-10.0)
Colts (+11) / 49ers (+3.0)
Saints (+2) / Seahawks (+12.0)

I obviously deleted the totals out but probably shouldn't have.

From PJ Walsh \ Action. Network ...
Forty-one points has been the most common combined score at 3.82% of NFL games, followed by 40 (3.75%), 51 (3.67%) 47 (3.45%) and 44 (3.37%).

As you can see, over/unders moving to and through the 40-41 range have been incredibly significant from a line value standpoint in recent seasons.

For the sake of utility, here are frequencies of total points scored in NFL games since 2015, sorted by most to least common.

41	3.82%
40	3.75%
51	3.67%
47	3.45%
44	3.37%
43	3.30%
50	3.30%
55	3.22%
33	3.07%
37	3.00%
34	2.85%
49	2.62%
46	2.55%
57	2.55%
36	2.47%
45	2.40%
48	2.40%
54	2.25%
39	2.17%
52	1.95%
42	1.80%
38	1.72%
35	1.65%
58	1.50%
53	1.42%
32	1.35%
62	1.35%
31	1.20%
56	1.20%
63	1.20%
59	1.12%
61	1.05%
60	0.82%

I've been treading water, losing a few bucks the past few years but teasers are always good, books hate them. Props too, those have changed the game. Some people are excellent in win totals.

Great point. Another common question is why 7 points and 6 points, not much difference.

If you have a -9.5 favorite, you go with the 7 point teaser every time to get -2.5 instead of -3.5. Since 3 point victories are so common, it is worth getting that extra point. So if the Packers are part of my teaser this week, I am going with 7 points from their -9.5. The Bucs are -12.5. For them, 6 points gets them to -6.5, below the other common victory margin of 7. Not worth getting the spread to -5.5.

Of course, if my teaser is Packers and Bucs, might be better to go with the 7 point teaser because of the Packers spread.

Exactly, this is huge and the biggest reason you tease. Passing those #'s is key. Those are probably the two biggest things to look for with teasers. Get the most value you can / pass those key #'s.









(Don't listen to me I have no idea what I'm talking about)